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Upmarket homes or those with development potential selling most readily at auction

Property
Upmarket homes or those with development potential selling most readily at auction

Bayleys Real Estate sold 13 of the 29 Auckland residential properties up for auction last week, giving a sales success rate of 45%.

That left 14 that were left to be sold by negotiation and two that were withdrawn from sale.

At Bayleys' Hamilton auction three of the six properties on offer were sold.

The Auckland sales included a couple of properties with development potential.

One was a house on an 828 square metre section in the apartment and terrace housing zone at Royal Oak that went for $1.82 million, the other was an 829 square metre section in Papatoetoe which had two houses on it, each with its own garage, which fetched $1.08 million.

Most of the properties that sold were in the middle to upper end of the market, although what was described as a spacious two bedroom apartment in central Howick went for $683,000, and a one bedroom apartment under hotel management in the Quest building (pictured) on Queen St in the CBD sold for $286,500.

It was also the upmarket homes that were selling at the Hamilton auction, with a house on a 1634 square metre section near the Waikato River selling for $1.146 million and a 330 square metre house overlooking Hamilton Lake fetching $1.34 million.

At the same auction a 77 hectare dairy farm at Matamata sold for $5.92 million.

The full results from both auctions, with photos and descriptions of all properties, including those that didn't sell, are available on our Auction Results page.

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88 Comments

The title of this piece could be a soundbite straight from the offices of DGZ/ZS.

Does anyone know what 11 Cadman Avenue, Greenlane, Auckland, sold for at Auction March 22? We discussed this place the other day and I see it sold.

*Edit: My sources advise me that it sold for $1.26m, just 15k shy of the homes.co.nz high value. Possibly not as much development potential as I thought. It would have required very careful calculations and measurements. Must be losing my touch!
I see some questions and queries and concerns below. I will try and answer them later however much work to do.

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That is such good news. You are right that the buyers are still out there and are not afraid to spend when the time is right. Homes.co.nz also registers a sale has the selling price as TBC. I am thinking around $1.2m. I'll be driving around the hood today and report back any sold signs here :-)

Edit: Wow my estimate was pretty accurate in that case - good to know :-)

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I was predicting close to 1.5M due to "development potential".

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You two are starting to sound a little desperate reporting on individual sales as if you can somehow draw conclusions from a single data point.

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Actually we have always reported on individual sales. Rest assured if I see an absolute bargain, meaning a desperate fire sale sort of thing, in the zone I will report it. Even out of zone too as i am interested to see if there will be sales in positive yield territory in Auckland. Maybe this place:

http://www.trademe.co.nz/property/residential-property-for-sale/auction…

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This property has been sold 3 times since 2011 and is in the market again for the 4th time.
12 Rawhitiroa Road, Kohimarama.
http://www.trademe.co.nz/a.aspx?id=1288246357
2014 CV = $1,360,000
Homes.co.nz estimate = $1,665,000
Feb 2015 Sold $1,380,000
Jul 2012 Sold $1,162,000
Jul 2011 Sold $1,070,000

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This is a good example of a typical cross-lease property. It shares a driveway. If you look at similar sized sections next door but ones that are freehold they are worth considerably more. Disadvantage of this place is that it needs to share the driveway. It would have been better to have its own driveway as it has the road frontage however not quite enough room up the side to have a driveway to the other house and a strip of land that can be fenced off. In my view when buying a cross-lease seek out a house that has private walking area right around it if you can.

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I know what you mean but the garage is underneath the house at the back...how do you solve the problem if there is no shared driveway? If you build one in the front of the house and convert the existing garage, then the frontage of the house will be compromised.

For this property I think they have done the wrong thing by turning the garage underground into a rumpus / 2nd living. I don't think it is legal due to flood water. I am estimating a sale price of around $1.3m i.e. slightly less than the 2015 sale price.

