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Barfoot and Thompson reports house sales down 23% in August, while average price fell 4% to NZ$510,978
Auckland's biggest real estate agency group Barfoot and Thompson has reported it sold 637 properties in August, which was down 23% from the same month a year ago.
Barfoots blamed uncertainty in the economy and concerns about South Canterbury Finance for the weak sales and the move to a 'buyers market'.
About a third of all property sales in New Zealand are from Auckland, with Barfoots' market share in Auckland around 43%. Barfoots was responsible for about 14% of sales nationally in July.
The REINZ is due to report national sales figures on Tuesday September 14, while Quotable Value is due to report its housing value index for August next Thursday September 9.
The figures may surprise some who have argued Auckland's housing market has been stronger than the rest of New Zealand in recent months.
Barfoots said its average sale price was NZ$510,879, which was the lowest in six months and down 4% from NZ$532,023 a year earlier. It was also down 4.4% from July.
Volumes were down from 644 in July and down from 665 in June to their lowest level for any one month since February 2010.
"Auckland continued to tick over quietly in August, but remains stalled on winter sales levels while prices came under pressure, with the average sales price for the month falling to its lowest level since January," Barfoot Managing Director Peter Thompson said.
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“Sales levels have remained constant around the 650 level for three months," he said.
“In August the market turned in favour of buyers, and the major contributor to this is the lack of choice for buyers. We are selling what we list, but throughout August there was a degree of uncertainty about the economy, compounded by the challenges South Canterbury Finance was going through, and which ultimately led to it being placed in receivership," Thompson said.
“The lack of choice shows up in the number of new listings which, at 1086 in August, was the lowest in 7 months and the lowest in 18 months if you exclude December, which is always affected by the lead in to the Christmas and holiday season."
Barfoot said it had 5626 properties for sale at the beginning of September, which was the lowest number for 7 months.
“There are buyers in the market, and we are experiencing a significant increase in the number of visitors to our web site."
“Once the coming personal and GST tax changes are behind us, and as an improving economy increases confidence, we anticipate vendors will return to the market, and prices and activity will show a modest lift as we move into summer.”
Rentals
Meanwhile, the average weekly rent reported by Barfoot was NZ$406, down NZ$2 a week on the average for July but up NZ$28 on August a year ago.
There were 728 properties rented out in August, up 1.8 percent from August a year ago, but down 6.1% from July. It said July was traditionally one of the two ‘high’ months of the year, the other being January.
97 Comments
Strage way of putting it!
Strage way of putting it! "..“ the market turned in favour of buyers, and the major contributor to this is the lack of choice for buyers" and "..we anticipate vendors will return to the market, and prices and activity will show a modest lift..". So, less choice is a buyer market? and more vendors is a seller?!
All part of B&Ts effort to
All part of B&Ts effort to educate the masses anon.....!
Strange indeed! Maybe strange
Strange indeed! Maybe strange financial journalism
Smoke n' mirrors dear chap,
Smoke n' mirrors dear chap, that is all, that is all, got to dress up the ugly truth and keep the Ponzi scheme going until you wring as much juice out of the sheep like workers who never question anything and go along with the play because as school children are taught to be senseable and not to make waves.
Prices down 4% in 12
Prices down 4% in 12 months?! is that all?
At that rate it will take over 7 years before Bernards 30% fall prediction comes true.
I don't think so.
It's all about rate of
It's all about rate of change. From flat to 4% down is an exponential progession. That should see the 30% by the middle of next year!
and inflation.... 2%? So in
and inflation....
2%?
So in 12months you have lost 6%....and thats unlikely to slow....its more likely to accelerate...
regards
Its 5 years if we allow a 2%
Its 5 years if we allow a 2% inflation per year....plus actually its likely that this will be a bad decade and not a handful.
So once you are down 30%....you then have to climb 30% just to get back to where you were last year....
How much do you allow per year for maintenance etc?
