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90 seconds at 9 am: US stocks fall 0.3% to end winning streak; Japanese GDP growth much weaker than forecast; NZ$ under 81 USc; StanChart in settlement talks

Posted in News
See video

Here's my summary of the key news overnight in 90 seconds at 9 am, including news the US stock market fell 0.3% overnight to end a 7 day winning streak, it's longest run of gains in 20 months.

Nagging concerns about a synchronised slowdown in global economic growth across Europe, Asia and the United States returned to drag on confidence. See more here at Bloomberg.

Annualised Japanese GDP growth of 1.4% in the June quarter was much weaker than the 2.3% expected by economists. Consumer spending stalled as earlier government incentives after the Tsunami faded and the economy slowed in line with weaker demand from China. See more here at Bloomberg.

Emphasising the weakness in the construction-based Chinese economy, prices for iron ore imports slumped this week to their lowest levels in 2 and a half years, Reuters reported. Our largest trading partner, Australia, is a major exporter of iron ore to China.

Meanwhile in Europe, the Greek economy contracted 6.2% in the June quarter from a year earlier, which was better than the 7% fall economists had expected. But the result reinforced the debt spiral Greece is in, whereby austerity reduces spending and the size of the economy, thus increasing the relative weight of the same debt pressing down on a smaller economy. See more here at Bloomberg.

Elsewhere, Reuters reported Standard Chartered is in settlement talks with the US regulator that accused the global bank of covering up US$250 billion of money laundering by Iran. The settlement talks came after Standard Chartered initially denied any wrongdoing and accused the regulator of being over-zealous and out of step with other regulators.

The New Zealand dollar fell to 80.9 USc overnight from over 81 USc yesterday as investors took some of their riskier assets off the table. Investors remain in Northern Hemisphere Summer mode with light volumes. Traders will be watching local retail trade data later this morning and Euro-zone GDP data later tonight.

 

 

 

We welcome your help to improve our coverage of this issue. Any examples or experiences to relate? Any links to other news, data or research to shed more light on this? Any insight or views on what might happen next or what should happen next? Any errors to correct?

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10 Comments

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/20

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2012/08/12/160935/will-high-oil-costs-permanently.html
 
Annual global expenditures on raw energy have climbed to an estimated $8 trillion to $9 trillion, exceeding 10 percent of the $70 trillion world gross domestic product. Those figures, however, omit the succession of price up-charges along the manufacturing, marketing and delivery chain for energy-related components of goods and services.
“I don’t think the economy is ever going to grow again . . . not on a sustained basis,” Hall said in an interview.

Read more here: http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2012/08/12/160935/will-high-oil-costs-permanently.html#storylink=cpy

One for Bernard, accredited

One for Bernard, accredited to BoA, the Australian financial sector is now , by market cap, larger than that of the entire Eurozone. Thankfully  Australia is the lucky country, with these institutions indefinetely supported by China et al. Too large to fail.

Christchurch City

Christchurch City Blueprint......Politicians must be honest with ratepayers.....
 
 
The Christchurch Central Blueprint is “rubbish” – that will do irreparable damage to Christchurch if allowed top proceed.
 
 
The issue is covered comprehensively at Cantabrians Unite Facebook today - http://www.facebook.com/CantabriansUnite
 
 
Hugh Pavletich

" whereby austerity reduces

whereby austerity reduces spending and the size of the economy, thus increasing the relative weight of the same debt pressing down on a smaller economy"
While on the surface this appears correct.  In reality it is somwhat different.   
 
It principly reflects that the people directing the Greece economy are idiots and incompetent in their job.
 
Without Austerity measures (ie when they had this "big pumping economy") they were driving their debt guzzler faster into the brick wall.  They were accelerating.  The point of austerity is not to make the debt smaller, but to applying braking forces - a braking force that would not be required if their original plans and philosophies were acceptable.
  This "Relative weight" has always been there, just they were borrowing to cover it up before.  Now they can't.  Like someone who has several Credit Cards and has been using one to pay off the others.  Suddenly not having money for things when payoff time arrives, doesn't mean you had money before;; it means you've always been spending beyond your means.

