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Alex's election diary: Latest Herald poll shows NZ First at 4.9%, but TV polls show them lower; National falls, but can still govern alone

Posted in News

New Zealand First has jumped to 4.9% in the latest Herald-Digi poll, although polls from TVNZ and TV3 have Winston Peters' party at 2% and 3.5%, respectively.

There has been a surge of media interest in Peters, who has been out of Parliament for three years, as the 'teapot tape' saga rumbles on and speculation continues about comments made by Prime Minister John Key to ACT's Epsom candidate John Banks during their public cup of tea last week.

That meeting had been set up - media were invited - for Key to indicate to Epsom's National voters to give their electorate vote to Banks, so that ACT are able to re-enter Parliament at the November 26 election. ACT is polling well below the 5% party vote threshold, so its only hope of returning to Parliament is by getting an electorate seat.

But although media were ushered outside the cafe by Key's staff after a photo opportunity inside, a cameraman's recording device was left on the politicians' table, and picked up the conversation between Banks and Key. The recording has since been passed on to the Herald on Sunday and TV3.

Prime Minister John Key this week made a complaint to the police that the conversation between him and Banks had been private, so should not be able to be published. New Zealand law states a person can record a conversation they are part of, but not a private conversation they are not part of.

The saga took an even sharper turn yesterday when police told four media organisations to hand over any unpublished material they had about the 'teapot tape', and that they would apply for search warrants if not.

Peters on the rise?

Winston Peters, who had been largely ignored by media through the election campaign until the tape saga, has continued the series of public meetings he has been holding around the country. Now he has a contingent of reporters following him due to speculation around remarks from Key about the ageing-nature of New Zealand First voters. There is also speculation Key and Banks discussed ACT's leadership, with some media arguing this makes the contents of the tape of public interest, meaning the transcript should be released.

The publicity has seen him shoot up in the latest Herald-Digi poll to 4.9% - just 0.1% shy of a return to Parliament with a week left to go in the election campaign.

However, two other polls released last night - from TVNZ and TV3 - had Peters at 2% and 3.5%, indicating he may still have a lot of work to do to get back into Parliament.

Nats fall

National is still set to be able to govern on its own according to all three polls, although its party vote appears to be trending down. The Herald poll put National at 49.89% - up 0.4% from last week, and enough to control Parliament.

However, the TVNZ poll put National at 53% (down 1%), and the TV3 poll showed National at its lowest level in three years at 50.2% (down 3.1%).

The Herald poll put Labour at 29.1% (up 0.4%), while TVNZ gave it 26% (down 2%) and TV3 27.4% (down 2.5%).

The Green Party continues to climb, up to 12.6% in the Herald poll, and is at 13% in both TV polls.

Read the Herald's full poll article here. It had a sample of 750 voters and was taken between last Thursday and Wednesday this week. The Herald says the party vote figure is of decided voters and 12.7% of respondents were undecided. The poll has a margin of error of 3.6 per cent.

Read TVNZ's full poll article here. It had a sample of 1,000 voters, and a margin of error of 3.1%

Still searching for web link to TV3 poll (any help is welcome). It was reported on Three News last night and again on Firstline this morning.

Your view?

We welcome your help to improve our coverage of this issue. Any examples or experiences to relate? Any links to other news, data or research to shed more light on this? Any insight or views on what might happen next or what should happen next? Any errors to correct?

We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment in the box on the right or click on the "'Register" link at the bottom of the comments.

Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current Comment policy is here.

70 Comments

Teapot tape cameraman going

Teapot tape cameraman going to High Court to get a ruling on whether the conversation was private or not

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10766898

And on the police

And on the police investigation:

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10766877

Crimes were prioritised by how serious they were, he said. Murders and sexual offences were investigated before robberies and somewhat lesser crimes, but the "teapot tape" complaint had become a priority for police.

"If they don't investigate, they'll be accused of being political. If they do investigate it and don't investigate them properly, they'll be accused of being political. And if they investigate it to the nth degree, which they really need to do, they'll also be accused of being political."

"Police are very careful that we support policy and not politicians. We don't want to get dragged into this either."

And yet...When Brash's email

And yet...When Brash's email were mysteriously leaked, almost certainly by someone close to him and probably trusted, the police said "We'll take a look, but we're very busy and this is not really much of a crime".

As a direct result of those leaks, Brash was out, John Key gleefully slithered into the top job, while Bill English laughed and laughed and laughed.

Now the shoe is on the other foot and Lo! The NZ Police claim that public perception is forcing them into what amounts to a politically motivated and driven witchhunt on behalf of none other than Prime Minister John Key, boss of the National party.

