By Bernard Hickey
Prime Minister John Key has told first home buyers in Auckland to look at buying apartments to get on the property ladder, although he acknowledged that recent rises in house and land prices in New Zealand's biggest city were not sustainable.
He later said home buyers should be aware that buying property in Auckland was not a one-way bet and that a surge in property supply in Auckland over the next three years may change the equation.
He told TVNZ's Breakfast programme getting on the property ladder had never been easy.
His comments came after Auckland Council released ratings valuations showing house values rose an average 33% over the last three years, including increases in some suburbs in areas where first home buyers have bought.
"You have seen some big increases and I think actually over the last 20 years you've seen very big increases in Auckland which are not sustainable," Key said.
"They don't need to go up that quickly - there is a way of resolving that issue and I think it is dealing with those structural issues, which is basically supply, he said.
Key said he wanted more land released and houses built quickly. Meanwhile, first home buyers needed to look at different options for getting on the property ladder.
"Some people will have to consider going into an apartment for instance, that has been the international change," he said.
"If you're a young person buying your first place in Sydney or Melbourne or Brisbane, in most instances you'll be going into an apartment," he said.
"Buying a house has never, ever been easy."
Key acknowledged that home ownership rates had been on a long term decline.
"The real magic here is what's driving those [price] increases - it's land," he said.
Later news conference
Key later told a news conference after the formal opening of Parliament for the new three year Parliamentary term that
"No. My advice is to believe in the system because it will work for young people," Key said when asked if his advice to young people was to give up on buying a house and instead buy an apartment.
"We're releasing an enormous amount of land at a far faster rate than there's been in the past. It's one of the really key factors driving up those house prices. But yep, buying an apartment is also an option. You've seen that with a lot of young people in Australia. In Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane a lot of people get into apartments," he said, also referring to the Government's ramped up HomeStart subsidy for first home buyers of new homes.
Key said the Auckland capital valuation increases showed housing was an important issue the Government needed to stay focused on "and the only way to really address that is on the supply side."
He said land prices had been rising much faster over the last 20 years than the cost of building.
Key said over 5,000 housing dwellings had been consented in the Special Housing Areas "and we know that 99% of those that are consented are actually built."
Auckland Council figures
However, Auckland Council figures show Auckland Council was considering 60 resource consent applications for 1,184 new sections and homes in the Special Housing Areas, but only 35 building consents had actually been approved so far within the Special Housing Areas.
Of these, there have actually only been 31 consents for new dwelling units and only 5 new houses actually built.
Key said building activity was starting to ramp up through building consent figures and was now up to its previous peak seen in 2007.
Asked about the speed of consenting by the Auckland Council, Key said the Government was monitoring its performance and he was due for a regular meeting with Mayor Len Brown later this week.
"It's not just a matter of land being released under Special Housing Areas, it's homes being built and to build those houses consents have to be granted," he said.
He described the power for the Government to take over consenting from the Council, which is included in the Special Housing Areas legislation, as a last resort.
"At the moment, there has been a marked increase in the number of homes being consented in Auckland," Key said.
He said "in the end" there would tens of thousands of homes built in Special Housing Areas.
"When you take a step back, what is driving those housing prices in Auckland is the very slow release of land and the inability to develop brownfields sites and the Special Housing Areas legislation fixed that," he said.
"It's been a problem that's been around for 30 or 40 years. It's not a problem that developed overnight, and it's not a problem that can be fixed overnight."
Slower house price inflation
Key said the extra supply coming on to the market in Auckland was already slowing down house price inflation there.
"I'd just caution people not to believe it's a one-way bet. There are plenty of times when house prices actually come off and there's now going to be a lot of supply in Auckland," he said.
Asked if he thought house prices would fall, he said: "I wouldn't be surprised if the discussion three years from now is about how many houses are available. There's going to be a helluva lot of houses built over the course of the next three to four years. There's a lot of land released."
Key said the SHAs accounted for tens of thousands of new dwellings. "What the Government probably wants to see is what home-owners want to see: that is a slow, modest escalation in house prices. Ones that gallop away aren't in the interests of home owners or the Government because history shows you as it did in the United States is that it leads to a bubble that has to burst."