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You cannot stop the trend Zachary & DubleD
Overall trend is less homes selling , more unsold housing stock and a ever growing number of homes added every week for sale which ultimately will depress many parts of the housing market. I would not include that 700K West harbour property you sat on Zachary as like DubleD Zone . You hopefully have sold it by now and followed my advice a year ago or more. I do agree that DubleD is best

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Well me and DGZ have been pondering what the future holds. Our conclusion is that the best areas of Auckland Central will hold their values and places with potential will continue to increase. West, North and South could see some corrections. They did, after all, go up proportionally more than central imo. I feel West is uncertain as it has a lot of appeal and the improved motorway system has in a sense brought it closer to the city and closer to the North Shore and the airport too. There is something nice about the West but perhaps that is because I am a Westie from way back. I hold my property in the West for the long term as I have plans to retire there possibly - see I'm not such a snob!

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Ditto. My property in West Harbour (close to Luckens Rd & reserve) is there for the long haul and I do not discount the possibility of retiring there one day or when I am ready so I'm not such a snob either. May be Zach and I could be neighbours one day you never know ;-)

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Yes I very much agree with you NorthernLights, and I've also noticed that Auckland's sales and prices seem to be falling faster than Vancouver's even though we currently don't have any foreign buyers tax in place.

According to this recent article; In Vancouver, where dwelling turnover is down 40 per cent and prices of stand-alone houses are down 6 per cent and look set to fall much further.

It also points out that "The severe clamps recently placed on money exiting China and the jailing of officials for corruption has substantially reduced Chinese buying". This has very much affected the Australian property market as well, though a least Oz is far more desirable than NZ due to having far more infrastructure and higher employment opportunities.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/opinion/robert-gottliebsen/loo…

So it stands to reason that Auckland's property prices will fall over all if China's capital controls remain in place for some time to come.

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Why then is the Sydney and Melbourne markets not affected by the foreign money clamp down?there markets have taken off again

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Melbourne's housing market is a mess. That reality is simply not yet widely accepted by the media or Joe Six Pack Investor.

Here is a slice of reality:
http://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/australian-economy/oversupplied-…

Here is another slice:
http://www.centralequity.com.au/

Every Aucklander has seen these Central Equity jokers attempting to offload their overpriced and unsaleable Melbourne apartments in shopping centres across Auckland. If Aussie big-city property was still so 'hot', these jokers wouldn't have to spruik Auckland. Local Aussies would be buying it.

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I have a friend in Sydney with 850k pre approved for a two bedroom unit at northern beaches and he still gets beaten every time he goes to an auction!I'm telling you now that it's going nuts if you can't buy a crappy little unit for nearly a million bucks

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Aussie RE has been on a tear for decade and a half. Do not buy ! That market is absolutely ponzi
Many people will regret they overpaid once interest rates start upward path Or worse GFC2 finally arrives to stop the party.
Then again I am pessimistic

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WoW ! So I was right the Aussie property ponzi is trending down too in Melbourne at least

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CJ099 Thanks I agree with your thoughts too.
Vancouver trend has changed and I hope Toronto follows but it doesn't seem to have.
I also have no idea if the Chinese have slowed their investments in US housing.

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Still really low sales volumes and poor auction results. TradeMe's Auckland's property listings are still building up with more to follow after the weekend. What will be revealing is the latest house price results for March which is meant to be one of the busiest months for sales, clearly we're not seeing that level of sales activity.

Time to face the reality chaps, property prices are headed downwards.

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Very poor sales indeed. I keep a lot the interests me on my TradeMe watch list and then see what I think are sold properties fall into my lost items. However these aren't selling as the same house is popping up with another agent a week later. Seems that everyone is giving Barfoot a go then dumping them after a failed auction attempt.

Here are a few examples

http://www.trademe.co.nz/Browse/Listing.aspx?id=1286884568

http://www.trademe.co.nz/Browse/Listing.aspx?id=1288487445

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Both are not within DGZ.

