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Wednesday's Top 10 with NZ Mint: Debunking the Harvard report that debunked Peak Oil; Beijing's congestion charging plan; Chinese property tax trials; An American aristocracy of the elite; Dilbert

Posted in Opinion

Here's my Top 10 links from around the Internet at 10.30 pm today in association with NZ Mint.

As always, we welcome your additions in the comments below or via email tobernard.hickey@interest.co.nz.

See all previous Top 10s here.

My must read today is #1. I'm on my bike.

1. Still on the slippery slope to peak oil - New Scientist says peak oil is still a reality, despite the much-touted research released from Harvard in June suggesting otherwise.

This piece is a comprehensive takedown of the Harvard research, saying it has 'glaring mathematical mistakes'.

It also cites an IMF paper saying real oil prices are likely to double permanently over the next decade.

Is New Zealand ready for US$200/barrel oil and a petrol price north of NZ$3/litre?

How are you arranging your business and personal affairs for this?

Got a car running around 5 litres per 100 kms?

Planning on cycling and walking a lot more?

Here's the New Scientist piece.

The recent hysteria rests heavily on the rise of shale oil in the US, which was unforeseen and is significant. After four decades of decline, US oil production turned in 2005 and has generated the bulk of the global supply growth since then. But to brand this a "paradigm-shifter", as Maugeri does, is wrong.

He forecast that this boom will lead to an astonishing 4 mb/d of additional US shale production capacity by 2020. By contrast, the US Department of Energy, usually optimistic, predicts total US shale oil production will peak at just 1.3 mb/d in 2027.

One reason Maugeri's forecast is so high is that he assumes production from existing shale wells will decline by just 15 per cent per year.

Industry consultant Art Berman puts decline rates at around 40 per cent. Analysis by Bob Bracket of US market analysts Bernstein Research shows similarly steep declines, and also that the average shale well takes just six years to become a "stripper well" - producing just 10 to 15 barrels a day. Such declines are far higher than for conventional wells, effectively meaning the industry must drill furiously just to stand still. It is this factor that will limit future production growth.

2. Chinese property tax - Shanghai Daily has the latest on this trial. This could take the top off the Chinese property boom.

THE central provinces of Hubei and Hunan may be next to implement a property tax trial as detailed rules are being drafted, a newspaper under the Ministry of Land and Resources said yesterday, citing unnamed sources at the State Administration of Taxation.

The expanded program in the two provinces may impose a tax on second homes, whether newly bought or not, owned by local families, the paper said.

3. A clinical diagnosis of the European tragedgy - Christopher Mahoney does his thing at Project Syndicate.

The European Project is a wooly-headed idea with no compelling political or economic rationale, which is threatening to condemn half of the continent to penury and intractable indebtedness. The idea that the “loss of political significance” is worse than a depression is not only fallacious, but also elitist. It is better that the people of Southern Europe have jobs and houses, than it is that “Europe” succeeds.

4. Britain's mess - Paul Krugman points out yet again the austerity prescription isn't working in Britain, which last night reported a suprise budget deficit.

The New Statesman had a good idea — it went to 20 British economists who signed a letter back in early 2010 calling for immediate austerity and asked them whether they still supported the Osborne policies now that Britain is in double-dip recession. Only one of those who replied said yes, while nine urged Osborne to reconsider his opposition to stimulus.

circumstances really haven’t changed; the UK had a depressed economy then, and it still does now. Fiscal austerity while the economy is depressed, and in particular when conventional monetary policy has reached its limits, was an obviously bad idea from day one.

5. An aristocracy of the elite - Chris Haye's book looks interesting. Here's a preview interview with Henry Blodget on Yahoo

MSNBC host and author Chris Hayes in a new book called Twilight Of The Elites, America has become a self-perpetuating aristocracy, in which the small percentage of Americans who benefit from the power and wealth imbalance do what they need to do to ensure that they and their friends and families cling to power.

Importantly, this new aristocracy crosses racial and gender lines--it's not the "old white boy" network of prior generations.

But it's just as insidious in terms of removing the meritocracy that is part and parcel of the now-rare "American Dream" and replacing it with what amounts to an old-world aristocracy. Even President Barack Obama, Hayes argues, succumbed to this trend when he gained power. Although his own story represents the epitome of the old American dream, Obama's policies now seem designed to preserve the power of the elites, a class in which he is now firmly entrenched.

So how do we fix this? In Hayes' view, we should start by raising taxes on high incomes and raising the minimum wage.

6. The Facebook fallacy - Michael Wolff nails it here at TechReview.com.

For all its valuation, the social network is just another ad-supported site. Without an earth-changing idea, it will collapse and take down the Web.

