Auckland's median house price down $50,000 in January - REINZ

Property

Downturn hits Auckland housing market with prices and sales volumes falling substantially last month

11th Feb 16, 1:14pm by Greg Ninness

The over-heated Auckland housing market appears to finally have run out of puff, with the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand's median Auckland selling price dropping by $50,000 (-6.5%) last month.

According to the REINZ, the median selling price of homes sold in the Auckland region last month was $720,000, compared to $770,000 in December.

However January's median was still up 9.1% compared with January last year.

There was also a big drop in the number of sales, with 1526 Auckland homes being sold by REINZ members in January, down 13.5% compared with January last year.

The areas that were most affected by the decline in prices were the central Auckland suburbs that fell within the boundaries of the former Auckland City Council prior to the super city amalgamation.

Within those areas, the median selling price declined from $867,000 in December to $790,000 in January, a slide of $77,000 (-8.9%) while the number of sales was down 13.6% compared to a year earlier.

That was followed by Manukau where the median price slid by 7.9% for the month to $700,000 from $760,00 in December, Waitakere where the median selling price dropped from $717,500 in December to $685,000 in January (-4.5%), and North Shore where the median price dropped from $910,000 in December to $870,000 in January (-4.4%).

Rodney was the only district within Auckland to go against the trend, recording a 6.5% increase in the median selling price which rose from $745,000 in December to $793,750 in December.

Prices also dropped considerably in most other parts of the country, including the so-called "halo" cities like Hamilton and Tauranga which have been attracting Auckland investors seeking higher yields, which has helped to push up prices.

In Hamilton the median price dropped from $449,500 in December to $388,000 in January (-13.7%) and in Tauranga the median dropped from $470,000 in December to $440,000 in January (-6.4%).

In the Wellington region the median price dropped from $436,000 in December to $394,000 in January (-9.6%) and in Christchurch the median price was unchanged at $440,000.

Other cities to record declines in January's median selling price compared to December were Whangarei (-3.1%), Napier (-4.3%), Hastings (-2%), Palmerston North (-5.3%), Whanganui (-11.5%), New Plymouth (-1.2%), Nelson (-1.2%), Timaru (-6.2%), and Dunedin (-2.9%).

Median price - REINZ

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Source: REINZ

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104 Comments

by Chris-M | 12th Feb 16, 9:34am 1455222897

Still a long way to go before approaching sanity.

by Zombie ponzi | 11th Feb 16, 1:26pm 1455150393

And a few more months until we really know where prices are going. Lots of new Auckland listings in the last week.

Still, median price back to early 2015 levels is a good start.

by gordon | 11th Feb 16, 1:32pm 1455150739

Wow this will scare a few more speculators onto the market. It is not nice to sit there and watch prices drop and realise that you are now paying interest and capital on a loan, part of which no longer has any equity supporting it. Those who bought late last year including FHBers will be buying more than their usual quota of toilet paper today.

by Odyssey | 11th Feb 16, 1:41pm 1455151272

I would say even those who bought middle of last year will be in trouble, the median price is almost back to early 2015 level.

by sferris | 11th Feb 16, 1:38pm 1455151103

Anyone got access to see how the index has performed? Would be quite interesting to see...

by Keyser Söze | 11th Feb 16, 2:07pm 1455152842

Auckland stratified index down about 2.4% from December and 8.3% from September.

by Simon | 11th Feb 16, 2:21pm 1455153715

what, the index has dropped 2.4% in one month (jan index level compared to dec)???

Thats more of a news item, as this reflects actual house price moves (as opposed to median price varying with the different mix being sold).

So 8.3% down since sept, thats a lot, and last month appears to be the biggest drop, or at least the trend maintaining a price decline at break neck speeds.