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Yeah give it time, prices will fall in that area too!

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Barfoot Thompson's top 25 wonder-sales-team not doing so well huh?

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When was the last time you bought a property Zach or dgz?what are your plans for the next year or two?are you guys highly geared

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Is their wealth self generated or inherited

A better question is the original source of their wealth. They are both migrant-imports.

Are they self-made. Is their wealth self-generated or inherited

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Zach and DGZ are one and the same person who probably does not even own a property in Auckland. He has no compassion for those born in generations after him . He just enjoys winding everyone up as he has done today. He is ruining this site with his constant and unrelenting inane dribble.

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I noticed that DGZ arrived and started commenting at the time that Zachary was suspended from commenting on intererst.co.nz and that DGZ used identical style of writing and opinion to Zach, so there's certainly a possibility they are the same person. Which is bizarre because if true, he is having fake conversations with himself.

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David - obviously DGZ and Zach are the same person.

This idiot is a real estate agent and his constant peddling of property is really annoying. Can they both please be removed?

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They're a laugh, I don't think anyone takes "them" seriously anymore - but also pretty sure he's an RE agent from what I've seen in other property forums. I've seen the same Comments word for word of someone who can be easily googled and flogs off houses.....

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I can't believe it, real estate agents are professionals

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Pot kettle black?

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Still is be interested in hearing what there strategies are going forward for the next couple of years.see if there as clever as they make themselves out to be☺

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I have to say Zach/DubleD is/are entertaining. Whoever he/they are they take a opposing view which if taken with a grain of salt doesn't cause any harm just laughter .
Unsure about the motorway out west linking the North Shore because as they build in a big way out Whenuapai etc that motorway is going to get very congested.
Luckens Rd has 2 parts the good and the ? I remember expensive RE there and poorer RE
Don't tell me Zach/DubleD are retiring to west Auckland either !
By the way I lived 27 yrs there

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I think they are a scripted show like Punch and Judy, and that has kept people entertained....never dull, good for a laugh..

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I think they are reflective of a portion of our society so I find it interesting to hear their thoughts. I could never understand the type of person who was buying properties the last 4-5 years in Auckland, and be so irrationally focused on one overvalued asset class. Now thanks to their input, I understand.

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Hey by the way chaps; We're currently at 11114 property listings on TradeMe for Auckland, that's 100 more than yesterday better step up those auctions.

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As promised I would like to address some of the issues raised in this thread. Sorry about the length. Gordon has lately been pushing the idea that ZS and DGZ are one and the same person presumably as a way to shut us down because we have "ruined the site". I find this a little astonishing as surely readers don't wish this to be an echo chamber, right? Nowhere in this thread have DGZ or myself sought to attack people or criticize them. I am a reformed character in this regard. My opening remark is a bit of follow up to a query addressed directly to me in another house sales thread by a commenter concerning the value of a particular property going to auction as I have a keen interest in the locality. I think this is reasonably on topic. We have been noting that sales of high end properties and those that have development potential remain competitive and the headline of this article and the sales reports support that.

I think it is obvious that we are different people as I will often delve into matters that are highly political and controversial while DGZ rarely if ever does. That said we have very similar property interests and occupations and live in the same zone so when the topic is about this we naturally are singing from the same song sheet. I think we are both in IT too hence there are many similarities in presentation. We are not RE agents although I wouldn't mind being one. It's more of a hobby really.

The Auckland property has been a bit of a gold rush for quite a number of years and yes it is good fortune to get in early. I think the new waves of Chinese immigrants cottoned onto this fact and worked away on it too. The seams may well be depleted now but who knows? There will always be new finds and new discoveries I think. Hot property like gold tends to be found in similar places where the conditions are just right. I'm thinking that Hobart might have rich pickings. Think of DGZ, THE MAN 2 and me as prospectors who like to tell others about how it is done. More sensible people may just keep quiet I guess.