7. Baby drought - Bloomberg reports on the economically stifling effects of a US baby drought.

“Consumption bumps up when families have children,” said Dean Maki, chief U.S. economist at Barclays Plc in New York, who worked at the Federal Reserve from 1995 to 2000, and researched household finances. “The fact we are seeing fewer births is something of a drag onconsumer spending. To the extent this turns out to be a persistent trend, it is something to be worried about.”

The population increased by 0.92 percent, or 2.8 million people, to 311.6 million from the end of the decennial population count on April 1, 2010, to July 1, 2011, the slowest rate over a similar period since the mid-1940s, the Census Bureau said.

8. Chinese congestion charges - Bloomberg reports on the communist state's plan to charge for road use to reduce congestion and pollutions. How very green-red.

Beijing plans to build a system for imposing road-congestion charges on motorists, adding to caps on vehicle registrations as China’s capital seeks to ease traffic jams and cut emissions.

The municipal government will also accelerate the expansion of the subway network, increase dedicated bus lanes and encourage the use of bicycles for short commutes, according to a five-year development plan by the city’s transportation commission posted on its website.

9. Spanish political strife - Reuters reports the political pain in Spain is getting ugly as the austerity pressure goes on.

Two Spanish government ministers traded public barbs on Tuesday, clashing over implementation of tough austerity measures demanded by the European Union as Spain's borrowing costs soar, pushing it toward needing an international bailout.

Treasury Minister Cristobal Montoro said in an interview that he would veto new taxes on energy firms proposed by Industry Minister Jose Manuel Soria, saying that addressing the budget deficit was a bigger priority than energy sector reform.

10. Totally Stephen Colbert on the Romney-Ryan double act

 

We welcome your help to improve our coverage of this issue. Any examples or experiences to relate? Any links to other news, data or research to shed more light on this? Any insight or views on what might happen next or what should happen next? Any errors to correct?

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151 Comments

Where's Wolly ?

Where's Wolly ?

Busily filling in an

Busily filling in an application for Bernard's job ?
 
...... we can only hope that  Wolly gets the gig !
 
:-)

Oh Gee BH.... 1. Misses the

Oh Gee BH....
1. Misses the point that was proved in 2008 with oil at $147USD (and is being repeated this year at $100USD). While some such as I as an individual can sustain $200USD based petrol (my 4~6 week bill goes from $100 to $200) many who use a tank+ a week so $400 a month to $800 a month cannot.....let alone the impact on businesses.....
That sort of price signals a permanent stagnation/recession a saw tooth effect economy witha  downward trend......and thats if we are lucky.  It wont be that stable of course....so a Greater Depression starter sometime in the next 5 years....if the financial right wing mumbo jumbo we see today doesnt do it first.
regards
 
 
 

It is curious to watch the

It is curious to watch the peak oilers shift their prophecies of doom with each new find of oil.  In this case, " rests heavily on the rise of shale oil in the US, which was unforeseen and is significant".  Aha!  A "significant" find of oil was "unforeseen".  So when they predicted that the sky was going to fall because oil was running out, and nothing easy was left to be found, they had not factored in a "significant" source of oil.  Are there any other sources of oil out there that we need to know about before we set the next date for the apocalypse, or shall we just set an interim date now until all the data comes in?
 
Peak oil is just a hobby for doomsdayers.  Surely a more interesting analysis would be, "what are the likely climate impacts of using all the oil we currently know about in the time period it is likely to be burned in?"  It doesn't appear that we need to find any more for there to be a problem.

There was nothing 'unforseen'

There was nothing 'unforseen' about the shale deposits - they've been known of for 40 years or more. Nobody went near them because they were the dregs in the barrel.
 
When you are into the dregs, it's because the good stuff has wented. It's not 'doomsaying' (how many times has it got to be said around here - emotions don't alter reality), merely stating the obvious.
 
Peak Oil isn't about  'running out', that's a commonly-made - and foolish -  mistake. it's about peak flows of usable energy. Shale oil is good enough in an energy-return-on-energy-invested manner, to fuel BAU. You will do things on it, but you won't underwrite growth, quite the reverse.
 
Climate Change will have an impact (if you've evolved to be optimal in a given habitat/environment, then you alter that habitat/environment, statistically you have to be negatively impacted) but not as immediate as choked energy supply. The irony is that if we're causing the problem already and we're only half-way through.............
 
 
 
 

Correct. BHP, one of the

Correct. BHP, one of the global giant resource companies got all excited earlier this year and bought PetroHawk in the US for its shale real estate holdings. Paid $20 billion and has now just taken a bath of 50% on it.  Dropped a cool $10 billion. And BHP is a smart operator. ??