 

Yes mate it is a case of ' '

Yes mate it is a case of ' ' my political skullduggery is not worth investigating but if anyone does something I don't like I will make sure the police throw everything they have got at it even if no crime has probably been committed. ' '

Aunty Herald has had her hand

Aunty Herald has had her hand forced by John Key. The paper has always been a staunch Nat supporter, but now she's having to defend herself from attacks by Key. One way is to about face and try to manipulate the poll figures in favour of someone else this time.

TVNZ can't bring itself to fight their beloved National Party, even when the Nats are caning them. Hence TVNZ's higher rating for National. And they detest Winnie as much as National hates and fears him.

TV3? Traditionally not Nat brown-nosers, unlike TVNZ, so their poll result could possibly be accepted as almost reliable and accurate. But probably not.

Fasciniating. From another

Fasciniating. From another perspective I have always believed the NZ Herald to be fundamentally socialist (although in order to boost sales they have created some muck in the elction as policies within a constrained budget are never going to get much traction). TVNZ and TV3 much of a muchness and will do what it takes to get people to watch. Ergo, storm in a teacup (ooh the right are talking in private, it must be bad, run for the hills people, the right are rampant!!!!!)

We talk about free market but essentially with a regional newspaper structure that NZ has you don't get the stated political leaning as say the UK with the Guardian and the Telegraph being polar opposites on the political spectrum.

What are the margins of

What are the margins of error, and "undecideds" for these polls? Bearing these in mind, how can predicting the result be anything more than a pointless game?

Yep, they're coming

Yep, they're coming

It makes it hard ( and

It makes it hard ( and annoying ) to press "HOME" with an advertsing banner over the options, Alex!

Hi NA What browser are you

Hi NA

What browser are you using?

Is fine for me in Chrome, but will check with the tech guys too

Cheers

Alex

IE 9. Thx.

IE 9. Thx.

IE?? Give it the flick Nic-

IE??

Give it the flick Nic- Firefox, Chrome, even Safari are MUCH better browsers...

Apols to IE users - yes there

Apols to IE users - yes there is a new and as yet unresolved problem with the way our banners are displaying in most IE browsers. We are "working on it" but can't say yet when it will be resolved. It's a sudden and unexpected change that happened even though we have made no code changes in the period when it started. Investigation stage at present ...

Alex  -- Teapot tape

Alex  -- Teapot tape cameraman going to High Court to get a ruling on whether the conversation was private or not

So is he going to argue that all three, that is, his tape recorder, banksy and Johhny were all enaged in a conversation?

What  a load of c##p and a complete waste of time.  I still can't believe that grown men, experianced in their business (of media) continue to focus on.........nothing.

Yawn. Tea cup blah blah this

Yawn. Tea cup blah blah this is not news, this is the media trying to blow something up for god knows why - Sad. If privacy is allowed to be bypassed here for the public good why is the evidence collected clearly showing military style training in the Uraweras not  acceptable as public domain interest as well?

TV3, remember your owners got bailed out by tax payers with some tax deferment agreement. If this is the best you got one asks wether that was worth it "in the public interest".

How about focusing on reporting the news rather than trying to manufacture it. Try some actual policy coverage - theres an election in a few days remember..?

i think you miss the point

i think you miss the point (or maybe you don't and you're one of Brash's average 'New Zealanders') either way Smiley Wavey and his cronies love you for it... the subtext is this is an attack on media freedom. An act of bullying to get the media pussy-footing around the PM/government of the day and not asking the hard questions for fear of a police action is just what they want... just like in South Africa, Syria and other great democracies... and before you whine about the legality of the taped conversation and jump to Jonkeys defence about covert recordings, remember the media were invited there at his request so he could give his support to another political party in a somewhat dodgey, yet still legal manner...

You know what? I can't be bothered to carry on this debate with you and will leave it... vote Key in and live with the consequences. No one cares about party policy anymore, the decision is made Nats win, Labour lose, state assets sold to any bidder... doesn't matter what else is said or not said... at least for the first time Key's credibility is bing questioned and that has got to be a bloody good thing!

Another subtext: the police

Another subtext: the police do our bidding, and our bullshit non-issue is more important than your real crimes, peasants.

If privacy is allowed to be

If privacy is allowed to be bypassed here for the public good why is the evidence collected clearly showing military style training in the Uraweras not acceptable as public domain interest as well? 

Good point but the wrong angle.  Key showed a complete contempt for privacy and human rights with the attempt to retrospectively legalise deliberate police breaking of the law with covert video surveilling.  

But doesn't have the same contempt for his own human rights and right to privacy when recorded at a political stunt.