Is their wealth self generated or inherited

I did get a small inheritance (50k)ten years or so ago but also lost half my wealth in a divorce. My parents helped me into my first home with a reduced interest mortgage. I recognize that I am privileged. However the best investment I have found is a wife that can earn an income. I think the system is setup best for working couples who work as a team. I have also worked 50 hour weeks for the last twenty years. I am an immigrant but have been here since I was five.

When was the last time you bought a property Zach or dgz?what are your plans for the next year or two?are you guys highly geared.

I last bought a property, a two bedroom unit in the DGZ two years ago. I bought it without using an agent as the seller needed to sell quickly and the tenants were elderly and desperate to stay there. I wouldn't have bought it without both of these factors. Eventually my children may live there. My primary motivation is to support my own family. I don't plan to buy anything more as am maxed out borrowing-wise and am running slightly negative with about a quarter of my wife's income devoted to property. My properties will need money spent on them soon and I suspect I will need to start paying some capital back so am stockpiling money to cover for that while I can. I am hunkering down for the long haul. An across the board 20% drop in prices wouldn't impact me too greatly.

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Anyone reading this can see that you are one and the same, in the way you have phrased everything. Nice try.

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Thanks for the laugh.
So, let me get this straight...
Live in the same area, came to prevalence at the same time, of the same age, reiterate exactly what one another say, have more or less exactly the same knowledge, use the same prose (I am sure that if a linguist read your exchanges, they would identify you as the same person), work in the same industry.

Oh, and you also seem to both be around at the same time - from what I see, comments replied to within ~10 minutes on many occassions.

Okay. Seems legit.
I'm sorry I ever listened to those jealous folk who said you were the same person.

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How could you be maxed mortgaged and not impacted by 20% drop?
If you are 50% mortgaged overall, the 20% drop actually means 40%.

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ThomasC the key is to have sufficient equity. If you had 80% equity and there was a 20% drop in prices then you would have 75% equity. (at first you would think it would drop to 60% equity wouldn't you but no) If you had 60% equity and there was a 20% drop then you would have 50% equity. If you had 40% equity and there was a 20% drop then you would have 25% equity. If you had 20% equity and there was a 20% drop then you would have 0% equity.
Now I was never that great at maths so could be wrong with these figures. They astonished me and I calculated it several times thinking I had messed up. I realized even more why banks like you if you have sufficient equity.

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Yes. And if you had 100% equity in a property and prices fell 20% you would still have 100% equity in that property, but you would have lost 20% of your capital invested in that property as well.

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The rising and falling value of houses are not seen as capital losses by property investors once a property has been held for a few years. This is not calculated until you sell a property.

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Rubbish.
If they calculate nominal gain, why would they not calculate nominal loss?
Either they do it explicitly or implicitly through remortgaging.

To say someone doesn't calculate their capital position until they sell is plain silly.

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They probably do it at CV review time. The banks tend to use CV as an equity indicator. Most landlords aren't thinking, oh I made this much this month and oh dear I lost this much capital last month. I think THE MAN 2 would understand exactly what I am talking about. We used to see a lot of comments saying that gains were just figures until they were realised in a sale. Much like the person with 100% equity they don't fret about capital losses on a monthly basis.
We are a different lifeform. Houses prices went down 20% but my equity went down only 10%...winning!

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So you're not running any type of business as most specuvestors try to say they are? It doesn't pay you or your wife a living income and doesn't even cover capital repayments or maintenance. You obviously rely on the capital gains to cover lending security and most likely intend to sell in the future at some stage to free up capital. Hence almost anyone who tries to justify their speculation as running a business and deserves the same tax breaks as a productive business is talking bollocks. I'm guessing you probably also receive a taxpayer subsidy in the form of tax refunds?

