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Gaynor pins future hope for sharemarket on generations X & Y
Brian Gaynor, Milford Asset Management executive director and long time business commentator, says the local sharemarket is the quietest he has seen it in 35 years and desperately needs a high profile new listing like the Warehouse and a new, young generation of entrepreneurs to bring companies to market.
Gaynor’s comments, in a Double Shot interview with interest.co.nz, come as new figures from sharemarket operator NZX show total trades down 13% in July from July 2009 to 44,021, the total value of July’s trades down 37% to NZ$1.45 billion and the daily average value traded down 34% to just NZ$66 million.
“This is my 35th year (following the New Zealand sharemarket) and I’ve never seen it so quiet,” Gaynor said.
“In terms of activity on the market, IPOs, interesting companies appearing on the horizon looking like they might list on the sharemarket, there just doesn’t seem to be much activity.”
On top of the that, the only action on the merger and acquisition front involves "distressed companies" New Zealand Farming Systems Uruguay and Affco, which are "more of a rescue operation for companies that haven’t performed well rather than anything very positive.”
Gaynor said when he talks to people during weekends very few are interested in the sharemarket, with those aged under 40 seemingly more interested in property. However, one of the reasons a vibrant sharemarket matters for New Zealand is as a source of exciting jobs for young people in new, exciting enterprises. Many of these people, having received taxpayer funded educations, were currently leaving for Australia to chase better job opportunities.
The latest Statistics New Zealand figures show the number of New Zealanders emigrating to Australia rose in the year to June, the second consecutive annualised increase, with a net permanent long-term outflow of 15,900.
IPOs needed
Related Topics
Initial public offerings, Gaynor noted, had always been a major catalyst in encouraging interest in the sharemarket.There was currently a dearth of them with only Ecoya, backed by the 42 Below founders who took about 29% of the candle maker’s shares in a NZ$10 million float, and troubled property group DNZ, which is looking to raise up to NZ$45 million.
There was a reluctance from a lot of people, especially of his generation, to subject themselves to the scrutiny and higher standards of running a public company, Gaynor argued.
“(But) listing is a wonderful thing to do because you have to lift your game and you have to do things a little bit more differently and better than you do as a private company.”
Furthermore listing a company provides both capital to grow a business and a level of exposure to the public that can’t be reached by remaining private.
Although a second-term National led government might look at some partial floats of state owned enterprises, Gaynor suggested the sharemarket was already over reliant on formerly central or local government owned companies such as Telecom, Auckland International Airport and and Vector.
“We’re not creating enough companies ourselves through the private sector. We could get a temporary respite and the market would benefit from a Mighty River Power, Genesis or Meridian being listed,” said Gaynor.
“But really I think the upturn will come if we get more private enterprise created companies listed.”
Discount retailer The Warehouse, founded when Stephen Tindall opened the first store in Takapuna in 1982 and listed on the sharemarket in 1992, was the sort of company the sharemarket was crying out for.
“That was a very small company which when it was listed it was quite interesting,” said Gaynor. "You talked to people in the finance industry and they wouldn’t go near the Warehouse. It was considered to be the bottom of the barrel.”
“(But) within a year of being listed I bet you most of the wives of the businessmen in Remuera and Fendalton were going to the Warehouse and buying products from it.”
Where are the entrepreneurs?
What was needed was a new generation of entrepreneurs like in the early 1980s when the likes of Allan Hawkins and Craig Heatley emerged and listed companies, which encouraged others to follow suit.
Generations X and Y needed to take the lead.
“To me everything now really rests on people between the ages of 25 and 40 and what they’re going to do,” said Gaynor.
New Zealand offered “wonderful” opportunities given there was little competition in most areas. For example, if you’re an investment manager in Australia you face hundreds of competitors whereas New Zealand counterparts face few.
“So in actual fact the country that doesn’t have a lot of activity offers very good opportunities for those who have got energy and ambition.”
The dominant generation of the moment, however, wasn’t interested but things could change very quickly within two or three years if younger people step up to the plate.
“I’m hoping it will (change),” Gaynor added, “but I can’t give you the evidence of it.”
* This article was first published in our email for paid subscribers earlier today.See here for more details and to subscribe.