Outside of the cafe toilet

Outside of the cafe toilet neither could have any expectation of privacy at a (very poorly) stagemanaged public event, to which they'd invited the media to attend.

A media beat up this t cup

A media beat up this t cup business really is. The media accuse politicians etc of being light on policy etc but here they are trying to create the news.

This morning TVNZ led with the police association saying how busy they are ie contradicting the PMs little quip about crime down!

I don't doubt the media went to the police association to get a quote so they could run a story against the PM.. And the police association should be very careful before they dabble in politics! 

....one reason the police are

....one reason the police are so busy is the policys that now operate.  Not too many years ago if a young fella did something a bit silly and harmless, they go a talking to, warning and a ride home in the cop car.  Now days they put em all through their diversion process....that measn taking them downtown, fingerprining them, writing reports, writing summary of facts for court, fronting them and a prosector in court...and so on......they outfilt has gone made...Greg O'Connor hsa gome mad with it......

 

Key's response is a direct

Key's response is a direct attack on the freedom of the press/media... living in a police state is great! I've been to a few, you'll love it....

Key and Banks speaking the

Key and Banks speaking the truth over a cup of tea .

FEAR NOT THE TRUTH.

Fear Not the Truth -

Fear Not the Truth - exactly.

Which is why I'd like to know exactly what was said to form my own opinion and understanding of what John Key considers to be "bland" - meaning I assume: idle chat.

Hiding behind it being a matter of principle is disingenuous.  When Paula Bennett released the incomes of the solo parents who spoke out against the withdrawl of the training allowance - this is what she had to say;

Ms Bennett said she had a right to release information on individuals if they left out relevant details when publicising their situations.

"If someone is deciding they're happy to use their case to speak about or against something we are doing, I think it's fair the full story be told." 

Like the solo mums, Key invited the media to the tea party - so the "full story [shoud] be told" because the tape transcript is most certainly "relevent details" associated with the publicity stunt.

 

 

If there was anything "

If there was anything " game-changing " within the Banks & Key natter , the Herald would have published a transcript of the tape lickety-splick ........ ask questions later . Can you imagine having a robust discussion with Jolly Kid over a cup of tea ? I reckon I'd nod off during JK's dull conversation .

....... poor old Phil Goof but , he's trying desperately to keep the election based upon issues , and this happens ....... Side-swiped by a wayward tape-recorder at a tea-party . What an epitaph for his tombstone , after the election ..... Good on yer Phil , for manning up to the important stuff . A pity that the media circus prefer clowns & buffoons to follow .

And what has emerged victorious from the " storm-in-a-tea-cup "  ........ Winsome ! Good old Winnie is back . Oh yay . Talking his usual bollocks , being two-faced , appealing to the blue-rinse brigade once again ........

A week truely is a long time in politics ....

 

To be honest GBH, the

To be honest GBH, the desperation we're seeing is mostly in your defense of Key and National.

And for some shameless

And for some shameless self-promotion. On Sky News (channel 90) at 8:30pm Sunday, we will have Winston Peters on as part of a discussion on the MMP referendum.

http://www.skytv.co.nz/Default.aspx?tabid=1568

As a young journo who was not around when Peters was in Parliament last, I'm kinda looking forward to it.

ol' Winnie will never let you

ol' Winnie will never let you down... he talks in perfect sound bites!

ol' Winnie will never let you

ol' Winnie will never let you down... he talks in perfect sound bites!

ol' Winnie seems to be

ol' Winnie seems to be repeating himself ... he talks dribble & nonsense , atop his whine-box !

This is all pretty messy. Not

This is all pretty messy. Not only do we have various margins of error and the questions about systemic biases of polls to deal with but we have different polls with differing levels of accuracy and pundits whom take stabs in the dark about what is actually causing the various shifts we see.

I think the biggest wildcard is whether Nation supporters stay at home on the day with the assumption that their party has it in the bag whilst Labour/Greens supporters etc come out in droves because they are motivated to prevent the sale of assets amongst other things.

Double.

Double.

what a choice we have Key

what a choice we have

Key who speaks the truth over a cup of tea or

Goff who when his daughter was found with drugs on her believed her when she said ít was the first time''

Exactly - but the point is JK

Exactly - but the point is JK is preventing us from knowing what is the truth he speaks!!!

 

How do you know he was

How do you know he was speaking the truth...he was talking to Banks?

Truth aside, do we really want society  where openness and frank discussion cannot take place between two persons because they fear that a hidden recording device may splash it across the media?   

Furthermore, everyone seems to be overlooking that it may have included deeply personal matters,....such as how Banksie's boy is doing , swapping notes about mistress's, wifes, fetishes they have.....and so on..

