Egg shortages have emerged across New Zealand in late 2022 and early 2023 as the supply of eggs has fallen. Regulation changes announced in 2012 saw battery-caged eggs banned, with this ban coming into force in 2023.
Plans were also made in 2017 to ban colony-caged eggs, although this change hasn’t yet eventuated.
The change in New Zealand’s egg production methods has seen available egg numbers fall considerably in 2022, and prices rise in response to sustained demand for eggs – exacerbating already-high inflationary pressures on food prices.
This analysis provides a brief overview of total egg production trends in New Zealand, highlights regional and local egg production, and examines egg prices.
Egg production fell 9.1% in 2022
Over the year to June 2022, New Zealand’s egg production, measured in dozens of eggs, was just over 92 million. This level of egg production was down 9.1%pa from the 101.2m recorded in 2021 and was the lowest level of egg production since 2016 (see Chart 1).
The fall in egg production in 2022 was the largest fall in nearly 20 years (with this series of data from Stats NZ only going back to 2002). It follows continued growth in egg production since a slight blip (a 0.9%pa fall) in 2018.
Auckland, Otago, and Manawatū are key egg producers
Infometrics analysis of 2017 Agricultural Census data shows that Auckland (19.9% of the total), Otago (19.6%), and Manawatū-Whanganui (14.4%) regions together account for 54% of New Zealand’s total egg production.
Northland and Waikato are also large egg producers, accounting for 12.4% and 11.8% of national egg production respectively. All other regions have around 5% of less of total production.
Just four territorial authorities account for half of total eggs, being Auckland, Dunedin City, Whangarei District, and Waitaki District (see Chart 2).
Egg prices rise as supply and demand diverge
The lower supply of eggs but no change in demand means that the chickens have come home to roost, and prices for eggs have risen in response. Infometrics analysis of Stats NZ Food Price Index data shows that egg prices have risen to $5.93/dozen in November 2022, up 16%pa from November 2021 (see Chart 3).
Prices were even higher in October, at $6.28/dozen, at which point egg prices were 26%pa higher.
There’s no (over) easy solution and no sunny side up for egg production immediately, with the sector smaller than it was in earlier years, meaning production will remain constrained in the short term. Time to crack on and lay the foundations for tomorrow.
This article was first published here. It is reposted with permission.
109 Comments
Cracking good article , Brad ... eggcellent analysis of the problem ... larger bakeries are importing dried egg powder from countries who don't respect their hens as much as we do ...
... anyone who thinks this isn't a serious matter , well the yolks on you ... you'll be paying about $ 2 more for a 10 pack of eggs than you used to pay for a dozen ... clucking hell !
Are you suggesting there should be no standards at all because people can't afford them? They could bring red meat prices down with horse meat / dog meat / rat meat for example. Or keep sheep in a tiny cage with food pumped into them. Actually they could solve the housing crisis by keeping humans in cages.
'Actually they could solve the housing crisis by keeping humans in cages.'
Depends on what you mean by solved. If it's the Labour Govt.s definition you could say it is solved because they moved them into Motels.
Or do you mean as Hong Kong did with real cages, noting Hong Kong still has the world's most unaffordable housing?
https://fourfacades.com/urban-hell-a-look-inside-the-cage-homes-of-hong…
" They could bring red meat prices down with horse meat / dog meat / rat meat for example."
I doubt it....the labour to meat ratio from those suggestions dont appear viable...how much meat on a rat?....and dogs are now worth more than cattle beasts...;as are horses.
This is yet another symptom of the fact we are in overshoot....and the problem wont be solved by 'regulation'...indeed as demonstrated it is accentuating the problem.
I think we take way too much for granted! How often do you see a person starving in NZ - I reckon we have the opposite problem, too much food!
Its the same with many other aspects of life. We can't afford to pay for the environmental damage from our cars, yet driving is so cheap we drive everywhere and have a problem with congestion.
Is that actually true or just a convenient excuse? I can make a pretty nutritious family dinner for less than any premade supermarket or takeaway alternatives. Chuck some seasonal or frozen veges in a fry pan with a small amount of chicken and have a stir fry for example. But it wont taste the same as a big mac extra large combo.
