Currencies
Gloomy data - UK and Japan in recession in 2H23, Australian unemployment rate at a 2-year high; and a big downside miss in US retail sales for January. USD broadly weaker
16th Feb 24, 7:47am
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Gloomy data - UK and Japan in recession in 2H23, Australian unemployment rate at a 2-year high; and a big downside miss in US retail sales for January. USD broadly weaker
Global equity and bond markets rebounded from the losses triggered by the surprisingly strong US inflation data. NZD/USD edged upwards as the US dollar retraced from 2024 highs aligned with the fall in treasury yields
15th Feb 24, 7:45am
Global equity and bond markets rebounded from the losses triggered by the surprisingly strong US inflation data. NZD/USD edged upwards as the US dollar retraced from 2024 highs aligned with the fall in treasury yields
US CPI runs hot, core inflation remains at 3.9%, reducing likelihood of May cut. US treasury yields and the dollar rip higher, 10-yr yield approaches 4.30%. UK unemployment falls from 4.2% to 3.8%; BoE likely not cutting until 2H
14th Feb 24, 8:16am
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US CPI runs hot, core inflation remains at 3.9%, reducing likelihood of May cut. US treasury yields and the dollar rip higher, 10-yr yield approaches 4.30%. UK unemployment falls from 4.2% to 3.8%; BoE likely not cutting until 2H
Stronger than expected US CPI data rock the market, pushing out the timing of any likely Fed rate cuts; Core measure up 0.4% m/m, annual figure steady at 3.9%. NZ inflation expectations data were market-friendly
14th Feb 24, 7:29am
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Stronger than expected US CPI data rock the market, pushing out the timing of any likely Fed rate cuts; Core measure up 0.4% m/m, annual figure steady at 3.9%. NZ inflation expectations data were market-friendly
Pricing for RBNZ rate hikes fades a little, down to 33% chance for February meeting; domestic rates market messy with OIS yields lower, 2-year swap lifting to 5.23%. US Treasury rates little changed; US equities continue to push higher
13th Feb 24, 7:48am
Pricing for RBNZ rate hikes fades a little, down to 33% chance for February meeting; domestic rates market messy with OIS yields lower, 2-year swap lifting to 5.23%. US Treasury rates little changed; US equities continue to push higher
S&P500 closes above 5000 for the first time, climbing in 14 of past 15 weeks. ANZ bank releases OCR revision note, calls for 25bps hikes in February & April
12th Feb 24, 8:36am
S&P500 closes above 5000 for the first time, climbing in 14 of past 15 weeks. ANZ bank releases OCR revision note, calls for 25bps hikes in February & April
Roger J Kerr says the RBNZ, it appears, are now belatedly recognising the difficulty in reducing the sticky/wage-push domestic inflation that has been running close to 4.00% for many years
12th Feb 24, 8:35am
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Roger J Kerr says the RBNZ, it appears, are now belatedly recognising the difficulty in reducing the sticky/wage-push domestic inflation that has been running close to 4.00% for many years
The S&P500 closed at a record high. US CPI revisions received greater attention than usual but were unchanged. The NZD advanced despite a generally stable US dollar backdrop amid a sharp repricing of RBNZ expectations
12th Feb 24, 7:33am
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The S&P500 closed at a record high. US CPI revisions received greater attention than usual but were unchanged. The NZD advanced despite a generally stable US dollar backdrop amid a sharp repricing of RBNZ expectations
Global rates push higher; Fed and ECB speakers continue to run the line of being patient regarding future rate cuts. USD broadly stronger, NZD back below 0.61 and AUD below 0.65
9th Feb 24, 7:41am
Global rates push higher; Fed and ECB speakers continue to run the line of being patient regarding future rate cuts. USD broadly stronger, NZD back below 0.61 and AUD below 0.65
NZD peeks back through 61 US cents, unwilling to extend beyond 0.6120's. 4Q NZ jobs data runs hotter than RBNZ forecasts, odds of February hike rise. Markets track sideways amidst a quiet data week, USD consolidates gains
8th Feb 24, 8:00am
NZD peeks back through 61 US cents, unwilling to extend beyond 0.6120's. 4Q NZ jobs data runs hotter than RBNZ forecasts, odds of February hike rise. Markets track sideways amidst a quiet data week, USD consolidates gains
S&P is closing in on the 5,000 level. US treasury yields stable. ECB official pushed back against chance of near-term rate cuts. Stronger NZ labour market data contributed to higher yields and the market pricing a small chance of a hike
8th Feb 24, 7:49am
S&P is closing in on the 5,000 level. US treasury yields stable. ECB official pushed back against chance of near-term rate cuts. Stronger NZ labour market data contributed to higher yields and the market pricing a small chance of a hike
US Treasury yields fall back after significant two-day sell-off. Chinese equities well supported after State regulator steps in. No fireworks from RBA yesterday. Dairy prices continue to recover
7th Feb 24, 7:53am
US Treasury yields fall back after significant two-day sell-off. Chinese equities well supported after State regulator steps in. No fireworks from RBA yesterday. Dairy prices continue to recover
