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China growth lower; Japan and Australia in big trade deal; renewables need more subsidy; bond yields fall; NZ$1 = US$0.860 TWI = 80.3

China growth lower; Japan and Australia in big trade deal; renewables need more subsidy; bond yields fall; NZ$1 = US$0.860 TWI = 80.3

Here's my summary of the key news overnight in 90 seconds at 9 am, including news of a major trade deal.

But first, the World Bank has trimmed its growth forecasts for China in 2014. The new expectation is now 7.6% from 7.7% while its forecasts for other East Asian countries have been trimmed also to 5.0% from 5.2%. East Asia still remains the fastest growing region in the world however.

The EU Parliament wants new rules for electric cars to make more noise. Apparently it is a safety issue.

Overnight, Japan and Australia have reached broad agreement on bilateral trade after seven years of wrangling, in a pact that will lower or eliminate tariffs on everything from cars to beef. The drop in tariffs for frozen and fresh beef going to Japan are major, going from 38.5% to 15.5% over 15 years and from 38.5% to 23.5% respectively. The Aussies have won dairy tariff reductions too. The relenting by Japan on these core products signals that progress is likely to be made on TPP sticking points.

In the US. apparently the new low-cost gas and shale energy boom is causing headaches for 'renewables'. The Wind industry wants more subsidies to be able to compete.

Oil is a little lower today and there is now less than US$5 between the US WTI benchmark and the Brent price. Gold has slipped below US$1,300/oz today.

Benchmark US Treasury bond yields continue to fall, giving bond investors price gains. The 10 yr is now at 2.68%. The expectation of Eurozone QE may be behind the shift. These falls are driving down New Zealand swap rates.

Stocks in New York are down another 1% or so in mid-afternoon trade.

The NZ Dollar starts today as it did yesterday at 86.0 USc, the Aussie is at 92.9 AUc, and the TWI is still at 80.3 this morning.

If you want to catch up with all the changes yesterday, we have an update here.

The easiest place to stay up with today's event risk is by following our Economic Calendar here »

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5 Comments

GROWTH, GROWTH, GROWTH

It's unsustainable folks, how about some talk about how to get along and prosper without it.

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Yep, just read this short article which sums up the issues nicely for anyone who cares.

 

http://www.resilience.org/stories/2014-04-07/energy-and-the-financial-system-what-everyone-needs-to-know-and-work-darn-hard-to-avoid

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Re; Subsidies to renewables. Odd that you never mention the subsidies that the US fossil fuel industry receives:

http://priceofoil.org/content/uploads/2012/05/FIN.USCapitolSubsidyGraph…

On, second thoughts, not odd at all.

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Fuel consumption peaked at 4.2 billion barrels a year in 2007 but is estimated by Z and the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment to fall to 3.6 billion barrels within the next 10 years.

 

A 1 per cent improvement in broadband connectivity is estimated to cause a drop of 200 million litres a year in national fuel demand, more than the impact of GDP growth, population, fleet turnover, vehicle efficiency and the petrol price.

 

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=112…

 

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Yes I'm sure broadband is the reason and nothing to do with the rising cost of fuel putting a restraint on demand.  

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