The idea that "Junk Food" is much cheaper than healthy food is a convenient and lazy excuse. Anyone can jump on the PakNSave website and look up prices to verify.
- Cheapest Potato Chips $1.70 per 150g ($11.30 per kg). Muesli Bars $12.50 per kg. Big Mac $8 (250gm = $32 kg), Cheeseburger 100gms $4 = $40 kg, Scoop of chips roughly 350gms = $3 ($11.67 per kg).
- Apples - $5kg, Potatoes $5kg, Oranges $6kg, Frozen Broccoli $3.70 per 750gm, Basic uncooked pasta $3kg, Mince $16kg. Pams mixed vegies 1kg, 2 for $5 ($2.50kg). A pack of Hellers sausages is $10.50 per kg, cooked with mashed potato and devilled sausages mix.
Yes, if you only do half the analysis and don't include the time, effort and energy required to cook a meal, and clean up the dishes afterwards.
I suspect there are not many people eating apples for their evening meal.
Even cooking a basic meal takes me at least 45 minutes, not including the time to clean up afterwards.
Also a lot of people simply don't have basic cooking skills any more - my mother made me cook 1 meal a week from my late teenage years to get experience.
Basic cooking skills? Like turning on an oven/stove top, a small amount of oil in a pan, and reading the back of a Maggi flavor sachet? I was never taught to cook. I can cook.
What you have suggested is that people cannot find the 45 minutes or so to cook a meal and tidy up after themselves. But they can find time for a 45 minute round trip to McDonalds? That's their choice of course, but don't complain when there's no money left in the middle of the week.
There we go. Whatever's good enough for Jimbo is all anyone should want. I don't consider that stir-fry particularly healthy and would not try to coerce it into other people diet. (Your coherent argument here is: its OK you people can't afford the eggs you want because they will have this instead) You can have strong and unapologetic opinions on nutrition all you like but chances are they will turn out to be wrong or suboptimal eventually, so I don't think it's OK to force them on people.
Meat and dairy are also going in price as well. People can somewhat nutritionally substitute one of these 3 for another but if all 3 are unaffordable then where does this nutrition come from.
We are not talking about people who consume big mac for nutrition we are talking about eggs.
Well that nutrition certainly doesn't come from junk food and takeaways. Even if a dozen eggs got to $10 a tray it's still cheaper, not only on a per kg basis, but nutritionally than buying a round of Big Mac combos for the family.
Willing to bet there's a lot of "fat" that can be trimmed from the average low income weekly food spend before the price of milk, meat and eggs becomes detrimental.
It is not so simple as the price of food. You must factor in all the ancillary stuff as well. Access to Equipment/energy/space and capability for Prep, Cooking, Cleaning, and eating. (hard to cook a potato when you live in your car)
Although overall I agree with the point, many could make better choices, and I am yet to find a takeaway that is cheaper than buying a single Apple, Banana, and carrot.
Pretty easy to cook a potato if you rock up to your friend/families place and help out with the meal. Your example of living in a car is extreme, and even then what you forgo in rent can easily go towards butane canisters. A basic cooker is $90 at Mitre 10, etc.
Otherwise, all rentals will have a means of cooking and a sink. A single stove burner uses roughly 1.5kw of power, so that's what 20 cents to boil the potatoes (20 mins)? I think what's lacking is the ability for people to stand upright for more than an hour in a kitchen.
Your example of living in a car is extreme, and even then what you forgo in rent can easily go towards butane canisters.
I think there's practically no-one who chooses to live in a car in order to save on rent. It's because they don't have the money to pay the rent in the first place.
The thing you(/we) think people should do is more expensive, this is generally not a good thing.
Again, what is coherent about the argument: I think some people are buying too much junk food so it's OK eggs are more expensive? Are you assuming its common knowledge that everyone who buys eggs has discretionary income they are spending on takeaways?
Well, the thread kinda evolved into "think about diabetes etc because healthy food is more expensive than junk food". It's a common misconception. The numbers don't lie as I have demonstrated, people would rather forgo actual quantities of good food if it means they don't have to cook.
