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Have your say: Key wants bi-partisan wholesale guarantee

Posted in News

National Party Leader John Key announced on Sunday he wanted to work in a bi-partisan way with Labour Prime Minister Helen Clark to extend the deposit guarantee scheme to include wholesale deposits. Helen Clark has reportedly said the existing scheme was fine for now, while Finance Minister Michael Cullen says changes were being considered. Earlier we reported fund managers were considering moving funds to Australia within two to three weeks. Here is the statement from John Key below.

I want to confirm to Helen Clark and her colleagues that the National Party is prepared to work with them to ensure that decisions can be made during this election period, when it would be too easy for politics to get in the way. I also want to convey the importance of our government taking a proactive approach to settling the complex matters that are yet to be resolved. Mr English has been in contact with Dr Cullen today to advise him that I would be making this statement. In two weeks and six days, New Zealanders will cast their votes in a general election. It is possible that the completion of the election formalities and the process of forming a new government could take us six weeks or even further into the future from now. Meanwhile, it is becoming clear that some further decisions will be required regarding the deposit guarantee scheme, and it is important for the New Zealand economy that those decisions be taken as soon as practically possible and that they be politically durable. There is a Cabinet meeting tomorrow at which I hope the Government will be discussing this matter. We also understand that some announcements regarding the detail of the Australian bank deposit scheme will be made early this week, and that will provide a clearer backdrop for decisions to be made in New Zealand. The Government last week announced there would be a bank deposit guarantee scheme. We supported that initiative. That scheme guarantees the deposits of ordinary "˜mum and dad' investors who have some money put aside in a bank or building society, for example, and it also guarantees corporate deposits. Our banks rely on these sorts of deposits in order to lend to New Zealand businesses and to New Zealand households, and by doing so to keep our economy moving. However, retail deposits are only part of the story. Our banks also critically rely on wholesale funding from other banks and financial institutions. Some of this funding comes from within New Zealand, some from parent banks in Australia, and some from foreign, non-Australian banks and financial institutions. The Government's initial announcement last week stated that these wholesale deposits "“ effectively, banks lending to other banks "“ would not be guaranteed by the Government. Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd has outlined a scheme for that country which does guarantee wholesale deposits, and some deposit guarantee schemes being implemented in a number of other countries also do the same. Our banks are fundamentally strong, but in the current international environment, without a government guarantee it will be very difficult for them to raise funds in offshore finance markets, where they will have to compete against banks with cast-iron government backing. In this time of uncertainty, wholesale funds will flow to safe havens. This applies to wholesale funds within New Zealand as well. There is a risk that local financial institutions will decide to shift some wholesale deposits out of New Zealand banks and place them in Australian banks where their deposits will be guaranteed. All this means that the banks would, over time, have less money to lend to New Zealand businesses and New Zealand households, and that lending would become more expensive. We understand from the Reserve Bank's public statements that it considers the New Zealand banks to have some weeks or months of funding in the pipeline. However, the Government will, before too long, need to give banks, and other financial institutions, a clear indication of what is happening, to allow them to plan for any managed easing-off in lending. The important issue here is that the New Zealand deposit guarantee scheme, as announced last Sunday, is out of line with the Australian scheme announced by Kevin Rudd. However, there are important considerations to take into account when deciding whether or not to expand the New Zealand scheme to make it broadly in line with Australia. Already the effect of the deposit guarantee scheme announced by the New Zealand Government involves accepting contingent liabilities in the region of $150 billion. Expanding this guarantee scheme to include wholesale deposits would involve taking on a much greater contingent liability. Moreover, this issue is complicated by the fact that our big four trading banks are subsidiaries of Australian banks. If the New Zealand Government were to guarantee wholesale as well as retail deposits this would further transfer risk from Australian shareholders "“ who actually own the big four banks "“ to New Zealand taxpayers, who are giving them a guarantee. For its part, the Australian Government will no doubt be concerned about the effect of its own guarantees, and other possible changes, on the banking system in New Zealand, and on the balance of risk being held between the two countries. That seems to me to require some fairly direct understandings to be reached with the Australian Government and with the banking regulators in that country. I believe it is important that in any such discussion with the Australian Government both major parties must be supportive of the New Zealand position, given the imminent election here. However, we need to be clear that the overall priority for New Zealand is the continued health of the New Zealand banking system. I therefore today repeat my offer to Helen Clark that the National Party will support any sensible measures to protect New Zealand's banking and financial system against the impact of the current international credit problems. To the extent that these measures require further Crown guarantees, we are prepared to support them in a bi-partisan way. To the extent that taking such measures would require agreements or actions to ensure that the banks bear their appropriate share of the burden moving forward, I offer our constructive engagement, with the intention of bi-partisan support. If, for the reasons I have spelt out today, the Government accepts the need to find some form of agreement with the Australian Government about the framework for moving forward, then my colleagues and I will actively support that process. I will ensure the personal involvement of myself or my colleagues in any discussions the Government wishes to have with the Australian Government in order to provide reassurance about the durability of any understandings that are reached

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23 Comments

Key will drive inflation up

Key will drive inflation up and a move will be made to merge our currency with Australia. There will be a move to shift us into a global carbon energy tax frame which is the cover the Greens will provide.
General New Zealand living standards will decrease at an accelerated rate greater than that of Labour's mis-management.

