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US GDP revised higher, jobless lower; Lehman makes a payment; oil up, gold down, WMP falls; NZ$1 = US$0.868 TWI = 80.9

US GDP revised higher, jobless lower; Lehman makes a payment; oil up, gold down, WMP falls; NZ$1 = US$0.868 TWI = 80.9

Here's my summary of the key news overnight in 90 seconds at 9 am, including news the story today is again about the surging NZ dollar and the falling gold price.

But first, the American fourth quarter GDP estimate has been revised higher to 2.6% pa as final components have been resolved. American jobless claims data also came in better than expected for last week and better than the week before.

On the other hand, pending home sales - a forward looking index of contracted real estate sales - continued to slide lower, declining for the eighth straight month in February.

In an echo from the past, the team winding down Lehman Brothers said overnight it would be making its fifth distribution, doling out another US$18 billion to creditors more than five years after the investment bank's collapse triggered the financial crisis. Creditors are on track to get about 22c in the dollar when it is all washed up.

In afternoon trade in New York, stocks are down slightly, the yields on the benchmark UST 10 yr bond are down, the oil price is up with the US and Brent benchmarks coming closer together, and the gold price is down under US$1,300 for the first time in six weeks. It is currently at US$1,294/oz. It has fallen below NZ$1,500/oz for the first time since mid January.

Also overnight, the USDA monitoring of dairy market prices has seen $200/tonne falls for milk powders, combined with the rising NZ dollar that represents about a 12% fall in wholemilk powder prices in NZ dollars since the beginning of the year. Less for other products.

But these changes are beginning to mount up for an industry that is being pressed into being a high cost producer.

The NZ Dollar continued its higher push overnight and starts today at 86.8 USc its highest since July 2011, the Aussie is at 93.7 AUc, its now at its highest against the Yen since 2008, and the TWI is up to 80.9 a new all-time high.

If you want to catch up with all the changes yesterday, we have an update here.

The easiest place to stay up with today's event risk is by following our Economic Calendar here »

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1 Comments

Fonterra units valued at 24 times forecast earnings (were at 17xs) at 2012 listing.
Lex Column mentions there is little reason to think the valuation is about to weaken.

Noted Synlait Milk mentioned fx in farmer pmt was too high so reduced things by $5m for SM.

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