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90 seconds at 9 am: US retail sales weak, worse than expected; IMF downgrades global economy and warns; China worried; NZ$1=79.8 US cents
Here's my summary on on the key news overnight in 90 seconds at 9 am, including news the US economy is spluttering along.
Overnight we had American retail sales results and they weren't good. They fell 0.5 percent in June, the first time they have fallen for three consecutive months since 2008, and another report found rising business inventories. This was worse than expectations, will raise fears that the US economy is failing to grow, and will fuel expectations of another round of quantitative easing by the Fed.
The IMF has downgraded its world economic outlook and called on policy makers for stronger action to combat risks to the weak recovery. It's downgrade wasn't major, but it warned that the outlook could dim further if policymakers in Europe do not effectively address their debt crisis and cited rising concern about the "fiscal cliff" battle in Washington.
In Spain, their 10 year government bonds reached an entirely unsustainable yield of 6.81%. In contrast, bond yields in the US are at record lows.
China’s Premier Wen Jiabao warned that his nation’s recovery is yet to build any momentum, and this warning is fueling speculation that extra economic support measures may be announced after a cabinet meeting this week.
Oil is up to US$88 / barrel, the Dow is unchanged in late trade, and the NZ$ starts the day at 79.8 US cents, up slightly, 78 AU cents, unchanged, and the TWI is also unchanged at 72.4. Later this morning, Q2 inflation rate will be released. We are not expecting any surprises.