As for discretionary income on takeaways, check out how many families are at your local fast food stores at around midday on a Tuesday (dole day). And for the eggs? They've gone from $0.42 to $0.50 per egg.
I see it did. My bad, interests indents are hard to match up.
One or two eggs per person for a family of 5 still adds up. It's a 20% cost increase. There's still no coherent link between the in-consequence of price of eggs and people choosing to use discretionary income on unhealthy food.
Off topic by now but a cheap stir-fry is not the best food for preventing diabetes (a lot of sugar, carbs and processed stuff). That's probably the point I would like to add: Societies common knowledge about good diets from commonly available food is horrible. Chances are beneficiaries also don't know how bad what they are doing is.
I mean, there are other ways to cook the vegetables that typically go into a stir fry. My wife has a microwave steamer, you put water in the bottom, the vegies sit on the top parcel and you microwave for 15 minutes.
Yes, a 20% cost increase on a small food expense which yields a good protein. But you're right, there's no coherent link however willing to bet a good number of these people "hurting" from a couple of extra dollars on a tray of eggs buy takeaways once a week and pay no mind to the cost of that expense, while claiming "healthy food is so expensive".
It's not the veggies or small amount of meat that's unhealthy, it's that there wont be enough of them to satiate anyone when you have a very sweet source on-top (steamed or frozen veggies are bland) and only rice to fill you up. It's better than cheaper takeaways but I can't see how it could be a staple healthy meal. Sorry to everyone who thinks this off topic.
If you know what your doing and have trained kids you can make a reasonably cheap source without too much sugar and stay away from much cheap cooking oil but that's not obvious.
You may or may not agree with my nutritional assessment but the point is the whole of society is bad at nutrition, a third of us are obese and we don't know how to fix it without treating the poor as a lower class. Those with disposable income should probably make themselves healthy before before they go mandating nutrition. Processed food has confused us on this topic.
When your also trying to make dairy and meat more expensive with policy as well yes 20% on eggs does matter.
As long as you can get a dozen 2-minute noodles for $5 you will struggle to win the price argument. 4-person family fed for 3 nights at a cost of about 40c per serve. 45c if you include the cost to boil the jug.
Yes for a bit more you can add veges, but meat is now out of the reach for many.
If you actually look around we are very much back in medieval times. Meat and veges for the rich. Bread/Flour based products for the rest.
Yes they have been in recent times, but not over the last couple of decades. They are also a larger dollar amount than food in most (if not all) renter budgets. This is why I still think housing (shelter) costs are the main problem in NZ and should have been getting the same attention for decades in the same way the more recent rises in food prices have been.
Counter to this though, a bagged roast chicken, baps and bagged lettuce is going to run you north of $25 now. That used to be an easy go-to $15 dinner for four if you were seriously time-poor. It's more expensive than a New World pizza - figure that out! Although you can stretch that spare roast chicken if you've already got tomato sauce with some wraps, tinned spaghetti and some pineapple to make a few Social Investment Scheme Pizzas! Just don't take it out of the oven before it really starts cooking. We've made that mistake before.
The huge hikes in meat prices haven't affected me much as we only really eat chicken but the increases in fish and salmon prices have virtually pushed them out of reach for now. And that's a seriously good food for brain power and you can make some bloody delicious stuff with a decent bit of salmon - soba noodle salad with low-salt sauces is a gift from the gods. Likewise I've enjoyed some of the paneer and tofu stuff we've had recently.
And I think that's the real tragedy of exploding food prices. If you're so time poor or hard up against it that even things like bagged roast and baps are slipping out of reach, then you never get to try food that makes you think "shit, maybe it is worth all the effort of cooking" every once in a while. It's just one less part of life people actually get to enjoy - which is how you should be feeling when you think about food, and not how you're going to afford it.
Its the same with many other aspects of life
It goes for most of what's in our shops for sure.
We want high wages, sick, maternity, and holiday pay, a good health system, etc. Unless it's for anyone making stuff we need to buy, in which case it's "as little extra costs as possible please".
