Here's our summary of key economic events overnight with news 'events' are compounding to push commodity prices to unprecedented levels. At the same time, investors found their risk appetite again.
In Ukraine, the Russian army is still advancing on key population centers but none have fallen yet, which is amazing. Russian troop losses are hard to know with any accuracy, but they seem to be about 2500 deaths per day (which interesting exceeds the total number of American lives lost over the whole 20 year Afghanistan war).
In Congressional testimony, the head of the Federal Reserve came out in support of a +25 bps rise at their meeting in mid March.
US mortgage applications fell again last week, and their key benchmark mortgage interest rates rose. Their benchmark 30year fixed is now 4.15% plus points.
The February non-farm payrolls report is due out on Saturday (NZT) and a gain of +400,000 jobs is anticipated which is slightly less than for January. Today we got the pre-cursor ADP employment report and they revised up their January data and said the February gain was +475,000 new jobs. Gains were reported across the board in all industries, and in both the service and manufacturing sectors. But the one group that is missing out is SMEs where employment shrank, especially for micro-firms.
The closely-watched Beige Book survey results are due at 8am NZT and they are expected to be positive. We will update this item if that is not the case. (Update: It was.)
The Canadian central bank reviewed its policy rate today and raised it +25 bps to 0.50%, and that was as the market expected. It was well signaled. It is their first rise since the emergency pandemic cut.
China has now explicitly said that it is working to meet the high standards of the Trans Pacific Partnership. It expects to join when it qualifies. An even bigger clash with Australia looms on that, and that may separate them from most of the other CPTPP members.
For a third quarter in a row, Japanese companies increased capital spending and the Q4-2021 levels came in above expectations, up +4.3%, up from +1.2% in Q3.
Korean industrial production however rose less than expected in January, but their February PMI suggests this may have been only a temporary slowdown.
The annual inflation rate in the EU rose to a fresh record high of 5.8% in February from 5.1% in January, and above market expectations of 5.4%. France's +4.1% is the only major lower than the average.
Prices for all the key items sensitive to the current eastern European crisis are all rising sharply. Hard commodity prices like oil, natural gas, lithium, aluminium, tin, nickel, coal, and potash are all up very sharply. Soft commodity prices like wheat, corn and other animal feed products are rising fast too. Most of these are now either at record highs or decade highs. Unless there is a sharp retreat soon - and that looks unlikely at present - a new commodity super-cycle had gotten an outsized start and will drive inflation and economic instability for years.
In Australia, the populated east coast in suffering from a major rain event, grinding economic activity to a halt until it passes.
Earlier, their economic activity expanded by +3.4% in Q4-2021 from the prior quarter on the reopening from delta lockdowns (which were centred in NSW, Victoria and the ACT). This follows a -1.9% contraction in Q3-2021. Year-on-year Q4 was up +4.2%. For all of 2021 it is up +4.7%. After falling -2.2% in 2020 from 2019, it is back up to AU$2.05 tln in the year, but only from AU$2.0 tln in 2019. This data had no reaction in markets.
The UST 10yr yield opens today at 1.84% and recovering a sharp +14 bps of the -16 bps it lost yesterday. The UST 2-10 rate curve starts today flatter at +36 bps. Their 1-5 curve is steeper at +68 bps and their 30 day-10yr curve is also steeper at +171 bps. The Australian ten year bond has recovered +11 bps at 2.14%. The China Govt ten year bond is up +2 bps at 2.85%. And the New Zealand Govt ten year is down -4 bps at 2.74%.
Wall Street opened its Wednesday trading up +1.7% in ongoing afternoon trade. Overnight European markets were all +1.5% higher in a tightish range, except Frankfurt was only up +0.9%. Yesterday, Tokyo ended its Tuesday session down -1.8%%, Hong Kong was down -0.3%, and Shanghai was down -1.1%. The ASX200 ended up +0.3% but the NZX50 was retreated -0.9% after the outsized rise in the Tuesday session.
The price of gold starts today at US$1920/oz and down -US$14/oz from this time yesterday.
And oil prices are higher again today and by +US$2.50/bbl level. In the US they are now just over US$106.50/bbl. The international price is just over US$109.50/bbl.