67 Comments
Well What Mr Gaynor Says is
Well What Mr Gaynor Says is very true,
Even the National Govt has totally failed in its approach to NZ Companies,
and Businesses,as More harm is being done by Commerce commision and
respective ministry doing all that to make sure NZ is closed for Free Mkt,
The following r clear examples:
1. Not allowing Singapore air Buy a stake in Air Newzealand,
2.Not permitting the Dubai associate deal on Auckland airport,
They have all forgotten their promise of an Open Mkt approach,and
ofcourse the Capital markets,when they r deserted by Foreign Funds,
How would a New zealander ever dream of making Money in NZ Markets,
All these Govts and Politicians have a common goal of staying in Power,
and I would guess How many really care for Newzealand citizens and their
well being,
specially very disappointed with this National Govt which Mr John key leads,
I could Understand the Labour govt and their ministers poor understanding,
of World mkts,but certainly not Mr Key,
May god bless all
Don't follow Kris, how does
Don't follow Kris, how does flogging off chunks of our prized companies to foreign interests help our share market? Or is in our interests?
Hi, well it seems then we r
Hi,
well it seems then we r happy selling milk and buying toilet rolls,
World has changed and the need of the hour is Take very bold and
pragmatic decision on attracting funds from overseas to the Capital
markets,
Time to wakeup to reality"
kris
We have attracted plenty of
We have attracted plenty of funds from overseas if you look at how our banks have been sourcing funds from overseas in the last 7 years. What NZ screwed up is misallocation of those funds into mortgages. Those should have been invested into local companies (eg. Air NZ) rather than letting these stakes being bought by overseas investors.
What we need from overseas are skills to run these companies properly, while retaining ownership - not blindly flogging off ownership of assets.
Yep. We should sell the fruit
Yep. We should sell the fruit off the tree, not the tree itself......
Hope your r able to save your
Hope your r able to save your trees,but not with Govt printing notes,and coming
to the rescue,
Remember No Pain NO Gain,
Its high time newzealanders realize you cannot buy assets with Foreign funds,
Look at the State of NZ Farms,and its associates,r writing down values on a
monthly basis,with No assured funding,or Funder asking for more margin,
Eventually its only Overseas interest who would gulp these assets,obviously
with the support of Selfish Newzealanders,( working as front hands.)
Lets face the reality,
I hope now its understood,why our younger Talent leaves NZ for Aussie,
or overseas,
kris
Incentives? Appropriate
Incentives? Appropriate trading and investment environment? Adequate legitimacy and trust? Pluralism? Monetary policy conducive to growing exporters? Culture? Visionary government leadership?
Get real.
Cheers, Les.
www.mea.org.nz
Bernard float interest.co.nz
Bernard float interest.co.nz and I promise I will be in the IPO stagging a few shares ;)
Me too ! What a great loss to
Me too ! What a great loss to us all that the founders of TradeMe sold it lock-stock-and-barrel to those Aussie plonkers , Fairfax ........ That would've been a grand business to encourage Kiwis back into the sharemarket . And now they claim that it's value has doubled , from the $ 700 million they got for it .............. a potential $ 700 million gain , that could've been in Kiwi pockets , not Australian ones .
Why is the NZX so bloody useless ? A double-shot interview with Bernard Doyle !
I guess many people don't
I guess many people don't want to invest in the sharemarket or IPO's and probably with good reason. Look at the failure of Feltex. You have Company Directors who are off scott free, complaining about how they have been persecuted; giving absolutely no compassion to the shareholders who have seen their investment evaporate - on the basis of a shoddy prospectus. Not only this not one expert advisor or underwriter picked up on the current liability error. If KPMG can't done for negligence then you can safely say there is no protection for the shareholder. You can't sue the Directors you can't sue the Auditor. No justice. Fine, just don't expect people to invest in the sharemarket.
It seems to be more of a
It seems to be more of a ripoff market than a share market. And now the ripoff merchants wonder why there is nobody left to rip!
Look at ALF and their latest, default investors!
no thanks!
If my kids are anything to go
If my kids are anything to go by I wouldn't be holding my breath if I was Brian Gaynor.
Gen Y's are the most over indulged, selfish, mamby pamby, been overly treated with kid gloves generation that there's ever been.
I often muse and ask my wife why did we have two generation Y kids.
Gen Y is code for Y did we bother.....they've been AWOL since 12 years old
"Gen Y's are the most over
"Gen Y's are the most over indulged, selfish, mamby pamby, been overly treated with kid gloves generation that there's ever been."
Yep, they are pretty bad alright, and second only to the baby boomer generation.
