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Still no light at end of tunnel for NZ's service sector
New Zealand's service sector took a further hit in April, suffering its 13th consecutive month of contraction, the BNZ Capital-Business NZ Performance of Services Index (PSI) showed.
April's PSI score of 43.7 was the second lowest since the series began in 2007, down from 47.1 in March. A score below 50 represents contraction in the sector.
The tourism industry was facing a "torrid time," BNZ Head of Research Stephen Toplis said, as both domestic and foreign revenues were "both under threat."
"The tourism industry is of fundamental importance to the strength of the broader New Zealand services sector given its reach across a multitude of differing businesses including transport, accommodation, restaurants and cafés and the wider retail sector," Toplis said.
"Accordingly, the headwinds that tourism currently faces are proving to be a substantial headache for the economy as a whole," he said.
"Domestically, it's clear that household spending is under substantial pressure, as evidenced by the sharp falls we are seeing in total retail sales. Unfortunately, in this sort of environment, it is discretionary spending that takes the biggest hit and that includes holidays."
"While the weakness in the domestic economy poses its own risk, the international situation is even more problematic. First and foremost the decision to travel to New Zealand is influenced by the well-being of folk in their home economies. As a proxy for this GDP growth is as good a measure as any. And this is where things get very ugly indeed."
Toplis noted that the Australian economy was faring better than many, and that the exchange rate between New Zealand and its Tasman neighbour was more favourable to the Australians, who would be looking for cheaper holidays closer to home. He also noted that Chinese visitor numbers were "hanging in there."
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However, New Zealand's tourism industry was getting "absolutely clobbered by the demise of the UK and US economies which provided 11.0% and 8.0% of our tourists respectively," Toplis said. "With the ongoing problems that these countries face, more of the same can be expected."
"We are seeing the first signs that the worst of the global growth phase is behind us. Certainly the pace of downgrades is slowing substantially which simply has to happen before any genuine pick up can occur. However, with households remaining under pressure for some time to come, it may yet be a long time before folk in the tourism sector can have another day in the sun. Roll on the Rugby World Cup!"
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Alex - can you just
Alex - can you just recap what percentage of our total GDP/economy our service sector contributes? I seem to recall its about 40% is that right?
Hi Andy, I think its
Hi Andy,
I think its more around two-thirds. NZ$93 b out of out of NZ$135 billion. (2008 March year)
Was 70% in the Dec quarter
This from table 2.1 in Stats NZ Dec GDP release. GDP by broad industry group, in 95/96 prices.
Hmmm. Not good.
Alex
Alex and Andy , Yes
Alex and Andy , Yes Alex Hmmmmmmmmm not good (in all sectors of the GDP?)
A very scary broad brush picture is unfolding for the economy ..if and independent body could collate the scenarios facing service industry, the dairy industry,housing industry and consumer citizenry spending .
The scenario of idle hands in empty pockets will mean GDP = Gross Domestic Poverty...wake up JK, ....idle hands and empty pockets will bring social unrest....it always has in the past!!!!
There are none so blind as those who cannot see...............
Well we can all dream
Well we can all dream of becoming richer by services alone given the wage anomalies. Trainee doctors are paid less than a chippie. Mediocrity rules in most aspects of NZ life. NZ is expensive to live and service industry profit margins are way too high. We do not have our own capital to support the service industry or houses and highly indebted as a country. Short term profit, long term pain. It just started"¦
Several consistent comments from Tourists
Several consistent comments from Tourists ..freinds visiting NZ
1/' Wanting to come to NZ ' is good
2/Getting here a little more expensive..mainly due to our location, 1/ "still wants us to come"
3/Accommodation is OK but a little on the expensive side
4/To see anything, is very expensive...seems they are milking for every penny.
3/ and 4/ make a NZ holiday for Kiwis often more expensive than elsewhere in the Pacific basin.
The tourist industry has been thru boom times , profit taking, charging what the market is prepared to spend. Now things are tight, the whole pricing structure has got to be re thought thru, from a totally different perspective.
And this applies to any industry in a recession.
The question is , can a generation who has grown up in the biggest boom /comfortable time in history, change their basic thinking patterns?
I very much suspect the
I very much suspect the NZ tourism industry is going to be suffering from over-capacity issues from now on in. The industry expanded to where it is now riding on the back of what can now be seen as the one-off global 'boom' of 1995-2007. Those times are not about to re-occur and as such the industry has capacity which will simply not get used. From being one of our 'growth' success stories of the past 10 years I suspect NZ tourism now moves into a longer term slump. I recall seeing an article recently that suggested something like one third of South Island accomodation providers are up for sale? I am not surprised. To cap it off it should be clear to anyone watching the price of oil that any meaningful global economy recovery is going to trigger soaring oil prices (with all the effects that has on long-haul travel), so tourism to my mind gets squeezed at both ends.
The oil price - the great big elephant in the room none of the economists dare not talk about. Granted $10 of the present price is based on largely unfounded green shoots mania, but here we sit close to the bottom of the worst recession since the 1930s and yet oil sits reasonably comfortably at prices that in 2003 and 2004 would have been seen as amazingly high..........makes you think (or not, if your an economist).
"makes you think (or not,
"makes you think (or not, if your an economist)."
I like that.
Its economists that sell off railways and forestry, because they have stock pile of machinery....then Wellington gets hit with a big earthquake, and CD have to now rely on a few bits of machinery from the local tip. Then complain why their family has died because aid couldnt get to them.
They cant see the Forrest for the trees.....
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