Nuclear winter
By Thursday lunchtime in London, the 18,900 employees in Royal Bank of Scotland’s investment banking division will know whether they still have jobs at Britain’s biggest government-owned lender, Bloomberg reports.
Dangerous game
Hedge funds are taking on the powerful International Monetary Fund over its plan to slash Greece's towering debt burden as time runs out on the talks that could sway the future of Europe's single currency, according to Reuters.
'Greatest threat'
Fitch Ratings pointed to Italy as the euro-zone member that poses the greatest threat to the currency bloc's future, as the lack of a regionwide plan to prevent the sovereign-debt crisis from spreading has coupled with the country's large debt burden and high borrowing costs, according to a story in the Wall Street Journal.
Protection
"A woman's best protection is a little money of her own.."
Clare Boothe Luce
more below ...
| 8 am | --- 52 week -- | |||||||
| Today | yesterday | high | low | |||||
| -------- | -------- | --------- | --------- | |||||
| FX rates | NZ$1=US$ | 0.7935 | 0.7844 | 0.8822 | 0.7174 | |||
| NZ$1=AU$ | 0.7693 | 0.7696 | 0.8085 | 0.7276 | ||||
| Gold | in US$/oz | 1,615 | 1,611 | 1,895 | 1,319 | |||
| in NZ$ | 2,035 | 2,053 | 2,314 | 1,705 | ||||
| Copper | in US$/t | 7,503 | 7,515 | 10,147 | 6,785 | |||
| in NZ$ | 9,456 | 9,580 | 13,507 | 8,299 | ||||
| Crude oil | in US$/bl | 102.28 | 100.99 | 118.70 | 89.69 | |||
| in NZ$ | 128.90 | 128.75 | 149.14 | 117.26 | ||||
| US Treasuries | 30 yr bond | 3.06% | 3.06% | 4.73% | 2.88% | |||
| Dow | DJIA 30 | 12,467 | 12,389 | 12,919 | 10,402 | |||
Unintended outcome
When Australia’s government passed laws to help its banks obtain cheaper funding with covered bonds, it didn’t count on Europe’s debt crisis wiping out the savings through higher yield premiums and record swap costs, Bloomberg reports. (Update: it looks like Bloomberg have subsequently disabled the original link, so we have updated with Google's cached version.)
Why do nations fail?
Is the Arab Spring really a revolution or just a palace coup? Will there be wholesale political change, or will one ruling clique merely replace another?
A 37% rise that signals an improving US economy
You can find what looks like good news for the US economy in the US Mint's annual report for 2011 - demand for quarters, dimes, nickels, and pennies was up. During the financial crisis, demand had plunged. "People went into their piggy banks and their coin jars and spent those coins, " says a US Mint spokesperson. "Those coins flowed back into the banks and then ultimately back to Federal Reserve. The Federal Reserve vaults started filling up and they turned off the spigot of new coin production from the United States Mint." But in 2011, coin shipments increased by 37%, a sign that people are no longer tapping their piggy banks for extra cash.
Banning commissions
Holiday timeshare operators say they will face an ''immediate and devastating'' threat if they are forced to comply with new laws designed to stamp out commissions and other conflicts of interest in the Australian financial advice industry.
Big profits
The US Federal Reserve said it transferred $US$76.9 billion in profits to the US Treasury Department last year, slightly less than its 2010 transfer but much more than in any other previous year.
No chart with that title exists.
42 Comments
Been to Aussie lately Wolly? http://www.businessday.com.au/business/boldasbrass-thieves-hit-metals-2…
It seems to me the risks involved far outweigh the cash returns for stealing copper...far easier to go bush and prospect for nuggets....got to be a great way of life...
Maybe also dearch for rocks from space...desert floors must have plenty to be found.
we are increasingly convinced that as the system gets caught in an ever more rapid round trip scramble peak deflation to peak inflation (and vice versa) so the ever more desperate central planners will have no choice but to ultimately throw the kitchen sink at the massive deflationary problem - because after all it is their prerogative to spur inflation, and will do as at any cost - a process which will culminate with the only possible outcome: terminal currency debasement as the Chaotic monetary swings finally become uncontrollable.
Unfortunately, we are far less optimistic that the very same central bankers who have blundered in virtually everything, will succeed this one time.
And the US debt ceiling is gonna be raised again. Another Trillion or so of worthless fiat, chasing after the same limited amount of resources. Another 10% deficit for the worlds super power, reserve currency police state. At current rates it could be closer to 2 trillion.
