Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news the next stage of this economic crisis will be hard and positives will be rare.
Firstly in Australia, their prime minister is expected to warn today that the road ahead will be very difficult, and success is not assured. And he will warn companies that subsidies and handouts can't be sustained. He will say companies will need to "get off the medication" of handouts like JobKeeper, by declaring, "at some point you've got to get your economy out of ICU".
There is one exemplar that we should keep an eye on - Taiwan. They reported some unusual April data. Taiwanese industrial production rose +3.5% in April from the same month in 2019. However, it is not all positive in Taiwan - retail sales fell -10% on the same basis in April, although it has to be said that is far less than just about any other country for that month.
We should also note that on the mainland, the Chinese central bank authorities let their currency fall to its lowest level against the US dollar in more than 12 years. It wasn't a large daily move, but it is at a level that is sure to infuriate Washington - and probably intentionally. A weaker yuan keeps China in the trade game.
At the same time, there is a hint of a changed strategy in Beijing. The Chinese president said he is pursuing a new development plan, focusing on its domestic market rather than an export-led growth model. But what President Xi says and what actually happens often differ. However, if they do turn inward it will be a very major shift indeed.
In Germany overnight, a business sentiment survey has been seen as a bit of a turning point. It was still very negative, but less so in May than April, and less so than was expected.
And in Europe, there is mounting evidence that liquidity injections are not having the impact authorities expect. Fearful households are saving as hard as ever and stimulus cash does not have the multiplier impact intended. It is evidence that helicopter money doesn't work in times like these. And it helps explain why bank deposits are growing fast even as interest rates are virtually zero. The heightened savings impulse is a problem for policy makers.
Meanwhile, world trade is lower, but maybe not by as much as you might think. And certainly, that is the case for New Zealand. Trade has definitely not come to a grinding halt - that has been the feature of the domestic economies, rather than international trade. One item that has seen a huge spike in international trade during the lockdowns is for laptops - and of course almost all of them are being shipped from China.
The latest compilation of Covid-19 data is here. The global tally is now 5,460,700 and up +100,000 from this time yesterday, which is rising at a faster pace than recently. "Opening up" isn't helping.
Now, just over 30% of all cases globally are in the US, which is up +20,400 since this time yesterday to 1,633,000. This is an unchanged rate of increase and the highest daily increase of any country worldwide. US deaths are now exceed 98,000. Global deaths now exceed 346,000. Brazil, Russia, UK and India are the other hotspots where daily infections are rising faster than +5000. No other country is close to that benchmark.
In Australia, there are now 7118 cases (+9 since yesterday), 102 deaths (unchanged) and a recovery rate of just over 91% (unchanged). 31 people are in hospital there (-5) with 5 in ICU (unchanged). There are now 484 active cases in Australia (-17).
There were zero cases added yesterday locally, leaving the total at 1504 cases identified as either confirmed (1154) or probable (350). There is still only one person left in hospital with the disease, and they are not in ICU. Our recovery rate is still just under 97%, with only 27 people known to be still fighting the infection.
The UST 10yr yield is unchanged at 0.66%. Their 2-10 curve is at +49 bps. Their 1-5 curve is at +17 bps, and their 3m-10yr curve is +56 bps. The Aussie Govt 10yr yield is down -1 bp to 0.86%. The China Govt 10yr is up +4 bps at 2.65%. And the NZ Govt 10 yr yield is also firmer, up +2 bps at 0.64%.
The gold price is down slightly again today, down another -US$5 to US$1,728/oz.
Oil prices are firmer today, but only marginally. The US crude price is now just over US$33.50/bbl. The international oil price is just over US$35.50/bbl.
The Kiwi dollar is staying firm, now still at 61 USc while New York markets are closed. On the cross rates we are marginally lower at 93.2 AUc. Against the euro we are holding at 56 euro cents. That means our TWI-5 is little-changed at 67.
Bitcoin is softer again today, down nearly -1% to US$8,868 since this time yesterday. The bitcoin rate is charted in the exchange rate set below.
The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».
178 Comments
By the time the days out the USA will have recorded 100K deaths but more telling is the daily rise in active cases,
1.145mill in total, steady increase each day. Each of those on the way there has been a potential carrier and on top of only marginally controlled travel and social interaction the whole damn shooting box is going wide open. Massive trust in the herd immunity theory then.
Herd immunity is so far off. Latest study out of Sweden showed antibodies in only 7% of the population. Even if a country reaches 60 / 70% it’s still unclear how long people will retain their immunity. From previous similar types of corona viruses a year is typical before immunity disapaites.
Anyone pursuing herd immunity is playing a very uncertain game
Well the Americans certainly are play that game and lots of them are off to the beach this weekend. Expect more virus spikes in the next few days, they'll be well on the way to 200k dead in the next few months. BBC Coronavirus: Americans flock to beaches on Memorial Day weekend.
"In Florida, state police dispersed an unauthorised gathering of hundreds of people in Daytona Beach on Saturday." https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52795447
Isn't everyone stuck playing the herd immunity game -- because the virus is not avoidable in the long term?
Louis Pasteur, the father of modern antibiotics said, "Host immunity is the key."
Isn't closing borders just about delaying the inevitable?
Sweden showed antibodies in only 7% of the population
That's further along than their Scandinavian neighbours. It's likely that the entire population, including New Zealand, will eventually contract the virus. It seems from the most recent data that immunity is holding, and reported re-positives on the PCR are an artifact. Nice journal review of recent South Korean data here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=01Rftnxbi6w
Great explanatory video on the repositives. Thanks for sharing.
Seems the only relevant number is deaths. Everything else is determined by the effort put in. No test, no new cases etc.
