Labour leadership change: Interest.co.nz readers believe installing Ardern and Davis was the right move and that it'll help their election chances

Labour’s move to install Jacinda Ardern and Kelvin Davis as leader and deputy has won over Interest.co.nz readers, who say the move should aid the party’s election chances.

In the first of our election year surveys, we asked two questions: Will Labour’s chances improve due the change, and were these two the right choice? Just over 56% of respondents said yes to the former, and 67% the latter.

We’ll warn now, this isn’t a scientific poll. But we’ve been discussing for a few months whether to run these sort of things as the election approaches. 

We’re expecting to run more of them now, and also expect greater participation rates as people get used to seeing them on the site. We think they could be both fun and insightful. Please let us know what you think.

We had received 223 responses at 4:20pm on Tuesday – the results are below. We’ll update as we collate extra votes.

Question 1: Now that the Labour Party has a new leader, the impact will be…

It will improve Labour’s chances: 56%

It will make no difference: 22%

It will hurt their election chances further: 22%

Other: 0%

Question 2: Was the choice of Jacinda Ardern and Kelvin Davis the right choice?

Yes, this new team is the best they have: 67%

No, Grant Robertson should have been the leader chosen: 14%

No, Phil Twyford should have been the leader chosen: 6%

No, Kelvin Davis should have been the leader chosen: 7%

I would have preferred (someone else): 6%

Update: After 7:00pm we had just over 300 respondents

Here are the results:

We welcome your help to improve our coverage of this issue. Any examples or experiences to relate? Any links to other news, data or research to shed more light on this? Any insight or views on what might happen next or what should happen next? Any errors to correct?

We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment or click on the "Register" link below a comment.

Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current Comment policy is here.

48 Comments

up
19

She's brilliant. Listening to her speak to John Campbell today I find myself agreeing with everything she has to say. I'd like to see her as the next prime minister. I think she can get there too.

Maybe readers are more positive for the reason that there is a higher chance of removing National.
Regardless of who/what is needed to get the job done.

Great news for NZ and the Labour Party. The next PM !!

up
15

The right should be worried. instant lift:

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11897717

The mediocre nats have had it too easy for too long - not any longer

This election will be vote for change.

up
12

Come election. Labour will be between 28 % 32 % and greens will be between 13% to 16% and Winston Peter between 12% to 15% depending how the campaign goes. National between 38% to 42%.

So Winston will be in government.

up
15

Agree. Change is imminent.
Winston is going to have a field day with English's texts on the Barclay fiasco

It's becoming increasingly difficult to deny that Bill English was just plain lying to the public and the media about the Barclay crime and its National Party cover-up.

Twice in one day, going for some kind of record, there was Todd Barclay, and then when questioned about emergency housing tried to say the housing and homeless problem was an hidden one.

I agree with your Labour prediction, but i'd say it'll come at the expense of the Greens. Big call to predict National voters switching to Labour AND Labour voters switching to the Greens, all thanks to Ardern!

I can see the soft woman vote which John Key appealed to, switching over to Jacinda. So Jacinda could definitely move some votes from National to Labour. Also given what we have seen so far, Jacinda is a impressive performer -that has to worth some National to Labour swing votes. My guess is that National are taking very seriously Bill English's -"we shouldn't be complacent" message. But is there anything that National can do about it? Bill has already lost once before to an impressive female leader of the Labour party...... The next 7 weeks just got a lot more interesting.....

Its the people who have been not been turning up to vote that could be the difference not the deckchair re-arranging of the already engaged.
Colmar Brunton don't really highlight it, but last poll had 20% in the 'don't know' category

A Winston/Metiria/Jacinda govt; now That will solve the immigration problem.By exodus.

Not necessarily. You might just be surprised how many kiwis would like a greener and fairer NZ.
I'm sure that would appeal to plenty of liberal Americans and Europeans too.

You could be right Fritz, but the Greens aren't green, Winston will never think anything's fair and Jacinda's teeth will have to turn into fangs.
But where do you exit to, that's the Q, so we'll stay and watch the freakshow play out; definitely think we are in for a change of Govt as the above will declare a temporary truce during and after a whisky session or two or three...then the entertainment will start.
Hope for the best but prepare for the OBR worst.

