National jumps in poll

Roy Morgan poll shows support for National rises 6% and Labour and the Greens both fall after the release of their power policy

3rd May 13, 10:09am by David Hargreaves

The first major opinion poll to be released taking some account of the impact of the Labour/Green power policy has seen the ruling National Party jump 6% in support while Labour and the Greens have collectively fallen by roughly the same amount.

The Labour/Green proposal to create a single power buyer with the aim of reducing power bills was launched on April 18.

The latest Roy Morgan Poll surveyed 877 electors by telephone between April 15 and 28, although there is no break-down of how many of those were actually contacted prior to the release of the Labour/Green policy.

The result of the poll is a substantial gain in support for Prime Minister John Key’s National Party to 46.5% (up 6% since April 1-14, 2013).

However, support for Key’s Coalition partners remains low with the Maori Party 1.5% (down 0.5%), ACT NZ 0.5% (unchanged) and United Future 0.5% (unchanged).

But on the other side of the fence, support for Labour is 31.5% (down 4%); Greens are 11% (down 2.5%), New Zealand First 4.5% (down 0.5%), Mana Party 1% (up 0.5%), Conservative Party of NZ 2% (up 0.5%) and Others 1% (up 0.5%).

Despite the strong rise in support for National, if an election were held now this New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows that it would be too close to call.

However, in further good news for the Government the latest NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is up 4.5pts to 120.5 with 54.5% (up 3%) of New Zealanders saying New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared with 34% (down 1.5%) that say NZ is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

Roy Morgan executive chairman Gary Morgan said that though National had substantially increased its vote, the low support for governing Coalition partners the Maori Party, ACT NZ and United Future meant a combined Labour/ Greens/ New Zealand First coalition remained "a good chance of forming Government after the next New Zealand Election — due late next year”.

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27 Comments

by Stephen Hulme | 3rd May 13, 10:28am 1367533730

And yet it seems as though those purporting to support the MoM energy partial privatisation deal didn't turn up to the party either.

A veteran investment banker is confident more than 100,000 investors will have lined up to buy shares in Mighty River Power, saying the process was not unusual for a major float apart from the political profile.

The first of a series of planned partial-sales of state-owned enterprises, the offer period for Mighty River Power closes at 5pm today.

More than 440,000 prospective investors pre-registered for shares which created no obligation to buy. Read article

by Boatman | 3rd May 13, 12:48pm 1367542084

Yes, I said it last week, Labour & Greens are all wind and no substance . First it was brand new 3 bedroomed houses for all in Auckland at $300,000 ( the current the cost of an Auckland section) , now they are offerring me a $300 reduction in my annual power bill which is free electricity for 3 months in our case.

I, like most , have a suspicion they cannot deliver on these promises .

by Stephen Hulme | 3rd May 13, 1:19pm 1367543987

now they are offerring me a $300 reduction in my annual power bill which is free electricity for 3 months in our case.

LoL - do you live in a tent and wash your clothes at a laundry?- the MoM energy partial privatisation scheme would never have got under way if we were all as frugal - no profits to discount.or GST to fund the share bookies.

My entitled neighbour shells out $1600.00 a month.

by Boatman | 3rd May 13, 4:11pm 1367554262

No tent mate , we are on the low domestic consumption plan with Genesis , we are a family of five in a five bedroomed house , we spend between $89 and $112 a month on electricity and about $97 a month on gas for hot water and cooking .

We have three tvs, a dishwasher , an oven ( not used much ) a microwave , we use a cold water washing machine and dont use the tumble drier . All the lights are power saver type bulbs .

