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90 seconds at 9 am: Abundant low-cost energy transforming the world; Greeks approve austerity; Japan sliding into recession; NZ$ starts at 81.7 USc

Posted in News
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Here's my summary of the key news overnight in 90 seconds at 9 am, with the world's media impressed with the latest IEA World Energy Outlook.

Two features of that report stand out: firstly, North America is at the forefront of a sweeping transformation in oil and gas production that will affect all regions of the world; and secondly, just how much thermal coal is being produced, especially in China.

The IEA also notes a similar transformative shift in global energy efficiency and that is supressing demand along with the recession in Europe. Energy is cheap these days, ignoring the taxes we impose on it. The shift from oil to gas is also impressive.

And in related news, the EU, which has been leading the effort to impose taxes on carbon emissions, has agreed to suspend its rules that require airlines flying to and from airports in the EU to pay for those carbon emissions.

This is a significant backdown in the face of Chinese and American pressure.

Staying in Europe, the Greek parliament has approved its austerity budget, a €17 bln austerity and overhaul package for the next four years.

This now puts the Troika on the spot to come up with the funds, and much more if they agree to a two year extension being talked about in negotiations.

In Japan, after a strong performance earlier this year, economic output dropped in the third quarter as the reconstruction boom that followed the natural disasters in 2011 slowed. Japan is tip-toeing into recession again.

Stocks are up in late trade. The NZ dollar starts today slightly up at 81.7 USc and is at 73.2 on the TWI.

We welcome your help to improve our coverage of this issue. Any examples or experiences to relate? Any links to other news, data or research to shed more light on this? Any insight or views on what might happen next or what should happen next? Any errors to correct?

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11 Comments

Cue the insufferable

Cue the insufferable powerdownkiwi to come in and tell us how the IEA has got it all wrong.

Mark – Spot on...   Human

Mark – Spot on...
 
Human ingenuity and markets have a remarkable capacity to supply an abundance of what we need.....if only the political impediments can be dealt with.
 
On the energy front we have the remarkable entrepreneur (now 93) George P. Mitchell to thank...
 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_P._Mitchell
 
and University of Houston biography...
 
http://www.uh.edu/news-events/archive/newsroom/centerforarts/gmitchellbio.html
 
...another example .... after World War 11, Bill and Alfred Levitt figured out how to supply affordable housing. At their peak production Levitt & Sons were producing about 11,000 new affordable homes a year. 20 by lunch time and another 20 in the afternoon...
 
Levittown: Documents of an Ideal American Suburb
 
http://tigger.uic.edu/~pbhales/Levittown.html
 
Politicians and planners have spent the last few decades wrecking the industry.
 
So now we are going through the truly agonizing political process of “repairing” the political damage to the housing industry. Re learning history the hard way.
 
It would be funny, if it wasn’t so serious.
 
Hugh Pavletich
 

So you can make your

So you can make your investment(s) decision based on what PDK, I and ASPO say on this....or on we'll have heaps of oil so say...ho hum...
Whats the problem with deciding that based on the 2 sides presented?  You and others now have the total picture, you can invest wisely cant you?
regards

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/fi

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/oilandgas/9665674/Shale-oil-will-change-global-supply-Opec-admits.html
 
What would be OPECs angle on the above? Why would they state a position at all? 

A get out clause maybe.  Its

A get out clause maybe. 
Its a beut of a side step if so....the US oil industry can now carry the can when things go wrong....
"Opec cut its forecast for demand for its own crude supplies, while forecasting that non-Opec oil supply would grow significantly.

Between 2011 and 2016 non-Opec liquids supply would be boosted by increased output “mainly from shale oil in the US, Canadian oil sands, and crude oil from the Caspian and Brazil”
Or is it saying that as expected by peak oilists OPEC's output will fall in this time frame, but thats OK as the US etc will make that up.  If it doesnt make that up, well OPEC will claim it "cut back" on drilling because of the expected competition.
regards

 

David, like oil was less than

David, like oil was less than $20 USD a barral, like less than 10 years ago and like its now its like averaging $90 and the whole world is in recession like so why do you like think its cheap chew chew
Anf like the gas that everyone changing to is like the scum off ther top of old oil fields ("gas caps" is what they call them its a blast) and this is a good thing?
Can I ask you a question like? In the end of Thelma and Louise, do you like think their car flew away?
 
 

Cue people with little

Cue people with little scientific or geological understanding touting that USA is about to become the next saudi arabia.
 
This graph of past IEA oil production predictions is worth looking at, perhaps a little over-optimistic?
 
http://ronyissar.files.wordpress.com/2011/09/iea-world-oil-projections-2...
 

smoke and mirrors come to

smoke and mirrors come to mind.
“Over the period 2011–2016, OECD oil demand declines each year, having peaked in 2005,” it said.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/oilandgas/9665674...
Interesting....so its not that they cant supply it its that no one wants it or actually can afford it at $90USD....so $90USD is the new normal.
regards
 
 

"This report has taken a

"This report has taken a worst-case scenario - a Wellington Fault rupture measuring 7.5 on the Richter scale,'' Ms Wilde said.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10847023
"worst case"...rubbish....8.5 and shallow would be worst case!
Since the 1855 jolt, the wgtn region has moved in two directions...up and in....18 inches!...go figure

Someone should ask her what

Someone should ask her what the design is for the Ministry of Health building is....I think its designed to see a 8.7? and still be totally or substantially functional.
Of course if there is no food or water coming in, or deisel for its generators for weeks of running its somewhat moot.
regards

Yep, no quantification of

Yep, no quantification of depth in the article.