If the next 4 months continue this trend you'll be looking at close to a 20% price cut for auckland property. Herd mentality, once the flow starts its hard to stop, as far as prices over shot to the upside due to animal spirits there's a real risk they may over-shot to down side also; Id hate to be owning anything in auckland right now.

by ex agent | 11th Feb 16, 2:33pm 1455154407

Fear is a terrible thing. For so long Aucklanders said their houses were worth so much. Now they cannot say that with the same confidence. More speculators and highly leveraged investors will look to sell now. This is not the time to be paying interest on a capital item where values tend to be trending down. Negative equity on housing is hard to cope with as it involves losses on an item you paid a lot of money for hence the loses can be hefty in size.

by KH | 11th Feb 16, 1:40pm 1455151207

This is only a little indicator. But we have several little indicators now and the picture is becoming firmer everyday. Don't hold your breath for the big indicator because you won't be able to see it until next year when you look right back.

by Penguin | 11th Feb 16, 1:41pm 1455151311

The property speculators have another headache today as the Auckland council are stalling on the Unitary Plan. They have been paying huge prices in areas where there was a proposed change.

by Independent_Observer | 11th Feb 16, 1:54pm 1455152075

But Auckland has been named as the 4th most international city in the world. This must therefore mean that house prices will continue to climb for ever and ever. I'm so terribly confused....

by SpaceX | 11th Feb 16, 1:57pm 1455152226

It begins....

by ex agent | 11th Feb 16, 2:18pm 1455153493

I have to say I was surprised to see so many people still buying in Auckland from September last year when the data coming out showed a trending down in prices. Don' t people read the news. Don't they take advice. If the current trend continues you will have a reasonable number of people in negative equity, especially first home buyers who bought last year. Sucked in by agents, the Herald and its daily support of the real estate industry, brokers, valuers, and everyone else who lives off the industry.

by Chairman Moa | 11th Feb 16, 2:23pm 1455153782

all scare mongering, someone mentioned few years back that there were thousands of emptied properties in Hamilton !!

by ex agent | 11th Feb 16, 4:01pm 1455159662

Play the ball not the man. Hamilton was quiet then. Not sure the current momentum will continue. I hear there are a lot of rentals needing occupation.

by Zombie ponzi | 11th Feb 16, 3:33pm 1455158027

The Herald indeed! This news release was buried deep down in the bowels of their website.

by kpnuts | 11th Feb 16, 7:37pm 1455172670

and stuff.co just as bad - headline house sales and prices up but data seen as weak - UP????? compared to what oh yes a year ago - next it will be house prices doubled ......since 2001 !

by Man in the Street | 11th Feb 16, 5:12pm 1455163975

And don't forget that over the last 2 or 3 decades there has been whole new industries built upon the traditional real estate industry platform: mortgage brokers, private property inspectors, home-stagers, professional house photographers, dedicated real estate publishers, television programmes, journalists and sundry commentators, ad nauseum. In fact, I'm sure the main reason our recent employment rate has increased is due to these new real estate industry add-ons.
As the market reverses these 'extras' will still be employed; even some new ones could be added
such as dedicated real estate psychologists to counsel morgagee-sale victims.
On the whole, I think that the creation of new specialist industries within older service industries is possibly the only way future economies can try to maintain full employment.

by notaneconomist | 11th Feb 16, 2:28pm 1455154116

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/76782286/sellers-of-auckland-houses-now…

by BadRobot | 11th Feb 16, 10:23pm 1455182581

Want does not equal get......

by frazz | 11th Feb 16, 2:39pm 1455154770

"Some people are dreaming that Auckland house price will fall, but it won't. Dreams are free! To many speculators here, they don't play game, other people make money and they regret!
(Quote Bloody Immigrant 2 days ago)

by CJ099 | 11th Feb 16, 9:21pm 1455178886

It's going to drop! You can't have 39% of the Investor market disappear over night without any impact. Wake up!

by JimboJones | 11th Feb 16, 2:46pm 1455155215

There seems to be a drop from December to January in every year I've looked at in that chart above.
The market may be dropping, but a drop from one month to the next is hardly evidence!

by sferris | 11th Feb 16, 2:57pm 1455155840

I agree but the quantum of the drop suggests some of it may not be seasonal.

by gordon | 11th Feb 16, 2:58pm 1455155926

IRD and toughening up in terms of getting dirty money out of China. Other assets dropping in value such as shares and farms. Things have changed slightly.

by Highspeedsteel | 11th Feb 16, 3:00pm 1455156036

I noticed the exact same thing, this years is at the larger end but 13/14 had a similar drop in $ terms.

by buzby | 11th Feb 16, 3:20pm 1455157218

I thought the seasonal factor was volume of sales rather than price. In our area I certainly didn't get the impression vendors were offering post Christmas discounts if they thought prices would rise again in Feb.