The Kiwi dollar will open today at 67.7 USc and a marginal rise. Against the Australian dollar we are at 93.1 AUc and a marginal slip. Against the euro we at 61 euro cents and also a marginal rise from its recent higher level. That means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 72.6 and a new five week high.
The bitcoin price has risen again today, up +2.4% from this time yesterday to US$44,314. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at +/- 2.4%.
The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».
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151 Comments
> The US does this sort of thing all the time, not sure why we have to destroy the global economy just because Russia is doing what the US did in Iraq.
What a strange defence. Well of course I can commit murder, somebody else got away with in the past, so that makes it ok.
Agree, it's like saying the death penalty is murder. Completely devoid of context. Similar methods, completely different justification.
The US has only attacked terrible regimes, and in many cases the population would have been in favour, at least at the start of the process.
The death penalty is still murder. Justifying it in terms of context and law doesn't change the act. It's still a choice to take another's life. Motive changes nothing.
Why does the US have the power to choose who is a terrible regime?
There's suggestions that Japan were already prepared to surrender but the US dropped the bomb anyway, as a lesson to others, a show of power.
Of course it doesn't condone Putin's actions now.
The issue is where was the retribution and sanctions whenever the US committed atrocities?
Interesting point, and what is the measure on this continuum that we use to ensure that Russia is at the very evil end? Possibly there would be a measure that would differentiate Iraq from Ukraine invasions but then Iraq is far from the US and Ukraine is on the Russian border. It would be very difficult to accurately map a moral continuum, especially if you consider the justification for the second Iraq war was a complete fabrication.
I suppose we could spend a lot of time debating all the merits of each position, Ukraine, Iraq, US, Russia but I don't really see much difference in the end. I'm not convinced this is more worthy of destroying the global economy than the second Iraq war was.
You are correct, but I would suggest there are still significant differences, when looking solely at how the countries in question were governed at the time (Iraq v Ukraine) and how the local populace felt about said invaders.
I am not saying the invasion of Iraq was correct, but in the context of wider history it was not the worst result. No one is looking back wishing Sadam was still in charge, and that the Yanks stayed out.
We will however look back and most likely say we should have done more to remove Putin, Lukashenko, Xi, Kim, Assad, et al.
It's not the media who tell us good v bad. We can all make that choice alone - hence the debate.
I am not saying the USA were right, just that they were less wrong than Russia.
However, two wrongs do not make a right. Just because USA did it, does not mean Russia can.
At some point you have to take a stand. Personally I would remove all Permanent Security council members. History has shown us, they all do wrong, and then veto the consequences.
Zachary,
"Of course it compares." What exactly are you and others like Audaxes trying to say? We know that all Great Powers have blood on their hands. The US, Britain, all the European colonial powers of which Belgium may have been the worst and so on. The great Tobacco Lords of Glasgow-Scots like myself-happily turned from tobacco to slavery following the American War of Independence. Too many scots were complicit in the Opium Wars.
Now that Russia is engaging in a war-brutal as all wars are- the relevance of what other countries have done escapes me. Are you trying to somehow minimise it by saying that others have done this?
If not, your post seems pointless.
Of course poor old Bushie was an idiot. That's why the people in charge of US put him in! I thought everyone knew that already. But it is a bit unfair to blame him for signing off their decisions. He was just signing off lots of bits of unread paper put in front of him, and reading off speeches, without bothering to understand them. That was never his job. The same lot of people are running things now. Poor old Joe is doing the same job as Bushie did. His only job is to set things so the Crony Capitalists can make as much money as possible. This can only be done by having as much power as possible. Who would have thought the two things are closely connected? Vlad P is just another face of the same coin. He is extracting as much as possible for himself and his Crony Capitalists. Mr Schwab, who Cindy thinks is her mentor, is doing the same thing. Trying to set things favourably for his Crony Capitalists. All very entertaining.
Be specific.
