Currencies
Roger J Kerr says weaker than expected inflation and jobs data in Australia has forced away any lingering expectations of further Reserve Bank of Australia (“RBA”) interest rate hikes
22nd Jan 24, 7:55am
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Roger J Kerr says weaker than expected inflation and jobs data in Australia has forced away any lingering expectations of further Reserve Bank of Australia (“RBA”) interest rate hikes
The S&P500 reached a record high close underpinned by a strong performance by technology companies. US Fed speakers push back against near term rate cuts as the blackout period begins for the January FOMC
22nd Jan 24, 7:39am
The S&P500 reached a record high close underpinned by a strong performance by technology companies. US Fed speakers push back against near term rate cuts as the blackout period begins for the January FOMC
Fed's Bostic joins Waller: Fed rate cuts likely to commence in early 2H-24. ECB minutes and GC member speeches push back against market pricing. Aussie jobs numbers deliver large downside miss on headline growth
19th Jan 24, 9:13am
Fed's Bostic joins Waller: Fed rate cuts likely to commence in early 2H-24. ECB minutes and GC member speeches push back against market pricing. Aussie jobs numbers deliver large downside miss on headline growth
US 10-year rate up to a fresh high for the year of 4.15%, driven by US initial jobless claims showing a surprising fall to a 16-month low. Global forces push up NZ rates, with a weak first bond tender of the year not helping NZGBs
19th Jan 24, 7:48am
US 10-year rate up to a fresh high for the year of 4.15%, driven by US initial jobless claims showing a surprising fall to a 16-month low. Global forces push up NZ rates, with a weak first bond tender of the year not helping NZGBs
Global equites fell and bond yields moved higher as investors trimmed expectations for rate cuts by major central banks. US retail sales were higher than consensus estimates. 2-year treasury yields increased 15bps supporting the US dollar
18th Jan 24, 8:01am
Global equites fell and bond yields moved higher as investors trimmed expectations for rate cuts by major central banks. US retail sales were higher than consensus estimates. 2-year treasury yields increased 15bps supporting the US dollar
Lift in US Treasury yields during Asian session extended overnight; rates up 10-13bps across the curve for the day. Fed Governor Waller argues that, when the timing is right, the Fed Funds rate should be "lowered mechanically and carefully"
17th Jan 24, 7:47am
Lift in US Treasury yields during Asian session extended overnight; rates up 10-13bps across the curve for the day. Fed Governor Waller argues that, when the timing is right, the Fed Funds rate should be "lowered mechanically and carefully"
S&P500 futures down slightly and US Treasury futures consistent with a lift in the 10-year rate. Euro area economic data continue to underwhelm but ECB commentary shows reluctance to cut rates; German rates push higher
16th Jan 24, 7:54am
S&P500 futures down slightly and US Treasury futures consistent with a lift in the 10-year rate. Euro area economic data continue to underwhelm but ECB commentary shows reluctance to cut rates; German rates push higher
US PPI, softer than expected, yields and dollar softer in early US trade. Risk mood sours through US trade following US/UK Middle East offensives. Range trading prevails, market awaits further data to aid central bank rate cut calls
15th Jan 24, 9:16am
US PPI, softer than expected, yields and dollar softer in early US trade. Risk mood sours through US trade following US/UK Middle East offensives. Range trading prevails, market awaits further data to aid central bank rate cut calls
Roger J Kerr says there is a strong argument that the New Zealand interest rate market is pricing in far too many cuts, far too early, from the current 5.50% OCR rate
15th Jan 24, 7:46am
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Roger J Kerr says there is a strong argument that the New Zealand interest rate market is pricing in far too many cuts, far too early, from the current 5.50% OCR rate
Softer than expected US producer prices support rally in global bonds. US 2-year treasury yields reached the lowest level since May. Weak inflation pressures and subdued demand for credit support the case for lower policy rates in China
15th Jan 24, 7:46am
Softer than expected US producer prices support rally in global bonds. US 2-year treasury yields reached the lowest level since May. Weak inflation pressures and subdued demand for credit support the case for lower policy rates in China
US December CPI stronger than expected with core inflation at 3.9%, headline 3.4%. Immediate reaction: risk assets sell-off, 10-yr yield ascends back through 4%. Losses pared through second half of US trade implying CPI beat expected
12th Jan 24, 8:46am
US December CPI stronger than expected with core inflation at 3.9%, headline 3.4%. Immediate reaction: risk assets sell-off, 10-yr yield ascends back through 4%. Losses pared through second half of US trade implying CPI beat expected
US 10-yr yield reclaims territory above 4% as dovish outlook reconsidered. Australian monthly CPI falls from 4.9% to 4.3%; RBA to remain on hold in February
11th Jan 24, 9:29am
US 10-yr yield reclaims territory above 4% as dovish outlook reconsidered. Australian monthly CPI falls from 4.9% to 4.3%; RBA to remain on hold in February