The "let them eat cake" response. Eggs are (sorry, perhaps it is now were) a staple and affordable source of protein for poor people. This is a classic case of middle-class Wellington sanctimonious pearl clutching without real regard for the consequences for everyone else.
A) I don't think chickens are moral agents. Frankly I don't care if some chickens are suffering. Sorry if that offends your sensibilities. I do personally buy free range eggs (to supplement the eggs from my own backyard chickens), but I also don't think that I have the right to push my animal welfare morality onto a family who are only just getting by and want or need to eat cheap eggs.
B) Whataboutism and a poor argument. Rent going up makes it even more important that we don't see price pressures on food.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=tTFT-u-E2h4
NZ battery chicken farming
This is a portent of a wider problem. If business stops being profitable then eventually you stop doing business.
We've had a global decline in interest rates for 40 years. All assets follow the same trend, business has been getting less and less profitable as part of this trend. A bit of legislation pushed this one along a bit faster, but without a change of trend, and I don't see one on the horizon, then most businesses are headed this way.
I read a good article 2016 that PDK posted. It was primarily about oil, and predicted that somewhere from 2020-2022 we'd hit a crisis in the industry due to supply. It still appears very much that peak oil was 2018, so the analysis seemed to be pretty good. It was also outlined that all the western economies, at least, are an extension of the petro chemical industry. We don't have to run out of oil for refined products to reach a crisis of supply, the companies involved in the supply system simply have to stop making money, and stop doing business.
Lack of profitability doesn't have to be from lack of sales, it can be that costs are simply too high. Seems a particular problem with the New Zealand economy. What does the egg producer make from the retail sale of an egg?
But is there central planning? The government and public sector have no plans even on matters of national security.
Owners of the Marsden point refinery mulled closing down the operations for years before actually voting to do so in 2021. Yet MBIE sat around all those years without putting a proper thought towards NZ's fuel security.
The vote prompted bureaucrats into a lengthy "engagement process" with consultants, while concrete was being poured down the refinery's pipes.
Now another supply chokepoint has emerged in the limelight, this time being liquid CO2 - Safety problems shut Todd Energy Kapuni plant for past fortnight (msn.com)
the processed gas from Kapuni is used by domestic, commercial and industrial appliances, on sites ranging from food and beverage factories to hospitals and water treatment plants. Gas New Zealand chief executive Janet Carson said the product was "absolutely vital for industry and New Zealanders".
The Government and Public Sector are repeatedly told they must stay out of private business affairs. The Private Sector know best etc.
You mean.....there are actually times when the Government should step in? Oh...I get ya, privatize the profits and when the sun don't shine, socialize the losses for a while.
I am saying do no privatise affairs of national interest in the first place. Even the Yanks are smart enough to keep fuel security in federal government hands.
Besides, economies more successful than ours have a degree of central planning and are often classed mixed market economies, including Australia and much of North and West Europe. Even Singapore describes itself as a free market economy with "dirigiste characteristics".
This doesn't mention that what seems to have caused the shortage is the supermarkets deciding to ban colony caged eggs much later than the government introduced the law which banned only battery cages. You can understand the growers being pissed off after investing in colony cages and then being told they have to go full free-range by the supermarkets. If not for that, 10 years would seem plenty of time to prepare. Other parts of the world banned battery cages decades ago
...caused the shortage is the supermarkets deciding to ban colony caged eggs much later than the government introduced the law which banned only battery cages.
Egg producers were given two choices and decided on colony caged production. Investment to change over was mega millions. This investment is now worthless thanks to the Countdown decision to only stock from free range farms.
Result being some egg farms are not able to make another investment and also the resource consent issues to change over farming practices - circa 3 years.
Hand wringing over a few eggs while we strangle energy investment and the self-righteous throw eggs at paintings.
Sure, we need to transition, however none of the alternatives will be ready in time. Shortages of everything, because everything is based on oil. Most of the world will starve.
We got a couple of chickens mid last year after not having any for a year or two. Cost $25 each, and feed costs about $15 a month, we get a dozen fresh eggs each week, they also eat our bread and vege scraps. They are completely free range and live a damn good life cruising around our property, and occasionally the neighbors. Pretty cheap eggs (admittedly we already had the hen house and other stuff you need).