US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright, needing a way to punish Saddam Hussein for not wanting to become a US colony, personally arranged the targeted destruction of Iraq’s drinking water purification facilities and enacted worldwide sanctions to prevent Iraq from obtaining replacement supplies or repairs. According to the United Nations, Albright’s actions directly resulted in the deaths of more than 500,000 Iraqi infants from contaminated drinking water, with the full knowledge of the US government. Then in a TV interview on the program 60 Minutes where she was confronted with evidence of these acts by Leslie Stahl, Albright famously proclaimed, “Yes, it was worth it.” (26) (27) And after personally arranging the 80-day non-stop bombing of Yugoslavia, the greatest continuous bombing campaign ever instituted by anybody anywhere, she said, “The United States is good. We try to do our best everywhere”. (28) Link
Let's understand something. On the democracy index NZ sits at No 2 as a Functional Democracy, the US at 26 as a Flawed Democracy and Russia at 124 as an Authoritarian regime. Ukraine interestingly is at 86 as a Hybrid (Democracy Index 2021). So yes the US is a very flawed country, but so is NZ. So for all the apologists for Putin who are justifying his actions by criticising the US's history does another countries flawed history justify any other's actions?
If we are to deny Ukraine's right to self determination and independence, then what are we to say when someone does it to us? What is the ideal we need to be aiming for here? While the pathway to it may be difficult and challenging, does that mean it cannot be taken? What price are you prepared to pay for for what you are in effect arguing for?
This is not an intellectual exercise. It is about real people's lives and freedom, and may ultimately be about you and your children's.
What do you say to the Maori people who probably wanted self determination and independence?
(or any other invaded group of people - of which there are thousands upon thousands upon thousands throughout history)
Until there are no borders, and we are 'one people' with a unified/binding vision then these issues will continue to occur - probably the only thing that might stop this type of thing from happening would be a threat external from earth! But even then, human beings would find something to fight over/against one another.
Today is a very different world than 160 - 200 years ago. We cannot change the past or the actions of our forefathers. We live and work in the world we are given by our ancestors, and must look to the future. We can choose to learn from the past and either do better, or we can continue to visit harm on those around us to satiate our lust for revenge, or power and a sense of superiority. Maori are no different. There is plenty of evidence they were doing the same amongst themselves before the European got here, and possibly to those who were here before they came. If you want to start that cycle there is no end as every race and culture has done it. The only way is forward.
Choose.
Thanks for the moral lecture and idealistic rant!
That isn't how the world works, although if you are in your 50's-70's that is probably how you think it works because you never experienced major conflict in your life where you actually had to go to war to enforce what you think is 'good'. If you did, your view would be far less idealistic and much more pragmatic.
You can say 'choose' above as if people either have to agree with your idealism or not....... I therefore say:.....
ACT
(what are you going to do with you idealistic views while Putin invades?) (that is right, you will be like NATO/UN who will and can't do anything, lots of words and idealistic views but you won't do anything because you are probably afraid that you will be viewed as hypocrite if you have to fight fire with fire - and it will be these ineffective/weak idealistic views that Putin is betting on that are all bark but no bite)
(also you are probably afraid that acting will change the status quo)
I struggled to understand what you are saying here. And it actually does come across as a rant or tirade.
yes it is how the world works because we accept it as it is, rather than demanding a change. And family and grand parents fought in WW2 and Korea, and more than a few in Viet Nam, so the cost of conflict is well understood.
While pragmatism may be the way we settle for things but should that override idealism? In my experience the bar of pragmatism is perpetually slipping ever lower as people avoid dealing with conflict, are self-centred and selfish, and avoid making hard choices to do what is right. The old adage Evil Triumphs when good men do nothing is very true.
Yes I say choose, as we all do every day of our life to hold up, or not, the ideals of our societies. Should people agree with me? I would hope that an ideal of peace freedom and right to self determination is an ideal that would appeal to all. If not what else is there?
And many times in my life I have chosen to act, to protect others, to uphold ideals and integrity. Have you?
Where did you get the stuff in brackets from? Are you attributing them to me?
I'm not sure if you have read much history - there's a strong possibility that you could be being naive regarding human nature and conflict.
"And many times in my life I have chosen to act, to protect others, to uphold ideals and integrity" - Good for you....I'm sure Putin cares very much!