Yes, and even then you have to look behind the numbers of why they happened, eg putting recovery CV19 patients into rest homes to recuperate as they did in NY, doesn't help.
Even then, who is counting COVID deaths in the slums of Mexico City in the places even the police can't go?
I am sure there are a number of other countries you add to that list - CHINA, India, Russia, Brazil.............
I am sure there are a number of other countries you add to that list - CHINA, India, Russia, Brazil.............
To be quoting National data in a country as diverse as the USA is meaningless. It's more like 50 countries, take out a few like NY and the picture looks completely different.
If people were interested in comparing like for like then you would compare all of Europe with all of the USA as they have approx. the same population.
Europe has had in excess of 165,000 deaths.
"But but but Trump"
- Buzzfeed reader
Trump is still an idiot though.
- Interest reader
A billionaire, US president, property mogul, tv star, super model diddling idiot.
741.4 million vs 328.2 million. You may need to learn the meaning on ‘like for like’.
Europe: 1 dead out of 4490
US: 1 dead out of 3349
Yes, should have clarified it more as Central/Western Europe.
Good idea then to go in and look at individual states county by county. where we lived for example a county of population just under 300K, records 2000 cases of which 1900 still active. This is a semi rural location. Europe started ahead of the USA and various countries closed borders and implemented lock downs much more severely than the States. That to me makes the States situation there look even more dire. Don’t want to be right on this, we have many friends who are not young that we are worried about, but cannot see how the virus cannot not but continue to spread in the States.
Europe has a much larger population than USA, so not a good comparison. Also, using your logic you'd "take out a few like" Italy, Spain, UK to make the Europe picture look completely different! The USA is a bad case of their own making, and no data manipulation can change that.
I should have clarified it and said Central/Western Europe but yes the logic is the same. They are all basket cases to a certain degree for the higher than needed mortality rates some have achieved, even for allowing natural, seasonality, age, density etc. factors.
It is unfortunate that “death” becomes the common denominator. For example how NZ assesses its annual road toll. Is a single car crash that kills one person more serious than a collision that leaves 3or 4 not dead, but severely impaired for life. The point being in the States two families of friends, one has had a diabetic with CV19, the other an asthmatic. Both now out of danger, but barely functional, huge negative impact on wellbeing and longevity. Those sort of unheralded victims are surely a massive statistic that needs to be acknowledged.
Yes agree, but it is the only 100% non-fudgable figure, or is it?
If someone has a pre-existing condition that makes them more likely to die of CV19 eg pneumonia, if they die then they are listed as a CV19 death, and if they get CV19 and then catch pneumonia afterwards and die, then it is still death by CV19. In fact, many states list the cause of death as CV19 without testing for it, they only have to suspect it may have been a cause. Other states were under-reporting deaths by not counting those that died outside the hospital care.
You can follow this type of trail all the way back along the line, eg was the Asthma preventable and if they didn't have it would that have prevented them from getting CV19 etc.
But your point is a good one and that is what makes the NZ stats. somewhat unusual. There is a ratio as you say, So for example for everyone one death, there would say be: (don't know actual figures).
10 in ICU
100 in hospital
1,000 diagnosed with it by can quarantine at home.
5,000 that have it in the general pop. but are showing no symptoms, as random testing is showing.
10,000, that had it and recovered and are now immune to some degree.
We haven't had the last two. which is strange.
One factor we do know is viruses are seasonal which relates to our indoor air quality environment. NZ has had a mild winter so far and we only enter our virus season next month.
A rural couple who lived relatively remotely - one had had a lingering 'cold' and one was healthy and felt great. Neighbours were very few and far between so the couple felt that if they isolated they would be fine from transmitting it to someone else. Later, the one with the cold decided to get tested as they had been unwell for much longer than usual. Decision was made for both to be tested, and as one had possible symptoms authorities tested the 'well' one too. Result - negative for the unwell, but positive for COVID for the healthy one.
Genuine questions: the random community testing that has been carried out - does that pickup asymptomatic people like the example above if they had carried it say 2mths ago. How long is an asymptomatic person capable of transmitting the virus for?
Obviously to get the virus, one of them had to come in contact with an infected person sufficiently.
My understanding is an asymptomatic person is someone that has the virus but does not show any symptoms. This is different from someone, and a different test, that has caught the virus and covered from it.
This link has some answers: https://www.health.harvard.edu/diseases-and-conditions/if-youve-been-ex….
"To be quoting National data in a country as diverse as the USA is meaningless. It's more like 50 countries, take out a few like NY and the picture looks completely different.
Let's look at it from your '50 country' approach: NZ has had lower mortality rate than any of the 50 USA states by far - that's 0 for 50 for the Trump/Pence/Kushner approach. Not meaningless comparison by any standard.
a source which allows comparisons between the US states as well as most countries, on the same basis for cases, deaths and deaths per million population is https://virusncov.com/covid-statistics/usa and https://virusncov.com/ perhaps the statista site using per 100,000 leads to confusion. Hawaii (one of the lowest death rates in the USA) has 12 deaths per million - and NZ has 4 deaths per million population. So I'll stick with 0 for 50 - US states compared to NZ.
Your only proving my point about making a comparison. One of the biggest determinants of infectivity and deaths is the seasonality of viruses.
If you were going to make a comparison in this part of the world, it would be with Australia, who has had a lockdown policy very similar with many parts of the USA. Which would suggest the difference is not the lockdown policy.
That is a great point and one that few people seem to understand. The US is vast.
Indeed opening back up is going to be hard , many will not re-open , and Morrison is correct , these handouts are unsustainable and has called it
The same applies to us , lets see when Cindy faces up to this awful reality, and says so
I trust you understand that Muller and therefore the Nats, seeing as, according to him it is "his" party and if they win the election it will be "his" govt, accept that they too, would have been flat out like a lizard drinking, spending borrowed money.
