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one of the side effects of hiking the OCR before the crash was it made lending money to NZs more attractive. If you can borrow money in the US at next to nothing and invest it here to be lent to NZrs........

I am pessimistic . I fear that round 2 of the GFC is on the horizon. Onthe domestic front retailers in Auckland are struggling , as are Estate Agents , used car dealers and builders. Small businesses who extend creit are battling to collect debts and the IRD is owed something like $ 5 billion.

Petrol is up in spite of the strong NZ$, dairy products are up and interst costs are up and increasing . The consumer is punch drunk . We say its due to 'winter' , and people stop spending and have a hibernation mentality , but I have never experinced such a clear, dry sunny winter in Auckland .  

The second issue is Eurozone and its impact on us . When the Eurpoeans realise that the Banking Stress Tests were a whitewash , then all hell will break loose . The serious Euro currency  investors are already ditching the Euro , and its only a matter of time before it becomes a rout . A possible consequnce is that this may actually help the AUD$ and the NZ$ strengthen in  the short term , but the longer term consequnces are dire . Even Germany is likely to have double digit (10%) unemployment by the end of 2010 , thats 6 million Germans or one and a half times our population out of work . We have seen before what angry Germans do at the polls when their  politicians stuff up and its not comforting .

The real threat to us however is when China wobbles due to a fall in demand for its manufactures in Europe, its second biggest market  . This is when it will impact on us and we see a fall in demand from China  . Forutnately , that could be 2 years away , so in the meantime we should all batten down , reduce personal and household debt, and start saving to create a safety net .

So many homes in Las Vegas have been foreclosed upon that banks rarely bother to hang a "For Sale" sign on the front lawn anymore. Instead, visitors identify bank-owned properties by the brown grass and the 8.5 x 11-inch sheet of paper taped to the front door or the garage...  
 
It's hard to find a home bought before 2009 that isn't underwater and very few landlords, when running credit checks, look for foreclosures or short-sales on a tenant's record. Otherwise, a manager couldn't fill a building.  
 
Nevada has a greater concentration of economic misery than any other state...  
 
If present trends go unchecked, Nevada is America's future...  
 
"From a leadership standpoint, knowing that two-thirds of all homes are either upside down or are in foreclosure is one of the most humbling realities we are dealing with..."  
 
The decay in Vegas doesn't stay there: It reverberates throughout the state. "Coming Soon" signs have been pulled down across the city, because nothing is coming soon other than more foreclosures. The Nevada landscape is pockmarked by empty condos and casinos, some of them fully built and sitting there empty, others are shells frozen in time.  

tp://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/07/27/nevadas-economic-misery-m_n_661043.html
 

the wages of sin!!

A personal message for Bernard

May I respectfully suggest that posts like the above by "anon" which are grossly defamatory and  a pack of lies be moderated some what by you.  This site is a great one but posts full of vileness  not to mention disgusting language and out right lies leave you open to legal action by people with thinner skins than mine. I laugh at posts like the above and derive great pleasure at witnessng the stupidity  of cowards who hide behind  anonimity- but not everyone is so inclined. I hope you will take some action for your sake so this excellent site can be used and enjoyed by people who want to debate real issues and play the game.  

Paul L:  thank you for finding that article. I must say I displayed far more modesty than I deserved.

Don't know where the "small office" bit comes from as the reporter obvioulsy didnt see that my staff and I occupy half a floor of a modern building complete with wide views, and 5 offices.

Strange are the ways of reporters.

By the way all you "anons" who abuse the privilage of posting on this site with your vileness - if you would be so kind (and have the courage which i doubt) to put up your real names and addreses here for everyone to see, I might just bother to answer you-  one way or the other.  Olly Newland.

Hi OllyN first let me say that I think what was written about you before was a little bit uncalled for and not really necessary.

Here is one thing for you to think about though ( remember I am not getting at you personal here ). Lots of people back in the 1980s lost a lot of money they could not afford to lose including my parents and some uncles and aunts and my grandma. That was the hardest one hit because she came from the depression days and did not want to put money into shares and things because she didn't trust them but my dad had just died before ( and I can tell you he never ever would have let that be done ) and my parents and her other kids talked her into letting them manage her affairs and things.

My uncles had some hot shot money managers from their work and the family put their trust into them to do right by everyone but the upshot was every one lost just about everything in the 1987 crash. But what was the frustrating thing is that it was little people like my family who got burned and for every director who was punished for what they did there were tons ( the majority!! ) who weren't and who walked off to their big houses in the best parts of town and had all their fancy cars still while the little people like us lost everything and life became quite a bit of a struggle.

So what I am saying is OllyN is that there are a lot of people with some really bad memories of that time and the people who didn't give a stuff about how they had dropped everyone in the poo. A lot of those directors are still rich men today and don't seem to think it was anything to be ashamed of at all while the little people who were most hardest hit ( no big houses or flash cars for them!!! ) are still rebuilding even after all these years.