With reference to the 'stuff in brackets' - watch what NATO/UN do (or don't do) in the coming months. It will be idealistic but will they ACT? Perhaps they should talk to Putin and tell him he should CHOOSE the idealistic path of NATO and UN? (similar to your comment above?) (sarc)
It sounds like you are justifying doing nothing?
What kind of world do want to gift to your children and grandchildren? Do you not think ideals are worth fighting for?
Consider for a moment the consequences of how you treat people may not come back on you, but they come back on your children or grandchildren. Directly or indirectly. There is much we cannot control or influence, but is that justification for not trying?
The problem is many European settlers generations later, are still justifying those actions of the past because "the Maori did it too".
We haven't accepted any responsibility for the harms our culture inflicted on another, and in not doing so, we haven't learned anything.
The essence of colonialism was laid out in the doctrine of Discovery. Our culture good, all others bad and I have the law of rule and military power to enforce it. Somehow this is now established and recognized as Western Democracy. And the West believes this should be imposed on every other Nation.
The hypocrisy is astounding.
It is not "whataboutism" rather a legitimate comparison. You are exaggerating when you write the Russians are shelling the hell out of the cities. Grozny in 1999 was shelled the hell out of when the Russians began the assault with a scud barrage on the downtown square and maternity hospital.
Im talking about a likely siege that will see the cities getting shelled. At the moment, its pretty minor.
Why does someone doing something in the past need to bare relevance for someone doing something equally as bad (or worse) today? Why does being horrified at this mean you have to be an apologist for the United States?
It's same people pushing the same barrow day after day. The rights of Ukrainian "breakaway" provinces ravaged by fighting from Russian-funded militias are sacrosanct, but eht entire Ukraine should just roll-over and agree to never join NATO to keep Russia happy. But you don't talk about that because the US has a bad track record? It makes your head bleed.
I'm getting increasingly curious as to which countries these posters are actually posting from. I miss when Russian botnets just used corporate PCs to mine cryptos, instead of tedious disinformation campaigns.
Yes and the bully feels threatened by the boss, who likes to teach about moral principles and rule setting, but who internally appears to be fractured, is broke but has a gambling problem which is funded by making his own money out of nowhere, and whose influence that was once great, is now in serious question.
The bully can see the hypocrisy of the boss and can see how weak and fragile he/she is becoming. Why not push a bit harder against the rules and see if the boss cracks...who then can stop the bully?
LOL - I think you might be being idealistic like a few other commentators on here today. Of course not! But what if the boss has become weak and divided and is no longer in a position to enforce his/her ideals? Should he/she clean up his/her act first, then play god, or should they judge the bully from a perceived position of weakness?
Putin see's weakness at the moment - not strength.
Don't bother Zachary, most people on here are absolutely blind to anything our allies do (don't even mention the bombing in Yemen that the US has supported or the admitted slaughtering of children in Afghanistan). But if Russia or China do the same, queue the outrage. Classic rah rah rah nationalist myopia.
"most people" are largely aware the US has a shitty track record with this kind of thing.
"most people" can also accept that any country shelling another country's civilian population is a shitty thing.
There are some people here who seem to think there's a law that the poor foreign policy track record of the US means we can't talk about another country being dicks, like it somehow invalidates legitimate criticism of their actions during a war they started.
So where was the outrage on the site when US was aiding the bombing of Yemeni civilians with bombs they make that they deem others to have as illegal? Not a squeak.
We have literally dozens of comments on here condemning Russia for an invasion and rightly so. However it's patently clear that "most people" are just as willing to turn a blind eye to the actions of our friends doing exactly the same thing. The comments on here show the myopia as they are a distillation of peoples thoughts.
I am just trying to point out that there is no balance. If our friends do something bad, we ignore it. If our adversaries do exactly the same thing... mountains of scorn on them. This illustrates that "most people" are just as bad as the brainwashed CCP citizens in China that never question their own governments agenda or any other nationalistic citizenry. All the while "most people" pretend to be balanced.
