Currencies
US treasury yields moved higher supporting the US Dollar which rose for the eighth straight week, its longest run since 2005. China consumer prices increased 0.1% y/y in August. Although China edged out of deflation, soft pricing pressures point to weak d
11th Sep 23, 7:24am
US treasury yields moved higher supporting the US Dollar which rose for the eighth straight week, its longest run since 2005. China consumer prices increased 0.1% y/y in August. Although China edged out of deflation, soft pricing pressures point to weak d
Reserve Bank bolsters currency intervention war chest as Robertson lines up capital boost and fresh indemnity for the central bank
9th Sep 23, 9:11am
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Reserve Bank bolsters currency intervention war chest as Robertson lines up capital boost and fresh indemnity for the central bank
US labour market tight. Weekly jobless claims falls to lowest level in 7 months. Immaculate disinflation vs the Phillips Curve: is this time different? History informs job losses required to return inflation to targeted levels
8th Sep 23, 8:05am
US labour market tight. Weekly jobless claims falls to lowest level in 7 months. Immaculate disinflation vs the Phillips Curve: is this time different? History informs job losses required to return inflation to targeted levels
Global rates lower across the board, lower than expected US jobless claims data. The yuan weakens to a 16-year low; no spillover for NZD and AUD which hold up against robust USD. EUR and GBP fall to three-month lows; JPY supported by lower rates backdrop
8th Sep 23, 7:50am
Global rates lower across the board, lower than expected US jobless claims data. The yuan weakens to a 16-year low; no spillover for NZD and AUD which hold up against robust USD. EUR and GBP fall to three-month lows; JPY supported by lower rates backdrop
The ISM US services sector survey was stronger than expected. US treasuries extended the recent move higher. The Bank of Canada held rates steady. Asian policy makers have been pushing back against currency weakness
7th Sep 23, 8:06am
The ISM US services sector survey was stronger than expected. US treasuries extended the recent move higher. The Bank of Canada held rates steady. Asian policy makers have been pushing back against currency weakness
Good news is bad news; strong ISM Services PMI propels US bond yields. Crude oil on a tear, advancing in 9 of 10 days, up 30% from late June lows. GBP lags as BoE Governor Bailey signals tightening cycle end is approaching
7th Sep 23, 8:00am
Good news is bad news; strong ISM Services PMI propels US bond yields. Crude oil on a tear, advancing in 9 of 10 days, up 30% from late June lows. GBP lags as BoE Governor Bailey signals tightening cycle end is approaching
US yields rebound inducing broad based USD strength. USD on track for 8th week of gains - longest winning streak in 10+ years
6th Sep 23, 8:39am
US yields rebound inducing broad based USD strength. USD on track for 8th week of gains - longest winning streak in 10+ years
Weak China Caixin services PMI triggers fall in Asia-Pacific currencies and broad USD strength. Oil prices up to fresh high for the year on extended production/export cuts. GDT dairy auction shows a rare lift in pricing
6th Sep 23, 7:55am
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Weak China Caixin services PMI triggers fall in Asia-Pacific currencies and broad USD strength. Oil prices up to fresh high for the year on extended production/export cuts. GDT dairy auction shows a rare lift in pricing
Early signs of recovery in Beijing and Shanghai property markets after policy easing. US equity futures down a touch; US Treasury futures point to small lift in rates
5th Sep 23, 7:46am
Early signs of recovery in Beijing and Shanghai property markets after policy easing. US equity futures down a touch; US Treasury futures point to small lift in rates
Roger J Kerr says the NZ dollar has only been able to appreciate upwards on three occasions in August over the last 14 years
4th Sep 23, 8:09am
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Roger J Kerr says the NZ dollar has only been able to appreciate upwards on three occasions in August over the last 14 years
A mixed US employment report initially induces risk-on price action. Positive vibes evaporate following stronger-than-expected ISM factory PMI. Market pricing dials back (50% to 40%) implied probability of a Fed November rate hike
4th Sep 23, 7:39am
A mixed US employment report initially induces risk-on price action. Positive vibes evaporate following stronger-than-expected ISM factory PMI. Market pricing dials back (50% to 40%) implied probability of a Fed November rate hike
The US labour market report provided further evidence their economy is on track for ‘soft landing’. US treasury yields moved higher lending support to the US Dollar. Crude oil prices now at highest level since November as supplies tighten
4th Sep 23, 7:30am
The US labour market report provided further evidence their economy is on track for ‘soft landing’. US treasury yields moved higher lending support to the US Dollar. Crude oil prices now at highest level since November as supplies tighten
