@POP sorry but Bernards thoughts and those like mine have always been based on sound finanicals and fundamentals. Just becasue a blip has occurred (and most likely a statistical one at that) does not mean the end result won't change.

Yes it is a good time to buy compared to the last 2-3 years but doesn't mean it won't get better.

And please don't mention common sense and NZ house prices in the same sentence. They bear no resemblance....

If the price of something goes up 100% in a 2-3 year timeframe, and then back 10-15% with no valid economic reasons (i.e rents going up, incomes keeping pace, large inflation) then its a speculative bubble and like all before them will end in tears. The best thing for kiwis is for prices either to drop another 20-30% at least or stay flat for 5-6 years. Houses produce nothing, and divert capital from where its required.

The sooner we realise this the better in the longtem.

@POP -

Houses are not investments. And the problem with NZ is that we think they are, and let them drive the economy. I have no problem with building houses, selling houses and all the associated employment that goes with property as such (construction and so forth) but the insane idea that buying a house for $400K, seeing it go to $600k and then borrowing all the extra supposed wealth from overseas somehow benefits us a nation. Esp when all those interest repayments for the next 10-20 years leave the country.

It is bubble and unsustainable and until it corrects itself no-one wins. I would prefer property to stay stable and prices not rise for the next 5 years, but as long as kiwis have the stupid idea that houses prices always go up and spend that imaginery wealth (that got us into this mess) then the worse it will get. The madness either ends now or later with more carnage.

And no tall poppy syndrome here. Just a realist who thinks that its crazy for us to buy (on the whole) substandard housing, with rubbish infrastructure at the end of the world for prices/income ratios way higher than most parts of Europe.

We are not a rich country (income/asset wise) so why pretend to be one. The credit card bill has been overused for 30 years and sooner or later so-one has to pay the bill.

And yes I have owned rental properties etc, bought and sold land and so forth. But just becuase i was part of the maddness at one point doesn't mean I condone it or didnt' see where it was all going.

The long term interest rates are down by about 2%. I dont think the current low rates are the medians and these rates will prevail for long. Assuming that a 300K property has an interest advantage of 2% for the next 3 years, the break-even price adjustment can be about $12,000. But the market reacts much more than $12,000 in terms of price. The root cause of the unrealistic increase in house prices ocurred in the past can be largely attributed to the greed driven excessive lending by banks, which goes beyond the rental returns and income based affordability. banks can always find a 'model' to support their actions but they do not fit the logic or commonsense.

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