Key said his speech from 'the throne' to open Parliament on Tuesday would cover the Government's economic agenda, it's moves to increase housing supply and reducing poverty. It would also cover the issue of referendums on the flag.
Key also said the number of people living in unacceptable conditions had increased a bit in Auckland, but was not dramatically different. He said this was was behind the Government's focus on increasing social housing: "How we get more houses constructed. Whether the state owns them or a provider someone like Presbyterian Support Services owns them is a bit of an irrelevance from the Government's point of view, it's that those houses are built."
Key said his expectation over time was that Auckland house price inflation would fall to "more normalised" levels.
(Updated with more details from news conference)
61 Comments
He is just another rabbit caught in the headlights.
And it is logical to feel powerless if you witness the best educated and briefed people of your generation flounder – as politicians and diplomats have – in the face of a collapse of global order. But for economists – veterans of Lehman Brothers, Enron and the dotcom boom and bust before them – there is a feeling of deja vu. We know what it’s like to get all your preconceptions blown out of the water, and see talented people flounder.
In economics, big, uncontrollable forces are the norm; but by understanding them – by charting the rules of the game we’re supposed to play – we gain the ability to act. So, as one Lehman trader anecdotally told his new recruit before the crash: “Stay here, keep your head down, do nothing extraordinary and in 20 years you will have a Lamborghini, just like me.” Agency in a normal capitalist system is about knowing the rules.
But in a disrupted system, power flies to the extremes. The majority of people feel powerless because the rules no longer apply: you can keep your head down, do nothing extraordinary, and still leave the building with only a cardboard box. Meanwhile, for a tiny minority, disrupted systems seem to endow them with kryptonite powers. Read more
Words, words, and even more words, lip-service
Listen to Bernard Hickey on Radio Live today
In past 12 months since the housing accord and dedicated land release areas, the ACC has issued (exactly) 31 approvals for new houses in those areas
At the 3:11 mark
http://www.radiolive.co.nz/AUDIO-MARCUS-LUSH-Bernard-Hickey-RadioLive-Finance-man
We Now Know the Cost of “Smart City’ Growth Policies.
There is a reason why most US large metropolitan areas don’t practise “smart growth” policies as promoted by Auckland over the past decades. By not adequately planning for residential single family home growth you confer upon the current owners of such properties near monopolistic pricing power and deprive the next generation of working families the birth right their parents and grandparents enjoyed. . Residential sections are ten times the cost per sqm of what average exurbia land is priced at. Developable land needs to be delivered to the market at far less cost that it is today. The reason it is not is mainly to do with restrictive land zoning. Tear down more of those urban boundary walls and then unite more of that land to the city with suitable roadways, light rail, bus lanes, and whatever transit options are needed. Certainly building infrastructure is costly but that is Government’s critical duty. The lessons of Flat Bush and Botany Downs two decades ago should have taught our leaders to plan better.
While we decry the expense of Billions of dollars for roadways and light rail to the “wop wops” the upshot is that billions will instead by wasted by new property owners over the next decades paying totally unproductive higher mortgage interest on the inflated values they have just paid for the single family homes purchased at higher prices due to council caused land shortages. So I for one would rather pay the extra billions in rates or central government taxes and thus pouring money into the economy to make the Super City more liveable. Think about it this way-2014 average Auckland house valuations have come in at $738,000 versus $553,500 three years ago. That difference means current buyers borrowing on that inflated $185,000 @ 6% interest pay $11,000 more interest per year. Over the next decade hundreds of millions of extra interest payments will be forked over to the Aussie Banks on these inflated values brought about by “smart growth” policies.
I hope we can find leaders to provide Smarter Growth than what we have seen for decades. As a society let’s spend money more wisely than causing young families to waste it on interest expense and dooming all but the well off of the next generations to their chance to have a family home with a bit of garden. The market is telling us what people really want-and it’s not what the planners have been giving us.
It's a good, non-partisan way of framing some of the issues. While many people will be celebrating becoming "rich", the extent to which the NZ economy will be affected is really unknown. In a best case scenario, dairy prices and volumes will get stronger and multitudes of little niche industries will be embraced for the value of their productive output which the world will clamour over to pay a preminum for. This should translate into higher incomes, which can then be used to splash out on the seemingly unstoppable house prices. Like the All Blacks, it's best to aim for excellence than to be consumed by doubt.