What a chump! Poor kids.
What a chump! Poor kids.
It really says something
It really says something about a generation when they endlessly whinge about the children that they raised. They then wonder why their children leave the country and don't call.
Yes, it does make one wonder.
Yes, it does make one wonder. If Gen Y are such spoilt brats, isn't it the Gen X parents who made them so ? I reckon the baby boomers did a fine job of raising their Gen X kids. The thought of what Gen Z kids will turn out to be does make me cringe!!
Gen x have only just started
Gen x have only just started to raise kids. BBs at the tail end are also in some cases recently starting families ( men with younger wives)
We need a options markets to
We need a options markets to give people the choice to limit downside risk.
JT, Ernst & Young was
JT, Ernst & Young was Feltex's auditor not KPMG.
Thank you for auditing my
Thank you for auditing my comments. oops!
Lets see, those aged between
Lets see, those aged between 30 and 40 were born between 1970 and 1980, what did the sharemarket do between 1985 and 1995 to these kids parents.
Kids are influenced by there parents views which were formed in a period not to disimiliar to the current situation. As JT clearly states, people get away scot free.
Wake up Brian you reap what you sow.
Brian Gaynor has for years
Brian Gaynor has for years provided the most informed and balanced analysis and commentary on the NZ economy (sorry Bernard). He has provided copious stats which show in ruthless detail our lemming-like infatuation with property, and how it has resulted in a shrunken and unbalanced economy, porked up by successive governments.
Anything he says is worth listening to. He should be put onto think tanks, rather than ideologue old hacks like Don Brash.
Cheers to all
Brian Gaynor doesnt like
Brian Gaynor doesnt like property because he is a fund manager and prefers money going into managed funds like his Milford Asset Management, as opposed to people buying rental properties. Gaynor has a complete conflict of interest with pretty much every thing he writes, and therefore has questionable ethics as a journalist and fund manager.
I was born in 77. My friends
I was born in 77. My friends and I have heard very little about shares and a great deal about making money out of property. Now property investment is getting bad news, it could be a good time that the NZ sharemarket markets itself showing how to and where to research who to invest in.
Fair comment DC Someone on
Fair comment DC
Someone on here told me a year or so ago how to purchase shares easily(might of been Taxman or someone similar)-use ASB Securities, trade on online with a cash management account on the NZX and ASX
Use www.sharechat.co.nz to get inside tips, background etc
We do get a huge amount of knowledge (and poor advice) from property investors on this site would be great to hear from the chappies who have done well out of the NZ sharemarket and their tips etc
My kiwisaver growth share has 50% in international shares and 15% in Oz shares and 5% in NZ shares. I supplement this with direct holdings in shares in NZ companies
Regards
And of course you can
And of course you can even buy into commercial property trusts on the sharemarket, here's an update on AMP
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10663657
Buy Ryman Healthcare and
Buy Ryman Healthcare and Abano Healthcare which are both NZ public companies. Both of them have made their shareholders huge tax free capital gains in the last four years and have paid good dividends which are tax paid in your hands. Both have excellent management and boards. Abano is currently expanding into Australia and Asia and Ryman is about to start up in Australia. Both are taking advantage of the aging of the baby boomers generation in terms of accomodation and heatlh needs. A no brainer really.
I disagree, at this point,
I disagree, at this point, with the utmost respect. Left and right, humanist and selfish, have all run up against the limits to exponential growth.
The Warehouse just accelerated the turning of finite resources - the most crucial being fossil energy - into throwaway crap.
Beyond the peak rate at which those resources could be extracted, and particularly the rate at which energy could be supplied, the options contract. Meaning jobs (and thus worker's incomes) contract, and share returns contract, at an accelerating rate, from here on.
All of which is out of most folks ken.
Perhaps those who rely on their incomes to reinforce their manhood will contract too.
Whatever suits....
This lack of Gen X/Y business
This lack of Gen X/Y business start ups is the direct result of 2 things. Student Loans, and the Property Bubble.
The average gen X/Y 'er simply isn't in a financial position to even dream of starting a business. If they are lucky enough to have paid off their student loan, the next priority is saving many years for a house deposit. Without a house with decent equity in it, to use as security, there isn't a hope in hell in getting a business start up loan.
So go figure BB's, you created the problems that the younger generation is facing, and still seem clueless as to the effect it is having.