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As time progresses you build up more equity in the "business". This works with inflation and canny property purchases or good business decisions like buying in areas you think will gentrify. The idea is when you want to make a positive return, like when you retire, you sell one or two of the properties and start running it at a profit and earning an income. It is not unusual for businesses to run at a loss initially with a view to making a profit in the future or even only when they sell. It's a little bit like growing trees or developing a business with a view to to selling to a large corporation. This happens all the time.

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Dear Zachary
You lost me at "we are prospectors"
Utter garbage you are "speculators"
You say you are in IT which doesn't compute with my experience as those types don't write waffle like you.
If you genuinely are in IT you sure as heck aren't writing code !
I figure you love the DubleD zone so much you invented DoubleZ
Who else but Zachary would ?
Still glad you're here I enjoy your writing but only the short pieces not the long stories Zach !

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Thanks NorthernLights. I must say I didn't expect your endorsement and it actually means a lot. I'm hardware - couldn't code if my life depended on it. I prefer mostly waiting for servers to boot up.
Tell me where you the legendary ZacharySmith69? I miss that guy.

21st century property is a bit like a gold rush though don't you think?
How about Hobart?

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No, Still not convinced that you work in IT Zachary. And IT support doesn't pay that well to be a Property Investor. The higher salaries are offered to those which much higher skill sets such as Programmers and considering that most of our Coders can't afford homes in Auckland. I can hardly see how anyone in IT Support can afford a home let alone be a property investor in Auckland with several properties??

If you worked in IT, you would be just as worried as I am with the high cost of living in Auckland and how difficult it is to attract skilled staff and keep them. Being in IT means that you have to compete with Globalization and high property prices/rents are destroying a lot of business in Auckland.

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IT professionals can be exceptional wafflers if it's a subject they're interested in...

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NZ property wont dump unless there is a global event... if there is a global event its likely to be bigger then the GFC... Internationally assets have risen too far based on zero interest rates, as things normalise the exit could get crowded, my bets are problems in Europe (another exit) or China (WMP blowup...)...

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Dear IT GUY agree that GFC2 will arrive just don't know when

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Good try DGZ but your response does not cut the mustard. The fact that you posted it at midnight last night just shows how besotted you have become with this site. Under both names you bombard us with inane and irrelevant material and I know for a fact that several people have left this site as they cannot handle your overuse of it under both names. You are besotted with the DGZ zone a topic which is totally irrelevant to a vast majority of New Zealanders including those who use this site. People just want to get on the ladder and those who already are just want their children and grandchildren to get on the ladder. If that means they buy their first home in Manukau Bridge or Glenfield that is a huge achievement for them. The DGZ zone means didly squat except to those who already live there or those who aspire to get into it. 99.9% of New Zealanders just want a reasonable home over their heads. They cannot contemplate buying a house for $2 million in Auckland. Do yourself a favour and talk about housing issues and areas of Auckland that the average New Zealander can relate to. Then you might gain some respect on this site. I am not the only person who thinks you and Zach are one and the same as you go on and on and on about the "Zone". A few less cruel irrelevant comments and more about the real world would go a long way in helping you gain more friends on this site.

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Amen brother.

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I think we need both all types of people on this site be it the property bills or the property bears.at least dzg Zach and the man are positive about certain things.sometimes you've just gotta give things a go.if I listened to the bears the whole time I'd be petrified I was making a mistake the whole time! !!

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@ Narrabeen Boy: Well that depends what you mean by making a mistake? Do you feel that you've missed out? If so you would have needed to have invested over two years ago (To avoid paying Capital Gains Tax). And then you would have needed to have sold before November 2016 when China's Capital Control Restrictions came in to effect to get the most from the peak of the market.

For anyone with skin in the game with investment property in Auckland (Or NZ as a whole), you really need to weigh up how much our property market is going to; adjusting, re-correcting, crashing what ever term you want to use.
It's fairly obvious to anyone that a lot of Investors are putting their properties on to the market and cashing up rather than risk being left with negative equity.
Consider all options and really look at what's happening and how long this downward trend is going to last for?