I've been saying it for years; FHB's need to change their expectations. Those that adapt quickly will find that there are plenty of nice and affordable owner occupier style apartments in Auckland. Very cheap when you consider that your transport costs will likely be 0 if you work in the CBD. In my opinion Precinct building on Lorne Street, Beaumont Quarter and The Quadrant are all great buildings in great locations which all have afforadble options.
"just stay away from leasehold, leaky apartments" - Finally a constructive comment from frazz. In my opinion there are plenty of good deals in the leasehold world, just need a lease with some certainty and yes stay well away from leaky buildings. If you've never lived in a quality apartment I suggest you try it, preferably before offering your opinion on it, or do you speak for everyone?
Haha, your story changes every week. Now your an ex apartment owner, and it was quality, and had a great pool, and you should have kept it, but your comment 5 minutes ago was slagging off apartments...
If your going to keep up your childish online bullying campaign against me and other PIs on here at least get your facts straight frazzBully.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/property/news/article.cfm?c_id=8&objectid=113…
Here is a good article for you Grumpy and drawdown..fun times for apartment owners in downtown Auckland. (Hope I not bullying you)
My story changes every week? My first real estate purchase was an apartment in the 90's, which I sold too early. It was built in the 60's and compared to the rubbish built in the 80, 90's especially in the inner city ridges, it was quality. Problem with you Grumpy is you dont like any sort of criticism but happy to dish it out to others here on the site. Think Im a bully...take a look at your past comments to others here.
You reply to every one of my posts (whilst I never reply to you), call names and generally act like a child. You're an online bully, plain and simple. Usually I just ignore you but I made the mistake this month of thinking you want to contribute to the conversation. I'll go back to ignoring; feel free to have the last say, children like getting the last word.
BTW, I'm not going away, you're obviously trying to silence my freedon of speech through bullying.
Say what!!!! - you Happy are now complaining about online bullying????
GIVE ME A BREAK
You make obnoxious comments to anyone who disagrees with your property "theories" which are usually not backed by data. In fact you believe you're the only one who is right and you're damn rude to anyone who disagree's.
One minute you act like you're the big PI and the next you call others "online bullies"...oh snivel snivel... tear tear....cry cry.
Happy I've been in property for over 20 years and there is no room for wimps. So if you are the real deal like you say, then toughen up mate - and don't give sh#t unless you're man enough to take sh#t.
Wonder what planetarium John Key is living in
He is obviously not following Greg Ninness's articles
Some years ago the Big-4 banks had tough lending rules for apartments
Generally speaking, for some years, it was no more than 50% LVR
According to this, if you can tick all the boxes, the absolute max you can borrow is 80% LVR
http://www.edgemortgages.co.nz/borrowing-for-an-apartment
Icono: bs, i have recently bought an apartment with under 20% deposit, have got far better yield on it than any landed property, and have seen a modest increase in price (this is in welly where the insurance issues of a few years ago are being reversed).
Key:
"I wouldn't be surprised if the discussion three years from now is about how many houses are available. There's going to be a helluva lot of houses built over the course of the next three to four years. There's a lot of land released."
Hence the stupidity in buying in auckland and booking a loss every year on the hope of further capital gains... The money now is going to be made outside of auckland where no builders are located and where yields actually make sense
Sentiment is the only thing auckland property has going for it... which is fueled by the media.
Actual number of properties for sale per capita is not less than many other cities in NZ (i.e no shortage issue). Just more people despirate to buy as they think prices are going up and up.
And history will show that value increase in auck do find their way outside auckland as all of a sudden you have PI's with millions of extra equity not making any more profit.. so they look at highe yielding areas, sparking price rises in these regions as the sleepy first home buyers see prices rising so finally get their a into g and start buying too
The availability of quality houses in Auckland dont match demand. i have been in the market for almost 8months and seen good properties getting snapped up in no time at crazy prices and the not so good ones taking its time. unless other citys in NZ start to grow like Auckland and become attractive to immigrants and companies Auckland property prices going up wont have a ripple effect on other city's. Majority of Auckland buyers are looking to buy in Auckland because thats where they want to base them self and are afraid prices would keep going up and make it difficult by the day.