I absolutely couldn't agree
I absolutely couldn't agree more. First priority is to get the loans paid off, then you want the security of a home before investing in a business. By the time you get a house paid off the biological clock starts ticking and its time for kids. Could always postpone or cancel having the kids.... but thats another issue.
Best comment on this site for
Best comment on this site for a while. Sums up my sitation to the letter. While I earn a good income and may be able to rise above many in my age group don't have a chance. Young NZers are hamstrung by exactly what you have just mentioned.
Ps. 2 weeks till my Student loan is gone YIPEE
Just look at the recent IPOs
Just look at the recent IPOs over the last 7yrs. Austral Pacific, Eastern Hi FI, Dominion Finance Holdings......all gone and dusted with massive investor wealth lost. Look at Glassearth, Diligent Boardbooks, Ecoya, Kathmandu.....less than their listing price. No wonder investors are gun shy!
These were brought to the market, but have ended up as duds.
To be completely fair
To be completely fair Glassearth at least had to do a dual listing both here and on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) just to get started due to the lack of available and willing investors within NZ.
well you no i am the bottom
well you no i am the bottom end ot the baby boomer,well i was not taught that life was easy we did it tough in the 60s and the 70s and we produced kids that we gave everything for them to and denied ourselves because we wanted to give our kids a better life and what did we create.well look around we screwed up and forgot to teach our kids what a buck is worth dont blame them we have done it to ourselves,but as theres always is hope,hope they will figure it out,good luck to them as we didnt do them any favors but life seems too imitate itself, good luck as our parents told us the same bloody thing but did we listen no but wee respected them.probarly thats the difference, hopefully to a better life.
maybe if the had floats with
maybe if the had floats with more upside instead of the lead balloons of late,too many flagrant scandals or was it fragrant candles?
BTW, a absolute bouquet to
BTW, a absolute bouquet to you, Bernard, by introducing commentary by dispassionate & insightful people like Gaynor.
I used to despair when you used to host ideological rants by that absoluted pedant Roger Kerry, trotting out the mantra of his paymasters at the Business Roundtable, absolutely discredited by the amount of wealthy destruction they presided over thru their companies. This was also the group that convinced the govt not to introduce the much-needed regulation after the debacle in the sharemarket after 1987, thru their proxies Ruth Richardson & Bill Birch.
Gaynor on the other hand has picked out the weaknesses in our economic model, and provided copious stats to back up his analysis and recommendations. Always great value.
So good on you, you do your own credibility a world of good.
Cheers to all
"currently leaving for
"currently leaving for Australia to chase better job opportunities." - Thats kindof a funny comment. My money is currently leaving the NZ market to chase better investment opportunities in Australia.
Why would you leave, Better
Why would you leave, Better jobs, better pay, BETTER WEATHER, friendly people. Gulp, I just answered my own question.
Basically, the share market
Basically, the share market is a no go zone, properties is a no no (accroding to the gospel of interest.co.nz). Finance companies - what finance companies? the future is just blxxdy great...
that's it I am off to seek.com.au for job opportunities...
Bernard, has this been an
Bernard, has this been an interesting discussion or what?
Brian Gaynor has rightly highlighted the poor state of the sharemarket. And the response of people on your site is to complain and complain about it also.
Yet, I never see PIs grizzling on your site about the state of the property market when negative articles are put up by you, like we have seen people here complaining about the state of the share market.
Interesting. Can I draw the conclusion that property investors are happier with their investments than are the share investors are with their's?
I disagree. I am very happy
I disagree. I am very happy with my share portfolio which is still doing very well. I would rather be sitting on it than property investments especially if they had debt on them.
I'm quite happy with my
I'm quite happy with my sharemarket investments - I'll be almost 100% invested by tomorrow afternoon. However, its all in the ASX and I really have no interest in the NZX.
"Can I draw the conclusion
"Can I draw the conclusion that property investors are happier with their investments than are the share investors are with their's? "
I hate to say it on this website, but the answer is.. most definitely
hey I need to raise $125,000
hey I need to raise $125,000 maybe I should list on the NZX!!
No just ring Allied Farmers
No just ring Allied Farmers and ask if you could add a few million shares on to the list. There will be plenty of dopes out there who will willing to buy them.
where are those anti-PIs.
where are those anti-PIs. Have they all gone off the cliff somewhere? So quiet!