by xelnaga | 11th Feb 16, 5:37pm 1455165433

Volumes lead prices.

by gordon | 11th Feb 16, 3:03pm 1455156237

No article in the Herald about this yet. Must be in a meeting with The REINZ. Only item on agenda. What do you want the Herald to say about this sizeable drop or rather what spin should we put on it .

by Zombie ponzi | 11th Feb 16, 3:36pm 1455158178

There is an article up now. But it wasn't in the newsfeed, it was hidden down in the business section.

by Just a farmer | 11th Feb 16, 9:04pm 1455177844

I see the article now, amazing the spin they put on it.
It is mostly about how house prices are up so much since last January etc, and a little note at the end saying that there was a big drop December-January, but it probably doesn't mean anything.
I read it on Stuff, suppose Barfoot and Thompson pays them good advertising dollars to paint Auckland property in a positive light.
Or maybe I'm just cynical.

by xelnaga | 11th Feb 16, 9:43pm 1455180189

Real estate and media are hand in glove.

by Conrad | 12th Feb 16, 9:18am 1455221910

Who else still advertises in newspapers? The papers know how their bread is buttered and have a major incentive not to spook the real estate goose.

by Austin Fisher | 12th Feb 16, 8:12pm 1455261123

My eyes were opened to this some years ago and once you notice it, you can't help but conclude that mainstream media and the real estate agent companies are rather too much in cahoots. The Herald is basically the Property Press and Mediaworks outlets report on The Block as if it's news. It won't be long before Mike McRoberts reports live from an Auckland suburb because a splashback has been installed incorrectly.

by O.Farr-Kinnell | 12th Feb 16, 9:05pm 1455264331

Long as it's not Hoskings. :)

by kemistry | 11th Feb 16, 3:23pm 1455157415

Next month will be more interesting viewing...

I just wonder, while most people are looking at the last few months and seeing price drops in the Auckland housing market and gleefully predicting a doomsday scenario, how many investors are out there looking at this from a different angle of, "wow, I'm going to grab a few bargains here".

If i was an investor, I would wait another month as It's highly likely the prices will drop slightly again, and then go in search of some bargains, to the tipping point where it will snowball back again with a rush of investors grabbing property before the prices rise again (which in turn will push the prices up). Nobody like to miss out on a bargain, certainly not investors.

I've said on here before I'm far from anything that would resemble an economist etc etc but just a casual observer with no skin on the line .. I bid you good day !!

by tim12 | 11th Feb 16, 5:05pm 1455163554

If property drops past a certain level the banks may tighten their lending as they may be wary of losing money ( as with dairy farming) which could start a downward spiral of tightening credit and falling values, with only the cashed up being able to buy. Could we be heading for a credit crisis, that will have little to do with a specific sector like property or farming but a tightening of credit which could push asset values down to levels that reflect incomes more than capital gain? Saw Yellen on CNN news this morning and she indicated a desire to raise rather than go negative like Japan.

by Just a farmer | 11th Feb 16, 4:45pm 1455162341

The combination of rural asset values and Auckland house prices falling at the same time would cause credit to tighten very quickly.
This could be nearly a perfect storm for the NZ banking industry.

by surfisup | 11th Feb 16, 8:27pm 1455175661

It depends , investors are already looking outside auckland and may decide this is a trend and dump.

But, realistically once the chinese get their heads around the new rules it will increase again. Vancouvers market is driven by the chinese and their avg prices are heading towards 3 million.

by jerry_NZ | 11th Feb 16, 3:24pm 1455157469

Interesting times in front of us. yes migration is booming but do we expect that every migrant has $150.000 to even start to talk to the bank about the mortgage? Is there enough local investors/speculators to pay ridiculous prices for the properties? Will the Chinese buyers come back?
The fact is even if there may be a slowdown there is not many properties with good value. Even if there are 'tastefully renovated' they are done quickly and poorly using cheap materials, bathrooms and appliances from local store. It may be that the prices will drop - my feeling is that the crap will become crap (cheap) but reasonable properties on a good street will still hold the value....

by economist | 11th Feb 16, 3:27pm 1455157670

A much needed (and overdue) correction. If it turns out to be a significant downturn is still too early to tell.