Ignorance is bliss in your

Ignorance is bliss in your case it seems.  Actually peaak oilists do not as such.....I think Keynes? said "when the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir?"   Simple, find some small field, adjust the peak by a few days or at most months...
Shale is and was not un-forseen and it wont be significant, its not easy oil....the key is EROEI....shale doesnt have a EROEI of 8 to 1 or more.....its probably not even 6 to 1. Mostly shale will be a gas play btw.
You also fail to appreciate maths....or specifically the expotential function.  So at 2.5% more per aunum 70/2.5 = 28 years to double our present needs.  So today we use 86million barrels per day.....28 years from now ideally we want 170mbpd, to do that we'd have to find double what we have already found (2.3 trillion barrels)  inside 5 years and develope it inside 5 years ...the chances are for that is zero.
The analysis has already been done on AGW effects and yes in terms of AGW we have and we will release enough CO2 for us to go extinct before 2200 in the next few decades, (possibly this decade) time lag being what it is.
regards
 
 
 
 

but steven, you are denying

but steven, you are denying the next animals to rule this planet their place.  thats evil and discriminating!

Im not denying them

Im not denying them anything.....humans have at most 100,000 years of existance due to DNA limits....and 100,000 years is meaningless in terms of eons.
regards

are you serious; which limit

are you serious; which limit is that? How old is that research to say that dna is limited? all dna is limited to that or the paticular version that is the current form of homo-sapian.
 

It's a copyright thing.  Fair

It's a copyright thing.  Fair use runs out after that, and any breeders will be in breach.

It was a piece I read on

It was a piece I read on male's DNA, apparantly the male DNA is shortening slowly....at about the 100,000 year mark we will have to be replaced with plastic and batteries...buy duracel now!!!!
So our total existance will be about 200,000 years.....
regards

too funny. remember most

too funny. remember most stuff you read in science is just garbage and of no practical value.. especially the popular press.  no working scientist thinks anything of significacne of the science mags except the pr value.
 
 

Not forgetting....just not

Not forgetting....just not trying to confuse the already limited and blinkered with too many facts at once.
Interesting thing is most refineries are set up for sweet, yet whats left is sour....and NZ's plant is setup for sour.  In the future its not likely to be economically or time possible to convert sweet plants to sour.......we might have the last laugh in NZ yet....ie the yanks might steal the oil but wont be able to refine it.....they might invade and take marsden off us I suppose.
:/
regards

I didn't know we were set up

I didn't know we were set up for sour.  Is that a recent change on our part?
According to Nicole Foss the oil we extract from the ground here in NZ cannot be processed in NZ.  Maybe that has changed.  If so, good.
I think in the end, yes, someone will take it.  Probbaly wont need to invade in my opinion; it'll be in one of our trade agreements - an oil for trinkets 'swap' or some such.
Regards.
 

Peak conventinal oil - the

Peak conventinal oil - the black stuff that comes out of the ground - has already past. This so called shale oil is not even oil, it's kerogen. A waxy oil like substance that hasn't been cooked by subduction deep in the earth and is thinly dispersed in hard clay. The fact we are even mining it tells you all you need to know about how desperate we're getting.
 
Like a lot of things really. Like super deep water oil rigs or copper mines at 0.2% copper concentration or sending ships from the northern hemisphere deep into the Southern Ocean to harvest krill. Whale food FFS.
 
http://www.peakprosperity.com/crashcourse/chapter-18-environmental-data

No - we aren't forgetting any

No - we aren't forgetting any of that Misty - right with you.
 
Until you get to the "$40-70 per litre".
 
The money side of the ledger has to be backed by something other than debt proffered; at $40-70 a litre (in todays equivalent dollars) what's happening to generate the backing?
 
As Bollard said:
http://www.interest.co.nz/news/52059/rbnz-governor-warns-chinese-slowdown-us-gloom-commodity-price-boom-and-sovereign-debt-bust-are-risks
"Indeed if oil prices escalate beyond US$100 for long, growth in much of the world will suffer again,"

"generate the backing" money

"generate the backing"
money is not directly attached to something. i.e. watts/joules/kg of gold etc. it variable based on what people want and how much they want it.
 

Actually it isn't variable at

Actually it isn't variable at all, it is locked into a downward spiral. The quantity theory of money left out the interest, so I put it in: (M.V)+i=P.Q
 
Try running some scenarios with that and see what you come up with. Incrementally lower interest rates, lowering velocity and increasing money. Hyperinflation or default is the end point. What PDK is talking about is the production side, and if that goes down (It will in a default or due to lack of resources) then the scenario I have painted accelerates.
 
What people want only affects spot interest rates, never the trend.

too funny.  next time there

too funny.  next time there is a sale on I'll tell the shop 'you cant do that' the price level is set and you must sell it at that price based on the quanity theory of money.