As long as its not Bill everyones a druggie, lets get rid of NZers and import low cost workers.

Yeah, yeah, yeah, especially now that Australia is such an attractive and welcoming option.

up
14

I have been a right wing voter for the past 2-3 elections and I am seriously looking at voting for this new change because I am a home owner and have done well, but I will happily give up my vote for my 20 year old daughter who is in her third year at Auckland University because I want her to have the same opportunities that I had, to buy her own home, settle down and have both a family and a great career! If she can't do that in Auckland her hometown, then she is well supported and encouraged to move out and she will make a life elsewhere because she is a very resourceful young lady and is very mobile. Her partner is also up for moving out of Auckland too and the regions can benefit from his building experience.

Agree. I too have been voting national but not this time as anything in extreme is bad. 9 years of power has made them arrogant to listen to the voice of the people.

Besides Arrogance has to be humbled.

And how is Labour going to help her? ; sounds like she is quite capable of helping herself..

It will be interesting now, national on the last poll needed NZ first and today in the house BE was giving compliments and being nice to both nz first and the greens. I have no doubt there is a lot going on behind the scenes to get one or the others support The big losers in the next election are the tiny parties as the big 4 fight it out to make up the treasury bench

I feel like the media has been pushing for this move, because they find Little was so boring. If it wasn't for the medias question to little about giving up, I think he would still be the leader. As a result of that, he potentially had the appearance of being weak and not wanting the job.

But it should come down to the actual policies, not personalities or who the leader is. We don't vote for the PM in NZ, were vote for the party. NZers actually have no say who the PM is.

The media lately, always seem to require a whipping boy, in this 'kick 'em when their down' culture that seems to pervade in this country these days. The Nats best get some hardback books down their pants now, in preparation for them being next in line for the post..

Would be interesting to find out what people think in regards Jacinda Adern's ability to hold a cobbled coalition, which includes Winston Peters and Metiria Turei, together after the election. Each wanting a piece of the pie. What portfolio's go where? How long can Winston Peters and the Greens coexist? How long can Winston coexist with Kelvin Davis regarding Maori seats and Maori privilege?

You do realise we currently have a cobbled coalition in goverment ? 4 headed no less.
Kelvin Davis and Winston are buddies from way back ,
Trouble for National.

There was nothing wrong with Andrew Little nor is there anything wrong with Jacinda Ardern. What is wrong is most of the rest of the Labour Caucus. No leader can function with those mill stones.

On the other hand, what good is there in holding on to Nick Smith, Judith Collins, Paula Bennett ...........

She will take votes away from the Greens and there will always be people that will vote for her because they like to see a woman as PM.
Apart from that I think people are starting to understand that every promise for extra spending for this or that will be paid for by reducing spending elsewhere or increasing taxes. People start to realise more and more that they pay for whatever money the government spends. The usual comment by anyone in opposition to whatever the government spends extra money on is "not enough and too late" is starting to wear off.
Promise extra spending to get the votes and see the voters place their trust elsewhere. Anyone who does not have a credible sounding policy of looming tax cuts will start to struggle in the polls.
Policies matter, the person conveying them less so.
(unless you are called Winston)

hopeless as always

I wont be voting for Labour. Jacinda is OK,people will vote for her because she is new and fresh, but hasnt a clue about running a govt, and I dont know about the rest of them. Greens are more practical these days but dont really understand the complexities.

Hasnt a clue based on what evidence exactly ?

What I hope she does is appeal to the disenfranchised youth voter who would normally not even bother going to the polling booth to have their say. I will vote for her based on the fact she was at one of my work BBQ's 18 months ago and ate some of my spicy chicken wings and she obviously survived.

The Interest.co left wing relay team out of the blocks quickly and in unison this morning. An impressive start, baton handed from one to the other smoothly. Then along comes PKchew to spoil the party by pointing out what the gushing media is avoiding discussing - Arderns charisma is not backed by the experience necessary to run the country.

I'm looking forward to the Nat/Labour leaders debates now that I won't fall asleep listening to a pair of clones.

Boredom is underrated - certainly in politics.

Living through the very interesting but convulsively damaging Muldoon/Lange years, I developed a liking for experience, predictability, stability and measured responses.