It was a personal conversations being secretly recorded ...no right for anyone else to hear it...end of story.     

 

"It was a personal

"It was a personal conversations being secretly recorded..."

So why publicly preannounce the meeting and then invite the media to attend?

And it seems that the conversation was inadvertently recorded.

It was a public

It was a public event.

regards

"It was a personal

"It was a personal conversations being secretly recorded ...no right for anyone else to hear it..."

.... but it's now ok for the State to bug your house and record genuinely private conversations in your home without your knowledge?

JK was clearly happy with that law being passed.

Key -- ' ' Come and see me

Key -- ' ' Come and see me smile and wave for your cameras but don't listen to anything I say. ' '

Desperate Nat apologist said:

Desperate Nat apologist said: "Key who speaks the truth over a cup of tea"

LOL!

Is that what it takes to get him to finally stop lying?

LOL

From Peter Dunne: A quarter

From Peter Dunne:

A quarter of an already short four-week election campaign has been wasted by media obsession about what two men did or did not say over a cup of tea, UnitedFuture leader and Ohariu MP Peter Dunne said today.

“It is getting to the point of being unbelievable that this trivia is all the media cares about when New Zealanders are about to select a government to guide this country through the next three years in the midst of a global economy crisis.

“At worst, someone said something mean about Don Brash, and not nice about older voters who support Winston Peters.

“Are these really the biggest issues New Zealanders face right now?

“The media need to serve the New Zealand public here and get a sense of proportion, because they are rightly starting to get the blame for this ongoing fiasco from an increasingly frustrated public that would like to see the real issues facing this country debated.

“Phil Goff – the potential alternative Prime Minister – has not been in the news for a week now, and although I am not fighting his corner, it does show how ridiculous things are getting,” Mr Dunne said.

At worst, someone said

At worst, someone said something mean about Don Brash, and not nice about older voters who support Winston Peters. 

Mean to Don Brash - hardly as he intends to give the "strange fellow" a plumb diplomatic post overseas once he's bowled him a second time over.

And being blatently ageist is a bit worse than just "not being nice" - it's down right insulting to the general population of elderly in New Zealand.

But most importantly, Peter Dunne forgets to mention that there is rumour that the conversation included reference to having "unbridled power" - and it's these comments that I am most interested in. 

Was it Key gloating at this prospect (in that he keeps telling us that he's an inclusive sort of guy) - or was it John Banks gloating at this prospect (I assume we could expect this from him given he's a hangover from the Muldoon and Bolger eras I believe).

NZ's version of unicameral Parliamentary democracy has no real checks and balances - (aside from the Courts and to a lesser degree the Offices of Parliament) and MMP makes up for this to a degree. 

If JK longs for a second term in as a ruling Executive - it's a scary prospect as a great deal of irreversible damage can be done in three years.

 

 

 

 

yet the voter seems intent on

yet the voter seems intent on giving him that power....you just have to look a little beyond the hype at say PPPs and how they have been a disaster overseas to realise National is a tired old dog....that cant learn new tricks or even understand the old ones are rubbish....yet the voter doesnt seem to care....

regards

If JK said anything ' ' mean

If JK said anything ' ' mean ' ' about oldies then he will suffer the consequences because us oldies make up the majority of his party's support! Isn't it called ' ' biting the hand what feeds yer ' ' ???

Or the only way to keep the

Or the only way to keep the crazy few in National out of government is to back Winne?

Too late for that.

Too late for that.

We are interested in th tea

We are interested in th tea episode because it has created a small crack in the facade that is John Key and we can take a peak. That is all. We know that he has it so battened down that nothing gets out, listen  at those repeating robot statements at that press conference- now that was weird- we know it was weird. It is just interesting when the script falls apart and the actors aren't doing what they are supposed to do.

As things are, it's an

As things are, it's an entertaining mystery, with all kinds of scope for speculation and wild rumour-mongering.

If they'd just released it instead of all the drama queenery and wasting of police time, everybody would have got bored and forgotten about it by now.  How interesting could the contents actually be, coming from a public event like that.

' ' drama queenery '' !!! HA

' ' drama queenery '' !!! HA HA HA!!! Good one mate!

@ GBH - ...appealing to the

@ GBH - ...appealing to the blue-rinse brigade once again ........ 

Me too. - he has the happy knack of trying to keep the buggers honest.

@ GBH - ...appealing to the

@ GBH - ...appealing to the blue-rinse brigade once again ........ 

Me too. - he has the happy knack of trying to keep the buggers honest.

As honest as himself ? ......

