Busily filling in an application for Bernard's job ?
 
...... we can only hope that  Wolly gets the gig !
 
:-)

Ignorance is bliss in your case it seems.  Actually peaak oilists do not as such.....I think Keynes? said "when the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir?"   Simple, find some small field, adjust the peak by a few days or at most months...
Shale is and was not un-forseen and it wont be significant, its not easy oil....the key is EROEI....shale doesnt have a EROEI of 8 to 1 or more.....its probably not even 6 to 1. Mostly shale will be a gas play btw.
You also fail to appreciate maths....or specifically the expotential function.  So at 2.5% more per aunum 70/2.5 = 28 years to double our present needs.  So today we use 86million barrels per day.....28 years from now ideally we want 170mbpd, to do that we'd have to find double what we have already found (2.3 trillion barrels)  inside 5 years and develope it inside 5 years ...the chances are for that is zero.
The analysis has already been done on AGW effects and yes in terms of AGW we have and we will release enough CO2 for us to go extinct before 2200 in the next few decades, (possibly this decade) time lag being what it is.
regards
 
 
 
 

yes he opened my eyes in 2006 to peak food etc.....just at peak oil funnily enough...oops.
Lost the URL but I have the piece....(hopefully BH / GD will forgive me posting it here)
"Gwynne Dyer: World's dwindling larder
Friday October 13, 2006
We are still living off the proceeds of the Green Revolution, but that hit diminishing returns 20 years ago. Now we live in a finely balanced situation where world food supply just about meets demand, with no reserve to cover further population growth. But the population will grow anyway, and the world's existing grain supply for human consumption is being eroded by three different factors: meat, heat and biofuels.
For the sixth time in the past seven years, the human race will grow less food than it eats this year. We closed the gap by eating into food stocks accumulated in better times, but there is no doubt that the situation is getting serious. The world's food stocks have shrunk by half since 1999, from a reserve big enough to feed the entire world for 116 days, to a predicted low of only 57 days by the end of this year.
The miracle that has fed us for a generation now was the Green Revolution: higher-yielding crops that enabled us to almost triple world food production between 1950 and 1990 while increasing the area of farmland by no more than 10 per cent. The global population more than doubled in that time, so we are now living on less than half the land per person than our grandparents needed. But that was a one-time miracle. Since the beginning of the 1990s, crop yields have essentially stopped rising.
One reason we are getting closer to the edge is the diversion of grain for meat production. As incomes rise, so does the consumption of meat, and feeding animals for meat is a very inefficient way of using grain.
It takes between 11 and 17 calories of food (almost all grain) to produce one calorie of beef, pork or chicken, and the world's production of meat has increased fivefold since 1950. We now get through five billion hoofed animals and 14 billion poultry a year, and it takes slightly over a third of all our grain to feed them.
Then there's the heat. The most visible cause of the fall in world grain production - from 2.68 billion tonnes in 2004 to 2.38 billion tonnes last year and a predicted 1.98 billion tonnes this year - is drought, but there are strong suspicions that these droughts are related to climate change.
Moreover, beyond a certain point, hotter temperatures directly reduce grain yields. Current estimates suggest that the yield of the main grain crops drops 10 per cent, on average, for every 1C that the mean temperature exceeds the optimum for that crop during the growing season. Which may be why the average corn yield in the US reached a record 8.4 tonnes a hectare in 1994, and has since fallen significantly.
Finally, biofuels. The idea is elegant: the carbon dioxide absorbed when the crops are grown exactly equals the carbon dioxide released when the fuel refined from those crops is burned, so the whole process is carbon-neutral. And it would be fine if the land used to grow this biomass was land that had no alternative use, but that is rarely the case.
In Southeast Asia, the main source of biofuels is oil palms, which are mostly grown on cleared rainforest. In the US, a "corn rush" has been unleashed by government subsidies for ethanol, and so many ethanol plants are planned or already in existence in Iowa that they could absorb the state's entire crop of corn (maize, mealies). The amount of ethanol needed to fill a big SUV just once uses enough grain to feed one person for a year.
There is a hidden buffer in the system, in that some of the grain now fed to animals could be diverted to feed people directly in an emergency. On the other hand, the downward trend in grain production will only accelerate if it is directly related to global warming.
It's only in the past couple of centuries that a growing number of countries have been able to stop worrying about whether there will be enough food at the end of the harvest to make it through to next year. The Golden Age may not last much longer."
he didnt consider US ethanol production either....
regards

JB : You must be new around here ...... any second now , and the brushbeaters-of-doom are gonna arrive , and rain all over your parade .....
 