I live in Auckland, a fall from peak of $100,000 is very healthy (and a relief), it was getting to look too much like a bubble (and none of NZ wants a bubble in AKL and the fall out from such imploding). It does look like double digit growth for Auckland this cycle is over, but as long as interest rates remain at record lows, employment healthy and record immigration it's hard to see a significant price collapse. I wouldn't be surprised to see some of this fall clawed back over coming months.

by J.C. | 11th Feb 16, 4:02pm 1455159739

Really? Do you have any idea what it could possibly do to consumer spending? I don't. But if you do, feel free to share with a quant-based narrative if possible.

by economist | 11th Feb 16, 9:19pm 1455178766

I think it will have little effect on overall consumer spending, only complete idiots would have thought Auckland prices would continue at 15% plus forever and acted accordingly (leveraging to the max to buy consumerables they don't need). I believe 99% of Aucklanders are not complete idiots and will carry on in the same manner they have been. The idea of using every last drop of home equity as a credit card isn't like it was back in 2006.

With a thousand migrants coming off the plane each week - all needing everything from appliances to cars to clothes to utilities to food to accomodation to whatever, consumer spending will just continue ho-hum.

by J.C. | 11th Feb 16, 9:35pm 1455179720

Well that's an "opinion" in a world where the propensity to consume has been driven by the wealth effect.

by Sluggy | 12th Feb 16, 8:08am 1455217712

I think plenty of Aucklanders are feeling very smug and wealthy. Builders doing renovation work are flat out (talk of $1m plus renos is not uncommon). I work in the Swimming Pool industry, this industry has never been busier, at an average cost of around 60k a pool, the biggest in Auckland has gone from roughly 100 pools a year 3 years ago to 250 plus a year.
My assumption here is that this is not funded by savings but debt. Im riding the wave as I supply product to these guys, make hay while the sun shines, stack away some nuts.... Winter is coming...

by sharetrader | 12th Feb 16, 8:17am 1455218273

plenty of pools to drown ones sorrows

by rastus1 | 11th Feb 16, 3:37pm 1455158241

...if I were the Chinese I would sit and wait. Watch the dairy impact wreck havoc, watch the house price crash .....Open the wallet when at bottom, vacume up whats left and when ready, open the doors to our (their) dairy again. I have postulated such a scenario before...sad to see it playing out when it is a patently obvious path to follow.

by frazz | 11th Feb 16, 4:06pm 1455159998

Huh...so under your scenario the clever Chinese brought at the bottom of market, and now will open up the buying of milk powder so that prices go back up, and then sell back to us kiwis. More cunning than a fox up a drainpipe

by rastus1 | 11th Feb 16, 4:54pm 1455162874

...nope. The Chinese control our economy via milk access and tradeables. They have turned this tap off, they can turn it back in whenever they wish (hence our desperation to join the Tpp). Enough Chinese have been allowed to pump the market up ensure kiwis indebted themselves. Now they pull the pin and wait..........farmers and Auckland ppty investors to the sword...enough to drag us all down.

by tim12 | 11th Feb 16, 7:00pm 1455170408

If a crash happens it will be bad. In this case the TPPA would not go ahead, foreign asset sales will be stopped, these policies were only invented to protect the credit driven bubble. Once the bubble has burst globalisation will reverse. The bullshit and lies will stop. I believe that's what happened in the great depression

by SpaceX | 11th Feb 16, 7:37pm 1455172637

I wish what you were saying was true.

by HW | 11th Feb 16, 4:09pm 1455160183

The REINZ monthly stats are very up-to-date but jump around a lot. The best way to pick a trend is to use a three month rolling average (with a sufficiently large sample size). Here it is for Auckland using the REINZ stats:
June 2015 = 741,000, July 746,000, Aug 743,000, Sep 748,000, Oct 753,000, Nov 761,000, Dec 761,000, Jan 2016 = 751,000.
Taken together with the latest QV stats there is strong evidence to suggest that the Auckland market plateaued in the latter part of 2015 and continues to plateau (or perhaps to dip very slightly). Whether we like it or not, the stats are the best evidence we have. Anecdotal evidence is just not good enough.

