Net migration sextuples in year to November; biggest influx in 5 years since 2004 (Update 2)

New Zealand is set to gain more than net 20,000 permanent and long term (PLT) migrants during 2009 after a net 2,501 PLT migrants arrived during November. This brought the total net arrivals during the calendar year to the end of November to 19,882. Departures fell 27% in November from a year ago, while arrivals fell 2.4%. (Update 1 includes charts, Update 2 includes economist reaction.) The year to November 2009 had the highest permanent and long-term net migration since the year to July 2004, figures released by Statistics New Zealand show. There were 20,021 net arrivals in the 12 months to November, up from 3,569 in the year to November 2008. The Reserve Bank and housing forecasters watch net migration figures closely for an indication of housing demand given previous influxes have helped drive up house prices through 2002, 2003 and 2004, although previous influxes were driven more by arrivals rather than a lack of departures. Seasonally adjusted figures show net PLT migration dropped off slightly to 1,780 in November from 2,140 October. This was up from net departures of 10 (seasonally adjusted) in November 2008. Here is the release from Stats NZ:

New Zealand's annual net permanent and long-term (PLT) migration balance was a gain of 20,000 in the November 2009 year, up from 3,600 in the November 2008 year, Statistics New Zealand said today. The latest annual net migration total is the highest since the July 2004 year (20,600). The increase in net migration was driven largely by 17,300 fewer PLT departures compared with the previous year. PLT departures decreased by 1,600 in the November 2009 month, including 1,500 fewer departures to Australia and 200 fewer departures to the United Kingdom. Since February 2009, PLT departures have fallen by at least 1,000 each month compared with the same month of the previous year. PLT arrivals decreased by 200 in November 2009. On a seasonally adjusted basis, PLT arrivals exceeded PLT departures by 1,800 in the November 2009 month, similar to levels experienced since February 2009. Visitor arrivals in November 2009 (219,900) were up 600 (less than 1 percent) compared with November 2008. Arrivals from Australia (up 7,300 or 9 percent) were again the major contributor, with November 2009 being the eighth consecutive month of large increases from across the Tasman. There were drops in visitors from the United States (down 2,400) and Canada (down 900). Visitor arrivals in the November 2009 year (2.439 million) were down 14,300 (1 percent) from the November 2008 year. New Zealand residents departed on 158,400 short-term overseas trips in November 2009, up 3,200 (2 percent) from November 2008. There were more trips to India (up 1,100 or 22 percent), and the United States (up 1,000 or 19 percent), but fewer trips to the Cook Islands (down 800 or 18 percent) and Australia (down 800 or 1 percent). For the November 2009 year, short-term departures of New Zealand residents numbered 1.921 million, down 58,400 (3 percent) from the previous November year.

ASB economist Jane Turner said ASB expects net migration to drop off in 2010, which should help alleviate some of the pressures on the housing market:

The lift in net migration over the past year has helped underpin domestic demand over the past 6 months. The low rate of departures has put pressure on the NZ housing market, as a low rate of home sale listings have caused a shortage of supply. While the current state of the housing market is expected to be temporary, it has resulted in a much stronger than expected lift in house prices. We expect net migration inflows to ease off gradually over 2010, which should help alleviate some of the pressures on the housing market. Nonetheless, this current migration/housing dynamic is adding to stronger than expected inflation pressures and testing the patience of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand.