By Roger J Kerr

One potential negative influence that will continue to hang over the Kiwi dollar is Standard & Poor's downgrading the NZ Government sovereign credit rating if they are not satisfied that the May budget contains the annual deficits and increase in Government debt.

The credit rating is already on negative watch which entails a 30% chance of a downgrade.

The Minister of Finance, Hon Bill English, is very aware of the risks of a downgrade and therefore the Government is working hard to deliver the numbers to satisfy S&P.

A downgrade would send the NZ dollar lower if it happened, but at this stage the probability is more on the side of the AAA rating being maintained.

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* Roger J Kerr runs Asia Pacific Risk Management. He specialises in fixed interest securities and is a commentator on economics and markets. More commentary and useful information on fixed interest investing can be found at rogeradvice.com