I thought you were talking

I thought you were talking about the money supply not trivial individual transactions.

you can apply to the economy

you can apply to the economy - ie zimbabwe.  the point is money - as it is - is not locked to something. 1 unit of money is not locked. unlinke 1 gram of gold is always one gram of gold

... and fortunately we

... and fortunately we haven't reached peak gold yet. ;-)

Actually, http://news.goldsee

Actually,
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1145804580.php
Its debatable, but 2000 seems a probable date....though some suggest 2020ish, all of about 10 years away.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_gold
regards

That is dead right and is

That is dead right and is exactly the reason we went away from the gold standard. The money supply used to have a direct connection to resources, but then the resources started getting harder to get then the logical thing was to disconnect money from resources. Doesn't matter though, as it will always come around again. Peak EROI in 1961 (when the rate of population growth turned down) and off the gold standard in 71. 

not sure about harder to get

not sure about harder to get resources, i thought it was so government could spend more than it could tax. ie war funding

Yep, to buy the resources to

Yep, to buy the resources to fight the war. Oil was already getting more expensive to get out of the ground. But all those aircraft need metals, as do all the guns and ammo. Brass shell casings need copper, which is getting increasing harder to get and at current rates of consumption will only last 40 years.
 
Other countries were stupid enough to take a devaluing US dollar in exchange for these resources. Why do you think the US are considering a free trade deal with NZ? There won't be anything free about it, empires draw resources from the periphery and we are next on the list.

7. I think someone told me

7. I think someone told me the cost of having a child in a US hospital was something like $10kUSD....and dont think its covered by std insurance?
So gee why I wonder are US ppl having less babies...let alone any other costs weighing them down.
regards
 

http://www.odt.co.nz/opinion/

http://www.odt.co.nz/opinion/opinion/222285/its-going-get-very-ugly-rich-poor-and-hungry
 
One of the more astute reporters on the planet, is Dyer.

yes he opened my eyes in 2006

yes he opened my eyes in 2006 to peak food etc.....just at peak oil funnily enough...oops.
Lost the URL but I have the piece....(hopefully BH / GD will forgive me posting it here)
"Gwynne Dyer: World's dwindling larder
Friday October 13, 2006
We are still living off the proceeds of the Green Revolution, but that hit diminishing returns 20 years ago. Now we live in a finely balanced situation where world food supply just about meets demand, with no reserve to cover further population growth. But the population will grow anyway, and the world's existing grain supply for human consumption is being eroded by three different factors: meat, heat and biofuels.
For the sixth time in the past seven years, the human race will grow less food than it eats this year. We closed the gap by eating into food stocks accumulated in better times, but there is no doubt that the situation is getting serious. The world's food stocks have shrunk by half since 1999, from a reserve big enough to feed the entire world for 116 days, to a predicted low of only 57 days by the end of this year.
The miracle that has fed us for a generation now was the Green Revolution: higher-yielding crops that enabled us to almost triple world food production between 1950 and 1990 while increasing the area of farmland by no more than 10 per cent. The global population more than doubled in that time, so we are now living on less than half the land per person than our grandparents needed. But that was a one-time miracle. Since the beginning of the 1990s, crop yields have essentially stopped rising.
One reason we are getting closer to the edge is the diversion of grain for meat production. As incomes rise, so does the consumption of meat, and feeding animals for meat is a very inefficient way of using grain.
It takes between 11 and 17 calories of food (almost all grain) to produce one calorie of beef, pork or chicken, and the world's production of meat has increased fivefold since 1950. We now get through five billion hoofed animals and 14 billion poultry a year, and it takes slightly over a third of all our grain to feed them.
Then there's the heat. The most visible cause of the fall in world grain production - from 2.68 billion tonnes in 2004 to 2.38 billion tonnes last year and a predicted 1.98 billion tonnes this year - is drought, but there are strong suspicions that these droughts are related to climate change.
Moreover, beyond a certain point, hotter temperatures directly reduce grain yields. Current estimates suggest that the yield of the main grain crops drops 10 per cent, on average, for every 1C that the mean temperature exceeds the optimum for that crop during the growing season. Which may be why the average corn yield in the US reached a record 8.4 tonnes a hectare in 1994, and has since fallen significantly.
Finally, biofuels. The idea is elegant: the carbon dioxide absorbed when the crops are grown exactly equals the carbon dioxide released when the fuel refined from those crops is burned, so the whole process is carbon-neutral. And it would be fine if the land used to grow this biomass was land that had no alternative use, but that is rarely the case.
In Southeast Asia, the main source of biofuels is oil palms, which are mostly grown on cleared rainforest. In the US, a "corn rush" has been unleashed by government subsidies for ethanol, and so many ethanol plants are planned or already in existence in Iowa that they could absorb the state's entire crop of corn (maize, mealies). The amount of ethanol needed to fill a big SUV just once uses enough grain to feed one person for a year.
There is a hidden buffer in the system, in that some of the grain now fed to animals could be diverted to feed people directly in an emergency. On the other hand, the downward trend in grain production will only accelerate if it is directly related to global warming.
It's only in the past couple of centuries that a growing number of countries have been able to stop worrying about whether there will be enough food at the end of the harvest to make it through to next year. The Golden Age may not last much longer."
he didnt consider US ethanol production either....
regards

