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Housing market volumes and prices jump in March, REINZ says (update 4)
Both the median selling price and the volume of homes sold in March rose from February, figures released by the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand (REINZ) show. There were 6,694 sales over the month, up from 5,228 in February. The median price was NZ$335,000 - up from NZ$330,000. (Update 4 to include proportion of houses sold in various price brackets, and that there was a decrease in the proportion of houses sold for less than NZ$400,000 in March from February.) The median price was still down from NZ$349,000 in March 2008 and 4.8% down from its peak in November 2007, while the number of sales in March was the highest for any month since November 2007. However REINZ President Mike Elford said that while the figures were cause for "cautious optimism", it was still too early to predict a recovery. 
"We need to read the figures in the context of December, January and February figures being light months in terms of volume," Elford said. "And while there is certainly a significant return to healthier numbers, we also need to be mindful we are now coming into a period of seasonal drop off in sales."
Median days to sell nationally fell from 62 in February to 44 in March, REINZ said. In Auckland it fell from 56 to 38. The median selling price in Auckland rose from NZ$421,500 in February to NZ$435,000 in March. In Wellington it remained stable (up NZ$1,000) at NZ$376,000 as with Christchurch at NZ$290,000. 
The median selling price rose from February in six of the 12 nationwide areas surveyed. Alongside Auckland and Wellington, there were median price rises in Northland (up NZ$6,000), Central Otago Lakes (up NZ$10,000), Otago (up NZ$7,000) and Southland (up NZ$2,000). The more central parts of the country saw falls in the median selling price in March. The median selling price in March 2009 was down from March 2008 for all regions except Taranaki and Nelson/Marlborough. The proportion of houses sold for less than NZ$400,000 fell from 66% in February to 64% in March, while the proportion sold between NZ$400,000 and NZ$599,999 rose from 22% to 24% of total houses sold. The amount sold between NZ$600,000 and NZ$999,999 rose from 9% to 10%, and the proportion over NZ$1 million fell from 3% to 2%. See the chart here. The REINZ numbers contrast with the Quotable Value figures released earlier today, showing the house price index had fallen 10.1% from its peak.
Bugger.. there I was hoping
Bugger.. there I was hoping the increased sales where at the bottom end of the market.. lowering the median.. but no t so..
And they just tried to
And they just tried to recall their report...
Why do they continue to
Why do they continue to churn out a "days to sell" figure when everyone and their dog knows such a stat is rubbish. ?
Bernard / Alex - according
Bernard / Alex - according to their figures Auckland's median house price is now almost exactly the same in March 2009 as March 2008
Whats happened to the 10% drop that QV have reported?
I mean this is a huge difference
clarification please, this is important
QV Prices are late.. based
QV Prices are late.. based on confimed sales through Land Registry..
ie sales that happened 6-10 weeks previously, that have only just come through.. also teh incl private sales. assuming 6week delay ifrom signing of house sale to moving in/out.
REINZ sales are ones confirmed sold in last 4-5 weeks
Matt in Auck QV's numbers
Matt in Auck
QV's numbers compare houses sold in the last three months versus similar houses in similar areas sold in the same three months a year ago.
REINZ's numbers compare all houses sold in one month compared with all houses sold in previous months. If all houses sold in March were bigger houses in fancier suburbs (or vice versa) than the houses sold in previous months then that can skew the figures.
My only suggestions would be:
1. There has been a big jump in apples for apples prices in March, which is obvious in the REINZ figures, but is disguised in the three month QV numbers by the January and February figures,
2. There has been a jump in sales of expensive houses in fancy suburbs in March in the REINZ figures when compared with previous months,
3. Sales data captured by non-REINZ agents or through private sales are skewing the QV numbers lower. About 90% of house sales are captured in the REINZ data.
My gut feel is something significant happened in March, but this is a late Summer phenomena that will be overwhelmed by higher interest rates, higher unemployment and tighter bank lending through the rest of 2009.
cheers
Bernard
How is anyone supposed to
How is anyone supposed to make sense of these statistics??
REINZ says national average house prices are up in March to $335,000 while QV says they are down 9.3% to $378,000. Both articles from todays Herald.
Help please!
Lets just hope all those
Lets just hope all those investors buying rentals this month find it just a bit harder than normal to rent out than normall...