The $6.6 Trillion Dollar Real Estate Bubble Brewing In The Commonwealth
https://betterdwelling.com/the-6-6-trillion-dollar-real-estate-bubble-b…

And you better hope that a certain retired Wall Street Trade Marc Cohodes prediction for the Vancouver property market crash, doesn't pan out but I know he's right. And we all know that what has been happening there, the same has been happening here in Auckland for years.

Ex-Wall Street Trade Marc Cohodes prediction for the Vancouver :-
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d9GRENUsHjA

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Narrabeen Boy may be buying around the Hamilton area.Anywhere within an hour's drive of Hamilton could be a good bet as the link between Hamilton and Auckland is getting better every day. Hamilton is going to see a lot of growth especially as people flee Auckland.

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Ha, Ha, Nice try Zachary. I'll think you'll find that Hamilton and South Auckland are currently dropping in sales and value much like central Auckland will (Even the expensive areas), in the next few months.

Oh and by the way; you still owe me a; "Yes you were right CJ099" about the Vancouver market dropping in value due to the Foreign Buyers Tax and more recently China's Capital Controls (Trump Effect).

And just for you Zachary I'm going to post this link again ;)
Ex-Wall Street trader predicts Vancouver housing market implosion.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d9GRENUsHjA

And if they do go down, so does Auckland! Happy Sunday Zac.

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I see this dated 14 March 2017
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/house-price-data-centre-cana…

Canadian house prices see record-breaking month
National home prices jumped a record-breaking 1 per cent last month, fuelled by “worrisome” price increases in the Greater Toronto Area.

Overall, Canadian benchmark home prices rose 13.4 per cent from a year earlier, the 13th straight month of gains and the large 12-month increase since November, 2006. The 1-per-cent increase last month was the largest one-month gain for a February since the index began 18 years ago.

Aside from Toronto, where home prices are up 23 per cent from a year ago, Hamilton, Vancouver and Ottawa also saw a resurgence in home prices.

Those four markets stood in contrast to the soft housing market in the rest of the country.

National average prices reached a new high of $612,997, up 5.3 per cent from a year ago.
--------------------------------------
Holding off on the "yes you were right CJ099" for now.

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Hah!!! You’re so an Estate Agent! Only an RE would try to massage the figures by commenting on YEARLY figures for the whole country, when I'm specifically referring to one main city in this case "Vancouver"!

Also you're NOT commenting on the month by month figures to show what happened after the Foreign Buyers Tax!! When Vancouver's sales and prices significantly dropped. Instead you're commenting on yearly figures. SAD!

Here's a nice graph for you; See that big red line that drops off sharply after Oct 2016, that's Greater Vancouver! After the Foreign Buyers Tax which resulted in -40% sales drop.
http://economics.bmocapitalmarkets.com/economics/amcharts/GDM000-K07DSV…

And here's a more recent article from Canada saying that they're expecting a -40 to -50% value drop and you can buy the book from Amazon, isn't that nice!
http://globalnews.ca/news/1887724/canadian-home-prices-to-fall-40-50-pe…

Here's another :-

How Vancouver got its housing bubble under control: a lesson for cities like London and San Francisco
https://qz.com/903194/vancouver-house-prices-are-falling-as-it-gets-its…

No, I think you can apologize now instead of smoke screen figures! Got you now!!

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I still think it is too early to tell. I've spent ages digging around and am still in the dark. It appears that prices actually went up in February and March isn't over yet. What is certain, at this stage, is that your prediction hasn't yet transpired. Let's wait until June. The graphs still look like a standard jagged edge sort of thing Down in December, up in February, down again in March. It is a bit astonishing as I expected the 15% tax to have a much more dramatic effect than what we are seeing currently.