Yeah right Mr Key .
Key is becoming out of touch .
Does he know some Auckland taradesmen are demanding $50 /hour thats over $100k per annum?.
New Zealand Doctors dont earn that much as a salary .
Key if anyone understands how markets work , particularly free markets .
He also knows that the market is seldom wrong , especially in an almost perfect free market as we have in property .
He also knows that with current levels of migration , and a supply side constraint , that the prices can only go up .
Add that to the outrageous wages demanded by Tradies
Methinks John Key has got this one wrong .
As the shortage of Tradies bites , we see them earning over $50 per hour , thats fueling the price of new builds
GST
ACC
Vehicle
Tools
Accountant/Lawyer
Sick Leave provision
Annual Leave provision
Bad debt provision
Lots of kinds of insurance
Administration: invoicing, banking, tendering/pricing, H&S certification..........
And God help you if you employ someone
Lucky to pocket $15 an hour out of $50 chargeout
There is no market as free as Residential Property in NZ (by way of text book definition of a free market) .
Nothing is as close in terms of non-intereference by the State , full access to info , zero taxes , no transfer duty , free entry ( even to foreigners ) and maximmu market info , fredom to buy and sell , and open forum for sales( Auctions)
Nothing is so open to free market forces not milk , logs , used cars , foodsuffs , hotel rooms , or any otherr commodity ..........nothing .
Even the importation of beans is subject to duties , and controls (MAF)
So what about the 1.1 billion accommodation supplement which is forecast (on this website) to rise dramatically over the next few years! Boom! massive market distorting subsidy which is sucking money away from the government.
Also sucking money from the government are the multitude of tax deductable expenses that CAN be claimed by investors but CANT be claimed by owner occupiers.
1. Interest payments on the mortgage
2. Council rates, and Insurance
3 Legal costs, accountancy fees
4 Maintenance
5 Lots of made up crap like "office expenses", office power", "office internet costs", vehicle costs at 77c/km
6. Depreciation on chattels.
That's just off the top of my head so I've probably left a bunch of stuff out. To me those deductibles look like asymmetric subsidies that bias property investors, many of whom are offshore investors. Recent zerohedge article claims 90% of some Californian properties are purchased by Chinese investors. I wouldn't be surprised if 90% of Kohimarama and Mission bay, and Remuera properties are being purchased by Chinese investors. I dont agree that its a free market, but If it is a free market, then it's totally detrimental for most New Zealanders.
You are correct her Fat Pat. Historically the IRD re-acts when a rort by a few becomes a landslide. The lack of action thus far is baffling. To the young out there perhaps consider teaming up with another couple. You select the house for them to 'buy', they select yours. Rent back to each other and claim the full costs as per landlord. Draw up some water tight agreements to be lodged out of site from IRD. When approriate, gift each other said properties (gift duty is nil). I suspect this arangement is already widespread amongst the professional tax advisors out there.
Why would the average first home buyer or the average kiwi be concerned about who buys up properties in the most expensive suburbs ? I have been to over 10 auctions and over 60 open homes looking for our first home over the past 6 to 8 months and I don’t see any foreign ( non-resident) buyers or many inverters looking at these Houses or buying them. Most investors are interested in buying apartments which kiwi’s aren’t too interested in anyways and apart from the odd sale interest.co.nz focuses on I’ve never really seen a city apartment or town house that was gone up in value significantly since its last sale if within the last 5 years.
The price is set at the margin, and incoming foreign capital pushes all prices up. As I’ve said before on this site they’re not just buying property, they’re buying the future earning potential of doctors lawyers and accountants engineers etc like me who don’t yet own property in Auckland. That’s a massive wealth transfer and it’s being facilitated by generous tax breaks.
So in summary, the elasticity of housing is all but used up, that is the homeowners ability to absorb the increasing cost of housing by working two jobs, low interest rates, cashing in your retirement savings, delay having kids, borrowing off family, and having to buy the cheapest smallest housing type is about your only chance of owning a property.