Britney Spears will release another pop-album, mayby with a "green" theme.

Bernard Mr Key comments: "Already

Bernard

Mr Key comments:

"Already the effect of the deposit guarantee scheme announced by the New Zealand Government involves accepting contingent liabilities in the region of $150 billion. Expanding this guarantee scheme to include wholesale deposits would involve taking on a much greater contingent liability."

I read on Stuff: http://www.stuff.co.nz/4732490a11.html
Mr Key was quoted as saying the much greater contingent liability was NZD 450 billion.

May I put it to the readership that a NZ government guarantee of this magnitude underwritten by approx. 2.0 million working Kiwis is laughable and worth as much in reality as the rotting USD 54.0 trillion credit default swaps issued world wide.

If I were a banker, like Mr. Key was, I would be seeking polite excuses to lend elsewhere or not at all.

The latter is the status quo, because working individuals cannot liquify sums in the region of NZD 225,000.00 contingent or otherwise.

Bernard replies;
Stephen
I agree it's a fiction, but no less of a fiction than the previous one which was that the government would let a major bank fail. cheers/bernard

John Key is on the

John Key is on the button .When Swiss banks are in trouble ,why would be exempt Look at Iceland

Jill, Switzerland is the power

Jill, Switzerland is the power centre shop front of the whole global banking marionette system, that's where the beat of the jig gets set.
It's fairly likely John Key knows this as well as being fairly likely most people don't.

To cut to it, is it a good idea to follow the solution created at the source that a problem was made specifically for?

I think you are right though, John Key is on a button, and it is one i described in my previous post. Labour on the other hand, are more likely to sit on it by accident.

@ Key "Our banks are

@ Key "Our banks are fundamentally strong, but in the current international environment, without a government guarantee it will be very difficult for them to raise funds in offshore finance markets, where they will have to compete against banks with cast-iron government backing."

Mmm --I smell a rort. There are plenty of funds out there. The libor rate is down and internationally banks are lending to each other again. It is just that the interest rates may be a little higher. Banks are unwilling to accept this as it will cut into the obscene profits that they make. So , I know let's create a wholesale deposit insurance that will bankrupt the country if we choose to call upon it.

Bernard replies;
Digitally reborn
It's true that JP Morgan and Citigroup started lending to other banks again on Friday night for the first time in weeks. But inter-bank lending remains largely closed. The LIBOR rates are a fiction. Nothing is trading at those rates, although things may ease up in the next few days. cheers/bernard

Key is the key to

Key is the key to the interbank crisis.

Bernard It is critical that

Bernard

It is critical that this is bipartisan and well thought out. Having pushed for a guarantee scheme you must now see that introducing one to an existing system has fishhooks. That is if the banking system has grown around a guarantee scheme then it is inherently balanced, the effect of the scheme is factored into the system.

Applying one to an existing system,has the effect of re balancing the systems risk profile, so now we run the risk of instability as the funds in the system relevel themselves based on this new set of rules

The outcome is that you may actually manufacture some short term instability which is exactly what you were trying to avoid.

IMHO it would have been far better if Cullen/English had stood together and outlined how well rated our banks were, how well regulated they are and pushed for complete transparency on their exposure to US based CDO's, Rather than Cullen announcing another half-baked policy for political gain

Jill

The swiss banks has significant exposure to US CDO's AFAIK

Neven

Bernard I would have thought

Bernard
I would have thought that in these times is was imperative to encourage saving. If we had a good history of saving then we would not be in the position we find ourselves.
We need to get back to real money and good credit.I think interest rates should be able to find their own level,not be interfered with by central banks. No amount of interest would get me to lend to someone i dont trust, yet this appears to be the Govts intention. This article covers the subject well

http://mises.org/story/3151

Key: "I want to confirm

Key:
"I want to confirm to Helen Clark and her colleagues that the National Party is prepared to work with them to ensure that decisions can be made during this election period, when it would be too easy for politics to get in the way."

On the surface sounds a very reasonable statement
BUT..read the whole lot thru several times...some how one get an underlying feeling, the content poloitical statment, concieved and written by a Aussie PR company with the sole directive to win the election at all costs.

I think the only genuine statement Key has made is his definition of a rich person...I liked that.

Im times of crisis, ecominics or war, we need statesmen to run a counyrty, not a businessman or a General.

I think Key is right

I think Key is right and is showing that he understands the situation and Cullen and Clark don't.

This is Hobsons choice. We have to follow Australia or crash our economy...duh.