The problem is that since then the US has issued $900 billion in debt in five short months! In other words, somehow the remaining buffer of just $300 billion, or a final debt ceiling of $15.5 trillion, is supposed to last the US until after the presidential election,
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/obama-ask-debt-ceiling-increase-matter-days
2012: Some things are certain
Central banks are likely to embark on a further significant easing of the global monetary policy stance this year. We believe that governments will require and receive help as they continue to struggle to contain public debts and deficits. The global economy will likely require and receive help as it is teetering on the brink of another recession. And with headline inflation very likely to decelerate almost everywhere during the first half of 2012, central banks should be able to argue that a rising risk of unwelcome disinflation or even deflation justifies additional conventional (where still possible) and unconventional stimulus. So, while there are ample reasons to worry about recession risks, financial fragility and fiscal policy blunders, at least central banks are likely to provide a monetary backstop but even then we believe we are much closer to crumbling of the entire global economy than we were any time in our memory
"The Kremlin, which generally opposes Western attempts to tighten United Nations sanctions, criticised Iran for starting to enrich uranium at up to 20 per cent purity inside a previously secret plant.
This facility, located at Fordow near the city of Qom, is buried beneath a mountainside and could be invulnerable to military attack."
"invulnerable".........what utter rubbish....the entrances are the weak points...the road systems and ventilation systems...the power systems...any bridges within 100 miles...any tunnels...any power stations...barracks....fake towns...runways...hangers....and last but biggest of all the mountains themselves...Try sorting a few million tons of rock out...
Wolly,
I think something is likely to happen soon. This just in
Iran car explosion 'kills nuclear scientist' in Tehranhttp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-16501566
"They" could make life very difficult by simply dropping radioactive material over the site - a bomb is not needed. Not a nice prospect but I bet that is one of their options.
I hope nobody is advocating a war with Iran as a positive step. Iran is entitled to enrich uranium for civilian purposes under the nuclear non-proliferation treaty. The IAEA has been monitoring them closely because they developed in secret nuclear power technology, but there is a clear reason they did this. It was because the US blocked several attempts by Iran to develop nuclear technology in the open.
The US clearly does not care about their own non-proliferation treaty obligations as they have made no attempt to reduce their own nuclear arsenal, have helped to develop nuclear weapons technology in non-treaty countries Indian and Israel and have not allowed inspections of their own nuclear arms technology.
If the US wanted a diplomatic solution to its dispute with Iran then it would only need to ask, Iran has proposed several. Conditions include,
* US agrees not to attack Iran
* Middle East to become nuclear weapons free zone.
* Allow peace agreements in Palestine based around pre-1967 borders.
The supreme ruler of Iran has stated that Iran does not intend to attack any other country, and sanctions will push more political sentiment towards their hard-line prime minister, Ahmudinijad.
Just reported on Bloomberg that the EU meets Jan 23rd to make a decision on whether to allow imports of Iranian oil. If they decide to boycott Iran says it will close the staits of Hormuz. The Chinese Premier is about to visit KSA and UAE to shore up supplies to Asia.
Watch this space as they say.
Ahmadinejad voiced his aggressive intentions towards Israel numerous times. Similarly to Palestinian militants, he does not want peace with Israel. (This makes it impossible to go back to 1967 boarders).
Trusting Iran to confine their nuclear programme to peaceful purposes only is naive.
I said the supreme ruler of Iran, not their president (who is appointed, does not lead their military) who would lose his support base if Iran was not constantly threatened with attack and under sanctions.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ali_Khamenei
Can we or Iran trust the US not to overthrow the Iranian government? They did in 1953.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1953_Iranian_coup_d'%C3%A9tat
In the 1980's the US was more than happy to back Saddam Hussain, in his invasion of Iran,
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_support_for_Iraq_during_the_Iran%E2%80%93Iraq_war
including support (by the use of their veto) for his use of chemical and biological weapons during the conflict. See also,
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prevention_of_Genocide_Act_of_1988
Members of Irans government repeateadly has suggested that the middle east should become a nuclear weapons free zone, to the general assembly of the UN in 1974, in 2006, in 2008. If the US wants a nuclear weapons free Iran (which they clearly don't) then this would be a good way to persue this goal.
Can we trust the US not to start a war on entirely false pretenses, they did that last in Iraq. There is significant evidence that Iran proposed a 'grand bargan' in 2003 where all the things the US claims it wants were on the table. But the US rejected it because they only care about one thing (which was never on the table), the US believes they should have significant influence on Irans policy and essentially ownership of Irans oil resources.
Both Iran and the Palestinians have always accepted a peace agreement based around pre-1967 borders. Israel refuses to accept a settlement based on pre-1967 borders. Thats the borders before Israel attacked,
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Six-Day_War
The US promise to veto the UN validation of a Palestinian state, the US massive aid to Israel shows that the US either wants constant fighting between Israel and Palestine and in the wider middle east or wants essential control of the middle east, through its use of client states.