Neg gearing has gone....so losses for 5~10 years....isnt property a great investment!....uh no.
regards
Your maths is a bit out there
Your maths is a bit out there Steven. If you are down 30% you actually need to climb 43% to get back where you were.
"Stalled"...hahahaaaaaaahahah
"Stalled"...hahahaaaaaaahahaha...didn't I see an Airbus do that once into a forest!
There was an even more
There was an even more interesting crash i read about.....the plane went into a 1G spiral/roll....so the crew didnt realise this until the plane was past recovery...they were upside down and pointed down and up came the mountain....
regards
Dang finger...
Dang finger...
This news has to be good for
This news has to be good for property! Don't you know PIs are never wrong? lol
Muhahaha, here we go, now the
Muhahaha, here we go, now the correction begins
Poor SCF, it is now being
Poor SCF, it is now being blamed for the fall in the Auckland property market. Those Timaru people sure have a lot of clout! Is the poor winter weather this year their fault as well?
Not only that SCF has a time
Not only that SCF has a time machine....they go bankrupt in September but get blamed for August!
These guys are a laugh arent they....
regards
“In August the market
“In August the market turned in favour of buyers, and the major contributor to this is the lack of choice for buyers"
huh?
lack of choice means the seller has the advantage...surely?
regards
Housing market in the UK and
Housing market in the UK and US are starting their second leg down:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/constructionandproperty/...
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/08/25/326331/us-housing-bad-to-wors...
Why an earth would anyone think NZ will be any different?
After all central banks have used up almost all their silver bullets (interest rate cuts).
When the UK and US bubbles
When the UK and US bubbles were surging, Kiwis gleefully shrieked "Where they go, we go!"...but now that the UK and US bubble is collapsing ever faster those same Kiwis are screaming "It can't happen here, we're different!"...
True.
True.
When the UK and US bubbles
When the UK and US bubbles were surging, Kiwis gleefully shrieked "Where they go, we go!"...but now that the UK and US bubble is collapsing ever faster those same Kiwis are screaming "It can't happen here, we're different!"...
Yes, and very succinctly put. It's funny how quickly it changed from NZ always follows the USA to NZ doesn't follow the USA!
Buyers must now see they are
Buyers must now see they are in charge. Better to save for another year and watch the work of mista fear. Plenty of rentals to look at and rents falling. Wait a year and prices will be down 10%.
Yep why buy today when
Yep why buy today when tomorrow's prices will be much lower?
''Barfoot said it had 5626
''Barfoot said it had 5626 properties for sale at the beginning of September, which was the lowest number for 7 months''.
Strange he didnt make the 12 month comparison - well maybe not that strange. Nationwide there is a ton of unsold inventory compared to 12 months ago, see here:
http://www.interest.co.nz/charts/real-estate/houses-sale
In fact nationwide inventory levels are much closer to where they were when last the property market was in trouble (Aug/Sept2008) than this time last year.
So there is a ton of unsold inventory sitting on the market. Which is about to be joined by a whole lot more inventory in Spring.
And in Bizarroworld this is going to make the market stronger?
LOL. Barfoot must think we were all born in Timaru.
It always does makes the
It always does makes the market stronger! Didn't you know that man?
Big LOL at the LOL :-)
Big LOL at the LOL
:-)
Only 10% in a year Wolly,
Only 10% in a year Wolly, golly can't you do better than that? What about the dollar too Wolly, golly that had better drop as well!
By golly you're right
By golly you're right prosperopink the dollar will drop as predicted. A good time will be had by all exporters without bank managers in their wallets. That jolly enough for you?
Rising rents will stabilise
Rising rents will stabilise the market and even push it up. Even a school kid knows that .
Haha yeah what the school
Haha yeah what the school kids don't know though is that if that trend continues they will never own a home. It's people like you that are going to bankrupt this nation. Go to Aussie and borrow money there.