Probably because "we aren't ignoring it" like you keep repeating. The US Drone Striking things like hospitals, weddings and schools has been going on for so long it's almost a meme at this point. It's not something anyone is 'ignoring' at all. But sure, call everyone brainwashed, make assertions about what they think or know or choose to ignore. It's not that there is 'no balance', just that we're realistic about the things our allies and friendly nations get up to. Don't confuse 'not being surprised' with 'choosing to not care'.
For instance, today the US decries the positioning of cluster munitions by Russia. Of course please don't mention that the US has been supplying Saudi Arabia with cluster munitions for 7 years to drop on the heads of civilians in Yemen. Nor the fact that they refuse to ratify the very treaty they cite cluster munitions as illegal.
No hypocrisy there, just look the other way.
No, but the USA and the UK sold the whole "Weapons of Mass Destruction" to fire up the allies (see https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9DLuALBnolM). Furthermore, Saddam was a warmonger who invaded countries so what's good for the goose and all that. I agree Bush and the rest of the world were idiots for invading Iraq (and Afghanistan) and caused untold suffering for the Iraq peoples, firstly in innocent deaths caused by US troops and then the power vacuum that allowed Al Qaeda and ISIS to gain footholds in the country. USA at least tried to justify the war and got enough of the international community on board so that any country that objected and tried to impose sanctions would have been urinating into a storm.
Russia's invasion of Ukraine is different. No provocation and a blatant land grab. Putin believes Ukraine was stolen from him and he wants it back. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/On_the_Historical_Unity_of_Russians_and_U….
Fearmongering by the western media, Putin will stop at Ukraine. He is purely putting physical distance between Moscow and NATO. The second the USA said they were not putting boots on the ground in the Ukraine, they were screwed. Putin is not stupid he will not start WWIII by trying to go into a NATO country. Don't poke the Bear, the West is getting what it deserves.
he has said he wants Ukraine and the Eastern Nato countries to demilitarise. So he can invade them.
By that logic, then what about if all the E European countries restarted a Warsaw Pact with Russia? NATO would think that the Pact is going to invade.
In Russia's (not Putin's, or not just his) eyes, it's one thing if the E European countries democratised or "westernised" but it's another when they join a military alliance whose sole purpose was to counter the Warsaw Pact. Now it instead is expanding to Russia's doorsteps.
That paranoia on Russia's part is understandable considering history (Swedes, Mongols, Ottomans, French, Germans), so they must be thinking, "It's been a while since the last invasion. There must be another one coming soon, if history's anything to judge by..."
Look at the geography, all the countries along Russian's western border are turning NATO blue, wouldn't you be nervous if you were Russia?
Europe and the US on their part sees E Europe as new fertile economic markets, including for their stagnating military industrial complexes. But there is also an energy component to this conflict.
Russia supplies a large portion of Europe's energy needs in oil, gas and coal. In 2012, Ukraine discovered oil deposits in east Ukraine near where the separatist regions are and in west Ukraine (between Belarus and Moldova). Also discovered were gas deposits off the coast. These would have made Ukraine the second largest oil and gas supplier in Europe after Russia.
If Ukraine became a supplier and important partner to the EU, it would put Russia in a very difficult position.
Trying to be reasonably objective about this it appears that, by modern military standards and capability, the shelling of cities has been light. The Russians appear to be willing to risk their soldier's lives in order to avoid civilian casualties.
Compare it to US assaults on cities like Baghdad and Falluja. Remember the infamous tank drive by when then drove M1 battle attacks through the city blasting away at things?
Wasn't the vote held after Crimea had already been invaded by Russian forces? I am sure if China invaded NZ and had armed soldiers "reviewing" voters' ballots we would all vote to join the CCP to. Anyway, that is not how countries work, Howick couldn't have a vote to join the CCP just because a lot of Chinese immigrants live there.
Better to die on your feet than live on your knees.
Putin wants Ukraine and no amount of bowing down to demands would've stopped him invading. The whole NATO on our borders claim was an excuse and if Ukraine had capitulated the new demands would have got more and more fantastical.
Isn't this the attitude that Germany had prior to WW2? They wanted Danzig back.
Better to die on your feet than live on your knees.
Is a bit childish and simplistic. Refusing to compromise because to do so would be "living on your knees"? It's also a false dilemma. Those aren't the only two choices.