Market slips into wait-and-see mode ahead of US jobs data; tight ranges trade. US PCE in line with expectation. Eurozone inflation in-line, still 2.5x above target. China PMIs not so bad; piecemeal stimulus measures may be lifting activity
1st Sep 23, 8:07am
Market slips into wait-and-see mode ahead of US jobs data; tight ranges trade. US PCE in line with expectation. Eurozone inflation in-line, still 2.5x above target. China PMIs not so bad; piecemeal stimulus measures may be lifting activity
Global rates push lower, led by European yields as some tightening priced in is pared back. New policies announced to help revive China's property market. CNY and JPY stronger, EUR and GBP weaker; NZD and AUD range-trade
1st Sep 23, 7:59am
Global rates push lower, led by European yields as some tightening priced in is pared back. New policies announced to help revive China's property market. CNY and JPY stronger, EUR and GBP weaker; NZD and AUD range-trade
Falling US bond yields and a softer dollar has been the storyline for this week. ADP employment change falls to 5 month low; US labour market cooling. AUS monthly CPI falls to below 5% to 17 mth low; RBA looking done
31st Aug 23, 8:12am
Falling US bond yields and a softer dollar has been the storyline for this week. ADP employment change falls to 5 month low; US labour market cooling. AUS monthly CPI falls to below 5% to 17 mth low; RBA looking done
Softer than expected US economic data increased expectations of the Fed remaining on hold in September which underpinned equities and contributed to lower treasury yields
31st Aug 23, 7:58am
Softer than expected US economic data increased expectations of the Fed remaining on hold in September which underpinned equities and contributed to lower treasury yields
US data much weaker than expected, showing much easier labour market conditions and lower consumer confidence. Markets cheer the data, reducing pricing for further rate hikes; US Treasury yields fall significantly
30th Aug 23, 7:45am
US data much weaker than expected, showing much easier labour market conditions and lower consumer confidence. Markets cheer the data, reducing pricing for further rate hikes; US Treasury yields fall significantly
Risk sentiment improves: China announces more measures to restore confidence. CSI300 rips higher by over 5% but fails to maintain gains as foreign sellers take advantage to quit
29th Aug 23, 8:30am
Risk sentiment improves: China announces more measures to restore confidence. CSI300 rips higher by over 5% but fails to maintain gains as foreign sellers take advantage to quit
Global risk sentiment supported by China's measures to "invigorate capital markets and boost investor activity". Global equities push higher; UST yields well contained, modestly lower
29th Aug 23, 7:34am
Global risk sentiment supported by China's measures to "invigorate capital markets and boost investor activity". Global equities push higher; UST yields well contained, modestly lower
Roger J Kerr says despite the abundance of negative economic fundamentals supposedly weighing the Kiwi dollar down, the over-powering offshore forces are likely to deliver the opposite outcome
28th Aug 23, 8:20am
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Roger J Kerr says despite the abundance of negative economic fundamentals supposedly weighing the Kiwi dollar down, the over-powering offshore forces are likely to deliver the opposite outcome
Powell commits to restrictive policy until inflation beaten. Little market reaction. Lagarde says ECB will also stay restrictive
28th Aug 23, 7:20am
Powell commits to restrictive policy until inflation beaten. Little market reaction. Lagarde says ECB will also stay restrictive
US initial jobless claims data in sign of lingering labour market reslience. US Treasury yields higher, US equities lower and broad-based recovery in the USD
25th Aug 23, 8:03am
US initial jobless claims data in sign of lingering labour market reslience. US Treasury yields higher, US equities lower and broad-based recovery in the USD
US and EU PMI surveys point to a greater than expected slowdown in economic activity. This weak data contributed to a large move lower in global bond yields. Initial weakness in European currencies reverse as US data also disappoints
24th Aug 23, 7:52am
US and EU PMI surveys point to a greater than expected slowdown in economic activity. This weak data contributed to a large move lower in global bond yields. Initial weakness in European currencies reverse as US data also disappoints
Sergei Guriev examines Russia's rapidly deteriorating fiscal outlook in the wake of the ruble's latest tumble
23rd Aug 23, 10:01am
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Sergei Guriev examines Russia's rapidly deteriorating fiscal outlook in the wake of the ruble's latest tumble
Equities down, yields down, WTI crude down, gold up, US dollar mixed. USDCNY 7.3 level holds as Chinese authorities continue to defend the yuan. US treasuries mixed: short end firms, long dated yields ease from recent highs
23rd Aug 23, 8:03am
Equities down, yields down, WTI crude down, gold up, US dollar mixed. USDCNY 7.3 level holds as Chinese authorities continue to defend the yuan. US treasuries mixed: short end firms, long dated yields ease from recent highs