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You're still smoke screening Zachary, And you can't deny the recent stats on that chart for the Vancouver area, where it clearly shows a huge drop off in sales and value. So it has transpired - it's there in lovely red line that is now curving downwards, open your eyes and stop hiding.

http://economics.bmocapitalmarkets.com/economics/amcharts/GDM000-K07DSV…

Quote from AM chart: The vertical line marks the spot at which the non-resident tax went into effect in the Greater Vancouver area. We have enough history now to distinguish the clear divergence between Vancouver (down) and Toronto (still straight up). And, in case there was any doubt what force is at play.

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CJ yes you are 100% correct that Vancouver property values have & are declining.
Toronto is a completely different city thousands of miles away from Vancouver.
Toronto is experiencing increased prices in the Greater Toronto Area ( GTA)
Still another ponzi though in Toronto & the bust will be severe as it is a huge city much lager than Vancouver

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Of course property prices will go down through cycles but over the long term surely you can see they rise???

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Well I can tell you it took over five years for my property in the outer Greater London area to climb back up to pre-crash levels after the Global Financial Crash.

But we're dealing with a completely different situation here in Auckland. Most of this stems from a massive credit bubble with NZ residents trying to compete and taking on huge mortgages due to massively increased property prices through unregulated sales practices. Plus increased from large competition from foreign buyers (Which a lot of popular cities have experienced) at the top end of the market who had access to very cheap credit.

The trouble now is that the market needs to readjust downwards to be in line with peoples wages, having it so drastically distorted will only lead to business being literally squeezed out, that would again lead to a property crash.

No one knows when or even if, the top end buyers from Asia will be back? This is completely out of our hands, so the options you have are to either sell and cash up (Which it seems a lot of people are doing), or wait it out. But if you're a First Time Buyer, you need to wait until the market bottoms out otherwise you'll be putting yourself at a high risk of negative equity.

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It depends how patient you are?

13 years for my London property to recover to pre-crash levels after the late 80's crash.

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With the stunning yields Narrabeen boy is getting I think he can afford to be patient. Well done Narrabeen Boy, I think it is time to change your name to Narabeen THE MAN 3! Ooops now I am sounding like Double-DGZ.

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Don't encourage Narrabeen boy Zachary !

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Yeah I'm buying in Hamilton and Cambridge. Last purchase was Sept 16.it's in a great location and bought it privately. Had it valued and bought it way under what it was valued at.the one before that was Nov 13.so has gone up quite a lot.they are yielding 9.4 percent and 8.8.so are paying for themselves. Also one in papamoa that was bought ten years ago that is yielding 7.8.so even if the market goes down ten or twenty percent I'm not too worried as I look for yield over capital gain.

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Hmmmm. Well in the time that I have been a member of interest.co.nz I have seen many people for a long time say that that housing market in NZ was inflated. But that is hardly an opinion, that is born out by any measurement of housing affordability there is. The only time that I have noted any "bearish" tone in these comments has been since the market has given information that it is turning over the last 4 months. Ie increasing numbers for sale, slowing prices growth, slow sale times. Again, that's information on market fundamentals. There have been some predictions yes, but they are usually fairly obviously stated. The bulls however, say over and over, insane non-fact based comments about the housing market always going up and up, with never a correction. I find bulls far more terrifying that bears. Speculation is a plague on any economy.

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insane non-fact based comments

If you saw a graph of house price inflation in New Zealand from 1970 until now it would show a steady trend upward. It would be "insane" to deny it. That's a half a century of growth.

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Nice try, in nominal terms yes but in real terms the graph is just a a little different - page 5 if you care to look.

http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/-/media/ReserveBank/Files/Publications/Bulletin…

This has been discussed before.

And as a comparison

http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/-/media/ReserveBank/Files/Publications/Analytic…

Page 7 has a comparison of real house price inflation in the US over a similar period.

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Are you suggesting Zach that the growth was linear with no peaks or troughs?

Or that there is no concept about a Debt Super Cycle that covers the exact period you refer to?

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No one here has ever suggested that the graph is not jagged. No one here has ever said that property only goes up and not down. All the bulls are in for the long haul and take a long term view.

