A quarterly survey has found just a net 12% of Aucklanders believe now is a good time to buy property, down from 18% three months earlier as house prices surge to painful levels.
The ASB survey of housing confidence found just a net 4% of Cantabrians thought it was a good time to buy in Christchurch as 77% believed house prices were rising there.
Nationwide housing confidence was broadly steady in the three months to July, although house price expectations continued to surge, ASB said.
The ASB Housing Confidence Index edged up by one point over the quarter, with a net 22% now is a good time to buy, up from 21% in the previous quarter.
ASB Chief Economist Nick Tuffley said the drop in confidence in Auckland reflected tight conditions in the Auckland market.
“Levels of new listings and housing inventory are very low in the region, and the latest drop in confidence suggests it is increasingly becoming a seller’s market. The experience of the mid-2000’s tells us that a weak confidence reading does not imply that people don’t want to buy, just that they view market conditions as challenging from a buyer’s perspective," Tuffley said.
Overall, a net 51% expected prices to rise over the next twelve months, up from 45% the previous quarter.
“Price expectations remain highest in Christchurch and Auckland, which reflects the fact that supply is tightest in these two markets," he said.
Tuffley said house price inflation would be monitored closely by the Reserve Bank.
However, price increases were likely to be constrained in the short term by a cautious approach to debt, weak net migration and modest employment growth, ASB said, adding inflationary pressures were subdued.
"Those factors will encourage the RBNZ to leave the cash rate on hold for the foreseeable future, Tuffley said.
“We expect the OCR to remain on hold until June 2013, with gradual increases occurring from that time. Supply constraints and the low interest rate environment should underpin a continued appreciation in house prices of around 4 percent over the next year on a nationwide basis.”
(Updated to make clear the numbers are net of those saying now is a good time to buy minus those saying it was a bad time to buy)
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63 Comments
"Plenty of steam left in this train".. It will be electrified soon, plus that 3km loopy train of Len Brown for $3 billion is going to break the everyone's bank soon..
Watch this space - Auckland will make the top 10 most expensive city to live.. good on ya Auckland Council!
And the article says:
"However, price increases were likely to be constrained in the short term by a cautious approach to debt, weak net migration and modest employment growth, ASB said, adding inflationary pressures were subdued"
Far from the boom that some spruikers claim
...meanwhile this from the Sydney Morning Herald
...and this is from a country that is doing "extremely well" (depending on your business IMHO)
Anyway, good on the aussies for telling it how it really is and that tax breaks on mortgages for residential investment property are just that, a rort.
But however on this side of the Tasman they still continue, never ever challenged and rents are "propped up" by the accomodation supplement.... what a load of crap !
When will NZ wake up and realise why are we are even giving these PI's any credit ... both financially and morally through the media etc.
And if I hear from one more PI that they are "providing a service" well that is just a bare faced lie.
Hi Crazy Horse.
No. PIs get a bad rap by some on this web site. I can't understand why to be honest so I think it's good to let readers know that we are basically good guys trying to provide a service.
And generally doing a great job at it too.
So rest easy mate...most of us are on your side.
Regards.
My wife and I have waited years for house prices in Auckland to come down to affordable levels. We are both skilled professionals with lots of experience, and qualifications from NZ universities, but even with those, the housing market is still out of reach.
We now have no choice but to leave NZ if we want to own a house. I can't believe that the government just stands by and watches this happen. I suppose it's because the majority of MP's have vested interests - i.e. rental properties. I don't think being able to afford a roof over your head is all that much to ask of a government.
Will NZ'ers ever realise that renting houses out to each other is not the way to improve NZ'ers quality of life?
A property investor in my opinion does two things – denies someone in NZ from owning their home, and makes sure that the rest of us pay more than our fair share of tax. If another PI tries to tell me that property investors provide a service, I think I'll have to slap them.
So goodbye New Zealand, we will come back if you ever you get your act together.
Hi notch, as a PI I feel it is my duty to tell you there has indeed been a concerted campaign to target you and push house prices up to the point where you have not been able to buy.
The campaign struggled when it came to keeping them high, but they believe the worst is behind them and prices will keep rising.
Hence they will be pleased to note their success in forcing you to leave the country. I will inform them at the organising committee's meeting tomorrow evening.
Regards
Your ex-landlord
Yes, I am just but one. But there will be many more. NZ inc will soon become known as baby boomer land, everyone else (who doesnt own property and has half a brain) will have left.
Take some social responsibility for your actions - as a PI you ARE making this country a worse place to live.
Notch
Well put, and I relate to what you say.
Come to Adelaide, and you will find you can buy a good new 3/4 bedroom house, within 30 minutes commute of the CBD, for circa 360-380K, in average / good-ish areas. Apparently you can find similar options in Melbourne too.