by J.C. | 11th Feb 16, 5:05pm 1455163536

Like your way of communicating.

by SpaceX | 11th Feb 16, 6:14pm 1455167696

Denial, the first stage is always denial.

by Yvil | 11th Feb 16, 4:25pm 1455161117

Wow these are big drops ! I understand why Auckland prices are dropping (too high to start with & new local lending rules) but why is the rest of the country's values dropping ? Most areas are barely above 2008 level

by Carlos67 | 11th Feb 16, 5:00pm 1455163230

Did anyone actually bother to look at the graph before they started typing ? There are peaks an dips all the way but overall its heading in the same direction since 2013. It gets pretty boring listen to what you house price is doing every single day. Yes we could be in for even another month of drops but then don't be surprised if it starts going up again. We need to see a few months of falls before it actually becomes a new trend.

by ex agent | 11th Feb 16, 5:06pm 1455163591

You have had four more months drops already using the stratified index data. How many more do you need Carlos. By the way this is the most accurate data and the REINZ make you pay for it.

by J.C. | 11th Feb 16, 5:08pm 1455163722

If you're "not surprised" that prices will go up, then you probably shouldn't be surprised if prices go down. Why is 2013 a relevant departure point for assuming a trendline?

by Chairman Moa | 11th Feb 16, 5:11pm 1455163915

Carlos, even in Sydney (and Melbourne) where in the last four years price increase has been massive, way more than Auckland. Sydney price has now dropped 3-5% in the last 6 months and auction clearance rate is now around 50%, down from 90+%.

by skudiv | 11th Feb 16, 5:09pm 1455163764

Days to sell are ramping up.

by Penguin | 11th Feb 16, 5:16pm 1455164183

Hong Kong property has also fallen 10% since September as well and consensus is that it is going to have a tough year. Caution remains the word for now and don't believe everything an estate agent tells you!

by Andrewj | 11th Feb 16, 5:27pm 1455164875

We will soon find out, if it was just a bubble.

by zorro15 | 11th Feb 16, 5:45pm 1455165934

Ex Agent is quite correct the Auckland property market has been dropping since September 2015, September 2015 median $771,000, October 2015 $765,000, November 2015 $765,000, December 2015 $760,000 and now January $700,000. It seems some of you out there don't believe that an over-priced asset can ever lose value, maybe you should check out what is happening to world equity markets at the moment. HW has a good idea from a mathematical point of view but you are not comparing like with like. Because of the changes in September and October of last year the first of your calculations that would include the changes for 3 months would be January 2015. Another way to look whether Auckland house prices are falling would be to compare current median prices with their peak month from last year, Manukau -7.9%, Waitakere -7.6%, North Shore -9.2%, Auckland - 9.2%.

by Zak | 11th Feb 16, 6:05pm 1455167134

I think that if people say the Real estate agents are the decision makers when it comes to what people sell and buy for, then they are insulting the intelligence of buyer and sellers.

by sharetrader | 11th Feb 16, 6:52pm 1455169965

how come all I hear is my RE said I can get this or that for my house. some are very well trained in reading and exploiting emotion to get that last dollar. for most people buying a home is an emotional one.
investors different kettle of fish all about money and greed

by mgdwalker | 11th Feb 16, 6:29pm 1455168592

The global economy has added 50 trillion USD since 2008. Everyone expected much more deleveraging post GFC. The central banks coordinated a massive increase in liquidity, adding debt to more debt and creating more instability. What we may be seeing now is a renewed loss of confidence in the debt markets in the face of the Fed increasing rates and starting to withdraw USD liquidity while the global economy is struggling to grow. This external event (possibly a debt liquidation, either orderly or disorderly), is likely to impact NZ housing as NZ banks are negatively impacted by the global deleveraging process.

by mgdwalker | 11th Feb 16, 6:33pm 1455168792

Correction: The global economy has added 50 trillion of USD DEBT since 2008

by keywest | 11th Feb 16, 10:51pm 1455184292

Still up 10% v last Jan, historically Jan always less than Dec, have you noticed the anecdotal evidence of nothing for sale in Ponsonby in Jan on trade me, while everyones snapping up crap box apartments, Yes a level off but auckland prices are going nowhere, any new builds will get hit, but any desirable antique inner city house will hold their value, anyone can build a crap box, but you can't rebuild something that is one hundred years old

by doublegz | 11th Feb 16, 10:23pm 1455182580

I like this "any desirable antique inner city houses will hold their value" thank you :-)

by xk | 11th Feb 16, 9:10pm 1455178232

As always, these are bald stats. Surely what is most important is the number of sales in each value band, compared with other months. Are these skewed by a preponderance of apartment sales, for example?