That is probably why some people will say the kind of stuff like we saw above even if it isn't spot on always such as possibly in your case ( I don't know your background mate ). Just remember that many people didn't dust themself off so easily after the crash as some of your director mates did and that has got to leave some bad feelings ( it certainly did with my family I can tell you ).

By the way if anyone is wondering why there are not many farmers posting to the site here it is because this is the slowest website on the internet for us on dial up accounts ( and heaps of farmers are because of how far we are away from the nearest town)!!! Why does it take soooooo long to load up on the computer??

Dear Dean Malloy. I do appreciate what you say and deeply feel for what your family lost  in the 1987 debacle. Any one who know the facts of my circumstmaces at that time will recall that I too was severly shaken having lost approx $40M by the same unstoppable forces of the times and requring me to start all over again. I had no secret funds, no secret trusts and no rich family to fall back on.  Nor was there the slightest suggestion of any mis deeds on my part. This very fact, more than anything else,  allowed me to dust my self off and re-start again immediately, although much shaken but wiser.

But I did have the knowlege so with the few millions I had left  and the moral support of  loving family and friends ( not to mention a clean billl of financial health and intact integrity ) I started again, so that within a few years I had almost fully recovered and climbed back up again. The only thing I changed was the determination never to borrow from banks again, a fact that I have rigidlly followed ever since. My personal over draft has remained the same since 1987 at $2500  and my business over draft the same at $10,000.

Many of the director mates (as you call them) were men of straw to my astonsihment and disgust when all was revealed  several ended up in jail- and rightly so too. But because of my spotless record before and after I was able to continue and trade and invest unimpeded and free from any restriction ( other than lack of funds on my part) . There is a big difference when you have  only a few millions to start with from scratch again to earn a living as compared to say $50 million or a $100M which makes things so much easier. But you get there and in looking back it was hard but worth it.

The latest debacle is a repeat of 1987 and the crooks who are facing justice today will get what they derserve. If necessary I would not hesitate to pull the rope if hanging was still on the books. Cheers and thank you for your excellent in put. A credit to you.

What a way to start the day!

 http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article21454.html

"The head of the New York FED died in 1928. His successor recognized that a stock market bubble was in process. The FED ceased inflating. Short-term interest rates rose. This popped the stock market bubble in October of 1929.

The government then intervened. It raised tariffs. It began massive deficit spending. It began to interfere with pricing, so as to keep prices and wages high. In short, it adopted Keynesian policies, which made the economy much worse. This has been chronicled in Murray Rothbard's 1963 book, America's Great Depression. It has been steadfastly ignored by Keynesians ever since it was published"

Yeah gidday Olly....have a gork at that article I listed above...what impact do you see from hyper inflation on property in an economy where real incomes are falling and a mountain of debt is pushing the indebted to the wall?

It will fall through the floor now that Bollard has made the foolish move of increasing the OCR!

Wally: It is not possible for me to expand much more on what I wrote as I am not an economist.
All I learnt was from day to day business in good times and bad. There is a wonderful advert on CNBC which says that "the banks are printing more and more money" and shows banks spewing out mountains of paper money. The more money created the less valuable it will be because experience has taught me that nothing is more desirable then the unobtainable . Already we see vast sums being sent on art  with record after record being broken.

linkS http://www.theartwolf.com/10_expensive.htm

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/arts/news/article.cfm?c_id=544&objectid=10624451

      http://www.stuff.co.nz/325584

This is crazy. How can a piece of canvas with the daubing of a demented monkey smeared over it be worth  millions? How can a bit of muck metal be worth so much?  From my untrained view we are slowly but surely entering into a world where things rather than paper will be worth more than endless zeros.  As a Property investor it suits me just fine.  Land is unique because of is limited supply and has been the cause of all wars and horrors since the beginning of time. Logic says that if it's worth fighting for it then it must be worth having- and the more the better.

I disagree with you Olly. In my opinion all asset classes whether they be farming ,residential,commercial or industrial are going to wind down in value over at least the next decade as the debt amongst it all unwinds and is repaid or written off. People also are going to find it harder to get loans from banks and there is also a growing tendency to avoid it as people are now learning the risks of banking everything on property especially when you leverage to get it. Unlike you I think you should be diversified. Now is the time to hold paper in good stocks and also hold some cash but not too much property as the average person does not have the resources to just pay for it and the banks are not lending like they used to.

anon- I think you are wrong- but heaven help us if you are right.

Anon- you have made this post before and repeating it doesn't help your argument. I have checked with my solicitors ( all four of them) and yes business is slower but steady and they do not  see things nearly as black as you do. Maybe you are in a country town or the like and that would make a big difference. I tell the heart beat of the economy by staying close to businesses that are discretionary e.g. many of my tenants . They confirm that it's hard going but  they are still making ends meet. In the last 2 years I have only had one tenant go under and that was because of criminal behaviour. However as I stated before I think Bollard will regret the action of raising interest rates and we may consequently see further declines in business confidence and more mortgagee sales. Bernard H  may yet be proven right in which case we are ALL in the %%##@@,