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Have your say: Paulson laments banks' reluctance to lend
US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said banks that received capital injections from the US government should start lending again in order to restimulate the US economy back towards growth. Paulson said it was important that banks started to increase their lending as a result of the various stimulus packages provided by the Bush administration, and that the availability of consumer credit had to be freed up. The US government has put US$250 billion toward increasing the capital of American banks and purchased preferred shares in 52 financial institutions. "We have implemented several programs aimed at improving the flow of credit to businesses and consumers, so they can spend and invest and restore our economy," Paulson said in a speech to a Fortune 500 forum. "Most significantly, we devoted US$250 billion to increasing the capital of our banks. A stronger capital base enables banks to take losses as they write down or sell troubled assets. Stronger capitalization is also essential to increasing lending which, although difficult to achieve during times like this, is essential to economic recovery," he said. "We expect banks to increase their lending as a result of these efforts and it is important that they do so." What I think The Northern Hemisphere's bank lending decisionmakers are like rabbits in the headlights with money stuffed in their mouths. They don't trust each other enough to lend to each other and are in full cash conservation mode because they know the de-leveraging tsunami sweeping the globe's property and asset markets has much further to run.
Paulson's lament betrays his impotence. The money being pumped into these banks appears to be disappearing into large black holes in their balance sheets. The ultimate conclusion for Paulson and others is that the world's central banks have to take over the lending themselves. That's exactly what Federal Reserve Governor Ben Bernanke is doing with his Commercial Paper buying spree and his recently announced plans to buy mortgage bonds. It all shows how much of a dead horse the Northern Hemisphere's banking system has become and how much Paulson and Bernanke are having to flog it. Will our Reserve Bank have to do the same? Not at the moment. Our banks have tightened up, but they are still lending to each other and businesses. Your thoughts? Comments below
7 Comments
Isn't the RBNZ already doing
Isn't the RBNZ already doing so by purchasing RMBS?
Dosser, They are sterilising these
Dosser,
They are sterilising these Reverse Repos through the Reserve Bank Bill facility so far.
We'll see how long that lasts. Stephen Hulme at www.omo.co.nz watches this stuff closely.
cheers
Bernard
BOJ (Japan) yesterday made moves
BOJ (Japan) yesterday made moves to directly assist corporates. Nihon Banks are reluctant to lend as they are doubting borrowers ability to repay in the current financial plummet and dwindling order books...even though interest rates are minuscule! No provision has yet been made for small business other than hoping for `trickle down`or regional authority initiatives to provide loans. The`trickle down`the legs is the effect on many small business owners as they suddenly find themselves heading into bankruptcy!
Bit like unfortunate NZ dairy farmers.. the trickle down is not only on the cows` hind legs!
I am not surprised they
I am not surprised they don't want to lend. According to this the price of industrial metals has fallen faster in 4 months than during the worst years of the Great Depression:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/industry/mining/3543370/...
Which is of course not unconnected with the fact that the Baltic Dry Index seems to set new lows almost daily (down a further 20% in a little over 2 weeks). Now down to 700. Is global industry coming to a grinding halt? Take a look at global PMI data from around the world in the last few weeks. Why would banks lend when the risk to capital seems so extreme?
The reason banks don't lend
The reason banks don't lend is not due to a lack of funding. It's due to falling housing. As long as housing keeps falling, mortgage lending is very very risky. It is much safer to squirrel that money away in the central bank which now pays interest on it.
I believe Paulson is very aware, and absolutely criminal, putting on a fake face to pretend he didn't know that the banks would keep the money.
The world has grown very dark.
Its hard to see how
Its hard to see how economies can be debt grown again untill demand and supply match. Bernanke and Paulson seem hell bent on following what failed in Japan from 1990 onwards. Sure, by comparison they're turbo charging their efforts but they're still trying to fix an excessive credit problem by more of the same.
It seems Germany has now decided to distance itself from 'the race to the bottom'. My money is on their tough love working better.
Bernard I have updated the
Bernard
I have updated the RBNZ open market operations chart to reflect today's TAF and reverse RB bill pass. View here:
http://www.omo.co.nz/nz_open_market_operations_lv.gif
It is worth noting a player or more borrowed NZD 250 million longer dated government stock from the RBNZ Repo Facility to cover what I guess are short positions ahead of tomorrow's OCR announcement. They must suspect a substantial cut to steepen the yeild curve. View here:
http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/statistics/govfin/d12/data.html