As honest as himself ? ...... didn't Winnie hold up a sign saying " NO " , at a press conference , when the journos were questioning him on his alleged acceptance of donations from billionaire Owen Glenn , in 2008 ........

So it's a case of redundancy;

So it's a case of redundancy; a liar telling us that another liar is a liar?

I don't understand one thing

I don't understand one thing thoug..did they really need a tape to speculate on what was discussed at the meeting ? They could have just published some stories speculating this or that might have been discussed and Key or Banks would have had to agree or refute...The meeting was primed for sabotage from all the publicity surrounding it...recipe for poisoning the Tea, so to say ab initio.

His lawyer (Winstone's) stood

His lawyer (Winstone's) stood up and said the same and has yet to be debarred - why not?

Teapot Tape Release1: JK: NZ

Teapot Tape Release1: JK: NZ Banks are in big Trouble

Banksie: Why?

JK: Well, Frazis (Westpac CEO) had his salary dropped from 5.4million to 4.5

Banksie: Guess he's on the phone to you every hour - as you promised to prop em up

JK: At least I don;t have to deal with that Fruitcake (Brash)

Banksie: Well you'll help me roll him after election

JK: This conversation is reminiscent of Sarkozy & Obama muttering about Netanyahu.

Banksie: So what do I get after 26Nov

JK: Well, you can't get Ministry of SmilingWaving -that's mine

Banksie: How about M of Police? .... to be continued .... [Police @ the door)

Storm-in-a-tea-cup Tape :

Storm-in-a-tea-cup Tape : Gummy release :

John : Hello John .

John : Oh , hello John .

John : All going well in the election campaign ?

John : Yes , thanks . All going well for you ?

John : Oh yes . I think that it's all in the bag .

It's not the climate that's

It's not the climate that's causing you to sweat now, is it GBH?

There must be a reason for Key to be so determined to prevent the public release of that recording, and it has nothing to do with any "violation of his right to privacy".

And Winnie being back on the scene doesn't help Key or his "will apologise for anything they do, no matter how disgusting" fans such as yourself.

As has been explained above, John Key and National orchestrated a media circus in full view of everyone, but are now crying foul because they're afraid that the dumb things said by him and Banks at that public self-promotional event will actually become public.

I think that you're confused

I think that you're confused : I've not voted National since 2005 , and they won't be getting a tick from me this time , either . Neither Jolly Kid nor Phil Goof have a sensible set of economic policies . Both a gonna borrow , and both are going to pray that Treasury's optimistic growth forecasts come true , for once .

....... the point of the tape is not the content . The issue is that it was done illegally ....... and frankly I'm not surprised , the media in this country are buffoons of bad behaviour .

Having said that , the orchestrated tea ceremony was ridiculous , why didn't National just remove their candidate from the Epsom electorate , and leave it to John Banks & David Parker , to slug it out  ?

I do hope that the Nat's go under 50 % in the polls , then meebee we can get the last week of the campaign  back onto real issues .

.... it gives me a laugh to

.... it gives me a laugh to see what ham-fisted ideas that they and their " think tanks " have come up with , to better organise and control our sad dreary little lives .......

And in all fairness to Labour , they've been throwing their policies out left , right & centre , with gay abandon .....

.... and to Jolly Kid's credit , the Nats have since 2008 steadfastly  honoured their pledge to honour Michael Cullen's vote buying bribes of 2005 & 2008 ....... not their own policies of course , they broke their promise in 2008 not to raise GST ,... oooops !

 

GE law change tender to be

GE law change tender to be let four days following the election so the report can be ready by February - but the Minister knows nothing about it? - Yeah right!

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10767413 

 

 

.......and you forgot of

.......and you forgot of course it would spread to fields of food production.

How about that? Green and clean? And of course Monsanto has it's business then, and of course these are Hybrids, and of course all the people in NZ want this!

And of course we would have lost our only advantage: being GE free.

Studies in countries with stringend food labelling laws have shown that the customer, when having the choice between GE label or otherweise, they prefer to buy GE free food.

 

Every year thousands of

Every year thousands of people fall ill from eating organic food. And every year dozens die from eating organic food. Just this year 29 (oops strike that it was actually 37!!! according to Spiegel online)  died in Germany from eating contaminated organic food. Organic food is unsafe. It’s filthy, and covered in fungal and bacterial pathogens.

How many people have died from the GE in GE foods? Answer, None.

That is the truth and that is the facts whether you flat earth poverty loving Greenies want to hear it or not.

Got shares in Monsanto then

Got shares in Monsanto then David?

 

Conservatives polling 4.7%

Conservatives polling 4.7% now - on a par with NZ First.  Craig is polling 47% in Rodney. Might be a surprise to the media who have ignored this....