Currencies
Market relieved that US PCE deflators were bang in line with expectations; US 10-year rate well down from its overnight high. BoJ board member sows the seed for exit strategy from current ultra-easy policy stance, supporting JPY
1st Mar 24, 7:59am
Market relieved that US PCE deflators were bang in line with expectations; US 10-year rate well down from its overnight high. BoJ board member sows the seed for exit strategy from current ultra-easy policy stance, supporting JPY
Limited moves across global asset markets. The RBNZ’s decision to leave rates on hold at 5.5% and soften its hawkish bias sent bond yields and the NZD/USD sharply lower as the market priced out the residual risk the Bank would hike again
29th Feb 24, 8:04am
Limited moves across global asset markets. The RBNZ’s decision to leave rates on hold at 5.5% and soften its hawkish bias sent bond yields and the NZD/USD sharply lower as the market priced out the residual risk the Bank would hike again
Market ignores chunky downside misses to US consumer confidence and durable goods orders data. Pricing of rate hike chance fades leading into RBNZ MPS today, now just priced at a 20% chance; strong analyst consensus for no-change
28th Feb 24, 7:43am
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Market ignores chunky downside misses to US consumer confidence and durable goods orders data. Pricing of rate hike chance fades leading into RBNZ MPS today, now just priced at a 20% chance; strong analyst consensus for no-change
Latest monthly figures from the Reserve Bank reveal it boosted its 'foreign currency intervention capacity' by a further NZ$810 million last month - and it doesn't look to be finished
27th Feb 24, 3:49pm
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Latest monthly figures from the Reserve Bank reveal it boosted its 'foreign currency intervention capacity' by a further NZ$810 million last month - and it doesn't look to be finished
US equity markets pause relentless ascent, remain close to record highs. Yields up, crude up, gold down, US dollar up
27th Feb 24, 8:27am
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US equity markets pause relentless ascent, remain close to record highs. Yields up, crude up, gold down, US dollar up
Global rates push higher, driven by Europe and heavy US bond supply; US 10-year rate up 6bps from NZ close. Long NZD positions pared ahead of RBNZ MPS; market pricing for near-term rate hikes eased back a little
27th Feb 24, 7:36am
Global rates push higher, driven by Europe and heavy US bond supply; US 10-year rate up 6bps from NZ close. Long NZD positions pared ahead of RBNZ MPS; market pricing for near-term rate hikes eased back a little
Roger J Kerr says the Australia-US exchange rate is likely to surge higher faster and further than the NZ dollar-US dollar rate over coming months
26th Feb 24, 8:08am
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Roger J Kerr says the Australia-US exchange rate is likely to surge higher faster and further than the NZ dollar-US dollar rate over coming months
Equity markets consolidated after a week where major indices in Japan, Europe and North America reached record highs. Data dependency and inflation sustainability the key policy drivers before lower rates
26th Feb 24, 7:20am
Equity markets consolidated after a week where major indices in Japan, Europe and North America reached record highs. Data dependency and inflation sustainability the key policy drivers before lower rates
Record breaking equity markets across Japan, euro area and US; Nvidia's blockbuster earnings report propels the stock higher and drives S&P500 up 2%. Market continues to pare back expectations of Fed easing
23rd Feb 24, 7:41am
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Record breaking equity markets across Japan, euro area and US; Nvidia's blockbuster earnings report propels the stock higher and drives S&P500 up 2%. Market continues to pare back expectations of Fed easing
There were limited catalysts for global asset markets overnight in the absence of first-tier economic data or fresh guidance from policy makers. But eyes are on both the Fed minutes, and the keenly awaited Nvidia corporate results
22nd Feb 24, 8:31am
There were limited catalysts for global asset markets overnight in the absence of first-tier economic data or fresh guidance from policy makers. But eyes are on both the Fed minutes, and the keenly awaited Nvidia corporate results
US equities down, yields up, crude up, gold up, US dollar mixed. Low volatility, subdued trading conditions prevail amidst quiet data flow. Traders watching key topside technical breaks for the Kiwi versus the dollar & yen
22nd Feb 24, 8:24am
US equities down, yields up, crude up, gold up, US dollar mixed. Low volatility, subdued trading conditions prevail amidst quiet data flow. Traders watching key topside technical breaks for the Kiwi versus the dollar & yen
US equities lower, led by tech, US Treasury yields lower and USD broadly weaker. Market unperturbed by surprise cut to China's 5-year prime loan rate, scepticism that it will achieve much. NZD outperforms
21st Feb 24, 7:49am
US equities lower, led by tech, US Treasury yields lower and USD broadly weaker. Market unperturbed by surprise cut to China's 5-year prime loan rate, scepticism that it will achieve much. NZD outperforms
