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90 seconds at 9 am: US stocks down as Fiscal Cliff countdown begins without solution near; Greek talks drag on; Quake strengthening could cost NZ$100 bln; Canada's Carney new Bank of England Governor

90 seconds at 9 am: US stocks down as Fiscal Cliff countdown begins without solution near; Greek talks drag on; Quake strengthening could cost NZ$100 bln; Canada's Carney new Bank of England Governor

Here's my summary of the key news overnight in 90 seconds at 9 am, including news US stocks were down around 0.5% in late trade as market attention returned to the unsolved problem of the Fiscal Cliff.

The Congressional Budget Office has said if the US government steps off the Fiscal Cliff on January 1 it would force the world's largest economy back into recession and increase US unemployment to 9% as automatic tax hikes and spending cuts worth 4% of GDP kick in.

Democrats, who control the Presidency and the Senate, want to increase taxes on higher income earners, while Republicans, who control the House of Representatives, want no tax hikes and want to cut spending on welfare. After weeks of talks they appear no closer to a solution. Many businesses have warned they are holding off on investment and hiring until the Fiscal Cliff is resolved, or at least post-poned. See more here in this Bloomberg piece about bond investors worried about growth.

The New Zealand dollar fell slightly to 81.2 USc in tune with appetites for risk. New Zealand wholesale interest rates fell slightly yesterday as concerns grow about the Fiscal Cliff slowing growth globally. See more here in BNZ's Kymberley Martin's bonds report on our site.

European stocks also fell overnight as the debate over how to provide debt relief for Greece drags on. The Germans are opposed to any form of debt restructuring that involves haircuts, so the European Central Bank is now considering other ways of providing relief, including extending the terms of loans, recycling profits from the bonds and allowing Greek government buy backs. However, the IMF is holding firm, arguing for real debt relief. See more here at Bloomberg.

Meanwhile, the Bank of England appointed the Bank of Canada's Governor Mark Carney as its new Governor in a shock decision designed to bring in a 'clean skin' untainted by the scandals of the last 5 years in the City of London. See more here at Bloomberg.

Closer to home, NZHerald reports that Queen City Law has estimated earthquake restrengthening work on commercial buildings around New Zealand could cost NZ$100 billion, or more than 10 times the cost of leaky buildings.

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12 Comments

Re: Earthquake proof buildings - Some landlords will ignore the extra costs, and as a result, if an earthquake hits, people will die. This will need to be very strictly enforced.

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Quite right Muppet king...a whole new arm to govt staffed by thousands of officials, all of whom could justify salaries in excess of $150000pa and senior bosses of course who must take home a half million each...what say you Muppet King...shall we go for gst at 50%, death duties, capital gains tax at 90%, double the RUCs, paye increase across the board at 25%...

Nothing like a call to prevent people dying....gone will be the need to recognise a shite 'building' and in comes dependence on the experts in the new fangdangled EQS....Earth Quake Standards

No need to boost the civil law side of things..you know...punitive damages for causing death or injury...not with ACC to protect.

Anyone likely to be punnished for the chch deaths.....anyone!

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The thing to remember is that no one in Chch died in a building over 5 stories high.

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Not quite.  CTV was 6 stories.

 

Lichfield St Carpark extension/Ballantynes was 6 levels and one person was killed by a falling spandrel.

 

People easily could have been killed in the Forsyth Barr stairwell collapse, except for the grace of god.  Same at the Hotel Grand Chancellor.

 

Grenadier House on Madras St collapsed on June 13 while unoccupied.  6 levels including basement.

 

It's true that taller buildings have longer harmonic periods, however that won't stop inadequate 20 storey buildings in Wellington collapsing...

 

 

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No such thing as 'earthquake-proof', I'm afraid.

 

Dinnae ferget that the February quake in Chch had vertical accelerations of 2.28g, and a pure vertical uplift near Heathcote of around 40cm.

 

Poomph!

 

Now it Is possible to design buildings that will fail gracefully (preserving life within to a large extent) during such an event.  But that don't mean that such a building, after such an event, will be usable, either.

 

Spread the cost over a reasonable period (most commercial buildings turn over 3-4 times per century, anyway) and you'll find that natural attrition will take care of things.  Plus the odd base isolation retrofit for stuff like public buildings which don't turn over that way (just get more and more outmoded...see Stewart Brand 'How Buildings Learn' for the classic characterisation here).

 

QC Law is just looking forward to some ticket-clipping here....talking their book, IMHO.

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Yes "Eathquake proof" should of course be "Earthquake resistant" the power of words, similarly "Global warming" was never a good choice, non-scientists thought it would just be warmer.

One of the famous ones was GRID (the pre cursor acronym for AIDS), "Gay related Immune deficiency",

I now realise that as a Hawkes Bay boy why Napier  and Hastings don't have tall buildings

 

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My daughter works in London for a large clothing retailer. She just sent me a copy of an email sent out to all workers, telling them that sales are poor the pre X-mass sales targets have been missed and  hours were being cut back and there will be job losses, big meeting Wednesday.

  Wow  just before Xmas and sales are down with job losses, gotta be tough in the UK.  She is staying with a friend of the family and the family in the house along side has built 3 floors under ground and the bottom one is a full size ball room, some have done well, Nigerian I think.

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A full sized ball room??

 

Are they having waltzes down there?

 

 

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The Ballroom will have to double as a sunken pool when London cops a tidal surge and massive low pressure system at the time of a super tide....should be fun....bet they didn't get consent!

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A friend just told me that Retail in Hawkes bay is back 24.5%. Does that mean you guys are in recession?

 

Found it 

http://www.hawkesbaytoday.co.nz/news/optimism-despite-less-spending/162…

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