The next step for those idiots, is to work out which "Shooting Stars" actually result in wealth growth.  eg what can be exported, what can be traded, what wealth can be invested by capital works (eg labour and time to improve productivity on farms, and infrastructure....without any borrowing.  What improvements can be made for fuel and heating and lighting (energy _needs_ , as opposed to streetlights, festivals, or internal consumption paid for with debt) as reducing the cost of production _per_unit_ without borrowing externally, increases the yield from any product produced.
  An internal trades-based training (all career paths, not just traditional trades) and apprenticing (master & single apprentice) at low wages or work for food, instead of modern borrow for university & selling edutainment certificates, will result in an experienced and highly productive workforce.
Also designing smart philosophies around population centers will help.  Subway systems cost a fortune and can only be done in upswings.  Decentralisation results in higher fuel, machinery and roading costs.  Work at putting efficiency into training and business investment subsidies to get employment and skills "near to where they're planted" to reduce overhead.  Built systems that use people, not the purchase of expensive machinery.  1000 employed people with bugger all wages does more for your economy than 10 technicians watching a machine.
 
Just because they can't handle austerity doesn't mean it doesn't work.
Perhaps they also need to study how German survived it's war reparations & came to be the financial powerhouse of Europe in under 70 years - after having major parts of it's infrastructure destroyed and mostof it's trading partners hating it politically.

Austerity doesnt work when

Austerity doesnt work when you are up against the zero bound and staring a Greater Depression in the face, as they are proving.
My take is that a Govn has to be counter-cyclical....so in the boom times, yes Govn austerity and indeed making sure the tax take is big enough to save for the downturn...In the downturn the Govn should be releasing its savings to help keep the economy from a serious nose dive....At no point should a Govn need to borrow....Of course the Pollies like to give handouts so they get re-elected and the punters like to re-elect those taht give them handouts....fools a=one and all.
Germany after ww2 had huge amounts of US money poured into it.....definately not austerity.
"The Marshall Plan (officially the European Recovery Program, ERP) was the large-scale American program to aid Europe where the United States gave monetary support to help rebuild European economies after the end of World War II in order to prevent the spread of Soviet communism.[1] The plan was in operation for four years beginning in April 1948. The goals of the United States were to rebuild a war-devastated region, remove trade barriers, modernize industry, and make Europe prosperous again.["
 
regards

WW2 Ended in 1945. and they

WW2 Ended in 1945.

and they need to make sure the tax take is small, not big.  Government investment is always counteproductive.  And one of the countries we're talking about just blew it's wad on TWO elections - if one wasn't expensive enough.

Wow - here's one for the Top

Wow - here's one for the Top 10 from the IMF dated 1 August 2012;
 
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=26178.0
 
Although just a working paper - but at least they're 'working' on it :-).
 
Thanks to PositiveMoney for pointing it out (even though their headline is a poor choice, or wishful thinking, or both);
 
http://www.positivemoney.org.uk/2012/08/imf-backs-full-reserve-banking/
 
 

Hate to pour water on the

Hate to pour water on the parade there Kate, but  the IMF two years back had working papers on the expansion of interventionalist tools to be used by Central Banks, citing at that time the NZD was considerably overvalued and easily affected by currency speculative movements. The working  paper even included a favorable rethink on FTT's as a means cotroling or at least slowing the volatility of swings.......................but ah well eh...?
It's really mostly lip service in print byenlarge......! so you know , uh don't hold your breath on it.

Who will stop the

Who will stop the megalomaniac’s in this country ?

This is an interesting

This is an interesting observation from Charles Hugh Smith;
.. the steady erosion of faith in the U.S. stock market is striking: as noted last week, 80% of the trading is either invisible, officially sanctioned manipulation or computers trading.
If the U.S. legal system weren't hopelessly compromised, the U.S. stock markets would be shuttered as corrupted beyond redemption.
http://www.oftwominds.com/blogaug12/credibility-expectations8-12.html
 
Interesting stat but then I could never figure out the fascination with pokie machines either.