Currencies
Following volatility spike after US CPI release, markets settle to remain in prevailing ranges. CPI data does not alter expectations for path of Fed policy in 2024
13th Dec 23, 8:30am
Following volatility spike after US CPI release, markets settle to remain in prevailing ranges. CPI data does not alter expectations for path of Fed policy in 2024
US core CPI up 4.0% y/y, in line with market expectations but not weak enough to encourage the market to price in any more easing next year
13th Dec 23, 7:57am
US core CPI up 4.0% y/y, in line with market expectations but not weak enough to encourage the market to price in any more easing next year
US CPI and FOMC decision are this week's major events. If US CPI comes in as expected, the focus will shift to the Fed's latest projections/dot plots. Meanwhile the NZD trades in a narrow range
12th Dec 23, 8:26am
US CPI and FOMC decision are this week's major events. If US CPI comes in as expected, the focus will shift to the Fed's latest projections/dot plots. Meanwhile the NZD trades in a narrow range
US Treasury yields push higher amidst a heavy supply week, yields up 4-5bps. Key US CPI report tonight. Yen falls on chatter the BofJ in no special hurry to scrap negative rates
12th Dec 23, 7:45am
US Treasury yields push higher amidst a heavy supply week, yields up 4-5bps. Key US CPI report tonight. Yen falls on chatter the BofJ in no special hurry to scrap negative rates
Market pares 2024 rate cut expectations following solid US job report - yields/US dollar bounce. A huge week ahead headlined by Fed decision; ECB & BoE also meet, NZ 3Q GDP the local headliner
11th Dec 23, 8:57am
Market pares 2024 rate cut expectations following solid US job report - yields/US dollar bounce. A huge week ahead headlined by Fed decision; ECB & BoE also meet, NZ 3Q GDP the local headliner
Roger J Kerr says the evidence from all the US economic data over the last month has to be that the risks have subsided, therefore the Fed have done enough with tight monetary policy to achieve their 2.00% inflation target
11th Dec 23, 8:15am
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Roger J Kerr says the evidence from all the US economic data over the last month has to be that the risks have subsided, therefore the Fed have done enough with tight monetary policy to achieve their 2.00% inflation target
US labour market data was stronger than expected in November. US treasury yields increased and the US dollar gained snapping a 3-week loosing streak. China consumer price inflation fell 0.5%, the fastest decline in 3-years amid weak domestic demand
11th Dec 23, 7:43am
US labour market data was stronger than expected in November. US treasury yields increased and the US dollar gained snapping a 3-week loosing streak. China consumer price inflation fell 0.5%, the fastest decline in 3-years amid weak domestic demand
NZD consolidates gains. BoJ comments spark re-pricing frenzy, JPY takes flight. China trade data indicative of struggling economy, import volumes sluggish
8th Dec 23, 8:20am
NZD consolidates gains. BoJ comments spark re-pricing frenzy, JPY takes flight. China trade data indicative of struggling economy, import volumes sluggish
The yen has strengthened and JGB yields moved sharply higher following Bank of Japan signals of an exit from their large-scale stimulus and negative interest rates
8th Dec 23, 7:47am
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The yen has strengthened and JGB yields moved sharply higher following Bank of Japan signals of an exit from their large-scale stimulus and negative interest rates
Chinese authorities defend yuan following Moody's outlook downgrade. Soft US ADP Employment change. Australian economic growth eases to slowest pace in 12 months; Markets likely to enter into a holding pattern ahead of US non-farm jobs numbers
7th Dec 23, 8:34am
Chinese authorities defend yuan following Moody's outlook downgrade. Soft US ADP Employment change. Australian economic growth eases to slowest pace in 12 months; Markets likely to enter into a holding pattern ahead of US non-farm jobs numbers
Lower oil prices and US employment data help extend the global bond market rally, led by the long end. Rates down to fresh multi-month lows. But muted price action for US equities and currency
7th Dec 23, 7:52am
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Lower oil prices and US employment data help extend the global bond market rally, led by the long end. Rates down to fresh multi-month lows. But muted price action for US equities and currency
RBA leaves policy unchanged, keeps weak tightening bias, disappointing the hawks and sending their rates and AUD lower. ECB's Schnabel turns from hawkish to dovish, sending European rates much lower. Spillover effects on US Treasuries
6th Dec 23, 8:08am
RBA leaves policy unchanged, keeps weak tightening bias, disappointing the hawks and sending their rates and AUD lower. ECB's Schnabel turns from hawkish to dovish, sending European rates much lower. Spillover effects on US Treasuries