This, as I've said many, many times, is worldwide, and the effects will be long lasting because of the appalling way a number of countries have treated it.
Much of what is happening is completely out of the govt's (any flavour) hands.
Its the reaction to what is out of their hands that is important, and what you get for your spending that is important.
The COL removed most govt department performance metrics early in their term, removed the Regulatory Impact Statements on all government spending into the election, and have retained themselves a big war chest to win the election with by giving handouts. Several non urgent but ideological spends have been 'baked in' to current government spending.
In the end, that will be the difference between the two, but I suspect that the helicopter spend will win the day regardless of consequences in the future.
Bit like National paying millions for homeless and people to live in motels? I always found that interesting. Property investors loved National because they did everything in their power to push property prices up, and the poor loved them as well because they got to live in motels for free.
@independent ........bollocks , Helen Clarks Government started down that road of putting people up in motels .
Its worth noting that the current Government has been totally silent on the issue ............ they started it , so they dont go there .
And secondly , exactly what did National do to "push up property prices "............houses were hopelessly expensive way before the GFC when Key came to power .
I know , I bought a property at the time , Mortgage interest rates were circa 10% and houses were in stratospheric multiples of income
Oh Boatman, please!
Sir John Key was New Zealands finest real estate agent and you know it.
Or have you forgotten Sir John standing in front of the cameras and saying they couldn't implement a foreign buyer ban as it would contravene WTO agreements?
Yet shortly after the previous four way coalition got booted to the curb this coalition introduced the ban that National flatly refused to.
...and had to exempt countries as per the FTAs National kept pointing out, despite insisting they would simply renegotiate them?
History truly is written by the victors, apparently.
Pretty sure I remember JK and BE giving each other high 5's in parliament while telling everyone that having expensive houses was a sign of success, high immigration policies, no foreign buyer ban, no capital gains tax.
By no means am I saying Labour are saints, they are not, and a number of these issues are macroeconomic related.
It was "a good problem to have."
Well, so long as you already had yours.
Is it too much to ask they at least take responsibility for their decisions?
Or have we passed into the land of infinite external blame?
Each time you make this argument the same things are pointed out to you:
1. Refusing the RBNZ a DTI tool that would have enabled them to stimulate the economy without inflating house prices
2. Dragging their feet on anti-money-laundering legislation to the point of provoking international comment
3. Campaigning on the housing crisis then denying its very existence and celebrating it as "a good problem to have" for the next 9 years, while doing the above
4. Continuing to maintain property's privileged position vis-a-vis tax and subsidies after lamenting some of these subsidies as "communism by stealth".
So, at the very least those things.
Exactly. The cause is out of the government's hands, the response isn't.
We have only heard hollow statements of intent so far.
There are plenty of actions the government could be taking, are they?
For example, their officials could be scanning Auckland Council building consents issued over the last 6 months, then developing a strategy of approaching the owners / planned developers of 100s of developments with an offer of purchasing the site and developing themselves (obviously using private sector builders). This would get the building sector even busier than they would have been pre-lockdown.
Exactly. At least own your consequences for your decisions.
Yes I heard Muller interviewed on RNZ yesterday and he clearly stated they too would've borrowed and that austerity is not the path to follow.
Always interested in the 'Cindy' thing... its a patronizing put down without it being overt isn't it?
Primarily the domain of middle aged men terrified of a woman running the joint....it's as ridiculous as the outrage over a 13 year old Swedish girl with Asperger talking about the environment.
As a 50+ white relatively conservative male I don't get the threat and why so many get bent out of shape...
I have a few relatives, usually 50-70 year old men who seem to be terrified of 'Cindy'. She pushes their buttons some how. They hear her on the radio or see her on television and start yelling 'communist'! Seriously, its like grown men acting like children. Thought we'd moved past these types of insecurities in NZ, but perhaps part of our society hasn't.
If things were equal, then it would have been fine for woman to yell 'capitalist' in an abusive tone every time John Key appeared on TV. At this point in time, I'm not sure if a capitalist or communist system is more oppressive given the way things are currently working out.
that's funny, I suppose they vote blue through and through and look past the money, the side trips when in power to meet leaders in china, the spy in their ranks
Yip its closer to a form of tribalism for them. They've voted blue their entire lives then talk about something that happened in 1970 to justify why Simon Bridges was worthy of their vote in 2020.
I've voted red and blue and will happily switch sides if the policies and potential of candidates are worthy of it. More a utilitarian view towards the future, rather than some indoctrinated tribalism.
Yep agree 100% on all counts.. my vote is up for grabs every election.
The insanity of voting the same flavour (Red, Blue or Green) every election despite huge changes in personnel and policy behind the parties over time bewilders me.
It is an abdication of intellect
I've voted for conservative governments my whole life and I will never vote National while they are CCP shills.
it's cringey as - many of my conservative "friends" are still clinging to their cold war "reds under the bed" propaganda.
SpaceX astronaut launch better go without hitch or they will lose their minds (and for any triggered poor readers out there, no I don't wish for anything other than a successful mission).
Yes and then those same voters (National) are voting for a party that wants nothing else but to get into bed with the CCP - an actual communist party!
So are you for or against communism? You use the term as if its the end of the world for Cindy to be in power, but then happy to vote for National who may even have CCP insiders within their ranks or are receiving donations from them. You couldn't make this shit up.
I'm getting to the point where I'm realising some of the old schol National party voters (like some of my relatives) and those who label others here communists, have actually lost the plot completely and have no idea what is going on, nor what their party stands for, nor what their personal values and principles are.