Fails to mention that egg prices were up 22% year-on-year in October (when they peaked), 15% in November 2021, 18% in June 2019 (and I could go on).
More seriously, this is a good warm up for when our agri-businesses have to change practices to comply with stricter domestic and international rules and standards. Food will get more expensive because producing it will require more land, materials, labour etc. When higher food prices increase the CPI, hopefully RBNZ won't get all excited and try and make more people unemployed to 'fight inflation'.
$8.50 a dozen when you can find them and fully expecting $10 a dozen before the shortage ends. To be honest I'm happy paying that for the only brand that I will buy and strangely it was all that Countdown had left on the shelf at one point. I guess most people cannot taste the difference but if you eat them poached on toast you want decent eggs.
It seems to me that when given the ultimatum "change or perish" many producers decided the latter option was actually preferable. If given a choice between investing millions of dollars into a new chicken farm or simply winding up the current one while extracting as much profit as possible before your 10 years is up, then selling the land off to a residential developer, I would think that retiring on a nice pile of money in the bank at 5% is a pretty darn good option.
Did the Govt provide any financial assistance to the chicken farmers to buy new farms for the chickens to run around on? If not, why not? Surely farmers exiting the industry should have been foreseen and efforts made to prevent it?
I just do not have words on the intelligence of whoever made this decision.
First find the alternative and make it viable and then stop the things which have been started in the first place.
Why are we doing things which will make us worse than third world countries
Yes i understand that and it's very obvious. I am not dumb.
But the issue here my dear friend is the numbers.
We should have stopped cage eggs when we have the potential to match the cage free eggs with same amount. Currently we are running short, hence the shortage and price rise.
Well i guess i explained myself better this time.
Egg price indicate more extremely aggressive OCR rate hike. At 2% increase for each review time,it must be increased to at least10% in end of 2023.NZRB must make economy into total collapse situation to fix this inflation problem. Once unemployment reach 80%, all problems will be fixed. Go NZRB ! It is time to go wild and aggressive!
We run about 100 chooks free range. Price of chook food has doubled over the 10 years we have had them. We used to pay around $170pm a few years back. Last months bill was over $400. Lady at the factory told me that our 25kg bag of maise, currently $23 will soon be going up to $40. We are going to downsize. Chooks don't lay an egg a day. They moult and don't lay for months on end. Some lay eggs in the bushes and then come out with a tribe in a few weeks time. Half are roosters. Egg sales have never covered the food bill. We don't kill off our old girls but do eat the roosters.
I have an egg farmer opposite me,
30 x Size 8.5 Jumbo XL Award winning Premium Pasture Eggs - Fresh Daily
NZ$31.90
they are amazing never go back to supermarket
"Plans were also made in 2017 to ban colony-caged eggs, although this change hasn’t yet eventuated" Wrong.
This may have been in a Bill but was certainly not in the final legislation.
There is no definition in the Animal welfare Act 2018 that defines colony-caged eggs or battery eggs. It defines an area per hen, cage height and other welfare requirements but no such thing as battery, free range, barns etc. Of course the colony caging must comply with the legislation but the supermarkets would not know that. The old fashioned battery cages as known before 2012 would not comply with the current legislation.
For those interested, including the writer of this article download the Act and search layer hen.
The Super market saying the consumer does not want colony eggs is also claptrap until I see the survey questions and the sample size and even better the age and income groups as well. The banning of colony eggs is a supermarket requirement and not a legislative one. I suspect a higher profit margin will be made.
And often retailers and corporates try and get in front of legislation rather than running things to the wire. Give yourself some space, remove chances for ambiguity, or multiple changes where you can just make one change.
Maybe there will be a decent market through independent green grocers to sell eggs deemed less socially acceptable.
Get woke, no yoke.
In another eggciting sign of the inlationary times my local chippy is charging $2.20 for that alternative source of protein, the single deep fried mussel. Lots of price shocks have surprised me, but this was the worst. Used to be about 50c just a few short years ago. I cancelled my order when I realised.
Eggs from hens ranging in the forest , maybe they get ETS credits as well.
We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment.
Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.