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Yellen's forward guidance; US jobs strong; Yuan fall risks margin calls; UST yields up, gold down; NZ$1 = US$0.855 TWI = 80.1

Yellen's forward guidance; US jobs strong; Yuan fall risks margin calls; UST yields up, gold down; NZ$1 = US$0.855 TWI = 80.1

Here's my summary of the key news overnight in 90 seconds at 9 am, including news leveraged investors are getting more signals their time is passing.

Janet Yellen has suggested that it will be only six months or so after the withdrawal of QE - and at the rundown rate of US$10 billion per month that will be done by September - that we should expect to see the Fed raising its interest rates. Guidance that far forward has rattled some market observers, but she is confirming the cheap money era is ending. Bankers and the highly leveraged may not like it but rates are going up worldwide.

Sales of existing homes in the US declined in February to the lowest level since July 2012, down 7% from the same month a year ago. Median prices however were up 9% over the same period. The slowing pace of sales suggests an industry out of step with the rest of the economy, however.

Initial claims for American state unemployment aid increased 5,000 to a seasonally adjusted 320,000 last week. The rise was smaller than economists had expected, and kept claims close to the three-month low hit in the prior week.

At the same time, the closely-watched Philly Fed survey of factories in their region has factories coming out of the cold snap busy with full order books.

US mayors put out a report overnight noting that the energy boom is having a remarkable impact on their cities, raising employment and prosperity nationwide, and they see it growing until at least 2020.

The Chinese currency has been depreciating remarkably quickly in the past few days, too fast for some. Foreign exchange markets are scrambling to make sense of the fall on some complex investments that risk falling out of the money and defaulting if newly freed up currency depreciates any further. Could be some rude shocks awaiting some investors.

The benchmark UST 10 year bond yields are up sharply today to 2.77% while the oil price has slipped a little and the gold price has slipped a lot in mid-afternoon New York trading. Gold is now down to $1,320/oz. Meanwhile, US stocks are up more than 0.5%.

The NZ Dollar is at 85.5 USc this morning, at 94.4 AUc and the TWI starts at 80.1.

If you want to catch up with all the changes yesterday, we have an update here.

The easiest place to stay up with today's event risk is by following our Economic Calendar here »

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1 Comments

The Fed raising its rate will be interesting to watch.  I thought JY was a dove, looks more like a hawk right now.

Setup for the next panic seems well under way.

regards

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