National had a chance to distance itself from China with the new bloke ut some of the first words out were of opening the boarder with China.
Massive fail and they lost a hell of a lot if people right there. I'm kind of a Nat voter but Muller has put his foot in it from the start and lost me.
I just find it odd as if you look back at the history of the National party, one of its core values is campaigning on anti-communist principles, yet its support for the CCP and China appear to be second to none. John Keys trips to Beijing etc. It makes no sense. They should have the opposite political views towards the CCP, but they don't.
Obviously $$ is more important to them than keeping that anti-communism principle their party was partly founded upon. Oh well..
Muller stated he is Catholic, so should have values that align with that then wants to open the boarder with China who commits human rights abuses.
One or the other buddy!
Not as if the Catholic church doesn't have a spotty record in aligning with genocidal dictators...
IO Current PM has had trips to China and meetings with CCP officials and has used the term 'comrade' 15 times in 7mins on the international stage. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g9rsxFaq6Ig
.
I was in the company of some middle aged businessman extremely socially a while back and they absolutely loathed Ardern. Their personal put downs and general tone was appalling and I know their public persona is much different. Not so sure about the term ‘Cindy’ though. Soimon and Shon- key are also used on this site so what’s good for the goose and so on.
@ Pietro - yes agreed...I have heard things from 'friends' that make my skin crawl and I'm no shrinking violet....I wonder how these same men think of their wives, daughters, mothers...some of it is plain vile.
I guess my point is the 'Cindy' or 'princess communist' seems to be the domain of a certain demographic...which is mine. 50+, white, a bit of dough but incredibly insecure.
When asked about business confidence back in August 2018 Ardern said, "What I'm interested in is employee confidence, I'm interested in consumer confidence .. “
It is hardly surprising that a group who were told in no uncertain terms they were irrelevant did not join the cheerleading club.
Abuse is always pathetic for sure, but they abuse Trump, they abused John Key, they abused Simon Bridges. Sadly, abuse is the new normal in politics.
Meanwhile it's National who are in bed with an actual Communist party.
If the News Hub Reid poll is anything to go by, Jian Yang, at position 33 on the list is at risk of being tipped out
That would be the best single aspect of that poll being realised on election day. The National Party Board has now made Jian Yang one of their five preferred (Board nominated) list people, and it is quite likely he will have a higher list ranking this time round.
Exactly - Muller wants reopen the borders to China presumably so as they come in and buy our assets at discounted prices etc. I’ve never supported the idea of NZ selling out to China.
More then should have supported Winston Peters’s protest over the Chinese purchase of a virtual controlling stake in Silver Fern Farms, our largest meat processor?
Yes it's patronizing, it may be that we are growing tired of being patronized ourselves.
He said on Q + A last night that it is not the amount of money but how it's being spent.
And he's at least partly right.
But he didn't say what aspects of the current spend he would not have done.
It was a bit of an annoying interview as Jack Tame kept butting in on him, but I generally thought - they haven't yet got any kind of election strategy/policy thinking underway.
It’s Fame not Tame isn’t it. Does an almost passable imitation of a journalist being played by Cary Grant in one of his great comedies.
I think Tame was relatively patient with him. Left to his own devices, Muller would have exhausted the time available with waffle and unasked questions as no more time was available. Being succinct is not, at this point, something that could be attributed to him.
Just normal political factionalism, denigration and tribal signalling, no deeper significance. Remember Piggy Muldoon? Clarkula? Shonkey? or more recently Twitford, Soimon/Ximon as popularized on interest.co.nz.
Leave the 'Cindy' stuff for kiwiblog. (edit directed @boatman's original post).
Good for Taiwan. They knew CCP well enough to not to trust their report on the Wuhan outbreak, introduced the strict border restrictions on travels from CCP. Made all the difference. NZ is doing well with the border control should not open border to CCP for a while to be safe.
That is not to say, though, that their economy is not suffering. They too, like us, are affected by what is happening in the rest of the world and given so much of it has dealt with the virus absolutely appallingly, the effect will last much longer.
Giving people who already have Sufficient discretionary income a handout is daft. They just save it and force up asset prices. Better to adjust income tax rates in favor of low income earners, while keeping it neutral, ie the rich save less, the poor spend more.
Yep and with the amount of redundancies coming and happening on a hourly basis, it would be nice if they capped the tax rate on these payments to also help with individuals cash-flow, rather than wait until next March.
Yes and if we want business and our real economies to flourish and keep people employed we need to drop business rate tax to 19% (Similar to the UK) but keep the current business tax rate for those who are connected to the property market. So Landlords and REA's should remain at 28%.
Dropping Business Tax?
The tax paying individuals could barely cover the spending we had pre-covid. We now have even less net tax payers and a higher bill.
At some point we are going to have to tax business in a more meaningful way. The world is global and online. We need to move to revenue based tax to capture all the lost money heading overseas.
"We need to move to revenue based tax to capture all the lost money heading overseas."
How is this more meaningful? It sounds extremely arbitrary and unworkable. Plus a huge incentive for governments to ignore the compliance and payroll costs they keep foisting upon businesses while civil servants get an extra week's leave and full pay even if they don't work during epidemics.
High income != Rich
It depends what life stage you're at. What assets you invested in.
I'm trying to restock my farm, it's going to be slow but at least we are green. The wool industry is in crisis, rolling over in front of our eyes.
My farming friends in the States tell me the backlog in the meat industry is now over 8 months and they cannot get stock booked in till after Christmas.
So what's the future for meat, will the USA and Brazil start killing and swamp markets or will the Swine fever in China create demand ?
