Currencies
Market breathes a sigh of relief as monthly core US PCE prints in-line. US equities take flight on PCE data and impressive big-tech earnings. Bank of Japan delivers dovish on-hold decision, offers little forward guidance
29th Apr 24, 8:55am
Market breathes a sigh of relief as monthly core US PCE prints in-line. US equities take flight on PCE data and impressive big-tech earnings. Bank of Japan delivers dovish on-hold decision, offers little forward guidance
Roger J. Kerr says the RBA needs to rethink its approach to taming inflation, US economic grows slows, and the Japanese have been restrained so far on intervention on behalf of the yen
29th Apr 24, 8:15am
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Roger J. Kerr says the RBA needs to rethink its approach to taming inflation, US economic grows slows, and the Japanese have been restrained so far on intervention on behalf of the yen
Global asset markets ended last week on a positive note. The S&P advanced 1% following upbeat earnings. US PCE core deflator data was in line with consensus estimates. The yen remained under pressure
29th Apr 24, 7:33am
Global asset markets ended last week on a positive note. The S&P advanced 1% following upbeat earnings. US PCE core deflator data was in line with consensus estimates. The yen remained under pressure
An anti-Goldilocks US GDP report; weaker growth and higher inflation than expected. GDP up 1.6%, core PCE deflator up 3.7%. Rates market more focused on the inflation story, seeing a further paring of US rate cut expectations
26th Apr 24, 8:07am
An anti-Goldilocks US GDP report; weaker growth and higher inflation than expected. GDP up 1.6%, core PCE deflator up 3.7%. Rates market more focused on the inflation story, seeing a further paring of US rate cut expectations
Investor risk appetite recovers underpinning global equities as market looks ahead to earnings reports from US Big Tech. Treasury yields fell alongside the US dollar, following weaker than expected preliminary US PMIs
24th Apr 24, 7:51am
Investor risk appetite recovers underpinning global equities as market looks ahead to earnings reports from US Big Tech. Treasury yields fell alongside the US dollar, following weaker than expected preliminary US PMIs
Risk appetite higher with US equities rebounding. Commodity currencies outperform. NZD consolidating above the 0.59 mark and flat to higher on the key major cross rates
23rd Apr 24, 7:47am
Risk appetite higher with US equities rebounding. Commodity currencies outperform. NZD consolidating above the 0.59 mark and flat to higher on the key major cross rates
Roger J. Kerr takes an experienced look behind the headlines of recent economic data to distill what the essential trends are telling him
22nd Apr 24, 8:15am
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Roger J. Kerr takes an experienced look behind the headlines of recent economic data to distill what the essential trends are telling him
Megacap tech crunched, Nasdaq falls over 2%, longest losing streak since Jan 2022. Israel retaliation pushes risk assets lower. Big week of earnings ahead
22nd Apr 24, 8:10am
Megacap tech crunched, Nasdaq falls over 2%, longest losing streak since Jan 2022. Israel retaliation pushes risk assets lower. Big week of earnings ahead
Investor risk sentiment recovered after Iran played down the damage following retaliatory strikes by Israel. Safe haven flows into US treasuries and defensive currencies reversed. NZD/USD recovered from 2024 lows but then lost traction
22nd Apr 24, 7:21am
Investor risk sentiment recovered after Iran played down the damage following retaliatory strikes by Israel. Safe haven flows into US treasuries and defensive currencies reversed. NZD/USD recovered from 2024 lows but then lost traction
Privacy Act alone not sufficient to meet user privacy expectations for digital cash, Reserve Bank says
19th Apr 24, 12:00pm
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Privacy Act alone not sufficient to meet user privacy expectations for digital cash, Reserve Bank says
US equities down modestly; US Treasury yields have pushed higher, with a stronger Philly Fed survey and hawkish Fed-speak not helping
19th Apr 24, 7:31am
US equities down modestly; US Treasury yields have pushed higher, with a stronger Philly Fed survey and hawkish Fed-speak not helping
Modest risk-off tone in the air; US equities weaker, US Treasury yields lower, credit spreads wider and oil prices weaker. NZD and AUD the best performers. Rates rise post-CPI
18th Apr 24, 7:50am
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Modest risk-off tone in the air; US equities weaker, US Treasury yields lower, credit spreads wider and oil prices weaker. NZD and AUD the best performers. Rates rise post-CPI
A perfect storm for the dollar; DXY on track to take out 2023 high. China activity data: GDP beats, retail sales, industrial production misses.PBoC appears to be conceding defeat to USD given weak CNY fixing
17th Apr 24, 8:10am