...with all due respect to

...with all due respect to "emotions don't alter reality" above, there is an unavoidable bias in journalism towards telling a story in a dramatic/doom laden way.  So if we take the assertion that (1) easy crop yield gains have gone and (2) grain is being diverted to beef and fuel, then you could argue that people will go hungry, which is a dramatic conclusion.  Another outcome could be that the price of beef will rise, and price conscious consumers will get their protein elsewhere.  So you could take the same assertions and write a happy piece along the lines of, "End of the green revolution will usher in a new age of vegetanarians".  As the price of beef goes up, and a new generation that is also adverse to factory farming grows into the food-choice age group, beef farmers are finding it increasinly difficult to sell their expensive and wasteful product to consumers who see it the way their parents saw large cars.  Meh.  Boring story, that won't print.  Let's stick with the starvation one.

Dramatic and actual, US corn

Dramatic and actual, US corn is  sold to mexico as its part of their staple diet. In the last few years yes poor mexicans have been going hungry...that is actually documented.
Price of US beef and chicken, yes the US chicken lobby for one is complaining about the costs...and that doesnt allow for this event "natural" weather yet.
Much meat is sold to McDonalds as basic priced commodities....so the poor wont be eating much cheaper..
eg
http://www.efeedlink.com/contents/08-02-2012/21fb5269-5df9-43ea-940d-e31...
or,
http://www.wattagnet.com/26158.html
"US poultry industry hit hard by corn prices
Small farmers, large companies alike struggling to remain profitable"
So yes, lets watch them go bankrupt and ppl end up vegitarians, no biggee...
McD's prices rising....
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405274870355580457610177152713109...

How about instead of making assertions based on what you think, you make them based on fact(s).
NB "End of the green revolution will usher in a new age of vegetanarians", yes and no, it will be far more dramatic it will be the "the starvation one".
You get to sit and watch....hopefully NZ will be fine.
regards
 
 

 

Where do consumers get their

Where do consumers get their alternative protein?  Grains, beans, fish, dairy & poultry which are all impacted by the same price/supply/climate issues already in play.

McDonalds, and if they run

McDonalds, and if they run out then Burger King.

KFC doubledown!!!!.....with

KFC doubledown!!!!.....with uh....carrots instead....I can so see that....not.
regards

Gummy wants the Georgie Pie

Gummy wants the Georgie Pie back ! .......

"The miracle... green

"The miracle... green revolution'
how about 'hard science' instead of 'miracle.'

Brazil Deep Water Oil Find

Brazil Deep Water Oil Find ...
July 12th  ..
 
Brazilian state-controlled oil giant Petrobras said it discovered a new deep-water crude deposit in the Espirito Santo basin.
In a regulatory filing Wednesday, Petrobras said the find was made at a water depth of 1,208 meters (3,960 feet) during drilling of the Grana Padano well, located 58 kilometers (36 miles) off the coast of Vitoria, capital of the southeastern state of Espirito Santo.
The deposit is located above the so-called pre-salt layer, a roughly 160,000 sq.-kilometer (62,000 sq.-mile) deep-water area off Brazil's coast that is estimated to hold tens of billions of barrels of crude.
The well is being drilled by a consortium in which Petrobras has a 70 percent stake and private firm IBV Brasil has the remaining 30 percent interest.
"The consortium will continue exploring the block and intends to submit a proposed Assessment Plan to the National Petroleum Agency (ANP) with the aim of delimiting the accumulation discovered and estimating reservoir volumes and productivity," the filing said.

Read more: http://latino.foxnews.com/latino/news/2012/07/12/brazil-petrobras-makes-new-deep-water-oil-find/#ixzz24EFRTh2X

JB : You must be new around

JB : You must be new around here ...... any second now , and the brushbeaters-of-doom are gonna arrive , and rain all over your parade .....
 
....... this is the gloomsterisation zone .......
 
As much as I love the good news ( and a handful of other bloggers do too ) , Bernard and the gang will be mighty ticked off with you ...... tisk , tisk !

10's of billions of barrels,

10's of billions of barrels, each another 3 months supply or offset the decline of current production. I don't see it as gloom, just very interesting

Last figure I saw for Brazil

Last figure I saw for Brazil offshore what 13 billion. The salt and the pressures will be interesting tech issues, but no projected supply-rate is a game-changer.
 
As you say, not gloom (that's just for those who want a particular outcome) but interesting.

9. and really its not even

9. and really its not even started yet.
regards

 #7.  Since Wade v Roe

 #7.  Since Wade v Roe America has murdered 55,000,000 innocents.
Ergphobia  

Have you considered that

Have you considered that every time a bit of knooky is missed on the right date the result is the same? no birth....
Funny thing but Libertarians would say its no ones business but the woman's....interesting clash.....
regards

  Facebook Director Stock

 

Facebook Director Stock Sales Top $1 Billion As Lock-Up Ends
 
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-08-20/facebook-director-thiel-sold-20...