Lets watch the number of rentals on teh market.. see if it increases
Dean
Funny how REINZ.. can get
Funny how REINZ.. can get these figures out in 9 days from start of month... often it is 15-17 days..
Bet they are hoping to stir sales over the easter weekend
Matt Nolan over at http://www.tvhe.co.nz/
Matt Nolan over at http://www.tvhe.co.nz/ points out that March last year included Easter, whereas March this year didn't have Easter. This makes March this year look much better than last year, given it didn't have a 'missing weekend' and two less business days.
cheers
Bernard
In Tauranga the March boom
In Tauranga the March boom was impressive and there is nothing left to buy in certain price ranges. There are very few new listings coming on and people are putting their prices up as you would expect. If the number of listings doesn't improve then prices here will rapidly return to peak values. Spec builders haven't been very active here over the past year and there is now a supply/demand problem due to Tauranga's ever growing population. Auckland must have much the same problem.
Perhaps the much maligned Tony Alexander is right- the bargains are now gone and prices will start to climb again in the spring.
REINZ data is the sales
REINZ data is the sales in the month(all S/P agreements signed in March, for example), QV data is the sattlement dates for three month(Jan to March, 2009).
Let's hope you're right, housebuyer.
Let's hope you're right, housebuyer. Because if not, then all hell is going to break loose in spring!( I'm only going on the number of my friends who are waiting "to get out in spring. It's going to be better then"..)
Looks like the Lemmings are
Looks like the Lemmings are getting together again. Crazy times...
Still NZer's financial literacy has always left a lot to be desired....
"...this is a late Summer
"...this is a late Summer phenomena that will be overwhelmed by higher interest rates, higher unemployment and tighter bank lending through the rest of 2009"
Bernard, do you hear yourself? you sound pretty desperate.
Surely with Auckland City's population
Surely with Auckland City's population growth requiring 180 new dwellings to be added to the pool each month (Stats NZ) versus 50 being approved per month for last 6 months (Stats NZ) the REINZ figures are hardly suprising?
Janet- it is very hard
Janet- it is very hard to read what is going on out there. Why are there so few new listings? Is it because people, like your friends, are waiting for the market to bottom out, or is it that there is a genuine supply problem? I guess we will find out! I hope it is the former rather than the latter as I am currently out of the market and now can't find anything I want to buy so I am forced to wait for more listings. But I am concerned it is the latter in Tauranga given how fast the place is growing.
Doesn't Mangawhai (sp) have 13
Doesn't Mangawhai (sp) have 13 years supply of sections on the market? And I seem to remember that Auckland had X number (was it 13?) of months supply up it's sleeve not too many months ago. So there could be a bit of slack to take up yet, Al.
Bernard - perhaps its time
Bernard - perhaps its time we start to acknowledge that we might be wrong
I was a little wrong, and you were a lot wrong (Me: 15-20% drop prediction Bernard: 30% drop prediction Reality: 10% drop, now on the way up again)
Of course its still a little too early to make that call, but it might be the case!!!!
I'm not too bothered either way, as an architect I should benefit from increased confidence in housing
Realist-youll have to shout louder
Realist-youll have to shout louder than that!The sheeple have got their heads well buried in the sand-it so they can keep chanting its not going to happen here!!Mind you Ol Bollard must be to blame for commenting rates would not be going lower-then 2 weeks later blaming everyone else:)
Patience Grasshopper, Matt in Auck!
Patience Grasshopper, Matt in Auck! The closer you get to the trees the harder it is to see the forest. Wasn't it you yesterday that noted there is always a bit of a rise before a big fall....
<i>Dean A Says: April 9th,
Dean A Says:
April 9th, 2009 at 4:07 pm
Funny how REINZ.. can get these figures out in 9 days from start of month"¦ often it is 15-17 days..
You are so right :). They are wanting to get people out and buying this weekend, and I am sure it will work too. If you can say positivie thing one thing about realestate Agent/used Car Salesmen types, they know how to sell and market. eg. getting people to part with their cash.
Yes.. but the key is
Yes.. but the key is jobs.. there are not the jobs falling away like we have heard in the past few months..
If jobs drop like flies... then this will see prices drop.. but i fthey don't...
We'll see another boom before Rugby World Cup
It's too early to call,
It's too early to call, one month can't show a trend, not even two months! Anything else is call 'speculation', where some win, others loose.