....... this is the gloomsterisation zone .......
 
As much as I love the good news ( and a handful of other bloggers do too ) , Bernard and the gang will be mighty ticked off with you ...... tisk , tisk !

Les Rudd - interesting article and links.
 
I fully agree that "debt on property is outstripping investment in the productive sector".  If a CGT was to be considered there are two very important opposing sides in the event a CGT is implemented, it would work for the Govt when prices increase as they would get revenue form the increase.
However the opposite occurs when house prices decrease and Govt (via the IRD) would have to refund taxes on the loss. In countries with CGT's this has been an issue.
 
While many see the property market as a way to get a free capital gain of which one can either leverage off the increase in value and purchase more housing stock, there have been tax advantages with this business model, the same model can work in reverse in a declining market.  In a declining property market wouldn't tax credits or refunds be available.
While property investment is obviously the target of those advocating a CGT, would it not affect all business that holds property as part of that business activity?
All business has some form of property/land involved in the activity and has benefited by the increase in valuations.  Most business has leveraged off this valuation increase somewhere down the line regardless of how they are structured. The only business activity that does not get any leverage is the business who does not own any property asset and has a lease or similar agreement with a landlord for the supply of property. Many of these small operators end up leveraging off the family home to obtain start-up capital.
 
.
In regards to the unproductive investment in assets regarding property, Supply and demand issues are actually the main driver of this market.  I am quite surprised that the NZMEA who clearly understand supply and demand have not mentioned this in the above. If the NZMEA wants investment dollars into productive activity then it would appear to be in the interests of the NZMEA to propose alternatives to the current land shortages in Councils district plans. Perhaps the NZMEA has already done this but it needs to keep being active until alternatives are implemented which assists in getting the desired cultural-change from investing in housing to investing in the productive sector.
 
Unfortunately for any business involved in the product export industry, you are competing in one of the most hostile complex environments that are affected by internal and external factors beyond the business's control.
I did read an interesting article recently in regards to those offshore Companies who are repatriating funds from NZ earnings and the effect of this on the NZD.  I can see why Bill E is wanting Kiwis to invest offshore - a bit of counter balancing in the equation.
 
 

Good article Hugh - thanks again. Everyone blames property investors which has detracted from the real issues of supply and demand and of course the politics that is entrenched in our society.
 
My old French G Grandfather who lived in Kurow knew a bit about supply, demand and politics. I think he used the bad-child, yell and bellow and you get what you want trick but I know he wouldn't have tolerated the rubbish that goes on nowadays.  The PC mumbo-jumbo political and bureaucratic brigagde need to be dismissed.

Too late really. Required payment in wealth, not debt. (or if paid in debt, the parcel had to be on-passed before it proved worthless.
 
That era has passed.
 
And 'floating on oil' ??????   You a tout?  Let's stick with reality.

We export our sweet as its owned by a private company(s) and import sour as our plant is designed for sour which is also cheaper.
Its extremely unlikey that there is much oil in or around NZ....so really not worth a huge effect in worrying over.
If we did have a decent number of barrels then we should leave it in the ground for our grand children, they are going to be desperate for energy.
regards
 
 

I went to buy oranges and I bought nz ones. not very hard to do.

make it yourself

Walk ! ....... oh , it's a French made car ...... you'll be walking soon enough , then ....

Until now , I didn't know that the Saudis made cars ...... we live and learn ....

Love it Mist42nz - just wish I could have hit that vote up button several times.
 
Now there's a sales opportunity exporting our taxes and bureaucrats. Certainly no need to worry about the exchange rate.

Bell Tea was made in Dunedin .... but I have a niggly-naggly feeling that it wasn't grown there ...... the tea plantations had to make way for the new sports stadium ....

well why dont you make something yourself and sell it?

Glad you enjoyed it , 'cos I'm the guy who sticks the little " Made in NZ " labels on your tap water ....
 
..... you gotta be fairly nippy , to stick a label onto running water .....
 
We get the labels made up in Thailand ...

i like the decimal places.

i said to lock the gates! both ways!!!

we will beat North Korea in its isolation. down with North Korea. Nz only for Nz!

no no - Faith and Work Units are the future. the present polices are mind control. no one has any choice. down with FEEdom/ more choice!!!!

you leader. master leader!

too funny. and complainers like yourself.

cant wait to build my own computer - bit of no 8 wire should do the trick

Good luck with that ...... we'll still be here , when you've succeeded in your mission ........
 
....... goodbye , then .........

la la tra lal la la.  though for sume it certain is a hymen quest

NZ does lead the world - its the 1st major country that gets the sun each day!