Exactly the same things were said about Iraq, before the invasion. Because there was an invasion it has to been possible to confirm that Iraq gave up all its WMDs in 1991.
If the US wants to reduce the potential nuclear threat of Iran (which it doesn't concern itself with) it should stop threatening it. The CIA certainly understands that Iran's hard liners will try to develop a nuclear weapon if the US further threatens them. The CIA also understands that economic sanctions will push people towards the Iranian hardliners.
The US has neither a mandate, nor any basis under international law for its constant intervention into many other countries governments. The actions of the US government show clearly, it does not believe it is subject to international laws, even for treaties it signs, and that other countries should do what the US tells them, regardless of their governmental system, regardless of what their citizens want to do, tacitly the US government is the world government. Further more the US does not apply the same rules it applies to others to its self.
This is a very ugly, while complex and dangers development - stirring up more military activities in the region:
For this, “the Israelis are using Kurdish oppositionists to the regime in Iran, who are living are refugees in the Kurdish regions of Iraq”, the source told Le Figaro. Although the article makes no mention of official or unofficial sanction of the Israeli operations by the Iraqi Kurdish authorities, it implies that the alleged Mossad activities are an open secret in Iraqi Kurdistan.
http://intelnews.org/2012/01/11/01-906/
Iran is getting pushed to th point where it has nothing left to lose. Like Japan WWII. The US has non nuke missiles that fly at mach22 and when they hit, it may as well be a nuke. Either a real or fake boarding of an oil tanker in the Gulf, and its on.
Desperate times call for desperate measures. The world is run by psychopaths and ignorant men.
http://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/Nuclearweaponswhohaswhat
USA: 5113
Iran: nil.
says it all.
But, mr spinmeister, nobody is suggesting that the Iranians are peace-loving, honest or even nice folk. These folk are every bit as bad as the folk who set up Guantanamo Bay, "an extrajudicial detainment and interrogation facility".Perhaps worse.
Irrelevant.
Their action is still the entirely predictable reaction of a small owner of an essential resource, particularly in light of what happened to their next-door-neighbour.
..and why, as a good catholic goNZ blame Iran, when there is enough prove that us Westerners have done many atrocities against the Arab world in the last 20 years.
e.g. Fallujah DU weapons – etc. Because of graphic pictures I don’t put a link.
..and by the way after the experiences in Iraq, Palestine in the last 5 -10 years - I don’t blame Iran devoloping powerful weapons for self defence.
goNZ I recommend you gather information from either people, who live in affected regions or have inside information about the regions – and not mainstream, propaganda journalism.
Let's see now....Walter and Nic charged with being 'westeners' and CIA agents and evil nasty orthodox Christians threatening the peaceful loving Iranian Islamic republic of enlightenment...tossed into a jail and poked with sticks by the loving peaceful mob....
I don't see them making the trip gonz!
Yeah right Walter...I'm stupid because I fail to understand all the butchery in the world is the result of western powers...give it a break Walter.....Do I blame all Swiss peasants today for the corruption in the Swiss banking system..for the double dealing with the nazi regime...for the Swiss govt involvement in the manufacture of weapons delivered to Hitler...no.
goNZ - please read: http://www.tikkun.org – a moderate Jewish site advocating peace.
AIM Guest Column
Big news from Iran, confirming once again that the hapless regime in Tehran proceeds down its death spiral. The first is the spectacular collapse of the national currency, which has lost 35% of its value since September. The second headline, in an extraordinary press conference by the effective commander of the revolutionary guards, is the admission that the incarcerated leaders of the green movement have so much powerful support that the regime dares not prosecute them.
The crash of the rial has been linked to the latest round of sanctions, the ones aimed against the Iranian central bank. These are, at least for the moment, unilateral American sanctions, but their import is global, since they are aimed at anyone doing business in Iran’s oil sector. Those transactions invariably go through the central bank, and the American sanctions confront would-be purchasers of Iranian crude oil with an unpleasant choice: either do business with America or do business with Iran.
The ayatollahs, in their usual blustery way, have pooh-poohed the effect of the sanctions, insisting that Iran is so strong that even such harsh measures will have little effect. But nobody in Iran believes that. There are long lines at the money changers, and one leading government supporter puts the matter in chilling perspective: Iranian industry “cannot continue to exist” with the rial at today’s level.