What's demand going to look like in a global recession. The decisions I make on the farm somehow seem more complex, with a lot more potential to the downside. I thinking of keeping away from meat destined for the restaurant trade, grinding beef looks safer.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/only-40-americans-plan-grill-memorial…
How are stock prices
Lamb store market is hotting up, I need to check the contract price for late winter kill. Not much money trading lambs at the moment. I had to go to Motueka at the weekend and the Ferry was full of stock heading north, one driver told me his company is doing four trucks a day to Affco.
Lots of steers heading north, I would have thought too light to kill. I don't like seeing animals killed young, just doesn't feel right to kill an animal like that. I suspect it's going to be volatile, most farmers around here won't get feed until spring.
Excuse my ignorance but what is a lamb if it's not a young animal? I have no issue with killing lambs (I find them delicious), but it seems like a curious take.
No a lamb is not the lamb what you're thinking of, a cute little bouncing and fluffy newborn. I was surprised at the size and bulk of a store lamb when I first saw one down at the yards
I've friends AJ who are planning to change their whole flock over to Wiltshire's from Romney's to avoid shearing and dagging. The bloke estimated that around 60% of his actual work was a direct result of having wooly sheep. Given that shearing and dagging is costing him tens of thousands each year, he concluded he is losing time and money having Romney's that he could spend elsewhere diversifying his property. Made a lot of sense to me. And if he ever wanted to get back into wooly sheep, Romney's are everywhere in NZ.
All sheep farmers I'm talking to want to move to Wiltshires. ( Wiltshires shed their wool) The wool industry has been bad for so long, but this looks terminal. I talked to someone in the industry and he said wool is piled up and without reserve prices it would be below $1 a kg.
It's always been a changing world, wool is such a fantastic product I thought it would have recovered. Cheap oil won't be helping.
I do love wool also. Can't beat a swanndri for winter. It'd be a real shame to see it off the shelves forever.
That’s the point...you can beat a Wool swandri. The new synthetics are warmer, lighter, tougher and don’t hold water. I gave up on wool in the outdoors years ago. Wool doesn’t come close (no not even ice breaker).
I've still got one of my old man's swanndris thats about 25 years old. No holes, fire resistant, breathable but heavy. I've also got a Swazi Tahr jacket. Absolute junk apart from being lightweight. Goretex is the only synthetic material that beats all others but you pay for it.
Then I guess the market and every other bugga I bash the bush with have it wrong eh!
The market loves cheap 3rd world labour made gear. I've owned a few brands and none have lasted more than 2 years with light use. When i worked the farm, it was a new jacket every season. Kaiwaka is the only jacket i've personally owned that was 100% waterproof and it lasted 4-5 years (old man had it after I left) before it developed a rip on the elbow.
Yep, Kaiwaka is good stuff.
I've yet to walk on a synthetic carpet that can beat a wool carpet for warmth underfoot. Synthetics feel nice but they melt, are more flammable than wool, and feel cold underfoot
Synthetics can in no universe beat wool on day two and beyond. They grow bacteria at a ridiculous rate while Ill happily were wool for ages, and they get worse as they get older. Wool socks are also unbeatable.
No way Ill give up wool in the outdoors. I do use synthetics its just not a go to.
Wool of course will only be of value when we price in the true cost of unsustainable fossils. By then there will be few sheep and even less wool producing flocks.
Surely there's a point when it can at least compete with that horrible glass wool product, it's such a superior and more friendly insulation.( There is no way that dude dressed in pink in the ad is actually wearing that shite).
Daughter and son-in-law recently finished shearing and were told to just stack it in a corner.
market must be flooded, im hearing of lots of farmers doing the same.
Insulation products is a very good example of where local regulations/tariffs ought to be written to favour our wool product. It's just nuts that our markets are saturated with styrofoam and glass. Nuts.
That is an absolute crying shame as we become more and more aware of the utterly detrimental effects manmade fibres are having around the world. It would be easy for wool to re-emerge, but if it did the problem would be, nowhere near enough of it
Working in a bank overseas dept early 60’s was astonished as how much of the wool clip, the lower grades, was being shipped to Rotterdam, thru B/L to Poland. Woolies told us being used for carpet yarn.Not long ago watched a program of an abandoned Russian HQ in East Germany. Loads of discarded Russian uniforms. All of the finest NZ wool. Those were the days.
I still wear my father's peacoat from the WWII Merchant Marine and have it listed in my will for a marine scientist niece.
Likewise, It is such a great natural product. Our NZ woollen mills and garment industries were an order of magnitude better than any of the Chinese crap we are now offered. I have a Tamahine jersey that must be 20 year old but is as good as the day it was bought. They don't seem to be able to spin the wool properly and/or include too much low quality short strand wool which just pills up up after a couple of washes.
Did you finally get some rain down there Andrew?
yes, just poured 23 mm out of gauge but last week we had 4 huge frosts in a row, I'd would say minus 5-6 degrees. They knocked my grass, was looking good before the frosts with warm soil temps.
The westerly facing hills are still brown but most of us are green now.
Ouch, hopefully that hasn't chilled things off too much.
It must have been nice emptying the gauge out!
Hopefully you're getting some more warmish rain out of this loitering low.
"And in Europe, there is mounting evidence that liquidity injections are not having the impact authorities expect. Fearful households are saving as hard as ever and stimulus cash does not have the multiplier impact intended.".
Wow I am so surprised Central Bank intervention is not having the effect they want. It's only been happening for how long now? Over a decade of distortions?
Like I have been saying for years now.
The definition of insanity is to keep on doing the same thing and expect a different result.
It won't be long now before they are pumping in money to stoke up the next asset bubble, which will lead to the next crash, and so on. How many times have we been round this merry go round?