This goes up by about $40 in winter

So our power bill averages was $1398 over the past 12 months an aveage of $116,50 and if we get $300 of its 3 months free power

BTW , your neighbour is nuts

by Stephen Hulme | 3rd May 13, 4:31pm 1367555486

BTW , your neighbour is nuts

He and his family think otherwise - managing the indoor/outdoor flow of the swimming pool complex requires attention to detail of the kind only money can buy.

by Casual Observer | 3rd May 13, 1:45pm 1367545505

Is the $300 including or excluding any current on time/direct debit discount received? I get more than $300pa as a discount now, so unless the $300 is worked out after current discounts I am better off staying as I am.

by Boatman | 3rd May 13, 4:12pm 1367554378

Precisely , the discount we receive if we pay promptly is around $10 to $15 per month which is almost half of what labour is offering over the year

by Hamish | 3rd May 13, 4:33pm 1367555620

Right at the start when Labour and Greens came out I thought good fighting talk. Then they had to go spoil it talking details. I recall reading something about creating a few thousand jobs AND saving several hundred million annually. Umm......

by dh | 3rd May 13, 12:56pm 1367542602

National up, the major (above 5%) parties but National down (the only non-National ones that weren't down were so deeply towards the margin of error that they should be ignored). I tend to agree with Roy Morgan's own write-up decribing it as the post-Gay Marraige poll, as that was much closer to the start of the polling period than the Labour/Greens announcement.

More numerically, Roy Morgan's differences between polls for the major parties between polls seem to fairly often exceed the 95% confidence intervals on the results of each of the single polls either side of the period (as in the last on outside the movement is outside the confidence interval range of both polls). This could either be read as a volatile electorate (that there are significant changes in party support every couple of weeks), or that there is more uncertainty systemic issues (data collection issues etc).

by Brendon | 3rd May 13, 1:27pm 1367544450

I think this polling company is prone to eratic movements in its results. Just look at the graph. So we cannot get too excited/upset about this one off result. Once we get more polls and a series of results then we can gauge the popularity or not of Labour/Greens policies.

by Matt in Auck | 3rd May 13, 1:07pm 1367543227

House prices up, national party support up...coincidence?

by Stephen Hulme | 3rd May 13, 2:59pm 1367549951

Not so sure - this inflammatory article by Mai Chen in the NZ Herald reeks of a recipe to set the seeds of civil war in motion - is the nation beginning to align along polarized lines of strong traditional opinion in these matters given that Winston remains in the wilderness, despite his prescient prior warnings about the foolhardyness of not defining a universal NZer.

by iconoclast | 3rd May 13, 3:36pm 1367552209

Interesting thought there Stephen Hulme - as I follow the daily meanderings around here, it has often occurred to me try and discover a defining of what it means to be a "new zealander" and what new zealand as a country means to those who post here. That could be extended to what it means to be an Aucklander and what Auckland means to them. There are some who treasure their origins, their beginnings, their heritage. Many of the posts that appear here do not reflect such values.

by iconoclast | 3rd May 13, 3:32pm 1367551961

The article by Mai Chen demonstrates a shift in the balance. It's happening.

by Kate | 3rd May 13, 7:06pm 1367564760

She's talking up the book :-).

What I find interesting is that few commentators question why this burgeoning Maori economy isn't improving the lot for their people. Willie Jackson is about the only chap who raises this.

Where are the iwi-run soup kitchens, homeless shelters, food for schools programs etc.?

by OMG_WTF | 3rd May 13, 2:18pm 1367547485

Am I correct in assuming all these pollsters call only landlines? And therefore their results are skewed towards National? Remember their polls showing overwheming support for National at the last election, and National barely squeeked in because supporters of other parties thought it was a foregone conclusion and did not vote?

If this is so, of course all those chomping at the bit to grab MRP shares to rip off the country would be negative to Labour/Greens after their brilliant policy announcement.

by dh | 3rd May 13, 2:42pm 1367548966

Yes and No. Polls do only call landlines (farmed out to interviews in the local call zone as a work from home option was the traditional practice, I don't know ifthis is still standard as it is a while since I was involved). The first questions they normally ask are some demographic ones because they are trying to balance up the kind of people they are getting in order tyo match what they think the general population would be like on the issue. If you get rung at the end of the polling period and they have gotten their sample of whatever group by the info you are measuring, they may exclude questions you would have been asked earlier or just thank you and leave it at that.

So the polling companies try to match to the general population, but the mechanics of doing so are not something normally reported. That said it is in the commercial interests of polling companies to have a reputation for accurately reflecting reality, so they are genuinely trying to get a representative result. Their weightings are a matter of arguement.