Rents aren't rising.
Rents aren't rising. Desperate PIs are forced to reduce rents to get and keep tenants.
School kids don't pay rent.
School kids don't pay rent. And adults are going to pay even less as they have to spend more to keep their kids alive.
Andyh....Everything ALWAYS
Andyh....Everything ALWAYS make the market stronger in Bizzaroworld! Conversely, nothing makes it weaker. Its totally AMAZING really
Like a dream come true! You
Like a dream come true! You can't lose with property, its a one way bet, of course, in these times only seasoned PI's get through and the over-leveraged suffer, and a lot of us don't buy properties for capital gains, we buy them to "build" wealth. Wealth creation is awesome, you can create wealth from nothing but a puff of air, which is entirely what high property prices are founded on, don't tell anyone though.
Wolly at 1:57pm "Wait a year
Wolly at 1:57pm
"Wait a year and prices will be down 10%"
You can't state facts about the future because it hasn't happened yet.
Yes it has Bob...you gotta
Yes it has Bob...you gotta get into this quantum stuff mate...anything can happen!
yeah, predictions a winner.
yeah, predictions a winner. You can't be proven wrong, and if you spin it out long enough, any potential litigates will have died off.
Crystal balls, tarot cards, tea-leaves, unlimited economic growth.........
They all work.
Yet chances are Bob that you
Yet chances are Bob that you would praise Olly Newland's recent pro-property predictions as being 100% fact.
Chances are "merlin" that I
Chances are "merlin" that I wouldn't I don't know whats going to happen, as opposed to a lot of people on this thread who seem to know everything, why don't you gaze into your crystal ball and make something up.
The premise that house prices
The premise that house prices must fall is logical but I can't see mayhem coming while the employement levels are reasonable, interest rates remain low and the ozzie banks manage the rate of morgagee sales. I believe it will take a trigger event greater than SCF to alarm the market and force sellers to take a 30% hit.
Like : "..when markets
Like : "..when markets finally recognise that government stimulus has failed to produce a sustained recovery in private sector spending, the effect will be violent. ...unprecedented government outlays, racking up a bill that cannot be repaid in full. That realisation will... hit markets soon and with powerful effect."
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Abandoning-a-treacherous-market-pd20100903-8WSTX?OpenDocument&src=sph&src=rot
I second this. This is why I
I second this. This is why I see many more months or even years of bad investment performance from housing. But if you are buying to live in the house, it probably doesn't make much difference. You may pay a little extra compared to next year, but owning to live in a house has more value than just the $$$$ figure. Its easy to sit on the fence and dream of a easy world where we can afford everything we want, but the reality is that housing will always be expensive compared to incomes.
It never used to be "..the
It never used to be "..the reality is that housing will always be expensive compared to incomes.", comparatively. Only for the last 20 odd years when the ratios got way out of wack. A house used to cost 3-and-a bit times a single man's wages. It will again.
I'm not sure that the 3.5
I'm not sure that the 3.5 time income ratio is valid anymore. I don't have any figures but surely far more families are prepared to have both parents at work and the kids in childcare, whereas in the past this wasn't the case. The other factor, especially in Auckland, is the limited land available to develop into residential housing, which inflates land prices. I don't see more land appearing anytime soon to alleviate this.
Both parents have to work
Both parents have to work because the ratio is 7:1 and not 3.5:1 To an extent that seems meanginless, that 3:1 or 3.5:1 seems to hold good world wide, and in the past it has corrected to that....there is no reason to expect it not to.
regards
I dunno. I'm not a PI
I dunno. I'm not a PI investor but I'd have to disagree, as there is only so much land and there are more and more people everyday. Maybe somwhere in the middle is netural, 5:1?
Bernard .......I've got a
Bernard .......I've got a brilliant cost cutting idea....
Monday Morning a Headline that just says........Housing and Real estate.
