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Should you fix your mortgage now or stay floating?

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Investor confidence slumps to record low; bank seen best again

Posted in News

ASB Bank's survey of investor confidence in the December quarter found net confidence slumped to its worst ever level in one of the most volatile quarters in investing history.

The net confidence level, the difference between those positive and negative about the future, plunged to negative 20% from positive 3% in the September quarter. This was the record low level since the survey began in December quarter of 1998 with its previous low of negative 11%.

The survey found investors' preferred bank savings accounts and term deposit accounts to rental property for the second quarter running, breaking a trend of property being the favourite investment choice since 2002.

In the December quarter 18% of investors preferred term deposits, down from 21% in September quarter, while 16% preferred bank savings accounts, unchanged from September.

The proportion who preferred rental property was unchanged at 15%, while the proportion preferring unit trusts and managed funds was unchanged at 10%. Confidence in shares was unchanged at 7%. Confidence in Kiwisaver rose to 6% from 5%.

"This consolidation for term and bank deposits in the fourth quarter may have been cemented because of the retail deposit guarantee scheme", said ASB's Head of Investment Services Jonathan Beale.

"Investors have had a bumpy ride and may be prepared to forsake higher possible returns in some of the more volatile investments in favour of a good night's sleep and a more modest but reliable return," Beale said.

"The attitudes toward shares and managed investments were surprisingly resilient given the turmoil that took place in global share markets over the quarter," he added.

"Despite investor confidence being at the lowest it's been in a decade, hitting the panic button should be avoided for long term investors."

We welcome your help to improve our coverage of this issue. Any examples or experiences to relate? Any links to other news, data or research to shed more light on this? Any insight or views on what might happen next or what should happen next? Any errors to correct?

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9 Comments

This survey is now out

This survey is now out of date - who would have thought interest rates under 6% would be on offer by the end of January. The percentage of respondents that prefer rental properties will skyrocket over the first quarter of 2008 as interest rates plummet and properties become cashflow positive.

Lara, falling interest rates do

Lara, falling interest rates do not make rental properties cashflow positive. I can't see anybody with any cents investing in a falling property market. Savers may not get alot out of deposits at the moment, but its better than a negative cashflow and capital reduction. IMO

Let me guess, you have a home, nearly freehold, and have leveraged into a "investment" property with a negative cashflow to offset tax?

Stevo - what's got your

Stevo - what's got your goat? leave Lara alone. i intend to borrow $1m in the next few months to build up my portfolio. i will get cashflow positive properties, enough at least to pay for themselves. some people race cars or go fishing for a hobby, some people purchase properties, hence the supply to the demand of those who are yet in a position to buy one for themselves. don't say i'm greedy, it's just a hobby, i charge fair rent and several tenants have saved enough whilst staying in our places to then be able to afford their own homes, or another example is another couple just purchased a new $45k car.

To drive the point home - if I can borrow a million for 5 to 7 years at 5 or 6% then why not, as long as it services itself. it's only negatively geared property, leasehold property, and overpriced crap and zero knowledge that gives people grief - along with the tenants we all experience in the apprenticeship of becoming landlord.

in fact give me a couple of million, then i can also provide a roof over the heads of those that choose that avenue, and rescue all those moaning savers by ensuring there still is a market for their savings.

Brent you are onto it

Brent you are onto it mate. Easy to get cashflow positive when interest rates are 5% or less and you can even start to pay off princiipal. Buy when nobody else is and once the recovery comes you laugh your freaking head off! The opportunity to fix for 5 years at low rate and buy properties that have fallen in value only comes along once every 10 years so now is the time to go for it. I am very happy that there is bugger all competition for some superb property opportunities right now.

Fair call brent, but I

Fair call brent, but I will make these points,

Most people don't borrow money for their hobbies, that is so when their hobby crashes they don't find themselves in financial poo.

"if I can borrow a million for 5 to 7 years at 5 or 6% then why not, as long as it services itself"

If the rent can only service the loan, who pays for rates, insurance and depreciation (repairs and maintinance)?

If interest rates go up by the amount that they have come down over the last year during the next 5-7 years how will you service the deficit after coming off the low rates?

I don't think you are greedy, I think you are a speculator, as the only way you can make any $ out of your proposal is by capital gain, and your hope that you have picked the bottom of the housing market.

Good luck with your efforts, I look forward to collecting your interest payments!

Stevo, thanks for your pointers.

Stevo, thanks for your pointers. people out there need to know that. I have a few extra points if you don't mind...

If you have a hobby that costs any money i.e. not just pressing flowers etc, and you also have home mortgage then you do borrow for your hobby - most just don't grasp the fact that any cent not paid on the mortgage but on other fun stuff is borrowed - exponentially in fact...

So if you borrow from the monkey you pay it back many times over - that is being silly. So when your stunt kite or race car crashes, the trip to Fiji is over or the insurance goes up on your new Falcon because you got nipped speeding - that is what I relate to as hobbies crashing...

cashflow positive means cashflow positive i.e. net cash flow - anything else is negative cashflow. if you or anyone else would like a demonstration I will give you $50 for every big red you given to me...

It doesn't matter if the rates go up down or sideways over the next 5 to 7 years if I am locked in - it only matters at the end of the term - it would only matter if I was borrowing more for something else...

Who said I need to make $ out of it...I said it was a hobby, perhaps I can take accept the title long term investor - but speculator - no those are the economists... and I think you missed the point about being cashflow positive : money in =money in which also known as money in...

Lastly, it is more like the tenants interests payments, although I do make the payments to the mortgage with the money paid to me...

And also, thank you for sending good luck for my efforts, it may come in handy on top of all else required to succeed.... like a bonus ball when you just got six lines in lotto...

The big question is how much will a box of bananas cost in ten years. All that NPV stuff... and also if the dollar becomes worthless, I can repay my debt with some dried apricots and half a weeks rent...

Given Britain's on the brink

Given Britain's on the brink of bankrupcy, the financial sector is yet to reveal the effects of Alt-A and other off balance sheet shenanigans, the EU is reintroducing farm produce subsidies, the economic powerhouse of China is in retreat with the rest of the world (and taking the 'lucky country' down with it) - I wonder whether we'll see the NZ subsidiaries of our Aussie owned banks offering millions on sub 5% fixed rate mortagages over 5 or even 3 year terms in the near future?

Russell - looks like we're

Russell - looks like we're it... wishing you well in your opportunities. You got it I know - buy raincoats in summer and sun hats in winter, meanwhile everyone else thinks your daft. Good to see another like minded person is out there...

Brent and Russell, you are

Brent and Russell, you are both very correct with your thinking, however jumping the gun by just looking at the low interest rates may be a little premature. Pay a little more interest but ALOT less capital in 9-18 months or so. Just because it's raining and cold outside doesn't mean it's winter. I'm in the market too and see last years bargins as overpriced purchases today.