Oddly I'm tending to agree with you ZS....Some pretty out there views on how morally superior one side is over the other - failing to see the role one side has played in creating this situation (just like the 1930's).
Taking a morally superior stance to what you perceive as bad doesn't change a thing, it only angers whoever it is that you are in conflict with, even more....adding fuel to the fire.
The outcome ain't going to be good for the innocent. Russia won't withdraw as this will show weakness, no way Putin will show weakness. The UN has a vote, but probably won't do anything but supply a few bullets and guns, but meaningless against the Russian weapons, so they show that they are basically a wet blanket and love a talk fest. The poor people stuck between power struggle of men trying to measure the size of their D***...pathetic.
Under Biden direction the US has been shoring up European co-operation prior to this erupting. The speed, enormity and buy in of the European nations in to get these wide ranging sanctions has been the biggest shock of all for Putin. They are unprecedented. War without firing a bullet.
My guess would be that Putin got an undertaking from the CCP that China will shore him up, economically & strategically. That though may not have predicted the extent of the sanctions and the actual damage that is to be caused. Even so, China will have thus gained considerable leverage over their old “rival” without firing a shot. Russia right now is weaker, and it’s worsening, than when they marched into Ukraine. Keep seeing that image, in the old Punch cartoons, the organ grinder with the cup collecting all the money, and the dancing monkey on a chain.
Don’t know. If to tap the apparent Ukranian mineral & energy resources would need, as Russia has, technology input & expertise from the West. China may be able to make up for some of that, but not for a while. China looks like becoming a big gainer out of this venture, for sure.
As expected China has refused to sanction Russia, it would be interesting to see a list of who is and isn't sanctioning Russia. Commodities are pretty tight right now and if the Russians can't keep supplying the global market it's not going to be good for inflation.
Sooo much propaganda. MSM is completely devoid of any pics showing destroyed Ukrainian military vehicles. Just Russian ones.
No pics of dead Ukrainian soldiers etc.
Daily quotes of thousands of Russian soldiers killed.
Interest.co.nz was saying 2500. Russians killed, linking some vague wsj article..
Mmmhmmm...
I believe Western reports out of the Ukraine as much as Chinese reports on cronivirus numbers...
“A potentially weaker willingness on the part of the Russian government to service its debt on time and in full, raise the probability of more severe credit outcomes for foreign holders of Russian debt securities,” Moody’s Investors Service said in an statement.
And while Russia is about to re-default - something it certainly has experience with - its economy devastated yet rich in natural resources, the question is how the US will handle the brutal, new reality where oil is now virtually assured to hit $150 if not $200 at a time when the main US output is hyperfinancialization, with the value of financial assets at last check some 6.3x times greater than GDP. Link
As I have noted many times China got the jobs, the West got the debt.
The Invisible Cost Of War In The Age Of Quantitative Easing
"...As of 2020, a total of $2.02 trillion had been borrowed and spent by the U.S. government on the post-9/11 wars. Americans have by now paid roughly an additional $1 trillion in interest alone for the privilege of borrowing to wage conflicts that have become increasingly distant from public discourse.
...According to the Cost Of War project at Brown University, interest payments on money borrowed to fight the post-9/11 wars may one day actually eclipse the actual spending for those wars. The project’s authors project that even if spending ceased today, total interest payments would rise from the $1 trillion already paid to $2 trillion by 2030 and to $6.5 trillion by 2050.
...For context, the current U.S. fiscal budget for 2022 is approximately $6 trillion, mostly earmarked for entitlements. Military spending makes up the largest discretionary expenditure, at $750 billion, while support for veterans makes up another $270 billion.
Annual interest payments account for around $300 billion in today’s near-zero interest rate environment, a good portion of that going to pay back war borrowing. In total, more than $1 trillion (close to 20%) of the annual U.S. fiscal budget is military-related.
Washington projects its 2022 revenue through taxes and other streams at only around $4 trillion, meaning this year more than $2 trillion of new debt will add to the existing $30 trillion pile."
https://bitcoinmagazine.com/culture/how-the-fed-hides-costs-of-war
https://www.whatbitcoindid.com/podcast/the-economics-of-war
Fantastic talk with Alex Gladstein, the Cheif Strategy Officer at the Human Rights Foundation.