Roger J Kerr says the view and outlook that the US dollar will weaken against all currencies this year is now under some scrutiny and pressure
5th Feb 24, 8:02am
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Roger J Kerr says the view and outlook that the US dollar will weaken against all currencies this year is now under some scrutiny and pressure
A large upside surprise to US nonfarm payrolls prompts a further scaling back of market pricing for near term rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Treasury yields and the US dollar surge higher in response to the labour market data
5th Feb 24, 7:46am
A large upside surprise to US nonfarm payrolls prompts a further scaling back of market pricing for near term rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Treasury yields and the US dollar surge higher in response to the labour market data
Despite Powell kiboshing March cut, yields continue to fall, dollar reverses. Eurozone core inflation falls from 3.4% to 3.3%; headline remains sub-3%. Bank of England delivers hawkish hold; odds of May cut fall below 50%
2nd Feb 24, 8:48am
Despite Powell kiboshing March cut, yields continue to fall, dollar reverses. Eurozone core inflation falls from 3.4% to 3.3%; headline remains sub-3%. Bank of England delivers hawkish hold; odds of May cut fall below 50%
US jobless claims rise; strong productivity contains unit labour cost inflation to a low rate; lift in ISM manufacturing index largely ignored. US Treasury yields push down to fresh lows for the year; 5-year rate at lowest level since June
2nd Feb 24, 7:50am
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US jobless claims rise; strong productivity contains unit labour cost inflation to a low rate; lift in ISM manufacturing index largely ignored. US Treasury yields push down to fresh lows for the year; 5-year rate at lowest level since June
Equities down, yields down, crude down, gold up, US dollar down following soft ADP and ECI data. Australian CPI falls
1st Feb 24, 7:56am
Equities down, yields down, crude down, gold up, US dollar down following soft ADP and ECI data. Australian CPI falls
Weaker technology stocks and renewed concerns about regional banks in the US weigh on risk sentiment. Softer than expected US labour market data supported a fall in US treasury yields and weaker US dollar
1st Feb 24, 7:49am
Weaker technology stocks and renewed concerns about regional banks in the US weigh on risk sentiment. Softer than expected US labour market data supported a fall in US treasury yields and weaker US dollar
Higher than expected US job openings data points to resilience in the US labour markets. UST yields rebound. The Eurozone narrowly avoids recession. Yields on Chinese 10-year bonds fell to the lowest level in more than 20 years
31st Jan 24, 7:55am
Higher than expected US job openings data points to resilience in the US labour markets. UST yields rebound. The Eurozone narrowly avoids recession. Yields on Chinese 10-year bonds fell to the lowest level in more than 20 years
Equities up, yields down, crude down, gold down, US dollar mixed. FOMC, TFA, tech earnings, US jobs data may set the tone for remainder of 1Q
30th Jan 24, 8:03am
Equities up, yields down, crude down, gold down, US dollar mixed. FOMC, TFA, tech earnings, US jobs data may set the tone for remainder of 1Q
Markets in holding pattern but fully prices in April cut for ECB, dragging down European rates and EUR. Oil prices fall back after strong Asia open
30th Jan 24, 7:52am
Markets in holding pattern but fully prices in April cut for ECB, dragging down European rates and EUR. Oil prices fall back after strong Asia open
US PCE in-line; market pricing a 50/50 split for the 20 March FOMC meeting. Rates markets currently project 5-6 cuts vs the Fed's median dot plot of 3
29th Jan 24, 8:52am
US PCE in-line; market pricing a 50/50 split for the 20 March FOMC meeting. Rates markets currently project 5-6 cuts vs the Fed's median dot plot of 3
Roger J Kerr says the still-high level of inflation that has declined a bit isn't yet cause for celebration and the RBNZ needs to explore more options to get it lower. But he sees US inflation march lower even if their economic data remains mixed
29th Jan 24, 8:30am
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Roger J Kerr says the still-high level of inflation that has declined a bit isn't yet cause for celebration and the RBNZ needs to explore more options to get it lower. But he sees US inflation march lower even if their economic data remains mixed
US data confirm solid end to the year for consumer spending and inflation tracking near target. Tokyo CPI data comes in surprisingly soft. ECB speakers deliver mixed messages on prospects for near-term policy easing
29th Jan 24, 7:44am
US data confirm solid end to the year for consumer spending and inflation tracking near target. Tokyo CPI data comes in surprisingly soft. ECB speakers deliver mixed messages on prospects for near-term policy easing
GDP up an annualised 3.3% in Q4, PCE deflator at 1.5% and core PCE deflator at 2%. US Treasury market supported by the benign inflation backdrop, yields slightly lower. European rates and EUR lower. NZD flat just over 61 USc
26th Jan 24, 8:34am
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GDP up an annualised 3.3% in Q4, PCE deflator at 1.5% and core PCE deflator at 2%. US Treasury market supported by the benign inflation backdrop, yields slightly lower. European rates and EUR lower. NZD flat just over 61 USc
