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Bollard hits back at criticism by BNZ's Toplis

Posted in News

Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Governor Alan Bollard this morning defended the credibility of the RBNZ, hitting back at criticism from the BNZ's Stephen Toplis' earlier interview on Radio New Zealand Morning Report. "Like it or not, the RBNZ is one of the most credible [central banks] in the world in terms of inflation fighting," Bollard said. "You just heard Stephen Toplis protesting a bit much, he got his forecasts wrong," he said.

Earlier, Toplis had criticised the central bank for not being transparent enough and for creating an environment of uncertainty with its announcement of a 50 basis point cut in the OCR instead of 25 basis points, as most economists were expecting. "There's this fear that [the announcement is] going to generate this psychology now that rates are going to be slashed, they're going to keep being slashed, and the world's going to be saved. That's probably not the environment that we need right now," Toplis said. "[The central bank] should be fully transparent, everyone should know where they're going. No surprises," he said. In response, Bollard said that the markets "shouldn't forget that central banks have got more than just a 25 basis point cut or increase in their tool kit. Of course they've got 50 basis points. We've seen the Federal Reserve doing that aggressively over the last year." "We got criticised for only pushing up rates by 25 basis points on the upswing, so it's a little bit ironic to get criticised for occasionally doing a 50 on the downswing," Bollard said. Toplis critisised the central bank for creating confusion and for having inconsistencies in its latest monetary policy statement. "One of the comments that was made by the central bank yesterday in its report was that they were lowering rates by 50 basis points and doing it under the assumption that the currency wouldn't fall aggressively. Now I don't know anybody who would have made the judgement that the currency wouldn't fall aggressively on such a suprise move, in fact, that's what it's done, so again we're back into that period of uncertainty as to has it dropped too much?" Following the Toplis interview interview on Morning Report, Bollard said that future cuts would be limited by how much the New Zealand dollar falls. "We are limited on how much we can cut if the New Zealand dollar falls very far because that does bring in inflation and it should be absolutely clear to everybody from our announcement yesterday we are still focussing and targeting medium-term inflation," Bollard said. When asked whether he thought the RBNZ is moving away from its core focus of restricting inflation, Toplis answered that he didn't think so. "What has concerned us, and continues to concern us is the ability for the bank to confidently push inflation to the mid-point of its target," Toplis said. "When you take away the emissions trading system impact, the bank only gets inflation marginally above the mid-point of its target band during the worst recession we've seen in 20 years," he said. "So if you can only get it to the mid-point in the worst recession in 20 years, what does that mean for the rest of the economic cycle?" In his criticism of the central bank's monetary policy report, Toplis argued: "For example, if you really believe the economy's unstuck, and you really believe that you need to lower interest rates, wouldn't you lower your entire interest rate track? Whereas, in fact, the Reserve Bank's published interest rate track at the end point is higher than where it used to be. It's 50 basis points higher, not lower," Toplis said. On the RBNZ's ability to communitate monetary policy intentions, Toplis said "it's all about casting impressions on where you're going in the medium-term." Bollard replied that the markets did know generally what direction things were going in. "They did, and they do know the direction," he said.

We welcome your help to improve our coverage of this issue. Any examples or experiences to relate? Any links to other news, data or research to shed more light on this? Any insight or views on what might happen next or what should happen next? Any errors to correct?

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14 Comments

“Like it or not, the

"Like it or not, the RBNZ is one of the most credible [central banks] in the world in terms of inflation fighting," Bollard said.

Cue the Tui advert.

Somewhat unedifying for the RBNZ chief to get into a spat with a local bank economist.

Clearly Toplis's comments hit a sore spot.

Toplis is 100% right. Why

Toplis is 100% right. Why don't a few other economists speak out about the surpising 0.5% cut?

Bollard hardly seems to be fighting inflation at the moment......just trying to make money from Reserve Bank foreign currency plays.

Toplis is way off the

Toplis is way off the mark. What he is effectively saying is that Bollard should today announce what he intends to do at the next MPC meeting, and the one after that, and the one after that....

A key element of central banking is the ability to remain flexible. How many US bank economists sounded off like Toplis after Bernanke cut rates by 325 basis points in the space of 8 months or so? None of them were forecasting cuts of that magnitude.

Toplis has simply misread the signals the RBNZ gave out before yesterday's meeting and is now spitting the dummy.

Talk about sour grapes.

you wrote:— "“You just heard

you wrote:"” ""You just heard Stephen Toplis protesting a bit much, he got his forecasts wrong," he said."

now I must admit I didn'y hear that remark. At all. Was it edited out from broadcast, the above resulting from a transcript perhaps..?

small point.. you may think it a criticism though I assure you my own persistent flaw is the word competence which I abuse with an 'a' for the second 'e' .. but the title and comments spell criticism whereas the text contains at least 3 critisised and/or critisisms..