by CJ099 | 11th Feb 16, 9:24pm 1455179043

Well you have to do more research then that and look at the bigger picture of what's really happening. And reality is - Asia has left the building. ;)

by sharetrader | 11th Feb 16, 11:28pm 1455186523

but JK said foreign buyers were not a problem, he cant have been making it up

again
http://www.newshub.co.nz/business/foreigners-buying-houses-not-a-proble…

by iconoclast | 12th Feb 16, 8:15am 1455218124

did you believe him?

by Shogun | 11th Feb 16, 11:30pm 1455186656

It's a good news for real investors than FHB's to buy some more! Any time is a good time to buy houses in Auckland, the yield is still much better compared to Melbourne. Keep buying atleast one house a year, you will not go wrong atleast till 2020 may be beyond!

by sharetrader | 12th Feb 16, 8:07am 1455217663

good luck finding someone to fund it, in case you didn't notice a lot of the worlds banks are getting hammered, credit is not very far away from freezing again, banks will start to call in high LVR loans to shore up balance sheets

by Shogun | 12th Feb 16, 1:14pm 1455236044

Simple answer, be prudent with cash flow then funding will be taken care off!

by iconoclast | 12th Feb 16, 8:12am 1455217939

FACT: Prices are always set at the margin - it only takes one or two to knock over the dominoes

We have known for 7 years that asian buying at any price was having an impact
The government's ill-thought out residency requirement of $1½ million cash indirectly set the entry price for a house at $1½ million - and that's exactly what happened

That this was hapening was well known
The government could never officially acknowledge that as it would set off racial tensions
The continual denials were for public consumption

That the government privately never took steps to control it defied logic

Harsh steps by the Chinese government have momentarily collapsed the exodus of capital out of China
Simultaneously, prices in Auckland, Sydney and Melbourne start going down

If Asian money wasn't setting prices in the first place, then
Why is the absence of Asian money now deflating prices

by Justice | 12th Feb 16, 9:49pm 1455266997

That the government privately never took steps to control it defied logic?

Not really, who were the biggest private donors to the National Party ya reckon?

by sharetrader | 12th Feb 16, 11:37am 1455230275

had a chuckle at the herald this morning to stories telling investors where to go to bump up prices now that auckland is a dead duck, quick head to gisborne and rotorua
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=115…
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/rotorua-daily-post/news/article.cfm?c_id=1503…

by buzby | 12th Feb 16, 12:56pm 1455234972

It's like money is burning holes in people's pockets. Isn't it just better to sit tight in these seriously uncertain times. I've just had a cold caller from NZ Invest telling me that now is the time to invest in property. Are they serious? Leave us alone.

by zorro15 | 12th Feb 16, 7:22pm 1455258176

Have decided to come up with a new Auckland house price measure called the Zorro-meter. What the Zorro-meter tracks is the amount of trade me listings ( 4-sale, 3Bdr +) for the following suburbs, Waitakere, Manukau and North Shore, others excluded due to REINZ lack of comparable data, etc. Anyway, the Zorro-meter started its base at 2 weeks ago, 29/1/2016, so has been running for a 2 weeks at the present time. Results show that for the 2 weeks in question for sale listings have increased by 14.6%. Is this a seasonable adjustment or is it something else. Remember, that increased demand leads to reduced prices, or so economic theory tells us. I welcome your feedback, should I keep the Zorro-meter going, does it mean anything?

by zorro15 | 12th Feb 16, 7:37pm 1455259037

Sorry, too many beers should have been increased supply leads to decreased prices.

by Penguin | 12th Feb 16, 7:56pm 1455260195

Zorro. It is a reasonable indicator but as you suggest their are seasonal influences. Listings always increase at this time of year after the holiday lull.