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Same could be said of equity investors.

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It's a very weak tactic to take a comment out of context Zach. My comment was "insane non-fact based comments about the housing market always going up and up, with never a correction", editing out "with never a correction" just so that you could argue with the point you wished to argue with, rather than what I actually stated is poor form.

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See above reply. You're just making stuff up.

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Yawn

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Zachary, the trend hasn't been up and up. In the 1970s, prices fell by 40 per cent in real terms between 1974 and 1980. That's well documented and a major fall even if it was disguised by rampant inflation. http://transportblog.co.nz/2016/07/11/remember-the-last-time-house-pric…

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A mere blip that was largely the result of real population decline. It was as if we experienced a mini black death population-wise. Consequently there was more supply than demand. China was like North Korea back then. The world has changed significantly since those days.

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Rubbish, a real black death decline was something like a 50-70% drop, whole towns and villages wiped out. it was not an easing up in population growth rates. If you are going to use hyperbole properly read up a bit on medieval history first rather than just the RI propaganda you and your wingman read to each other. it was the loss of immigration (much of it from the UK) after the 73' oil crisis in the main, that killed the property market here. Property prices stagnated from 1974 through to 1980 here. But with high inflation the drop was after adjustment 40%.

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I did write the word "mini" in front of black death. A lot of people left for Australia too. There was negative population growth similar to there having been a major war or disaster as there were more emigrants than immigrants. Things bounced back pretty quickly.

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The slogan on here says "helping you make financial decisions".
Personally enjoy the banter between Zach and Double DGZ and don't beleive that they are the same person, but have the same interests in real estate.
It is up everyone to make their own choices in life and we have to live with them!
The many commentators on here that want to put down people who have invested in property is a bit off putting really.
Whether the Auckland market drops substantially and some people lose equity we will need to wait and see won't we?
The way the prices are there will need to be a major drop before the young can afford to buy and afford a mortgage with the new deposit criteria adopted by the Banks.
Interest rates are still very low historically and will remain so, and are lower than they were for us two years ago.
The Christchurch market has flattened due to the LVR requirement being amended by the Banks, which is great for seasoned investors with serious equity and new investors that have access to finance.
Returns of 6 per cent are obtainable for nice property and there is nothing surer that Christchurch will become the city of choice in the future, as it gets rebuilt.
Gordon, don't bother having a crack at "The Man" as you always upset me terribly with your ridiculous comments regarding dwindling population and everyone you know is leaving!!!

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So ChCh will be "the city of choice" over where ?
Has the ground even stopped shaking yet for a full 2 years yet ?

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The earthquakes we have experienced have now made Christchurch far safer than previously.
The reality is that NZ is in "the ring of Fire" and therefore all of NZ is liable unfortunately to have quakes.
Obviously unfortunately we lost life in the second major quake in buildings in town which are no longer standing.
The quakes we have are now very minor and don't feel them.
There is tending to be more quakes happening recently of any significance in the N.I.
On the positive side of the quakes if there is a positive is that Chch is being rebuilt and it WILL be the City of Choice in the future, as people get totally sick and tired of the traffic and cultural problems that overpopulated Auckland has!!!

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I have to agree with you to a degree - I'm not sure if Christchurch is safer - more likely we are more aware ( I think after the first EQ we believed we had dodged a bullet) and the really big one when the Alpine fault goes still hasn't hit. Christchurch is being rebuilt but is still a bit patchy ( central Christchurch is mess and will be for a long time) - the suburbs are returning to some degree of normalcy. I agree about earthquakes - I've got a bit complacent about them. I'm not sure about Christchurch being the city of choice but agree about the traffic.

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Places don't stop being seen as a quake risk just because the ground stops shaking for a year or two. Hell, I remember growing up in Hawke's Bay in the 1990s and remembering how 60+ years on from the '31 Napier quake how people still knew the area was on borrowed time until another big one hit.

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