I do enjoy reading the data and thank you for it.. perhaps the more so for a spot of added thought...

zin You are quite correct.

zin
You are quite correct. Our apologies. Spellchecker snafu. We'll correct.
kind regards
Bernard

Toplis is an amateur and

Toplis is an amateur and should be stood down, professional Economists like myself fully expected it. I published the .5% expected drop on the propertytalk website under the thread OCR drop, on wednesday 10 hours before the Reserve Bank Govenor anounced it.

The idea that the RBNZ

The idea that the RBNZ has taken its eye off inflation is preposterous. As Toplis rightly points out, New Zealand is heading towards the worst recession in 20yrs, and as any undergraduate economics student knows a period of growth below the natural rate of output should help lower inflation, and as the RBNZ rightly indicates inflation will move back to target.

Toplis seems to miss the point of inflation targeting in suggesting that it is a problem that the inflation rate will only move back to the midpoint of the RBNZ's target, this is where it should be regardless of whether the economy is booming or a significant downturn. The proposition that they should allow inflation to dramatically undershoot target during the downturn is something I feel both the RBNZ and many central bankers would argue strongly against.

Not sure I follow you

Not sure I follow you there, Gordon. Surely the idea is that, taken over a couple of years maybe, the overall inflation should be about the midpoint of the band?

Considering how much above the target band inflation is going to run, and for how long, it's surely going to take a heck of a 'medium term' to get the overall inflation within that band if the low point is 2%.....

Why is it OK to overshoot above the band entirely for lengthy periods, but not OK to approach the bottom of the band?

Q/ Collectively, I wonder how

Q/ Collectively, I wonder how much the NZ trading banks got taken to the cleaners for after the 50bp cut?

A/ A shit load.

Wonder how many chief economists were presenting themselves to the board for a caning.

That would explain the trucelence.

Bernard, re the "unheard" remark

Bernard,

re the "unheard" remark from Bollard I mentioned.. that was in the RNZ late night replays - 10-11pm roundup - I'm reliably told - so apols to all concerned though I did not hear it personally..

plenty of scope for cuts.....

plenty of scope for cuts..... use your ears more Toplis....

Expat - none of the banks would have lost money on the day... but they would have made more if their trading teams favoured a steeper curve...

not that trading teams always take the work of their econmist as gospel...

"Why don’t a few other

"Why don't a few other economists speak out about the surpising 0.5% cut?"

Every other economics organisation (except the ANZ economists) did speak out about it - they just didn't get as much air time.

"A key element of central banking is the ability to remain flexible. How many US bank economists sounded off like Toplis after Bernanke cut rates by 325 basis points in the space of 8 months or so?"

But you are only supposed to use this flexibility when inflation expectations are already well anchored - they are not, and so surprising the market is an incredibly risky strategy.

"The idea that the RBNZ has taken its eye off inflation is preposterous. As Toplis rightly points out, New Zealand is heading towards the worst recession in 20yrs, and as any undergraduate economics student knows a period of growth below the natural rate of output should help lower inflation, and as the RBNZ rightly indicates inflation will move back to target."

An undergraduate economics student should also know the difference between a "supply" shock and a "demand" shock. The increase in oil prices and the drought were supply shocks - which will inturn lower the natural rate of output (temporarily).

The RBNZ appears to be reacting to the slowdown in economic activity as if it was solely a demand shock - which would imply falling inflationary pressures. But as a large proportion of the slowdown was off the back of a supply shock, slowing economic growth does not provide us with a drop in inflation.

"not that trading teams always take the work of their econmist as gospel"¦"

Replace always with often I think :)

Matt I'm not sure how

Matt

I'm not sure how you think a supply shock will not translate into a demand shock in other products. esp when the supply shocks are in essentials (food and fuel), strangely two product groups the US leave out of their inflation measurement.

Maybe Bollard was aware of the shocks hitting the US now, and decided a little inflation here, a lower dollar, and less money flowing out is worth it if the G8 (esp US) are facing hyperinflation

Neven

"Gordon UK Says: as any

"Gordon UK Says:

as any undergraduate economics student knows a period of growth below the natural rate of output should help lower inflation, and as the RBNZ rightly indicates inflation will move back to target."

This is funny. We just had a period of irresponsible bank lending into the NZ economy which the RBNZ could have controlled but chose not to. No doubt we are about to get a stagflationary period of similar incompetance or whatever suits the banks rather than the economy.