Given the economy (local & overseas), not sure where the money might come from to even keep the prices flat!?
I predict, similar to Reserve Bank, 15 - 20% drop, or 25% is real terms at the bottom (not sure when), then steady increases (5- 10%) over the following 5+ years (assuming no world war!).
Sure Janet - around Mangawhai
Sure Janet - around Mangawhai and similar there are plenty of empty subdivisions waiting for the rare purchaser who wants to live there, so presumably prices will drop.
However housing in Auckland tends to be a necessity, not discretionary and there doesn't appear to be any indication of housing oversupply. Even in the much maligned CBD apartment market 4% of the stock is available for rent/purchase, which is what it should be - and there's no chance of anything new being built for years.
"Matt in Auck Says: April
"Matt in Auck Says:
April 9th, 2009 at 4:34 pm
Bernard - perhaps its time we start to acknowledge that we might be wrong
I was a little wrong, and you were a lot wrong (Me: 15-20% drop prediction Bernard: 30% drop prediction Reality: 10% drop, now on the way up again)
Of course its still a little too early to make that call, but it might be the case!!!!
I'm not too bothered either way, as an architect I should benefit from increased confidence in housing"
Matt.. in normal circumstances.. 20-30% may have been right but with OCR dropping as much as it has.. and what has gone on in world.. with money flowing everywhere its hard to pick..
Even this link has not
Even this link has not shown any job losses for a week...
http://www.interest.co.nz/joblosses
maybe we will not get 60000 more job less.. and such more pressure on selling houses
Dean
How much panic buying was
How much panic buying was out there last month with long-term interest rates going up.. has loan approvals dropped in last week? or continued its increase
If a retailer isn't selling
If a retailer isn't selling his wares he discounts them to get things moving. Starts at 10% off, then 25% etc.
Same with money. If the velocity slows, discount it (the OCR). So far we are at the "65% off" level ! ( 8.5% to 3%) And it seem we need more to get the housing market going. I just hope we don't get to the "100% off" stage, like Japan etc. and still have no movemnet in house prices.
There is no doubt that
There is no doubt that there has been a recent bull rally, its funny how bubbles deflate that median chart is starting to look very much like this one I suppose everything will be back to 'normal' soon
http://marketpredict.com/articles/images/bubble-lifecycle.gif
hope this holds true
hope this holds true
Brilliant chart. Looks like we
Brilliant chart.
Looks like we are in the suckers rally alley'
If the chart does ring true, then there is going to be alot of very sick looking 'bargain' hunters.
Perhaps the jump in NZ
Perhaps the jump in NZ housing prices is not a bubble.
A theory. Prior to 2000 and spread of the internet the only people who owned property in NZ were NZ residents. The population was generally stable or negative in terms of growth which kept prices down.
With the advent of the internet, NZ property became an international commodity. Add to that significant and continued immigration and it is possible that prices have corrected upwards rather than bubbled upwards and the old housing data no longer applies to the new reality.
Just a thought.
@housebuyer- Seems like you're saying
@housebuyer-
Seems like you're saying "It's different this time."
stop torturing yourself,cherubs....it is only
stop torturing yourself,cherubs....it is only a minor abberation on a downward curve.
let's call it the optimists curve ,shall we?
people get stirred real quick,
people get stirred real quick, data has major limitations. Will just have to wait and see.
Here's my opinions on why
Here's my opinions on why the March surge was an Indian Summer.
http://www.interest.co.nz/ratesblog/index.php/2009/04/09/opinion-10-reas...
cheers
Bernard
I'd like to know how
I'd like to know how many people believe the official CPI numbers.
I wrote this recently:
A Summary of the Statistical Lies and How they Paint a False Picture
http://www.neuralnetwriter.cylo42.com/node/430
If I am right that the NZ CPI is fiddled in a similar way to the US CPI, then it is very important to look at Real CPI adjusted house prices. I think you might be 'interested' in the last chart of this article:
NZ House Prices versus CPI and Real CPI
http://www.neuralnetwriter.cylo42.com/node/340
Gibber suggested I should post a link to this article here, so I will:
Using the 1929 DOW Crash Timing for Predicting the NZ$JPY
http://www.neuralnetwriter.cylo42.com/node/470
Dead cat bounce :)