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90 seconds at 9 am: US jobs disappoint; NZ$ rises; Aust investment 'past its peak'; China CPI rises
Here's our summary of the key news from over the long holiday weekend in 90 seconds at 9 am, including news that the March jobs data in the US disappointed the markets on Friday. Only about half of the expected jobs growth was posted - around an extra 120,000 new jobs - but economists are thinking this is an aberation rather than a trend. The average for the previous three months was an increase of over 200,000 per month.
Disappointment over the March data led the US dollar to fall, and our dollar starts the week at US$0.8230, and the TWI at 73.6 which is its highest level in almost a month. In fact, the kiwi dollar is now trading at AU$0.7970 which is its highest level against the Australian currency in well over six months.
The sinking feeling in Australia is becoming more widespread. Westpac has released an interesting research note that the massive mining investment boom there has reached its peak and will likely fall from here. That peak was at NZ$1.1 trillion (AU$912 bln) of pending projects. Westpac says that backlog will fall away from here, and maybe quite rapidly and some projects get 'mothballed'.
Of course, that is all to do with China. Over the weekend they reported a rise in their inflation rate to 3.6% in March, which will worry Beijing policy makers and make it harder for them to add stimulus to their economy without fueling even more inflation.
In New Zealand this week it will be all about house prices as both QV and the REINZ reveal their March data, probably on Thursday.
7 Comments
The US isn't the only
The US isn't the only one:
http://earlywarn.blogspot.co.nz/2012/04/european-unemployment-still-increasing.html
http://earlywarn.blogspot.co.nz/2012/04/piigs-unemployment.html
And, of course, all jobs ain't jobs. The drive to casualisation and less-than-collective bargaining, means that the so-called 'increase' will (in terms of spending power) be a real decrease several orders of magnitude bigger.
Niall Ferguson China,
Niall Ferguson China, Turmoil and Triumph, a Flawed Understanding of China?
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article33906.html
Funny how 'economists' are
Funny how 'economists' are thinking this is an aberration rather than a trend where over on zerohedge.com Tyler Durden predicted this months ago. Misinformation eventually hits reality.
How can one month's data be a
How can one month's data be a trend?
Zerohedge has been pointing
Zerohedge has been pointing out the flaws in the seasonal calculations, so the longer term trend as they see it remains intact. The key here is their accurate prediction.
One has to question whether
One has to question whether the public pronouncements of economists are ever worth taking seriously. Appart fom their demonstrably total inefectivness in predicting and preventing the mess that we are in; they are invariably employed by banks or institutions that have a strong vested interest in positive financial conditions. For an economist to publicly say or predict negative conditions would be against the interests of their employer and therfore not a good carreer move. Best to ignore them. They have no credibility.
Scarfie ...permit me to edit
Scarfie ...permit me to edit your post...as I'm sure you meant...
Funny how 'economists' are thinking