No story what so ever...none nada zip. I'll bet you get at least 60 hits for doing nothing.
uh uh you like yes..?
And then Bernard gets to
And then Bernard gets to watch the ferrets in the sack, fighting, over nothing at all!
Can't argue that Anonny (mk1I
Can't argue that Anonny (mk1I think) but good business is where...........etc
I do like the imagery you have conjured though.
Love the idea. I could get
Love the idea. I could get the ferrets sponsored. I bet Telecom has some spare money
cheers
Bernard
ANZ got there first. Hang on!
ANZ got there first. Hang on! No. They were the meekats...and the sound that chap makes on the ad., where he opens his statement, is going to be similar to that uttered by over-exposed property investors when they see the offers coming in on their properties, from now on.
Now your thinking Big B.
Now your thinking Big B. although full credit to nonny on the ferret action.
Also If you can squeeze the time off from grinding Hubbo's bones have a look at Mark Hubbards reappearance on the Say Sorry thread.
He's got some innovative ideas on how we could jazz things up round here...(although a little old hat)............ so I gave em a tweak.
and please don't forget the
and please don't forget the Bollard cartoon doing a runner!
Usual Friday update from the
Usual Friday update from the R/E Company by email , ".....Listings appear to be short, as ours are being targeted by the opposition. .... we seem to be doing an increased number of appraisals for people contemplating coming to the market. Spring has arrived....there is still a high level of uncertainty and a lack of confidence in our domestic economy...."
Average price in Auckland
Average price in Auckland down as there were more lower priced homes sold in Auckland.
Investors are seeing that property is the way to go. A safe haven!.
For the intelligent property investor you are able to obtain from good property in excess of the current mortgage rates, plus tax advantages in areas other than Auckland which is overpriced..
This is all time high average
This is all time high average rents in August for Auckland!
House prices down and rents rapidly rising...every property investor dream...
Is this the rental high? Is
Is this the rental high? Is this as good as it gets? ( Because if rents were going to go higher, why haven't they? Oh; Landlords being kind to the tenants, again...) Golly! And still way below the cost of actually owning the property that we rent. Good times indeed. Long may they contunue ( they will....)
You're a muppet, I hope
You're a muppet, I hope you're leveraged to the hilt and quaking in your little PI boots.
Lucky me. What a relief that
Lucky me. What a relief that I am out of the property market. My savings are in the bank and though it gives me a low return at least I can sleep peacefully
Yep, peace of mind....don't
Yep, peace of mind....don't cross the road, stay in house... don't open doors to anyone, pad lock your windows and watch news regularly...you never know what might hit you next...
Nothing will hit him if he
Nothing will hit him if he doesn't take silly risks.
And where's the fun in that?
And where's the fun in that? Live a little.
There are no buyers in the
There are no buyers in the market. People are aware that if this trend continues then there will be bargains available by next year. So why will anyone want to buy now.
644 numer of sales 1086 NEW
644 numer of sales
1086 NEW listings
is that a good thing?
Lid on rental boiling pot
Lid on rental boiling pot has exploded! The question is how far will it go...good to see people are saving and bracing themselves... will come handy to top up rapidly rising rents
Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha. Sure rents
Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha. Sure rents may overtake the price of the property.
Just put up your asking price
Just put up your asking price on your rentals to $5000 per week, one some. Let's see who moves in. You can ask whatever you like, but until the money is paid to you, you have no income at all.
Rents must rise - they are
Rents must rise - they are far too low now in terms of Auckland averages and variances vs house prices. With PIs costs going up like GST on rates, R&M, insurance, and other cost increases thanks to the ETS, insurance premium rises, interest rates slowly rising, I am working more hours to pay my landlord more rent.
As long as everyone appreciates rents will be going up, then we can ensure we don't have to move out into a further out or less affluent suburb. I just wish I bought a house pre 2005!