From said link:   "Facebook

From said link:
 
"Facebook last week unlocked 271.1 million shares, the first of five insider-sale restrictions scheduled during the company’s first year as a public company. Another 1.44 billion shares will be freed up through November. "
 
November may well be interesting for The Facebook.
 

  Niall Ferguson on Obama's

 

Niall Ferguson on Obama's Record, Romney-Ryan
 
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/niall-ferguson-on-obama-s-record-romney-r...

PK's comments on Neill F's

PK's comments on Neill F's words which look like outright lies if not misleads...
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/08/21/kinds-of-wrong/
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/08/19/unethical-commentary-newswee...
Not that it matters much, the rednecks will vote anti-obama no matter if it meant a Martian in the Whitehouse.
regards

Cramers Rant on

Cramers Rant on facebook
http://www.cnbc.com/id/48744966

Basic changes need for

Basic changes need for productive growth
 
The New Zealand Manufacturers and Exporters Association (NZMEA) welcome the target of doubling private research and development levels but warn that tinkering around the edges will not help it happen. The Government announced the target this morning as part of its Business Growth Agenda.
 
NZMEA Chief Executive John Walley says, “While our fiscal and monetary policy settings incentivise unproductive investment in assets over investment in productive activity such as research and development, not much is going to change. These policy settings have been locked into our economy for more than twenty years. This desperately needs to change.”
 
“The research and development tax credit was introduced in 2007 and scrapped in 2008 which dealt a blow to added value exporters and we need to see that, or something similar, restored. It is good to see some investment in the Advanced Technology Institutes, but it is worth noting that better balance and incentives to invest are most efficiently delivered through the tax system.”
 
“There is also a wider issue around the allocation of capital in New Zealand. Debt on property is continuing to outstrip investment in the productive sector.”
 
The Economist has released its house-price indicators showing that New Zealand has bucked the global trend of declining house prices by retooling our housing bubble. A lack of capital gains or land tax is at the heart of this problem. House prices 66 percent overvalued compared to rents demonstrate that it is only tax free capital gains that keep property investors in the market.”
 
“A culture change is needed – no country has ever got richer by renting each other houses or borrowing offshore to inflate property bubbles. The Government needs to support its target with changes to fiscal and monetary policy so that we see a genuine shift away from land and buildings towards an economy based on high value exports.”
 
http://www.realeconomy.co.nz/300-basic_changes_needed_for_produ.aspx
 
Poor old NACT they just don't get it. Or do they...., maybe a few in NZ have simply ,".. got richer by renting each other houses or borrowing offshore to inflate property bubbles."
 
"Never was so much owed by so many to so few."
 
Who are our few?
 
Cheers, Les.
www.changenz.co.nz

Les Rudd - interesting

Les Rudd - interesting article and links.
 
I fully agree that "debt on property is outstripping investment in the productive sector".  If a CGT was to be considered there are two very important opposing sides in the event a CGT is implemented, it would work for the Govt when prices increase as they would get revenue form the increase.
However the opposite occurs when house prices decrease and Govt (via the IRD) would have to refund taxes on the loss. In countries with CGT's this has been an issue.
 
While many see the property market as a way to get a free capital gain of which one can either leverage off the increase in value and purchase more housing stock, there have been tax advantages with this business model, the same model can work in reverse in a declining market.  In a declining property market wouldn't tax credits or refunds be available.
While property investment is obviously the target of those advocating a CGT, would it not affect all business that holds property as part of that business activity?
All business has some form of property/land involved in the activity and has benefited by the increase in valuations.  Most business has leveraged off this valuation increase somewhere down the line regardless of how they are structured. The only business activity that does not get any leverage is the business who does not own any property asset and has a lease or similar agreement with a landlord for the supply of property. Many of these small operators end up leveraging off the family home to obtain start-up capital.
 
.
In regards to the unproductive investment in assets regarding property, Supply and demand issues are actually the main driver of this market.  I am quite surprised that the NZMEA who clearly understand supply and demand have not mentioned this in the above. If the NZMEA wants investment dollars into productive activity then it would appear to be in the interests of the NZMEA to propose alternatives to the current land shortages in Councils district plans. Perhaps the NZMEA has already done this but it needs to keep being active until alternatives are implemented which assists in getting the desired cultural-change from investing in housing to investing in the productive sector.
 
Unfortunately for any business involved in the product export industry, you are competing in one of the most hostile complex environments that are affected by internal and external factors beyond the business's control.
I did read an interesting article recently in regards to those offshore Companies who are repatriating funds from NZ earnings and the effect of this on the NZD.  I can see why Bill E is wanting Kiwis to invest offshore - a bit of counter balancing in the equation.
 