And it could all be for nothing as Key says - 'Not a one way bet, not sustainable, equation may change with a surge in supply, but buy anyway.
Is this the type of advice he gave at Merrill Lynch?
There's a reason Goldman Sachs got nicknamed the Vampire Squid. Remember they used to take large positions against their own clients. Recommend one thing, book the commissions and then clean up by going the other way. I'm sure they are all much of a muchness.
Nice summary. That just about covers it.
Key really doesn't want to act. Although the average wealth of NZers may have gone up over the last few decades its pretty much all unrealised equity in residential real estate (i.e vapour). There is not a chance in hell that Key will preside over wholesale "destruction" of the nation's wealth.
The real cunning plan is that by the end of this term of parliament if anyone has any questions about affordable housing they will be directed to Major Roberts in whose lap this whole sorry mess is about to be dumped.
This is necessary hot air from Key to cover his bases. He's offered subsidies to help get FHB's into housing. Now if we get any form of correction, at least he's warned them. Also he needs the housing market to slow down. Building all those houses is actually going to be really difficult. If he can slow the market down with hot air instead, why not give that a shot? It's certainly cheaper.
John Key likes to talk the talk of reforming supply issues. But that is it. Nothing has changed in six years. The Special Housing Areas are flawed for many reasons. There is not enough of them, they are mainly in Auckland. Infrastructure -especially transport to bring those new areas into the productive urban region is absent. John Key talks about apartments but will he do anything that will allow new supply of apartments onto the market at a cheaper rate? Will there be a RMA free zone in Epsom.
Of course as others have pointed out. Other housing supply and demand factors are ignored by John.
Really the only way to deal with such a slick talker is on evidence and outcomes. My bet is in three years time there will be bugger all evidence that housing affordability has improved.
The amazing thing is that people in this country actually still believe things that come out of keys mouth.
Why even listen to what he says, you know what he's going to say before he's said it, basically he going to do nothing about it, and try to tell you that it's is in no way his fault at all.
According to Key it will always either be the previous governments fault, the public service, the council, or any of a number of other scapegoats.
Winning elections doesn't really prove much, when all the media is on your side.
George Bush did pretty well in elections too, and look at what a complete muppet that guy was.
who is incidentally a guy that seems to have similar policies for the middle east as Key does.
John Key MUST SIGNAL the gradual removal of the accomodation supplement over say the next 3 years .
The accomodation supplement has put RENTS ON STEROIDS , and the only winners are landlords .
Its BS that ultimately the Kiiw Taxpayer is subsidising property investors and property speculators at the lower end of the market .
Its nothing but a subsidy for propery investors and has hoplessly distorted the rental market
"almost certainly", LOL....so no evidence? data? proof? you talk utter rot IMHO.
Well actually crime seems to have been quite endemic is socially deprived areas, or maybe yoy have never read about the victorian era? Or even other similar? for instance when steel works went away from parts of wales these deprived areas had high crime and bad health. So really welfare payouts are like crime just another symptom of the underlying issues, no work = desperation and social instability.
Take away welfare are we'd turn into South Africa where the well off live in armed and armoured enclaves.
I suggest you go visit, good luck with that.
regards
The other thing about this whole property schemozzle:
OK, defined as:
- borrowing munny and
- paying interest thereupon, in order to
- bid up prices on
- an essentially fixed (when houise numbers versus population numbers are compared area by area) supply of houses
is that it is the oldest conundrum of all.
In order to unwind it all (defined as returning the median multiple to historical averages of low 3's) it would be necessary to:
- have housing prices plateau for a few decades and let wage inflation cure the multiple
- de-opolise the building materials industry
- free enough buildable and infrastructure-capable land for purchase at near-rural prices to remove planning gain
- allow owners to build their own houses
- expedite factory built homes of sufficient quality and volume to compete build costs down
- remove tax and other perverse incentives which privilege property over other forms of investment
- be ruthless about capturing CG via tax and other clawbacks, and applying the revenue thus found for the social good e.g. social housing
- and no doubt many more
Not a single one of these is politically palatable: every single one has immense lobby groups and deep pockets, or patch-protection teams (think, TLA's...).
So it ain't gonna happen.
Not nicely or democratically, anyways.
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