Too bad that unlike those
Too bad that unlike those landlords' mortgages, rents are shackled to the reality of what people earn. So yeah, they might be able to go up long-term, on the condition that every worker is issued with a magical guinea-pig that craps banknotes.
There is little hope that
There is little hope that rents will rise substantially wages cant cope....to make money the house prices need to drop 30% then the rent you have today will be a decent income...because the mortgage will be alot smaller.
regards
Surging rates will bring
Surging rates will bring back some old genuine christian values...people will be closer to each other, young people will look after their parents and youngsters will save more instead of wasting themselves in pubs...
i think i can see a light
i think i can see a light ????
GET OFF THE TRACKS!
GET OFF THE TRACKS!
tunnel vision
tunnel vision
jeez..it's "pants-down" wally
jeez..it's "pants-down" wally without his CAPLOCK on!
Looks like my prediction at
Looks like my prediction at the start of the year of a 4-5% drop this year may be right - in fact it may be more than that. Month to month figuers ARE volatile though.
We can't now be far above the 2008 trough. By the end of the year we'll be back to the lows of that year.
Yah can't lose with property, maaaaaaaaaaaaate
I believe you predicted
I believe you predicted 15-20% drop last year. Or was it year before?
Yep 15% the year before last.
Yep 15% the year before last. So assuming a 4-5 % drop this year, it would only need to fall another 3-4% for me to be right
And I think thats quite likely to happen
Even if it only drops another 4-5% this year then flattens, thats around a 11-12% drop in total, in real terms 22-23%
Its quite clear that the mini boom last year was only caused by the massive and unprecedented drops in the OCR
Well last year "everyone" or
Well last year "everyone" or enough lemmings anyway believed that the US stimulus would fix things so "now" was the time to buy.....funny reading the likes of the WSJ, what they said would happen just hasnt......it really looks rough in the US....real un-emplyment is 16 maybe 18% and its set to get worse....the so called close to 10% official looks set to fly past that 10% quite possibly before the November elections in which case GOP will get in. That in turn will be the death bell of the US economy...a year or 2 or seized Fed Govn / Congress and political circuses...while American voters suffer...and hence us....for me that 22~23% looks closer to 30%...IMHO.
regards
I see granny herald has
I see granny herald has revamped their online property pages to remove residential property as a discrete section thereby burying all the bad news stories in time for the important first spring weekend marketing splurge. Can't have all those expensive prepaid ads being devalued can we guys. Fail. The good ship is going down.
Lotsa rebuilding activity in
Lotsa rebuilding activity in Christchurch now...could last well past the election...all paid out of insurance companies too...a real spring construction sector boom and ...oh bugger..where have all the builders gone!
Engineers to discover why brick walls fell off buildings..walls that should have been ripped off years ago...architects to redesign replacement structure..hopefully not using the plans last used to build rotten rubbish...all the suppliers gearing up to be first in...truckies and labourers..the hard hat makers too...Roofers and concrete blokes ...all that steel reinforcing the council will now demand must be used...NO more bloody brick that's for sure.
Then the council will change some wording on the red tape and that will be the end of any other brick facades in the city. More demo work followed by rebuilding stage two....this could last five years at least. Followed by similar action from the wgtn city council when the penny drops that most of wgtn would be dust had the shake been there.
Yessir we sure is about to have us an insurance funded construction feast...soooo much employment and the re election of the govt a cert. Don't forget the chimneys!!
Notes to self: sell insurance stock at the open...buy construction sector...take ute to town and fill with bricks for garden....pay insurance Monday before premiums jump 10%!
Stop plans to buy property in Canterbury..must now about damage...liability?..must know about council and demolition orders...what damage has happened to the house/flat/apartment/highrise etc that I don't know about????
Dam...all the Canterbury builders still in town just slapped 20% on their charge out rate!
2007 earthquake saved
2007 earthquake saved Gisbornes economy, work just drying up now
Yes, and it will save the
Yes, and it will save the National government too, although it's a shame they've recently wasted more than a billion taxpayer dollars on bailing out profiteers and opportunists.