""Mr Muller said he would stick to National's promise to raise the age of superannuation up to 67, starting in 2037. ""
https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/todd-muller-commits-nationa…
Other than being maybe 17 years too late it is a policy chosen for realism not wishful thinking. Are NZ voters mature enough for realism?
they will have to soften us up first, realism is good at that.
It's such a cynical policy... this policy will not affect the majority of nationals voting base.
Well, duh..
Why else would they propose it.
Once the last boomer is expired it will go up the next day - not a day before he promised..
Such BS eh...central banks doing everything to keep asset prices high for boomer retirement and governments setting policies like this so that boomers get super at 65...then screw everyone else. I thought it was the millennial's who were the self-interested generation?
Did you know that the pension age was 60 and was increased in the 90s just in time for retiring boomers to work another 5 years. Your theories stink.
I remember when it went up and at the time I thought that stinks but for me its a long way off so ok nothing to worry about, now im thinking I wish they had left it. I guess perspective changes as you get closer to your turn
Yes aware of that. Were boomers planning on retiring at 40? I.e. born 1950, retire in the '90's? That doesn't make any sense.
I think it was raised more to reflect that people were living longer and longer (which is no longer the case...).
But yes, my theories stink. You might have to get used to the smell, sorry (not!)
Just think... you stink and you're revolting. 1945 plus 60 equals 2005. Back to school you go
Those born in 1945 would actually be part of the silent generation, not boomer generation.
This is school for you - welcome!
Daughters first election and she likes Muller. I dont know what she will think of this pension policy, chances are that all political parties will adopt a similar stance in time. Labour has already proposed to raise the pension age
‘She likes Muller’ that sums up the average voter! No policy changes, same party, same people same visions. Yet National are now different?
I’m waiting for some policy change....immigration, foreign ownership, enviro to name a few.
Strong self assured citizens independent of the state prepared to aim high and work hard. If we had more of those qualities we would not need high immigration nor foreign funds
So you're for the foreign buyer ban that National wouldn't bring in?
Can you speak english or get your esol tutor to do an edit
Whew finally. I'm not getting into that with you. Obviously you do and that's good.
Indeed, worked for Ardern in 2017 - 10% swing pre-election as votes surging from MeTu-tainted greens to shiny new not-Little Labour Leader with exactly the same policies. Voters are typically disinterested, uneducated and superficial everywhere in the western world.
Adults of that age often vote along family lines. It's not until they get some actual life experience and develop critical thinking that they will vote independently of their parents.
She voted as a under ten year old. I asked her which party before I voted... I wanted to give her a strong interest and understanding of politics and it worked.
I think if you're going to raise the super age then do it now. 2037 was just to protect the interests of one generation over others.
Bit like the 50 billion dollar tab that the next gen will pick up
Yes there is a whole lot of short term thinking to avoid pain right now....but it means were just going to suffer a whole lot of pain over the longer term now...
We need a recession/depression to clear out the zombie companies and bad debts and reset house prices. Without that, our economy is going to be stagnant, for years or even decades.
I was optimistic and thought this may be the catalyst for a proper reset in every sense of the word. But alas, as each week passes its looking less and less likely we will have anything but BAU.
History would suggest that current central bank policies will result in some form of revolution in time. You can't benefit one part of society and ignore the other as when that other gets big enough it either votes for changes or violently revolts for it.
Not putting up the pension age will increase the bill even more. That's the point - it's just good sense, and JA panicked when asked it and made JK's stupid promise to resign before putting it up. Reminds me of the story of Jephthah's daughter - Jephthah vowed to sacrifice the first thing he saw when he got home, but it ended up being his only child. He did it anyway despite the fact that God forbade human sacrifice. Moral of the story - don't make stupid promises, then admit you were wrong and beg forgiveness from the electorate.
Absolutely. But it's political suicide. Would need to be a strong agreement between major parties to make it happen.
And what do we do for physical workers, tradies etc, who simply can't do the job anymore?
Physical labout: a problem but a problem that starts at 50 not 65.
.
'The world increases their dollar buffer (dollar shortage) at the same time they reduce their RMB buffer (inside China, booked as a “capital outflow”). In this case CNY DOWN = BAD does apply; just not specifically because of CNY falling in terms of volatility or “devaluation”, rather because of what’s motivating the currency to move in the first place.
Dollar shortage, or the concept even of dollar destruction. This isn’t the same as de-dollarization.
In the “capital outflow” story(ies) no matter how you originate them, money has left China, sure, but then it has to go somewhere else. In the eurodollar story, dollars disappear from China (or anywhere else) because banks shrink their liability structure in response to, as well as the cause of, the facts behind CNY DOWN.
The dollars are destroyed, in essence. It’s not an outflow so much as a negative redistribution.'
https://alhambrapartners.com/2019/07/10/dollar-destruction-potential-fr…
'Right on cue, the Chinese have restarted “devaluation.” Because no one ever learns, and because trade wars are a conveniently timed distraction, CNY’s dramatic plunge below 7.00 is being written up as currency manipulation. It is manipulation, just nothing like what’s being described. PBOC Governor Yi Gang is a passenger here, not the man pulling the levers behind the scenes.'
https://alhambrapartners.com/2019/08/05/cny-7-the-gears-behind-the-cloc…
Cant help but notice that the Genesis Energy share price has recovered a lot , , still below average, but now just 10 cents below its price on 16 December 2019 .
Whats driving this ?
Here's a problem in 8 steps
China launches a stimulus
There is more Yuan money around
Yuan devalues or loses value against the $ due to the watering- down effect ( with some help from the CCP planners )
Clever or wealthy people convert their (often borrowed ) Yuan to $ as soon as possible
Now they need to put it somewhere
Like Australia , New Zealand , the US or Canada or other safe haven
It makes its way into property
Inflates property prices
Repeat ............
