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Japan growth surprise; China mini-stimulus; India plans rapid reform; NZ rural exports boom; UST 10yr 2.61%; NZ$1 = US$0.848, TWI = 79.1

Japan growth surprise; China mini-stimulus; India plans rapid reform; NZ rural exports boom; UST 10yr 2.61%; NZ$1 = US$0.848, TWI = 79.1

Here's my summary of the key news overnight in 90 seconds at 9 am, including news from around the world.

Firstly, there was something of a surprise from Japan late yesterday. Their first quarter growth easily beat initial estimates on an unexpected surge in capital spending, fresh signs the world's third-biggest economy is in better shape to get through the bumps from the rise in their GST recently.

In the world's second largest economy, the Peoples Bank of China overnight announced plans to let some regional banks lend more of their deposits in a move designed to give their sluggish economy a boost. 

It's part of a concerted move by their biggest economic agencies for so-called mini-stimulus measures.

Their currency was also allowed to make a sizeable gain against the US dollar although it is not so major against the New Zealand currency.

In India, their new government has announced a program of rapid economic reform aimed at creating jobs and boosting foreign investment. It includes a Chinese-style infrastructure building program and should make a big difference to a long-neglected part of India's modernisation.

And locally, new data released late yesterday shows how successful our rural industries have become. Primary sector exports will reach record levels of $37.7 bln around $1.3 bln more than previously forecast. Meat, wool, logs and horticulture are all generating significant growth at a time when all eyes are on dairy's spectacular story.

In New York, UST 10 yr bond yields rose again to 2.61% in trade earlier today. Stocks are holding on to their highs and the oil price is rising with the good economic mood and is now over US$104/bbl. Gold is unchanged.

On the exchange rate the NZD has fallen overnight following a rise in the US dollar. It starts today at 84.8 USc, at 90.7 AUc and the TWI is at 79.1.

If you want to catch up with all the changes from yesterday we have an update here.

The easiest place to stay up with today's event risk is by following our Economic Calendar here »

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3 Comments

DC, Ah do b'lieve that this here Article may just be the must-read-and-understand for 2014.

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"A project called Twister is attempting to replace Twitter with a peer-to-peer tool based on the blockchain" I heard about this the other day after talking about the facebook article featured at interest.co.nz

 

"He’s currently fundraising to put Bitcoin satellites into space to rebroadcast the latest version of the blockchain around the world for those without reliable internet connections."

But the underlying problem with peer to peer is always going to be who owns, or has control of, the network. Cowboy was pointing out some of this the other day. Maybe it can be done by wireless but I wonder(doubt) if there is time left in the system to execute.

 

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I thought provoking piece about risk at zerohedge.

 

Can't help but think of the ability to really assess the risk in our property market, which is really what this site has become about and is New Zealanders number one investment. "There’s no inherent “wisdom” here, no emergent outcome where the crowd acts like an enormous set of parallel microprocessors to arrive at Truth with a capital T."

 

But then what could be a very insightful statement in the comment stream. "Maybe there will be no risk, right up until there is infinate risk?" (Race to the Bottom 20:57)

 

Put this in the context of Iconoclasts astute comments regarding Big Daddy last week. Yes Bid Daddy has the micro data and probbly has the best bully on the RE market. But property investors don't seem capable of judging the macro data and will one day get caught in a very illiquid position.

 

Property will be good until it isn't.

 

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