Just sitting back and
Just sitting back and watching all the news come in such as the terrible unemployment figures and the dairy auction figures both of which are going to keep property values where they are. I think not.
There are no such things as
There are no such things as 'anti=PI's'.
Just sane, intelligent, forward looking,.........
Yeah Right ! Insert TUI ad
Yeah Right ! Insert TUI ad right here!!!
The anti PI's are the one's
The anti PI's are the one's who blindly assume that no PI has ever made money through investing in property and that they are all highly leveraged, cash flow negitive, tax avoiding speculators. They also believe that home owners paid too much, can't afford their mortgages, have lost their jobs and are all going to mortgagee auction.
On the other side we have the PI cultists who have equally irrational arguements.
Between them they manage to highjack every thread and ruin the site for everyone else.
Between them
Disagree your name. Property
Disagree your name. Property investing and share investing are at the core of investment debate so will always be a topic of discussion.
I stopped buying shares
I stopped buying shares because the online brokers put their charges up. It was ok when it was only $29.50 a trade. Now its a percentage that adds up to hundreds, its not worth buying and selling if all your profits are going to them in charges.
You should just be
You should just be accumulating good shares in monopoly situations that pay good dividends and if there is a dip just buy more to bring down your average price. When you retire you have a lot of dividends coming in and they are generally tax paid in your hand so you just have to spend them.
The experts say shares will
The experts say shares will go up over time. Telstra buy $7.50 now $4.00, NPT buy $1.00 Now 52c, Geneva 36.4c now 5c, Allied 21c now 4c, and Gaynor wonders why no ones buying. People want to make money not lose it.
That is what is happening now
That is what is happening now to those who are holding property but the numbers are bigger than shares and to make it worse a lot of it is with borrowed money.
The Man...read Anonymous
The Man...read Anonymous comments at 11.17am on this report about the sharemarket.
All the anti PI mob can do is moan about their own investment outlets.
Don't see PIs doing that do we.
Ha.
Anon at 3.41`p.m. Thanks for
Anon at 3.41`p.m. Thanks for that, you are dead right. No doubt the negatives will attack us though!!
This article on the poor
This article on the poor state of the share market generates relatively little comment, whilst any article on the poor state of the property markets has all the doom and gloomers howling that they "told ya so" and that PIs deserve it, "maaaaate" etc etc.
What's this telling us about the state of mind of this site's posters?
Certainly reading the above I think share investors are generally very unhappy with their lot. But the relative lack of comment here also indicates share investors are embarrassed about their chosen investment's performance.
Contrast this with interest.co.nz's negative reports on property, where the few property investors here rise to the defence of their chosen investment form.
A stark difference in attitude to one's investment is demonstrated here.
I agree unfortunately. The
I agree unfortunately. The share market as an outlet for investor funds is terrible here. But people on this site say dont buy houses. Well where else can you go? They dont like property now dont like shares as well.
You don't have to be
You don't have to be invested, all the time. Sometimes, like now, doing nothing makes money; simply by not losing it.
There are some fantastic
There are some fantastic shares in NZ like Ryman,Abano and Ebos. Ebos for example have just sold some assets and will have no debt. It pays a good dividend and sells health products all over the world. There are great shares in NZ. You just have to look for them.
Which means that the sellers
Which means that the sellers of those same shares think the opposite?
They need to defend property
They need to defend property as it is in a bad state and getting worse by the day. The share markets since March last year has made a lot of people all over the world very happy and very well off especially if you were fortunate enough to be able to put a lot of cash into them. The trouble with PI's is they are often inflexible and blinkered and cannot see the benefit of investing in a diversified manner and therefore have missed out on a big opportunity once again.
Who wants to diversify into
Who wants to diversify into shares if even the pro-share brigade bad-mouth shares and the share market?
I am in both actually which
I am in both actually which means I am diversifed. I was being attacked by someone so have a right to defend my position which is diversification. Each investment vehicle has their good days and bad days.
Just like houses anon. People
Just like houses anon. People buy and sell for all sorts of reasons. What you have to do is look at each of those three shares and ask yourself where you would be if you had held them for the last few years. In a fantastic position and each of them has excellent balance sheets and are poised to grow their overseas earnings which is great for our country. All three are in the aged/health area and are therefore very defensive. Ane they are liquid so you can sell them every day if you want for example to buy a new car or go for a holiday.
Correct RPT. The moaners will
Correct RPT. The moaners will moan whatever is the case.