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A perfect storm for the dollar; DXY on track to take out 2023 high. China activity data: GDP beats, retail sales, industrial production misses.PBoC appears to be conceding defeat to USD given weak CNY fixing
US Fed Chair Powell signals high rates for longer due to persistent inflation. 2-year US treasury yields reach 5%, the highest level since November. China set a weaker than expected daily yuan reference rate hurting commodity currencies
17th Apr 24, 8:02am
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US Fed Chair Powell signals high rates for longer due to persistent inflation. 2-year US treasury yields reach 5%, the highest level since November. China set a weaker than expected daily yuan reference rate hurting commodity currencies
'Digital cash' could shore up monetary sovereignty, plus boost competition and innovation, the RBNZ says
17th Apr 24, 6:01am
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'Digital cash' could shore up monetary sovereignty, plus boost competition and innovation, the RBNZ says
Markets continue to trade with a cautious tone, with Israel vowing to retaliate against Iran’s weekend attack. US equities down about 1%; oil prices barely lower. US Treasury yields reach fresh 2024 highs
16th Apr 24, 7:51am
Markets continue to trade with a cautious tone, with Israel vowing to retaliate against Iran’s weekend attack. US equities down about 1%; oil prices barely lower. US Treasury yields reach fresh 2024 highs
Roger J. Kerr sees another bout of US dollar strength as markets re-price Fed interest rate cuts. But will the higher US inflation continue?, he asks
15th Apr 24, 7:43am
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Roger J. Kerr sees another bout of US dollar strength as markets re-price Fed interest rate cuts. But will the higher US inflation continue?, he asks
Investor risk aversion weighed on growth sensitive assets at end of last week amid concern about escalating hostilities. The S&P fell -1.5%, while US Treasuries and the US dollar rallied. The NZD was amongst the weakest developed market currencies
15th Apr 24, 7:26am
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Investor risk aversion weighed on growth sensitive assets at end of last week amid concern about escalating hostilities. The S&P fell -1.5%, while US Treasuries and the US dollar rallied. The NZD was amongst the weakest developed market currencies
US equities bounce back. US Treasury yields show only small movements, with a modestly steeper curve. Little impact from the ECB's in-line policy update
12th Apr 24, 7:50am
US equities bounce back. US Treasury yields show only small movements, with a modestly steeper curve. Little impact from the ECB's in-line policy update
US CPI runs hot for a 3rd month; headline rises. Implied probability of a June Fed cut falls from 50/50 to below 20%. RBNZ hold decision passes with minimal reaction; balanced view maintained
11th Apr 24, 8:36am
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US CPI runs hot for a 3rd month; headline rises. Implied probability of a June Fed cut falls from 50/50 to below 20%. RBNZ hold decision passes with minimal reaction; balanced view maintained
Stronger than expected US CPI data prompted large moves across global asset markets. The S&P is down more than 1%. US treasury yields surged with big gains for the US dollar. The RBNZ decision had limited market reaction
11th Apr 24, 8:05am
Stronger than expected US CPI data prompted large moves across global asset markets. The S&P is down more than 1%. US treasury yields surged with big gains for the US dollar. The RBNZ decision had limited market reaction
US Treasury yields shift back from 2024 highs ahead of key US CPI report. Local QSBO revealed weak conditions consistent with recession. Focus now on RBNZ
10th Apr 24, 7:53am
US Treasury yields shift back from 2024 highs ahead of key US CPI report. Local QSBO revealed weak conditions consistent with recession. Focus now on RBNZ
Commodity linked currencies continue to outperform as prices surge, although dairy and iron ore prices fail to participate in the commodity rally. NZD only gets a modest boost
9th Apr 24, 8:36am
Commodity linked currencies continue to outperform as prices surge, although dairy and iron ore prices fail to participate in the commodity rally. NZD only gets a modest boost
US rates push up to fresh year-to-date highs as investors continue to push out the timing and scope of US Fed rate cuts this year. NZ rates follow up, with swap rate rises boosted
9th Apr 24, 7:29am
US rates push up to fresh year-to-date highs as investors continue to push out the timing and scope of US Fed rate cuts this year. NZ rates follow up, with swap rate rises boosted
Roger J Kerr notes another blockbuster US jobs rise. And looks at what is driving the rise of the USD. He also wonders if the RBNZ will push-back against market interest rate pricing
8th Apr 24, 9:18am
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Roger J Kerr notes another blockbuster US jobs rise. And looks at what is driving the rise of the USD. He also wonders if the RBNZ will push-back against market interest rate pricing
