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TPP text finally made public; Chinese stock market rally drives volumes to 3-month high; US productivity up but still weak; US unemployment benefit applications rise; UST 10yr yield 2.25%; NZ$1 = 66.2 US¢, TWI-5 = 71.6

TPP text finally made public; Chinese stock market rally drives volumes to 3-month high; US productivity up but still weak; US unemployment benefit applications rise; UST 10yr yield 2.25%; NZ$1 = 66.2 US¢, TWI-5 = 71.6

Here's my summary of the key events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news the full text of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) has been released.

The hard work deciphering the 6000 page plus document will now begin, after years of the agreement's details being kept under wraps. Legal verification of the text will continue in coming weeks, as the Government considers the final outcome from negotiations, before signing the agreement. It will then have to go through New Zealand's Parliamentary process to get our final tick of approval.

With the task of getting the agreement past Congress ahead, US President Obama has said, "The TPP means that America will write the rules of the road in the 21st century. If we don't pass this agreement - if America doesn't write those rules - then countries like China will."

Staying in the US, productivity increased more than expected in the third quarter, with manufacturing productivity growing at its fastest pace in four years. While productivity increased at an annual rate of 1.6% compared to the previous quarter, it only rose 0.4% compared to the same period last year.

Economists blame softer productivity on a lack of investment, which they say has led to an unprecedented fall in capital intensity. Weak productivity also boosted employment growth during this time, as companies hired more workers to increase output. Yet this in turn has contributed to wages stagnating.

Other data out of the US shows new applications for unemployment benefits recorded their largest increase in eight months last week. Still, last week marked the 35th straight week that claims were below the 300,000 threshold normally associated with a strong jobs market, and claims hovered near 42-year lows for much of October.

All eyes will be on the US non-farm payrolls report out overnight. 

Mainland Chinese stock markets have extended their gains overnight, as investors have jumped into blue-chip shares, driving transaction volumes to their highest levels in more than three months. Shanghai and Shenzhen closed up 2.1%, while the Shanghai Composite Index gained 1.9%.

In New York, the UST 10yr yield benchmark has jumped to 2.25% overnight. Global bond yields climbed to a seven-week high, after Fed Chair Janet Yellen yesterday said a US interest-rate increase remains a possibility for this year.

The price of oil remains low, with the US crude benchmark just below US$46/barrel, and the Brent benchmark just below US$49/barrel.

The gold price has fallen to US$1,106/oz.

The New Zealand dollar has recovered after reacting to global dairy prices falling and a weak jobs report yesterday. It's at 66.2 US¢, 92.7 AU¢, and at 60.9 euro cents. The TWI-5 is at 71.6.

If you want to catch up with all the local changes yesterday, we have an update here.

The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here »

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6 Comments

Staying in the US, productivity increased more than expected in the third quarter, with manufacturing productivity growing at its fastest pace in four years.

Rearranging factors on a spreadsheet cannot mask reality.

Seasonally-adjusted, factory orders have declined month-over-month by more than 1.1% in each of the past two. Read more

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"The TPP means that America will write the rules of the road in the 21st century. If we don't pass this agreement - if America doesn't write those rules - then countries like China will."

Ironically US trade has collapsed.

Much like global “inflation”, if you set out to find global “demand” you will be hard pressed to find it. QE was supposed to be a huge boost to aggregate demand, through inflation expectations, yet the score in 2015 is hugely negative. Read more

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I may have missed it - but has any mention being made on this site in regards to NZ buyer buying Lochinvar?

Given the not insignificant comment stream when the Chinese were deemed to have signed it up I am surprised that it hasn't made the news here. We aren't xenophobic here are we? If it has been discussed then I take it all back. ;-)
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/73743157/lochinver-station-s…

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Giggle giggle homophobic?

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lol! Thanks Belle. ;-)

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Jenee, No, the full text has not been released. The contextual documents are suppressed for six more years so not even lawyers will be able to make sense of it now. And there are likely to be secret clauses buried even deeper - that's why the ISD Tribunals are to be extra-territorial to the member states jurisdictions. But that's not to say there won't be a quid in it for NZ, it will just go to the 3 Amigos mates first.

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