As the Washington Post’s man in Tehran says, this is a devastating blow to the regime, both because it further exposes their inability to cope with the Great Satan—whose destruction, after all, is the core mission of the Islamic Republic—and because the Iranian people know that their oppressors are making out like bandits, as Treasury Undersecretary David Cohen explains:
The 39 percent difference between the central bank’s official rate and market rates on Dec. 21 was the largest in almost two decades, economists in Tehran and Washington said in interviews.
U.S. Treasury Undersecretary David Cohen said the gap between the two rates has provided an arbitrage opportunity exploited by officials and businesses affiliated with the IRGC, the elite military arm that’s under international sanctions for suspected nuclear weapons work and terrorism. They are among regime elements able to obtain foreign currency at the favorable official exchange rate and sell it for a profit in exchange bureaus at the market rate, he told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee in written testimony Dec. 1.
“Ordinary Iranians are urgently seeking out foreign currency such as dollars or euros for safety, yet they are having trouble accessing hard currency, and when they can, they have to pay the unofficial market rate,” said Cohen, the Treasury undersecretary for terrorism and financial intelligence.
There are stories from Tehran about people desperately trying to buy commodities, from gold to steel, about people selling cars and motorcycles to get cash they can convert to hard currency, and, inevitably, about people offering their kidneys for sale (a story we’ve heard about desperate people everywhere from Africa to China. Is it true?).
So the regime is failing to meet the basic needs of the Iranian people (nothing really new there; strikers at the Shiraz Telecommunications Factory haven’t been paid for 26 months), and the people don’t like it.
This debacle coincides with an amazing confession of weakness from the highest level of the regime: Ali Saeedi is the supreme leader’s representative to the Revolutionary Guards, and since Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei commands the Guards, Saeedi’s words are authoritative. Asked why Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi–the two Green Movement leaders who have been held in isolation for more than ten months—Saeedi publicly stated that it can’t be done, because the two have such powerful support. The opposition leaders can’t be prosecuted, he said, “because they have supporters and followers” as well as “a few turban-heads [clerics] who continue to back elements within the sedition.”
Indeed, Karroubi’s wife has been released from captivity, and she communicates her husband’s thoughts to the Green Movement. Most recently, this consisted of instructions to boycott the upcoming parliamentary elections, scheduled for March. This is yet another direct challenge to Khamenei, who has always boasted (often falsely) that Iranian elections produce huge turnouts.
Those who believe the Green Movement has been crushed need to reflect on these developments, which seem to me to prove the opposite: the regime fears the movement, doesn’t dare take decisive action against its leaders, and faces further protests against a background of mounting failure.
And yet, Khamenei’s killers continue to attack us in Iraq and Afghanistan, and we still have not openly supported his opponents, any more than we have supported Assad’s opponents in Syria. How many Americans have to die at the hands of this wicked regime before we help the Iranian and Syrian people put an end to their long national agony?
I have met several Iranians in my time, and I can say they are all amoung the most gentle open and friendly people you can imagine. Obviously they are not part of the political class in Iran and I don't dispute that Irans leaders do some pretty nasty things to their people at times. This is not the point, and it is not even important to this discussion.
What I have posted (from very main stream sources) is that the US government has a worse record of deceipt than Irans government, in fact almost all the deceipt is on the US side. This is probably because Irans government does not have any alternative other than being bombed virtually out of existance. This deceipt includes issues around nuclear weapons, and shows that the goal is not to reduce tensions.
The only correct course (if the justification for a war is that Irans people are being oppressed) is to wait for Iranians to ask for help. It is obviously invalid to desire several thousands of their people to die for your own beliefs (of how Iran should be ruled).
You're a small country, sitting on to of oil. A lot of oil. You've seen what happened next door, and seen it more clearly that those who get it via western news sources. You know you can't hold off that kind of might.
So your options are: get a weapon that scares even the mighty,
and
gather all the support you can, so you aren't quite as lonely (and so there are less places on the planet subscribing to the propaganda from the country with so many nuclear weapons, it outguns eveyone else combined).
Fiji -Crackdown on assembly, more military power
Fiji is described as becoming even more of a dictatorship with a crack down on assembly, and more powers given to the military.Methodist churches empty etc
IMHO the Time has arrived for NZ and Australia to carry out regime change in Fiji incl by force of required, or we will have no credibility when condemning other govts on the otherside of the world. Colonel Banana has to go
Unless attrocities are being carried out, in fact even if attrocities are being carried out any attack on Fijis government could still be considered terrorism (or a worse crime), given this do you recommend NZ follow any form of due process via the UN before unilaterally acting? In fact under which piece of international law would you recommend NZ justify this regime change? Would you also recommend NZ violate international law in order to carry out regime change?
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