The Samoan earthquake and tsunami saved the Nats from the fallout over Double Dipton's accommodation allowance rort.
Divine intervention?
To shake the nation, but
To shake the nation, but particularly the majority of politicians and the beehive would do wonders.
. .. and the wall insulation
.
.. and the wall insulation just disintegrated....
A SUCCESSFUL AGENT IN MY CITY
A SUCCESSFUL AGENT IN MY CITY SAID TO ME YESTERDAY THAT IT WAS BECOMING MORE DIFFICULT TO ACHIEVE SALES AS THE VENDORS WANT LAST YEARS PRICES AND THE BUYERS WANT NEXT YEARS PRICES. SHE DID ALSO SAY SHE WAS STARTING TO SEE EVIDENCE OF VENDORS STARTING TO CAVE IN AND SOME INTERESTING PRICES WERE BEGINNING TO COME IN. THE FUTURE IS GOING TO BE INTERESTING FOR HOUSING VALUES.
The earthquake could be a
The earthquake could be a blessing in disguise for Leaky Home owners. Potentially there could be quite a few claims coming up from them
See this
See this post:
http://www.interest.co.nz/comment/reply/50040/562457#comment-562457
And then read the replies that come after it.
The replies are in the thread
The replies are in the thread here:
" /insurance/vulnerable-re-insurers-under-pressure-raise-their-rates "
(Stupid spam filter! Add BH's website address in front of the above.)
out of adversity comes
out of adversity comes diversity!
we'll donate the burgers to the fallen in the south..SCF burgers are being worked on as we speak!
out of adversity comes
out of adversity comes diversity!
we'll donate the burgers to the fallen in the south..SCF burgers are being worked on as we speak!
This from Trade Me: Number
This from Trade Me:
Number of available rental properties nationally dropped 18% and demand increased 22% per listing. Accordingly average rent increased 4%, and 9% in Auckland alone.
And conclusion: If you're a tenant in these areas (Auckland and Chch), brace yourself for a further rent rise!
http://www.trademe.co.nz/community/announcements/post/895
Give it up already. Your
Give it up already. Your bubble has burst, the free ride is over, the gravy train is no more. You backed the wrong horse, etc etc etc.
All that spin and hype and hot air you thrived on during the bubble days is worth exactly zero.
One ironic thing about the current situation is that the collapse of your little property fantasyland has lead to, among other things, high unemployment, which means you're going to find it very hard to get a real job now, particularly with a CV based entirely around a "work" history of buying and selling houses amongst your silly mates.
We should not do property any
We should not do property any more and instead invest in super stable things like internet marketing packages that Dean Letfus and Shaun Stenning offer, and then be Property Gurus and do lease options, be property finders and make massive assignment/back-t0-back settlement fees, and be filthy rich and super duper mega successful like Dean?
Ya right! Let us know when Dean Letfus has been shut down please Bernard.
Bollard admits he knows
Bollard admits he knows nothing:
http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/4094682/Bollard-tells-of-rush-o...
This is interesting: "On a
This is interesting:
"On a dinner with Finance Minister Bill English and Treasury Secretary John Whitehead: "Both ... had given up alcohol for Lent. Perhaps I should have supported them ... but if ever I needed a stiff drink it was then."
Hahaha ... would have been more of a valid pennance had they given up the taxpayer paid for perks! Instaed we had English excusing his behaviour as it being a "legitimate entitlement".... wonder if it would be in God's eyes, or if he ever even thought about what Jesus/God might have thought about that particular attitude of his.
Bill English probably thinks
Bill English probably thinks he is next to a God, he's just a typical poltician who has a big sense of entitlement but doesn't like the common man to have any.
Power is corrupting and wherever you look, those in political power soon start working the rorts. John Key might be an exception ?