Then again.. we may well crash anyway.. but the choice is.. crash now or save the day now and pray for a miracle.. (or a war??)...

Why would you want to win this election..?.. talk about a hospital pass...

Anecdotal.. a local rural friend who has an engineering business and a small tourist business has noticed a decline in both .

Andrewj. That is a brilliant

Andrewj.

That is a brilliant article and spot on. I am very interested in seeing if anybody can credibly fault its key conclusion:

http://mises.org/story/3151

"I think Key is right

"I think Key is right and is showing that he understands the situation and Cullen and Clark don't."

Well he is wrong, and if he has any sense he will know, the Government make the calls up to election day results...thats the constitution...so what he is suggesting...lets change the Constitution!!!
The Government has a responsibility to keep any possible in coming party informed, and not make significant changes to appointments and stuff like that
Thats the Constitution, and that is basically what the current government is doing...and listening to what they have to say...
Then after the election, the current Government is a 'caretaker' where they consult with the new incoming Government (if any) on major issues.

This is basically our constitution for stable transition of Government...and has been for 100yrs or more, thru depressions, wars, and crisis, good times and bad...and has worked everytime

And Key decides it is not good enough for him...or his PR see where they can make political gain out of it...or both.

If Key is not aware of the constitution he should resign now.

This is not a time for a change in constitutional issues...because of the crisis or this far out from an election.

I think the P.M said

I think the P.M said it right when she referred to Key as a P.M with "Training wheels". I would question Key's ability to do the right thing for the country given that he is a "trader' and not an economist, and hasn't had any experience running the country. He has some knowledge for sure, been smart enough to buy and sell shares and currencies at the right time, made some quick cash, but that is a scarey prospect of getting involved in discussions of such significance.

Probably more of a concern than Key is his sidekick Bill English.... I think it better for the Govt and reserve bank to get on with making "good" rather than involving English and Key.

I think now is the time for a steady hand, prudence and fiscal responsibiliy, something that Cullen we know is very good at..

Steptoe. What constitution? I think

Steptoe.

What constitution? I think we would be much better off if we had one, but we don't.

MattS. I suggest you read

MattS.

I suggest you read the article Andrewj recommends:

http://mises.org/story/3151

and then let us know if you think your comments on fiscal responsibility are still relevant.

Its a pity that some

Its a pity that some of the comments are not helping our way of financial survival.At a time like this lets get into the mind set of financially thriving.

It would be very sad

It would be very sad if this forum became a political slanging match. I have no personal involvement in either of the major or minor parties. Can we keep to topic and not get involved in trying to change peoples beliefs i can tell you now it is a waste of you breath or typing time.I actually believe we have had very poor leaders for a long time Bolger is my all time low, Muldon,Palmer,Clarke Cullen have all been far to controlling and pretty damm useless because they have had personal agendas.Looking back I think Jenny S was OK. If we keep going down the more state control root with the belief that Govt can solve all our problems then we are in for some pretty rough times.It's amazing that after all that the USSR managed to cock up, there are people who still belief that the state has the answers, including JOHN KEY!

AndrewJ, That was a great

AndrewJ,

That was a great article, Go the Austrians(Red headed stepchildren of Economics)

I'm confused i've been out

I'm confused i've been out of NZ since 2002 living in the States but when did NZ get a constitution. They do have a constitution here in the US, they use it for toilet paper in the congressional bathrooms.

We have no written conistution...which

We have no written conistution...which I personally dont believe in...who what arguments over gun laws written a few centuries ago
Why fix something thats not broke?
But we do have constitutional law based loosely on British law, system.
"I have no personal involvement in either of the major or minor parties."
Nor do I, as far as Im concerned the left wing has screwed this country, and others with social manipluation.
Right now that damage is done and we have a fiscal issue before us, and need a statesman to take us thru.
Unfortunately with an election and a crisis at this point in history, the political aspirations of the candidates has a bearing on where we go from here.

If you heard Cullen on

If you heard Cullen on National Radio this morning, we can forget about our Finance Minister sharing his lectern with National.

The issue here is whether the NZ taxpayer should bail out shareholders in Australian banks. We should not. If the Aussie regulators need to amend their prudential rules to allow the Aussie parent banks to provide capital over and above the current 50% limit, so be it. That is what will happen if push comes to shove, because the Aussie parents won't want their NZ subsidiaries to collapse, with catastrophic results for the Australian banks and Australia's sovereign credit rating.

David C, Nice one. You

David C,

Nice one.

You may be interested in the proposed American Monetary Reform Act

http://sustento.org.nz/wp-content/uploads/2007/06/american-monetary-refo...

The Mises story is the

The Mises story is the same one many of us have been talking about on many threads including alternatives to the current monetary system.

The money/banking system has been abused since 1688 (Thanks to a bunch if Dutchmen and William of Orange!) and the same mistakes keep being repeated. Sooner or later the politicians will have to address it.