I suspect the median house price in Auckland might firm up in the next 3 months but that will only be temporary. Why? Immigration from the Northern hemisphere peaks now and they tend to have to buy property which typically is well above the median. Once that is over the trend will probably be downwards but a lot will depend on the state of the rest of the world.

by xelnaga | 12th Feb 16, 9:33pm 1455266017

I wonder if Tony Alexander became 6.5% less smug last month.

by Kakapo | 12th Feb 16, 10:08pm 1455268080

Nobody can tell. He broke the smug-o-meter.

by Kakapo | 12th Feb 16, 10:08pm 1455268082

Nobody can tell. He broke the smug-o-meter.

by bloodymigrant | 13th Feb 16, 10:52am 1455313979

I think wait for Chinese new Year, another $15 billion coming to NZ for real estate investment.

by ex agent | 13th Feb 16, 11:03am 1455314604

You are joking of course. How do you get to a figure of $15 Billion. I thought some people were predicting $20Billion. 30 Billion even. Of course the Chinese government which is cracking down on everything including journalism will allow that to happen when their economy is back peddling.

by sharetrader | 14th Feb 16, 11:21pm 1455445306

they are cracking down as it affecting their FX reserves they are chewing through Billions
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/02/07/china-fx-reserves-fall-almost-100b-to-lo…

by xelnaga | 13th Feb 16, 3:07pm 1455329249

I heard it was $150 billion and they would come riding on fire breathing unicorns.

That shady Conovationz guy said it won't be until May though. Which is good, because Chinese New Year was last week and I was hoping not to wait until 2017.

by two otherguys | 14th Feb 16, 11:48am 1455403684

If the crackdown is effective and the maximum currency any individual can transfer out is $50,000 per annum then how many purse-holders must arrive in NZ to achieve $15 billion

Answer. 300,000 principals and heads-of-family not including the associated family retinue

by delboy | 13th Feb 16, 5:12pm 1455336739

Last month I heard there was a backlog of 8000 requests from Chinese for IRD numbers.
Two weeks ago I was told there was a backlog of 12,000 requests.
Yesterday I was told its 41,000!

I would like to know if its true or a false rumour?

by xelnaga | 13th Feb 16, 8:55pm 1455350154

It's Chinese whispers

by doublegz | 14th Feb 16, 10:19am 1455398386

Just found out the sold price for this property where the tender closed on 9th Feb. Guess how much? Hint: It's in Double GZ ;-)
https://www.barfoot.co.nz/560653

by xelnaga | 14th Feb 16, 10:41am 1455399680

Let me guess... a billion yuan? How exciting!

by bigblue | 14th Feb 16, 11:21am 1455402090

Was it $3.25m?

by doublegz | 14th Feb 16, 2:18pm 1455412682

It went for > $4m guys. It's about right for that location :-)

by sharetrader | 14th Feb 16, 11:13pm 1455444808

funny I have seen a Chinese person getting an IRD number same week they applied,
guess they were a lot luckier than the 41000

by kiwiguy | 15th Feb 16, 2:41am 1455457305

Someone posted on the property talk forums that a relative got their IRD number in one day recently.

by Penguin | 14th Feb 16, 3:17pm 1455416268

The Introduction of the IRD number is not just for cross referencing with the Chinese Authorities it is also for a future wealth tax for international owners. Similar things are happening in the London market.

by bigblue | 14th Feb 16, 9:03pm 1455437021

What will happen to a buyer who purchased a family home in Mangere for $550,000 in July with 20% deposit but the house is now only worth $500,000 a will the bank require a loan repayment to maintain the 20%

by gordon | 14th Feb 16, 9:39pm 1455439151

What will happen if it hits $440k. No equity in other words. Why anyone bought from November 2015 when data was starting to show a change in sentiment amazes me.

by sharetrader | 14th Feb 16, 11:10pm 1455444645

they should be okay as long as they make their payments, it would be unlikely the bank would ask for a valuation on refinancing.
I would expect investors to be hit harder especially the ones that have been revaluing to leverage up and take out new mortgages to buy more property. this practice will stop in its tracks.

by Tui12 | 15th Feb 16, 8:41pm 1455522068

Its not that ok to me. A 20% drop needs a 25% increase to get back to the water mark. They are also paying interest on 440k when they could have been paying it on 352k (or 330k with the same deposit).