He goes into depth about the unseen costs of war when they no longer have to be directly financed from the population, both in terms of personal (conscription) and monetarily.
Now that the public has grown sick and tired of all the Covid "experts", I see in the news this morning it's time to roll out the political science "experts" to put the fear of God up us about the new boogeyman, disinformation.
I want one of these expert jobs ... seems like easy bread to toe the party line.
What I find scarier than the fringe element of society that feed themselves and each other on un-provable ideas, is a world where future generations never have to consider what is right and what is wrong. Because some person or committee of people have been given the power to decide what information to release as the truth.
The way things are going I fully expect to wake up one day within the near future to see that a 'Ministry of Truth' is being established.
"KiwiSearch" to replace Google.
"KiwiBook" to replace Facebook.
And so on.
The sad part? The media will be there to tell us it's a great outcome and essential for our safety and security.
Unless there is a sharp retreat soon - and that looks unlikely at present - a new commodity super-cycle had gotten an outsized start and will drive inflation and economic instability for years.
The reality is that over the next 50 years what will really matter is who controls access to the raw materials, technology, infrastructure (e.g. shipping routes), and skills needed to sustain a population in an increasingly unstable climate (politically, economically, and environmentally) The era of financialisation could crash spectacularly.
Every Government in the world should have the best people they can find working this out - starting with energy security. Shame that most Governments have forgotten how to plan an economy (or how to lead a change).
I'm gonna go with PDK on this, at some point resource scarcity is going to really bite, we do live on a finite planet with finite resources. Ultimately the way we do things will have to change, hopefully science and technology continues to allow us to adapt in a positive way.
Almost completely agree. The exception is population. Unless that technology can solve several very pressing problems very quickly, the population has to drop significantly across the planet, and this means EVERY culture and religion must change radically or we kill ourselves slowly.
The problems to be solved; start with the impact of resource consumption on the environment, and also consider the depletion of those resources. Just those two means that the planet can no longer support us, even with significantly reduced population.
Nonsense. Even the chicken little IPCC doesn't follow your apocalypse narrative. Unfortunately these apocalyptic scenarios are force fed to school children, needlessly scaring the bejesus out of them.
"…So what does this SSP 2 world feel like? It depends, O’Neill told me, on who you are. One thing he wants to make very clear is that all the paths, even the hottest ones, show improvements in human well-being on average. IPCC scientists expect that average life expectancy will continue to rise, that poverty and hunger rates will continue to decline, and that average incomes will go up in every single plausible future, simply because they always have. “There isn’t, you know, like a Mad Max scenario among the SSPs,” O’Neill said. Climate change will ruin individual lives and kill individual people, and it may even drag down rates of improvement in human well-being, but on average, he said, “we’re generally in the climate-change field not talking about futures that are worse than today.”
https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2021/11/how-bad-will-climate-change-get/620605/
Going by the IPCC we can continue to utilise resources with positive effect. "IPCC scientists expect that average life expectancy will continue to rise, that poverty and hunger rates will continue to decline, and that average incomes will go up in every single plausible future, simply because they always have." Perhaps your future scenario is implausible? But I guess a steady dose of MSM doom porn will lead to a negative outlook on life.
One way. Kindness (TM) is making these kids hungry - not lack of food. "Cereal production, utilization, and trade reaching record levels in 2021/22. FAO’s latest forecast for world cereal production in 2021 has been lifted by 2.1 million tonnes in February and now stands at 2 793 million tonnes, 0.8 percent higher year-on-year. "
Yes, the global population is supported by non-renewable resources. Time is slowly ticking and there will eventually be a day where these deplete to a level that they're either unavailable or cost is prohibitive. NZ is lucky in the sense that we have a (comparatively) small population at this current time and we can generate the bulk of our electricity off renewables. However, if we continue growing the population uncontrollably we're going to follow the same course as most other countries.
We will not kill ourselves slowly Murray that's the problem when you hit a peak, its a very fast drop off after that in a fight for survival. I have always said that our orderly society is but a thin veneer as basically we are just animals and if things get tough its going to get really ugly really fast.