 

RBA badly misreads bubble

RBA badly misreads bubble dynamics | | MacroBusiness

 
http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2012/08/rbas-ellis-badly-misreads-bubble-dynamics/ - comment-171015

 
Hugh Pavletich says:
August 22, 2012 at 4:12 pm
It seems clear to me the Reserve Bank of Australia is terrified of the Australian housing bubble bursting – because the consequences are just as clear to them, as they are to the majority of MB readers.
Leith’s   response to Ms Ellis of the RBA is outstanding. A classic.
Indeed I would go so far as to say Leith is a global leader in urban economics, with the rare ability to articulate these issues with exceptional clarity.
Anything above 3 times household earnings or 1.5 times Gross Domestic / State / Metro Product is bubble territory, as I explained in the SMH early last year with REPORT: HOUSING AFFORDABILITY OUT OF SYNC WITH INCOMES –
http://news.domain.com.au/domain/home-investor-centre/report-housing-affordability-out-of-sync-with-incomes-20110202-1ad3m.html
The Annual Demographia Surveys ( 8 to date) are not the most popular documents at the RBA !

Hugh Pavletich
Co author – Annual Demographia Survey
http://www.demographia.com
http://www.PerformanceUrbanPlanning.org

Good article Hugh - thanks

Good article Hugh - thanks again. Everyone blames property investors which has detracted from the real issues of supply and demand and of course the politics that is entrenched in our society.
 
My old French G Grandfather who lived in Kurow knew a bit about supply, demand and politics. I think he used the bad-child, yell and bellow and you get what you want trick but I know he wouldn't have tolerated the rubbish that goes on nowadays.  The PC mumbo-jumbo political and bureaucratic brigagde need to be dismissed.

Why cannot New Zealand

Why cannot New Zealand replicate what Norway has done with its oil resources?  We may be floating on oil but we end up exporting all our sweet crude offshore and the profits go there as well (with a very minor amount to government royalties and some to the richest family in NZ).  What did Norway do right and how can we do the same?

Too late really. Required

Too late really. Required payment in wealth, not debt. (or if paid in debt, the parcel had to be on-passed before it proved worthless.
 
That era has passed.
 
And 'floating on oil' ??????   You a tout?  Let's stick with reality.

NZ doesnt have anywhere near

NZ doesnt have anywhere near what Norway has
regards

We export our sweet as its

We export our sweet as its owned by a private company(s) and import sour as our plant is designed for sour which is also cheaper.
Its extremely unlikey that there is much oil in or around NZ....so really not worth a huge effect in worrying over.
If we did have a decent number of barrels then we should leave it in the ground for our grand children, they are going to be desperate for energy.
regards
 
 

OMG_WTF - different political

OMG_WTF - different political structure. Lots of referendums.
 
 
 

  New Zealand should be

 
New Zealand should be taking urgent strides towards Energy Independence.
A major step to take in this direction is to install 100% renewable electricity NOW.  There is no need to wait for technological breakthroughs in renewables and alternatives, we just need to do it now!


We don't want to depend on Aussie for our gas supply as well!

One of the primary objectives should be to to resist the construction of a LNG (Liquid Natural Gas) import terminal as a contingency for when our gas supplies in Taranaki run down (we have maybe 10 years of gas reserves at the current rate of consumption because we are burning this valuable resource to make electricity, an inherently wasteful thermal process).  Construction of a LNG terminal is the current plan of the gas and electrical industry – this will tie us down to a volatile international LNG market for many years and make us dependent on fossil fuels for our electricity.  We already depend heavily on imported Crude Oil for our transportation – It is probable that any LNG supply contract signed by “New Zealand” companies would be indexed in some way to the Crude Oil price – we must not let ourselves get into this situation.
http://freenrg4nz.wordpress.com/
 

you do realise that nz was

you do realise that nz was rich before because it the UK would buy it all up. there was less competition from other countries ie china and other eu countries.

Yes, I walked away I wont buy

Yes, I walked away I wont buy any food and especially fish from china/vietnam/Thailand. If the chinese dont from preference then that should tell us heaps.
Also what's here in NZ fish (flounder) is so small now its worthless...I have not bought NZ sea fish in 3 months except some farmed salmon. I may have to take up trout fishing......anyone got a hand grenade?
;]
regards

China makes very poor china :

China makes very poor china : Buy Temuka china  from Temuka , instead ; it is closer to New Zealand  than China . And it is very good china .
 
