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Property cycle strengthens in July as 'days to sell' falls, Mike Pero/Infometrics say
A housing market measure based on Real Estate Institute of New Zealand (REINZ) figures shows New Zealand's housing market continued to rebound in July as the REINZ's 'days to sell' figure fell from June.
The Mike Pero Mortgages-Infometrics Property Cycle Indicator (PCI) rose to 5.95 in July from 3.98 in June. The PCI is based on changes in the amount of houses sold, changes in price and the time taken for houses to sell.
"The biggest change in the market is the much shorter time houses are taking to sell," Mike Pero Mortgages CEO Shaun Riley said. The REINZ's days to sell figure was 37 in July from 41 in June and 58 in July 2008. The median sale price remained at NZ$340,000, while the number of house sale fell slightly over the month to 6,014.
"Auckland and Wellington are showing strong signs of recovery with regional indicators of positive 6.94 and 6.59 respectively. All other North Island regions also recorded a positive PCI for July," Riley said.
"Canterbury/Westland is leading the recovery in the South Island with a regional PCI of 4.51 in July," he said.
"The only areas with a negative PCI in July were Central Otago Lakes and Southland, at negative 1.20 and negative 1.56 respectively."
The PCI runs from negative 10 to positive 10. A score of positive 10 represents a strong upturn in the property sector, while negative 10 represents a strong downturn.
"Lower sales volumes are usually the first indicator that a market upturn is coming to an end, followed by properties taking longer to sell. House prices are usually the last variable to change direction. House prices may still be rising, even though the Property Cycle Index is negative and showing a downturn."
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It would be awesome if
It would be awesome if someone could gather all these 'indicators', and track them together in a single interactive graph. Then we could get a much better idea of the real significance.
What about the endless "re-listing"
What about the endless "re-listing" that goes on? Take some new photos and reset the listing date. Bunkum and clutching at straws! Still its a diversion from the fact that volume
fell and median price did not rise.
"Steve Koerber of Barfoot &
"Steve Koerber of Barfoot & Thompson has pointed the finger at vendors and other real estate agents, saying there is a lack of information about houses" haaahaaha. Oh dear oh dear talk about the pot and the kettle. Now it seems the immigrants are being sold lemons, leaky rotting ones at that! As for this days to sell effluent. If you believe it's a valid statistic then you believe in little green men. Here comes the rate rises all you silly fools, you rushed into the banking web and now the screw will turn.
Too right Wally...as I have
Too right Wally...as I have quoted before "the price of a house is a matter of opinion but
THE DEBT IS REAL" (Mervyn King BOE)
prosperopink Says: "What about the
prosperopink Says:
"What about the endless "re-listing" that goes on? Take some new photos and reset the listing date"
Yep
Well most dont even bother to do that...
My bet is 15% five
My bet is 15% five year fixed by oct 2010, and man that will kick the crap out of the retail trade, shove unemployment through 10%, knock the residential property prices off the ladder, slash a hole in the govt revenue bucket, No Wally, leave it alone.......mmmm along comes Mr Market just in time to teach Bill what it means to mess with the BOSS.
You don't suppose that the
You don't suppose that the REINZ have a vested interest in cobbling together the best looking ( from their point of view ) set of figures , to prove that the property " boom " is still going..........hmmmmmmmm ? Do I recall Clayton Cosgrove refusing to allow these guys to police real estate agents , after a few shonky " insider " deals ripped clients off . And Cossy set up a Gumnut quango to watch over them ( with the same level of success that minister of commerce , Lianne Dalziel , over-saw the finance industry melt-down ) .
you are dreaming if you
you are dreaming if you think int rates are going to 10% any time soon...
both the fed and RBNZ are determined to follow the lower for longer road, and the FED will keep printing to ensure it happens, they dont care if the usd weakons, they didnt care when kiwi was at 80 either!
kiwis are buying laqc (tax rebate investments) most buy these with 10-15 year plans to help pay off their own homes quicker, hard to see property lower then it is now in 15 years time.... (alternatively people are willing to take that risk so they can pay a 25y mortgage off in 15 years....) even if property is less in 15 years time, they have 10 years of no mortgage to compensate, just keep renting the rental and retire with rents.....
unless they exclude res prop from laqc nothing will chaage...
cgt will not help, its the tax arbitrage people are buying..
treasury has even written a how to guide... how to rort the system and claim WFF.
its a joke and will all end in tears
is anyone else a bit
is anyone else a bit cynical about Mike Pero and Infometrics teeming up?
I'm not saying that being aligned with a mortgage company is fatal to one's credibility, but I do wonder if Infometric's credibility as an independant expert economics company is tarnished by this sort of association
I guess we have to give them the benefit of the doubt, and hope that their recent proclamation of 24% increases in house prices is not (either consciously or unconsicously) influenced by being tied to Mike Pero
The word recovery sounds like
The word recovery sounds like something is getting better, but what is better about even higher house prices than now. I think what we really need is not recovery but a good dose of housing flu and I mean a good dose, not that little runny nose and a cough we have had until now. Bernard is right all it will do is drive all the young and talented off shore and they won't be back in a hurry.
Are we blind or just pretending to be, you know like the proverbial head in the sand. Perhaps we should no longer be called kiwis, rather Ostriches.
Wally, And floating rates will
Wally,
And floating rates will be?
I suspect that Interested is
I suspect that Interested is right. If you are right about the Treasury in your last sentence then we are doomed. Makes you wonder who is in whose pocket .
@ Wally - as per
@ Wally - as per Captain Crab would be good to hear your thoughts on floating rates? Where do you see them by Oct-2010?
On the teaming up of
On the teaming up of infometrics and mike pero, this from states bubble:
"(in 2005)The chief economist of Freddie Mac and the director of Harvard University's Joint Center for Housing Studies (JCHS) denied the existence of a national housing bubble and expressed doubt that any significant decline in home prices was possible, citing consistently rising prices since the Great Depression, an anticipated increased demand from the Baby Boom generation, and healthy levels of employment.[41][42][43] However, some have suggested that the funding received by JCHS from the real estate industry may have affected their judgment"
Prices now down over 35% in the states
Craig, That is brilliant !
Craig,
That is brilliant !
Floating rates! Flying rates. Sinking
Floating rates! Flying rates. Sinking rates and Swimming rates. All are set to head into record territory. How can they do otherwise when the demand for credit exceeds supply. Bernanke can print, Bollard can't. Little Kiwi would be tossed under a steam roller by Mr Market if that started. 15% by oct is not a big move. Check back to the speed they rose in the 70s. Scary stuff. You can bet the fools in the govt will be spinning like crazy, churning out garbage on how the higher rates will be temp only and borrowers should not panic. Very similar crap to that dished out to Titanic passengers by the fool who steamed full tit into an iceberg. They will rise and they will stay high for at least ten years because Obama has to borrow 9 trillion and Brown has to borrow.......oh hell what's the point.....