So how should we deal with this money which will wash up here in due course ?
Allow it to be invested here in cash at very low rates and let it neuter the RBNZ policy ("Hot money "can be very destabilising if it reverses) ?
Allow it to go into new builds only ( like Australia ) thus improving housing rental stock ?
Tax foreign capital when it makes its way into our markets ( NZX or property) ?
Reject it outright ?
Force the hot money money into a long -term investment like a Government Infrastructure Bond, and use the money for roads , rail , a second airport , a new port at Marsden with an upgraded road to Auckland , a new Rugby stadium , mass housing for the homeless ?
"Yuan devalues or loses value against the $ due to the watering- down effect"
FYI, Yuan is not a free floating currency (i.e not determined by free market forces). The PBOC has a fixed exchange rate policy and sets the exchange rate. China has a closed capital account, and China's Central bank (PBOC) sets the FX rate - I think a lot is dependent upon the level of FX reserves in China, as well as maintaining export competitiveness.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/02/25/us-wants-china-adjus…
Prior to 1985, NZ had a fixed exchange rate.
https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/-/media/ReserveBank/Files/Publications/Seminar…
Correct , the Yuan is fixed , but firstly its rigged
And , secondly its clear when someone from China buys a home in my street in Greenhithe for circa $2,0 million and owns a Bently or a Lexus 4x4 , does not appear to work, and does not have a mortgage registered over the Title deed , there are ways around Chinese currency restrictions..............and thats a mystery to you and I
"there are ways around Chinese currency restrictions..............and thats a mystery to you and I"
Have heard some stories ...
There's bound to be loopholes in any regulations, no matter how thoroughly they are worded. And I'm sure when someone in China is high up on the food chain, many of the rules don't apply to them.
Chinese used to have (may have tightened up) an allowance of money they were allowed to send out of the country. So typically would just get extended family and friend groups (or even strangers) to pool together for a big purchase. But there are a lot of other techniques - like deliberately losing money in a foreign business deal where counter-party sends lost money to you through back channels. Or (for a long time) 'losing' money in Macau casinos. Etc, etc. So many tricksy schemes that PRC can not stop the flow.
Boatman, China still has its capital flight restrictions in place and is unlikely to ease them anytime soon so it can control its FX reserves. That's why Australia's and Canada's property market isn't doing that well at the moment (Even with the big drops in mortgage rates for the Ozzies).
News Domain: Chinese buyers abandon Australian property, replaced by US investors: FIRB report. https://www.domain.com.au/news/chinese-buyers-abandon-australias-proper…
* Sydney has turned into a renter's market amid the pandemic with falling prices and rising vacancies. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-23/coronavirus-sees-sydney-turn-int…
* Better dwelling: Canadian Real Estate Sales See Worst April Since 1984, Montreal and Toronto Lead Lower.
https://betterdwelling.com/canadian-real-estate-sales-see-worst-april-s…
Well looking at the extremely wealthy young -ish looking , not-working Chinese folk in very expensive homes in my street in Greenhithe, with kids at Kristen and Pinehurst ...........those capital flight restrictions are clearly not working either .
Its a mystery to me how they do it
The Crazy Rich Asians trilogy is a work of fiction but if a tenth of it is accurate is an eye opener. There's crazy rich, then there's China rich, which is a whole other level
"There's crazy rich, then there's China rich, which is a whole other level"
Know some people who have worked for some of them. Some still do.
Know some rich people in Hong Kong - mainly old money. In my experience, families of old money are very different to families with new money.
There are some crazy rich Russians also. Was visiting Moscow in 2007 - just crazy, when hearing the amount of wealth that the children of billionaires were spending. Mainly children of new money patriarchs. Still a lot of wealth there now despite the recent drop in oil price I suspect.
40-60 year old educated Chinese who moved to big cities in 1990's-2000's and bought flats saw incredible capital gains (up to 100x) that let them buy 2nd, 3rd etc flats, many of which are now worth millions each. Like NZ boomer wealth on steroids, 10's of millions of Chinese just happened to be in the right place at the right time and they almost inevitably became super wealthy as a result.
You find a "friend" with a Company that buys foreign goods and is approved to transact internationally. Next purchase they do, add your money in (fake invoicing if necessary) and presto chango money now overseas. Company employee/owner clips the ticket on the way through.
Here's a more interesting approach (since shut down now) - https://www.scmp.com/business/banking-finance/article/1930600/us60m-hk-…
https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/2167731/desperate-ch…
In the US Chinese flood the country with fentanyl. They buy fentanyl from factories in Wuhan through brokers who ship it to Mexico. The cartels move it across the border, sell it and the US broker gets the cash. Like magic the Chinese currency is now US dollars inside the USA.
Another common way is to head to Macau! Put all the RMB you want to transfer into chips in a casino in Macau, play a few hands of baccarat, bet small, then hand in all your "winnings". They ask you: How would you like to redeem those chips? In a US $ bank account? No problem!
Air New Zealand says cost cuts including a 30 per cent reduction in its labour force - or 4000 staff
Any idea when we get an update on unemployment stats here in NZ?
August. We don't have weekly job stats like some countries (including the US)
Thanks.
Statistics NZ – Data sources – FYI - May 17, 2020
Two data sources will be used in the production of the monthly filled jobs and gross earnings indicators series, which begin April 1999:
•From April 1999 to April 2019, EMS data will be used. All New Zealand employers are required to report PAYE (pay as you earn) data for their employees to Inland Revenue. Prior to April 2019, the PAYE data was reported on a monthly basis as the EMS.
•From May 2019 onwards, payday filing data will be used. Since 1 April 2019, all New Zealand employers paying more than $50,000 PAYE and Employer Superannuation Contribution tax (ESCT) per year are required to electronically file payroll information, known as payday filing. Larger employers need to file within two working days of each payday, however, smaller employers can choose to file by paper and have slightly longer timeframes. This data is provided daily to Stats NZ by Inland Revenue.
Payday filing is timelier and has more information about employees’ pay period, making it a more flexible and useful data source than the EMS, and enables the indicators to be produced sooner than using EMS data.
https://www.stats.govt.nz/methods/about-new-employment-indicator-series
NB: This data is provided daily to Stats NZ by Inland Revenue.
Michael Reddell May 18, 2020
yes, they have started publishing a new monthly employment index. The April result will be very interesting, and should be published next week
Firstly in Australia, their prime minister is expected to warn today that the road ahead will be very difficult, and success is not assured.
Australia unnecessarily exposed itself to Beijing's fury, but relying on the US now is risky
And in Europe, there is mounting evidence that liquidity injections are not having the impact authorities expected.
What the Japanese had done wrong, in the minds of US policymakers in June 2003, was that they hadn’t sold the program the right way or with enough conviction. Not that they had used inert bank reserves because they couldn’t define money or what forms the banking system used in practice, but, expectations policy, Japanese officials didn’t openly display enough confidence so as to build up credibility about the “money” they were “injecting.”
If you need to sell money, it’s not.
“MR. KOHN. We don’t need to be very specific; but before we begin to use nontraditional techniques, I think we need to talk about them publicly and create a sense of continuity and confidence in our policymaking, which I believe was absent in Japan.”
If money is money, there’s no need to make the public confident about it. It just is. And banks know it is, so they do something with it. But that’s not what happened in Japan, as Don Kohn next pointed out: Read more
Looking at the spending patterns of Europeans that might make sense, in 2008/9 many EU consumers where shocked badly by that crisis. I suspect that the way that was handled will have ramifications for a generation. However, much as to say, I don't believe it's inevitable that direct stimulus will be saved in countries that have protected people better from financial shock.
In the UK the bill is bigger than that for WW2.
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/x-days-to-save-the-economy#
At the start of the boomer period ....
When the Labour government left office in 1949 the top income tax rate was 76.5%.
http://www.teara.govt.nz/en/taxes/4
Still holding a grudge?
Air NZ looking to cut up to 4000 jobs. Big cuts also around the corner at Auckland Council.
This is getting horribly ugly.
"Big cuts also around the corner at Auckland Council."
Are they contractors or permanant Council employees? Heard that the Auckland Council was cutting contractors. Haven't heard anything about permanent council employees as yet.
"Auckland Council is cutting up to 1100 jobs immediately for staff it has been employing as temps, or on contracts, as it prepares for an unprecedented budget hit due to Covid-19." - https://www.stuff.co.nz/auckland/120879172/coronavirus-auckland-council…
I don't see how this works out well...all roads lead to Rome (our banks) when it comes to loss in income either via rents to landlords to mortgages, or directly to residential mortgages themselves for owners.
Guess it will come to light in time.
I am getting more pessimistic as each week passes.
I have several friends at council who are worried.
The first step was cutting contractors, now they are reviewing permanent staff, apparently they are being gentle with messaging but the word from my mate is jobs will be cut, potentially quite a lot (maybe circa 500-1000).
A pity that it is being done in bad times rather than good.
What I don't understand is why a govt. body needs to wait until an economic shock to address their spiraling staffing numbers.
"What I don't understand is why a govt. body needs to wait until an economic shock to address their spiraling staffing numbers."
Because their cash income is reducing. Same as with households (what would you do if you had your income cut or lost your job?). When less cash is coming in through the door, people are forced to adapt to the new income level and cut expenses. Potential areas for a fall in cash income sources for Auckland Council:
1) dividend from Auckland Ports
2) dividend from Auckland International Airport (they just did a share offering, unclear if Auckland Council subscribed)
3) other? construction related fees?
When cash is plentiful, people become more free spending, and there is a lot of scope for excess and waste.
Take a look at your own household situation, when the economy is good - perhaps you buy coffees more frequently, dine out more frequently, take overseas holidays, buy that large TV, subscribe to Sky, etc. When the income is reduced, then people are forced to revisit their costs and cut discretionary spending.
Parkinson's Law "work expands so as to fill the time available for its completion" or more generally: "The demand upon a resource tends to expand to match the supply of the resource (If the price is zero)." IE Govt bureaucracies always tend to grow to absorb the available funding - (that costs them nothing). It takes a lot of top down push back to prevent bureaucracies expanding needlessly. Left are ideologically ill-suited/incapable of that so inevitably ends up needing hard times or right leaning politicians to do so (which never happens in local govt captured by the fringing left)
The joke is that Councils do what private cost-offloaders have offloaded. They also do something called supplying social services and - to the surprise of some idologically-challenged folk hereabouts, no doubt - those can't always be 'valued' in monetary terms. Not surprising, we have consistently failed to value the planet using money; social needs are just the same.
The joke is that both ways, the debt is becoming increasingly unbelievable. Public or private, it's a demand on resources and energy. Either way or combined, there ain't enough left. So the debt will not be honoured, and just what respect money (and it's priests/parishioners) retains post that event, is an interesting question.
Your left/right stuff is so little, so minor, so self, as to be an irrelevance. Your 'left' are actually just folk who 'care' more, your 'right' are pretty much those who don't. As a social observation, it has some validity. As an approach to a sustainable future, neither do. The only validity is when 'care' addresses future generations and/or the biosphere. That should be Green territory, but currently they're MIA.
PDK how would you have the Government fund their spending?
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