Even though markets seem sure the US Fed Funds rate will need to fall as US inflation does - and that will make the USD weaker - Roger J Kerr warns managers to be aware of the risks to that weaker US dollar expectation
8th Jan 24, 8:51am
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Even though markets seem sure the US Fed Funds rate will need to fall as US inflation does - and that will make the USD weaker - Roger J Kerr warns managers to be aware of the risks to that weaker US dollar expectation
More pushback from Fed officials on market pricing for significantly easier monetary policy next year, but market shows little reaction in Fed Funds market; US Treasury yields push higher, led by long end; oil prices continue to recover
19th Dec 23, 7:51am
More pushback from Fed officials on market pricing for significantly easier monetary policy next year, but market shows little reaction in Fed Funds market; US Treasury yields push higher, led by long end; oil prices continue to recover
US yields & the dollar spike higher on Fed's Williams comments, then reverse. Eurozone PMIs softer-than-expected, EUR worst performer amongst the G10
18th Dec 23, 9:55am
US yields & the dollar spike higher on Fed's Williams comments, then reverse. Eurozone PMIs softer-than-expected, EUR worst performer amongst the G10
Roger J Kerr says it has just taken an extraordinary length of time for the Fed and the markets to conclude that interest rates did not need to go any higher and would need to come down in 2024 to avoid a recession
18th Dec 23, 8:23am
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Roger J Kerr says it has just taken an extraordinary length of time for the Fed and the markets to conclude that interest rates did not need to go any higher and would need to come down in 2024 to avoid a recession
US policy makers push back against speculation of near-term rate cuts by the Fed. ‘We aren’t really talking about rate cuts right now’. European economic activity weak. German bund yields dropped to lowest level since January
18th Dec 23, 7:37am
US policy makers push back against speculation of near-term rate cuts by the Fed. ‘We aren’t really talking about rate cuts right now’. European economic activity weak. German bund yields dropped to lowest level since January
US treasury yield & the dollar retreat continues; 10-year yield sub-4%. Fed's surprising dovish pivot could usher in prolonged dollar weakness. BoE/ECB deliver no change. Strong Aussie jobs growth & record participation rate; RBA not done?
15th Dec 23, 8:37am
US treasury yield & the dollar retreat continues; 10-year yield sub-4%. Fed's surprising dovish pivot could usher in prolonged dollar weakness. BoE/ECB deliver no change. Strong Aussie jobs growth & record participation rate; RBA not done?
Markets have extended the post-FOMC moves. US treasury yields and the US dollar have declined further. But both the ECB and BofE left rates on hold and sounded cautious on the outlook
15th Dec 23, 7:52am
Markets have extended the post-FOMC moves. US treasury yields and the US dollar have declined further. But both the ECB and BofE left rates on hold and sounded cautious on the outlook
Fed maintains 5.25% - 5.50% target rate; delivers dovish dot plots/SEPs. Powell refrains from pushing back against easing financial conditions. Greenlight provided for year-end risk rally as Fed-psyche more dovish
14th Dec 23, 9:49am
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Fed maintains 5.25% - 5.50% target rate; delivers dovish dot plots/SEPs. Powell refrains from pushing back against easing financial conditions. Greenlight provided for year-end risk rally as Fed-psyche more dovish
Weaker than expected US PPI, UK GDP and euro area industrial production data supports extended bond market rally. Domestic rates tumbled yesterday, some attributed to weaker pricing indicators
14th Dec 23, 7:52am
Weaker than expected US PPI, UK GDP and euro area industrial production data supports extended bond market rally. Domestic rates tumbled yesterday, some attributed to weaker pricing indicators
Following volatility spike after US CPI release, markets settle to remain in prevailing ranges. CPI data does not alter expectations for path of Fed policy in 2024
13th Dec 23, 8:30am
Following volatility spike after US CPI release, markets settle to remain in prevailing ranges. CPI data does not alter expectations for path of Fed policy in 2024
US core CPI up 4.0% y/y, in line with market expectations but not weak enough to encourage the market to price in any more easing next year
13th Dec 23, 7:57am
US core CPI up 4.0% y/y, in line with market expectations but not weak enough to encourage the market to price in any more easing next year
US CPI and FOMC decision are this week's major events. If US CPI comes in as expected, the focus will shift to the Fed's latest projections/dot plots. Meanwhile the NZD trades in a narrow range
12th Dec 23, 8:26am
US CPI and FOMC decision are this week's major events. If US CPI comes in as expected, the focus will shift to the Fed's latest projections/dot plots. Meanwhile the NZD trades in a narrow range
US Treasury yields push higher amidst a heavy supply week, yields up 4-5bps. Key US CPI report tonight. Yen falls on chatter the BofJ in no special hurry to scrap negative rates
12th Dec 23, 7:45am
US Treasury yields push higher amidst a heavy supply week, yields up 4-5bps. Key US CPI report tonight. Yen falls on chatter the BofJ in no special hurry to scrap negative rates