Recent price action reverses, with US Treasury yields up 10-12bps from last week's close. Risk appetite weaker, with US equities down and USD broadly stronger
5th Dec 23, 7:54am
Recent price action reverses, with US Treasury yields up 10-12bps from last week's close. Risk appetite weaker, with US equities down and USD broadly stronger
Roger J Kerr struggles to make sense of the Reserve Bank's latest 'stringent' message
4th Dec 23, 8:02am
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Roger J Kerr struggles to make sense of the Reserve Bank's latest 'stringent' message
A speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell failed to deter investors’ expectations of rate cuts. Market pricing implies a greater than 50% chance of a 25bps rate c weakness. Oil prices fall after OPEC+ members delay meeting in dispute about output quotas
4th Dec 23, 7:40am
A speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell failed to deter investors’ expectations of rate cuts. Market pricing implies a greater than 50% chance of a 25bps rate c weakness. Oil prices fall after OPEC+ members delay meeting in dispute about output quotas
US treasury yields moved higher across the curve and the US dollar gained. Eurozone CPI fell to slowest pace since 2021. OPEC+ confirms supply cuts
1st Dec 23, 7:54am
US treasury yields moved higher across the curve and the US dollar gained. Eurozone CPI fell to slowest pace since 2021. OPEC+ confirms supply cuts
Paola Subacchi cautions against the incoming Argentine leader's pledge to establish the US greenback as the sole legal tender
30th Nov 23, 3:53pm
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Paola Subacchi cautions against the incoming Argentine leader's pledge to establish the US greenback as the sole legal tender
Global bond market rally extends; US 10-year rate down to low of 4.25%. Market sceptical of RBNZ's higher-for-longer rate track; only modest lift in domestic rates and NZD reverses course overnight
30th Nov 23, 7:53am
Global bond market rally extends; US 10-year rate down to low of 4.25%. Market sceptical of RBNZ's higher-for-longer rate track; only modest lift in domestic rates and NZD reverses course overnight
US bond yields, dollar fall as Fed hawk Waller delivers dovish leaning speech. Australian nominal retail sales contracts for first time in 4 mths; RBA done?
29th Nov 23, 8:06am
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US bond yields, dollar fall as Fed hawk Waller delivers dovish leaning speech. Australian nominal retail sales contracts for first time in 4 mths; RBA done?
Fed speaker conveys on-hold policy message, "increasingly confident that policy is currently well-positioned", signals path to easier policy next year - just what the bond market wanted to hear
29th Nov 23, 7:56am
Fed speaker conveys on-hold policy message, "increasingly confident that policy is currently well-positioned", signals path to easier policy next year - just what the bond market wanted to hear
The Reserve Bank has added a further NZ$739 million to its 'foreign currency intervention capacity' in the past month and now has nearly NZ$18.5 billion held in offshore currencies to intervene if needed in foreign exchange markets
28th Nov 23, 3:55pm
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The Reserve Bank has added a further NZ$739 million to its 'foreign currency intervention capacity' in the past month and now has nearly NZ$18.5 billion held in offshore currencies to intervene if needed in foreign exchange markets
US equities topside momentum slowing following eye-watering ascent. A December risk rally contingent on the outcome of upcoming US jobs/CPI data
28th Nov 23, 8:20am
US equities topside momentum slowing following eye-watering ascent. A December risk rally contingent on the outcome of upcoming US jobs/CPI data
Americans return from holiday break to lower rates across Europe and US Treasury yields down 3-4bps from last week's close, 10-year rate down 7bps
28th Nov 23, 7:43am
Americans return from holiday break to lower rates across Europe and US Treasury yields down 3-4bps from last week's close, 10-year rate down 7bps
Despite US treasury yield rebound, US dollar weaker against all major peers. DXY falls below 200d MA, on track for largest MoM decline in 12 months
27th Nov 23, 9:01am
Despite US treasury yield rebound, US dollar weaker against all major peers. DXY falls below 200d MA, on track for largest MoM decline in 12 months
Roger J Kerr says the fundamental premise of lower US inflation, equals lower US interest rates, equals a lower US dollar still holds as compelling today as it was in early 2023
27th Nov 23, 8:52am
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Roger J Kerr says the fundamental premise of lower US inflation, equals lower US interest rates, equals a lower US dollar still holds as compelling today as it was in early 2023