I tend to agree Carlos. There is so much evidence that we are not really very evolved. If we focussed our efforts on saving the species and planet rather than fighting our selves we might actually achieve something. I'm not religious at all but i sometimes think that the Garden of Eden story is actually the beginning and the end of the story. But the further we get from it, the further we are from it.
The enormity of the task ahead, and the scarcity of the resources required to complete it, is definitely becoming clearer to people - not least because the climate (and PDK!) remind us almost daily that the threat is real. Science and technology are definitely part of the answer - but the level of investment and focus required is beyond what 'the market' will deliver on its own. The other key part of the answer is lifestyle change - we need to consume and throwaway much less stuff. Our current lifestyle will seem ludicrous in 20 years time.
China as expected voted no to sactioning Russia.
Putin will destroy Ukraine and together with China will continue to thumb their noses at the West.
China is building 184 coal fueled power stations and Russia may be supplying the coal.These guys don't give a toss.Meanwhile the West continues to put Thunberg and her cohorts on pedastals.
One under-reported aspect of the war in Ukraine is that the human losses Russia is incurring are ones it cannot afford demographically. Due to a very low birthrate they'll probably lose 25m people over the next 30 years and that is before we get into rapid population aging, particularly in fighting age men, and the short lifespan of Russian men even outside of their many wars.
Most of the ex-USSR is in a similar position.
Where on earth did that 2500 number come from ? The Daily Mail ? Really people, use your heads. The Ukraine Airforce has gone. Russia has circled major cities and is not bombing them as is the usual Western approach. You need to understand Ukraine is 50% ethnic Russian so the Russians will not be conducting mass bombings. You also need to understand that many of the Ukrainian military are hard core Nazis and have been hell bent on ethnic cleansing of the ethnic Russian people in the Donbass. No, I'm not Russian. I just know how to look beyond CNN.
"You also need to understand that many of the Ukrainian military are hard core Nazis" Really a report on ABC News (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-03-03/inside-the-separatist-republic-t…) states the Azov Battalion is less than 1000 in an army of around 250,000. Somewhat distorted perspective here.
Pity it is not just one Bullet, needed to end this conflict. Put a price on his head.
1 Billion dollars for a figure head would be a Bargain to end all wars. He has a death wish anyway....
Surely NATO and all us "Peacefull Nations" could chip in.
Cheap at half the price.
Build a "Peaceful World" start at the Top...Tap...job done.
The threat we all have to putin perspective.....is obvious. In my opinion.
I shall say no more.
The world's reaction to Russia is interesting as it looks like Cancel Culture on steroids.
Why use military force when you can, 'with almost a flip of a switch,' turn off their ability to move money to buy goods, fly planes, or have goods delivered, buy materials from other countries, communicate, play sports etc.
While most of us would agree that this use of power is better in all cases than war, and better in this case as a cause, at what point is a line crossed?
We have seen it used on a limited basis for drug enforcement, money laundering etc., but then the likes of Trudeau used it to freeze bank accounts of Truck Convey protestors and people that supported them, and the likes of 'Go Fund Me' who seized the money from the Convey Fund and were not going to return it until they realized they overplayed their hand, both legally and brand wise.
At the flick of a switch, your power, access to bank accounts to get money to even buy food, phone and interest for communication, etc. can be turned off.
Nothing to worry about - right?
And here you are relying on a device that needs electricity, through a medium that needs electricity. So this simpler way of living is obviously not the one you are living in now.
And yes there is a simpler way, which it looks like the Russians are going to find out first hand.
Yes, but that is the point. What does that look like, and who gets to decide what it gets used on.
Hard currency backups are needed, less reliance on 'others' for things.
Many people that have used or donated to Go Fund Me in the past now say they will NEVER give their money over to a middle man like Go Fund Me again.
Meanwhile in Kenya 175 countries have signed a legally binding agreement to end plastic pollution.
Hey fellas how about getting a legally binding agreement to end the Ukrainian invasion.
Watching them all cuddling each other after the agreement made me sick.
Priorities please.
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