In Auckland you'd be lucky to find a new 3/4 bedroom house for under 450K within 30 mins of the CBD.
Both Central and Local Govt in NZ are an absolute disgrace
yes ridiculous, but there's plenty of fools out there!
I love NZ, but I won't return, at least to Auckland. It's totally over expensive for what it is (and I'm not just talking property)
At some stage this nonsense is going to do some serious economic / social damage. It's not if, but when
Amongst many of my friends this is very much the case. Also, people that have been waiting so long and have now resigned themselves to having to pay what they KNOW is an overvalued amount because their lives have gotten to a point where they really do need their own space that they can call their own, put down roots and raise families because they're sick of crappy NZ landlords moving them around like sheep every time they want to jack the rents up by a massive amount.
The cracks are beginning to show. The sad thing is that those who will be hurt the worst will be the ones who waited until ALMOST the right time to make their move. Sadly, I think some of my friends may find themselves in this category.
Hey Notch,
Heres a thought,
Have you ever considered moving out of Auckland,theres houses of considerably lower prices than Auckland in perfectly good locations in both islands for two professional people to have quite a lifestyle(and who knows maybe even a family which can be affordable).
Thanks for the offer, but for now I am happy living in the 5th most liveable city in the world (according to new survey from the Economist). Why, if they measured climate, housing costs, easy access to great beaches and wine regions, then Adelaide might even surpass Melbourne at No. 1
The Asian pressure is certainly very high.
Regrettably they will take a very long time to blend in, if at all. It is a very certain way to get Auckland down the list of liveable cities by losing the influence that all our locally born or long time resident population have made Auckland such a great place to live.
You lot sound like a bunch of small minded provincial types who need to get out more and see and experience the benefits of immigration, instead of sitting around listening to radio redneck.
You think it's only non-asians that make Auckland a great place to live?
What about indians, blacks, germans, sth africans, fijians - do they have any input or are there too many of them also?
Rubbish iconoclast.
Here is Barfoot's top 25:
http://www.barfoot.co.nz/Info/News/Stories/Top-25-press-release.aspx
Only 2 Asian woman in the top 10.
The funny thing is that in the most buoyant suburbs (inner west) there are relatively few Asian buyers or agents.
However it is true unfortunately, that recent immigration hasn't helped the fortunes of most New Zealanders. Why successive Government's look to immigrants and foreign investors as our economic salvation makes no sense to me. Prosperity can be acheived in areas of declining population if there is productive industry (more work for fewer people) - look at Invercargill, despite it's declines it is still a relatively prosperous place with incredibly cheap housing and low unemployment.
From your list .......
That is 7 of 25 from Barfoot alone .
Iconoclast, Barfoots are by far the biggest agency in Auckland (maybe you're not from Auckland and don't know that?). Barfoots top agents will certainly be amongst the top in Auckland, they are not all asian woman and therefore not all of Auckland's top agents are asian woman.
In fact I don't think that Auckland has a ranking of "top salesperson" across ALL agencies. So I guess you are making nonsense up again.
My partner says that she married a white wog foreigner .......
...... so I guess it's only racism when it's directed at you ...... or in this case , at moi ...
When Winnie does it , it's a positive re-affirmation of NZ values , safeguarding the Kiwi way of life .....
....... which make racism seems so clean and spiritual ....... the " Kool Kiwi Klub " ....
Yeah; Christchurch stats are waay out from my experience. The latest suburb-by-suburb figures fall short in year-on-year comparisons: July last year saw the property market in lockdown with tiny numbers of sales in many areas. A beachside sale I was involved with recently saw serious cashed-up buyers competing and paying well over the asking price. Yet that area looks rubbish in the stats.
Any half-decent residential property on okay land is roaring out the door. And some in the cheap end of the market I have looked at have fetched incredible prices, even on TC3.
Northshore is hugely in demand as Southshore red-zoners buy up. Sumner and Redcliffs redzoners and the lily-livered beach-dwellers are off to Riccarton-Ilam-Burnside; usually in the good state school zones.
I don't understand the herd's thinking behind moving to Rolly and Lincoln: right on the "gap" fault and the Greendale, though more stable land than in Christchurch from Hagley Park east to the coast.
@JT.... that is a rahther prejudied view.
This place is in a block of 8 in Auckland's "hot" suburb of Onehunga.
http://www.trademe.co.nz/property/residential/for-sale/auction-504015312.htm
The 8 places are all very similar and three years ago one went for $290,000. two years ago one went for $345,000 and this year one went for $430,000. This one is likely to go for late $400s and it's considered a bargain as there is nothing else in the area that is standalone for near that price.
At this end of the market in suburbs like this demand is outstrippping supply massively. None of them are Chinese owned.
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