As a national voter I may be ready to vote Labour,Jacinda spoke well and has a passion that was missing from the Labour Party with Andrew Little
I was walking around Hamilton the other day and shocked at the number of beggars and people sleeping in doorways.
This is not the NZ I was brought up in, the inequality is getting worse
Hopefully Labour might now review their tax policy to sort out some real anomalies that favour the very rich and the speculators
We are becoming a low wage country and all National wants to do is increase the benefits
Let's try and fix the underlying problems that are causing these issues in the first place
We need some long term vision which may have some short term pain but will benefit us in the long term
It's the same with the corporate culture ,all short term so we can get our bonus which is based on this years profit
Time for a change

Income inequality is not 'getting worse' as you assert. Stats NZ data shows it has flatlined for around 10 years. Out of all OECD countries NZ inequality is about mid point on a Gini coefficient basis.
Begging is a lifestyle choice. Hundred of thousands of beneficiaries don't do it.

Once housing is factored in, inequality is getting worse. The honest right wingers like economist Eric Crampton acknowledge this.

Yes, in terms of capital holdings but not in respect of equality of household income. The 10 year data trend line is flat for both 'after' and 'before' housing costs, groups.

http://www.stats.govt.nz/browse_for_stats/snapshots-of-nz/nz-social-indi... of living/income-inequality.aspx

All I know is when I went to Uni in Auckland and Hamilton about 25 years ago, I never saw a beggar, now there are heaps.

This is not a good sign of equality, something has gone seriously wrong.

How strange are you lot of commentators who post here seemingly in favour of change for changes sake. .
Why stop backing the winners?
You have never had it so good.

Yeah right.
I feel a Tui bill board coming on......like

"Mate, you can't fix that with duct tape" or

"I think I will have a lie down before I do that"

Sometimes a little bit of pain is best for the long term good. Having a fractured labour government now will help pave the way for future right wing governments. In recent history ACT gets the most votes when labour are in power.

... the Gnats have had a tin ear to the electorate for the past 9 years ... so long as their rich property investor mates and rich cow cockies were doing fine , all was well ...

Now , finally , the buggers will have to listen closely to what we're telling them ...

1 : $ million dollar houses in Orc Land does not create a strong well balanced economy ...

2 : importation of cheap labour from India and the Philippines does not raise our wages and our productivity ... quite the opposite , actually ...

3 : free water for Chinese bottlers and for Kiwi Cow Cockies does not lead to good outcomes for the country ... our environment is being raided and polluted ... this must stop ...

4 : immediate citizenship for $ billionaire Americans says to the world that we're prostituting our nationality , our citizenship can be bought ... not deserved ...

... I could go on , Big D ... but you get the idea ... and I am a long term centre right voter .... but I'm seriously brassed off with the Key-English Gnats ... fed up to the back teeth with them !

Why complain so bitterly about a single billionaire bringing millions to NZ being granted citizenship when under Helen Clarke we gave citizenship to thousands of substantially less desirable overstayers from the islands.

When you say citizenship should be deserved, how about citizenship only be granted when individuals turn 21 and have had a chance to prove themselves deserving via their academic records and/or net tax contribution to NZ at that point?

How does one deserve citizenship?

BigDaddy - it's because I've come to the realisation tha the 'winners' are actually 'losers' - personality etc...

I'm one of the older generation who likes to watch question time and not to get my political information filtered through the media mouthpieces. I liked Andrew Little's heart but his communication skills were lacking even when up against Bill English. I also saw the arrogance of Jonathan Coleman, the Minister of Health who spent his time simply abusing Annette King instead of actually ensuring decent health outcomes for New Zealanders. Simon Bridges, Nick Smith... the list goes on. It's definitely time for a change and the new Labour party leadership looks like a nice balance that will have a deserved appeal.

An afterthought... what name calling will the dirty tricks section of National (Steven Joyce etc) come up with now... they tried to foist the epithet 'Angry Andy' on to Andrew Little... it's always sad to see name-calling used instead of thorough debate.

One last after-afterthought. Steven Joyce entered parliament in 2008, the same time as Jacinda Ardern. He's simply been fortunate to have had cabinet experience because of the popularity of John Key.