US equities closed, US yields closed, crude up, gold up, US dollar flat. Markets await RBA minutes, PBoC rate decision, and Canadian CPI. NZD near where resistance expected to halt its rise
20th Feb 24, 7:52am
US equities closed, US yields closed, crude up, gold up, US dollar flat. Markets await RBA minutes, PBoC rate decision, and Canadian CPI. NZD near where resistance expected to halt its rise
China reopens after LNY holiday with positive economic snippets on travel and spending. European gas and carbon markets continue show much weaker pricing
20th Feb 24, 7:43am
China reopens after LNY holiday with positive economic snippets on travel and spending. European gas and carbon markets continue show much weaker pricing
Roger J Kerr says the Kiwi dollar does appear to have more opportunity for upside over coming weeks and break above the temporary shackle at 0.6150
19th Feb 24, 8:05am
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Roger J Kerr says the Kiwi dollar does appear to have more opportunity for upside over coming weeks and break above the temporary shackle at 0.6150
US producer price inflation was higher than expected and contributed to a weak tone across bond and equity markets. US treasury yields reached the highest level in 2024
19th Feb 24, 7:53am
US producer price inflation was higher than expected and contributed to a weak tone across bond and equity markets. US treasury yields reached the highest level in 2024
US disinflation conundrum: PPI joins CPI as week's inflation data prints hot. Is the Fed done hiking? Rate hike chatter emerging as inflation bottoms
19th Feb 24, 7:50am
US disinflation conundrum: PPI joins CPI as week's inflation data prints hot. Is the Fed done hiking? Rate hike chatter emerging as inflation bottoms
Soft data across the globe: Aussie jobs, UK & Japan GDP & US retail sales all miss. Strong US CPI report fading from memory, US dollar gives up gains
16th Feb 24, 8:36am
Soft data across the globe: Aussie jobs, UK & Japan GDP & US retail sales all miss. Strong US CPI report fading from memory, US dollar gives up gains
Gloomy data - UK and Japan in recession in 2H23, Australian unemployment rate at a 2-year high; and a big downside miss in US retail sales for January. USD broadly weaker
16th Feb 24, 7:47am
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Gloomy data - UK and Japan in recession in 2H23, Australian unemployment rate at a 2-year high; and a big downside miss in US retail sales for January. USD broadly weaker
Global equity and bond markets rebounded from the losses triggered by the surprisingly strong US inflation data. NZD/USD edged upwards as the US dollar retraced from 2024 highs aligned with the fall in treasury yields
15th Feb 24, 7:45am
Global equity and bond markets rebounded from the losses triggered by the surprisingly strong US inflation data. NZD/USD edged upwards as the US dollar retraced from 2024 highs aligned with the fall in treasury yields
US CPI runs hot, core inflation remains at 3.9%, reducing likelihood of May cut. US treasury yields and the dollar rip higher, 10-yr yield approaches 4.30%. UK unemployment falls from 4.2% to 3.8%; BoE likely not cutting until 2H
14th Feb 24, 8:16am
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US CPI runs hot, core inflation remains at 3.9%, reducing likelihood of May cut. US treasury yields and the dollar rip higher, 10-yr yield approaches 4.30%. UK unemployment falls from 4.2% to 3.8%; BoE likely not cutting until 2H
Stronger than expected US CPI data rock the market, pushing out the timing of any likely Fed rate cuts; Core measure up 0.4% m/m, annual figure steady at 3.9%. NZ inflation expectations data were market-friendly
14th Feb 24, 7:29am
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Stronger than expected US CPI data rock the market, pushing out the timing of any likely Fed rate cuts; Core measure up 0.4% m/m, annual figure steady at 3.9%. NZ inflation expectations data were market-friendly
Pricing for RBNZ rate hikes fades a little, down to 33% chance for February meeting; domestic rates market messy with OIS yields lower, 2-year swap lifting to 5.23%. US Treasury rates little changed; US equities continue to push higher
13th Feb 24, 7:48am
Pricing for RBNZ rate hikes fades a little, down to 33% chance for February meeting; domestic rates market messy with OIS yields lower, 2-year swap lifting to 5.23%. US Treasury rates little changed; US equities continue to push higher
S&P500 closes above 5000 for the first time, climbing in 14 of past 15 weeks. ANZ bank releases OCR revision note, calls for 25bps hikes in February & April
12th Feb 24, 8:36am
S&P500 closes above 5000 for the first time, climbing in 14 of past 15 weeks. ANZ bank releases OCR revision note, calls for 25bps hikes in February & April
Roger J Kerr says the RBNZ, it appears, are now belatedly recognising the difficulty in reducing the sticky/wage-push domestic inflation that has been running close to 4.00% for many years
12th Feb 24, 8:35am
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Roger J Kerr says the RBNZ, it appears, are now belatedly recognising the difficulty in reducing the sticky/wage-push domestic inflation that has been running close to 4.00% for many years