...... do you drink Ceylon tea , or China ?

why did buy a piece of junk

why did buy a piece of junk food.  why not cook something yourself

I went to buy oranges and I

I went to buy oranges and I bought nz ones. not very hard to do.

yep, though I buy OZ produce

yep, though I buy OZ produce if there isnt any NZ.
regards

yep, though I buy OZ produce

yep, though I buy OZ produce if there isnt any NZ.
regards

yep, though I buy OZ produce

yep, though I buy OZ produce if there isnt any NZ.
regards

make it yourself

make it yourself

I am, but the tools are made

I am, but the tools are made in china and the wood as well....
regards

Walk ! ....... oh , it's a

Walk ! ....... oh , it's a French made car ...... you'll be walking soon enough , then ....

Until now , I didn't know

Until now , I didn't know that the Saudis made cars ...... we live and learn ....

You not remember the saudi

You not remember the saudi quattro?

..... we can't get NZ going

..... we can't get NZ going again ....... I think the starter motor has crapped itself ......

Me thinks Gummy might be a

Me thinks Gummy might be a good mechanic. But clearly you've given up. Too bad your heart's here though.:)

Gummy given up ? .......

Gummy given up ? ....... fiddlesticks ! ..... having a sabbatical , .. meeting new folk , sampling the world's cuisine , doing some conservation work , and upskilling at the local TAFE ....
 
....... sometimes the brain-drain works in reverse , and Kiwis come home ........with greater world knowledge and  qualifications ..... 
 
The Gummster  will return ..... eventually ......when Hugh Pavletich becomes PM !

Looks like GBH has gone to

Looks like GBH has gone to the gloomterism side, finally.

Never gonna happen , Anndrew

Never gonna happen , Anndrew R .... too many wonderful people in the world , superb cuisines , and amazing breakthroughs in science , communications & medicine .....
 
....... the Gummster is positively fizzing with excitement & anticipation ........
 
But before all that , let's clobber the Wobblies on Eden Park : Go home Dingo Deans ..... haaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa !

of course if someone will pay

of course if someone will pay for the job here ie. customers,

.... no , not a zero return ,

.... no , not a zero return , .... our biscuit manufacturers stand to make a fortune ; since our troops have  discovered how to grill an  Afghan .....

Love it Mist42nz - just wish

Love it Mist42nz - just wish I could have hit that vote up button several times.
 
Now there's a sales opportunity exporting our taxes and bureaucrats. Certainly no need to worry about the exchange rate.

... . you may as well ... ..

... . you may as well ... .. no one else seems to want the job ....

Hi, This is the Enron NZ

Hi,
This is the Enron NZ (2012) how may we help you?
regards

I was overseas and saw that

I was overseas and saw that meat was from nz. not good enough. it should have been local.

Bell Tea was made in Dunedin

Bell Tea was made in Dunedin .... but I have a niggly-naggly feeling that it wasn't grown there ...... the tea plantations had to make way for the new sports stadium ....

I stayed in an out of the way

I stayed in an out of the way motel the other day.  The place was so old the light bulbs were still made in New Zealand.
 

NZ Heads to Fin... will be

NZ Heads to Fin... will be happy if you report that the cockroaches were also " made in NZ . "

well why dont you make

well why dont you make something yourself and sell it?

I'm sure he could make

I'm sure he could make water.....but he'd be selling into a very small niche market.

Glad you enjoyed it , 'cos

Glad you enjoyed it , 'cos I'm the guy who sticks the little " Made in NZ " labels on your tap water ....
 
..... you gotta be fairly nippy , to stick a label onto running water .....
 
We get the labels made up in Thailand ...

i like the decimal places.

i like the decimal places.

i said to lock the gates!

i said to lock the gates! both ways!!!

we will beat North Korea in

we will beat North Korea in its isolation. down with North Korea. Nz only for Nz!

no no - Faith and Work Units

no no - Faith and Work Units are the future. the present polices are mind control. no one has any choice. down with FEEdom/ more choice!!!!

you leader. master leader!

you leader. master leader!

you not make trouble for our

you not make trouble for our master leader  .... you not become master baiter ....

yes yes -lets be the first

yes yes -lets be the first country to leave earth!

too funny. and complainers

too funny. and complainers like yourself.

cant wait to build my own

cant wait to build my own computer - bit of no 8 wire should do the trick

and a room full of trans

and a room full of trans sisters.
 
Think Bletchley Park.

Growth + Bank Profits =

Growth + Bank Profits = happiness for Kiwi investors who purchased common stock of Aussie banks ...............................

$ 109 pay per day for a New

$ 109 pay per day for a New Zealander ...... that guy must be getting lots of overtime , lucky sod ...

Good luck with that ......

Good luck with that ...... we'll still be here , when you've succeeded in your mission ........
 
....... goodbye , then .........

la la tra lal la la.  though

la la tra lal la la.  though for sume it certain is a hymen quest

Meaning you're in the pro

Meaning you're in the pro creation camp?

oh I'm jsut refutting his

oh I'm jsut refutting his 'not a himan quest' I thought he made a spelling mistake.

NZ does lead the world - its

NZ does lead the world - its the 1st major country that gets the sun each day!