The exceptions tend to be the push-polling ones designed by companies or parties to get a a particular result for rhetorical purposes (the one's that lead with some emotive questions to prime you for the question they are pushing). A classic sign of a poll that is bogus in this way is that they will not reveal the exact questions (or all the questions) asked. The Roy Morgan poll seems innocent of this.

by waymad | 3rd May 13, 4:42pm 1367556128

As a confirmed MRP investor, I can offer my succinct reply:

Rtaher than having MRP pay a divvy to the Gummint, who promptly wastes it in ways I don't necessarily agree with or vote for, I aim to divert part of said divvy to my Own Pocket, where I am in full control of the subsequent wastage.

Cutting out the economic deadweight.

Oooh! Gosh, I;m feeling all Virtuous!

by waymad | 3rd May 13, 4:38pm 1367555917

Using Occam's Razor, an explanation that seems to have escaped the common taters is that, in voter's perceptions, Labour and Greens are now joined at the hip.

Vote Labour, get free Greens!

by dh | 3rd May 13, 5:03pm 1367557424

Nope. If you assumed Labour/ Greens were joined at the hip then there polls would move in unison. If you analyse all the polls the movement suggests three separate blocks (which is why National has toyed occasionally with the bluegreen idea). This actually matches the voting records (if you group by party voting the greens are actually further from National and Labour than National and Labour are from each other).

by steven | 5th May 13, 9:49am 1367704161

I do like free things...like Linux.

Maybe it hasnt escaped them but a one night stand doesnt mean wedding ring, or maybe it just doesnt exist because its wishful thinking on your part.

Greens hold 11% ish, its not unreasonable for anyone with an IQ greater than 90 to see that the Green's are the third biggest party and hence should have some influence in the next Government. The maori party next time would be hard pushed with its voters to go with National again. National winning a third term? the asset sales look to be a NET vote loser for them. Personally i think the commie retoric is farcical, especially when you look at National's fanatical stance on asset sales in that context. Also of course PPPs which have been either at best so so or an aject failure elsewhere. ie I dont think ppl, or enough ppl anyway are that dumb....

Lets look at whats going great for National.....oh....um...uh hmmm.....unemployment down? nope, any hope of that in 18months? nope. A balanced budget? well yes maybe, but really that fixation is almost fanatical as well. Natioanl's minitsers like bungling Brownlee? Or National's denial of AGW while the evidence is really substanive enough that denialists are looking somewhat fringe...

National has really i think shown its 1980s colours and badly in the last 6 months imho....its losing the election, almost by itself.

regards

by Gibber | 3rd May 13, 7:30pm 1367566220

Maybe if the Crafar farms had been sold to Harvard, then National might be even further ahead.

by Andrew R | 4th May 13, 5:41pm 1367646077

Don't get excited over one poll. Look at the trends from all the polls. The trend is National declining, Labour and Greens trending up.

by dh | 4th May 13, 11:00pm 1367665229

To put some hard numbers on it, comparing a line of best fit from Roy Morgan polls since the last election a) excluding the latest poll [the long term trend before the poll] b) including the latest poll [the long term trend after], we can say that on the 29th of April National can be expected to

a) be on a figure somewhere near 43.76% declining at a rate of 0.006% per day

b) be on a figure somewhere near 44.12% declining at a rate of 0.005% per day

That said, the data is noisy and all the statistical tests are warning me not to read to much into individual entries (this latest poll was also the biggest movement in popularity since the election, both in absolute terms and in relation to the long term trend line, which suggests it is more likely to be an outlier, but we will see in a few weeks).

by steven | 5th May 13, 10:02am 1367704946

What we should do is take all the available 3 year "lumps" and see if there are trends that predict a winner or not.

Interesting that leading up to JK's last win we see 52~53%, this time around at best 46%.....6% down with a trend down doesnt look good for him. The next two polls will be of great interest.

I dont know what to make of the Green's gain, when some of the hard core lefties left it seems to have done them good in the polls. Yet their gains seem to be at the expense of labour, what a mixed message..

regards

by dh | 5th May 13, 1:58pm 1367719082

The general NZ pattern is a government has to be seen as pretty incompetent to only get one term, and be seen as pretty competent to get a third.

That said, with National's support of electorate based parties of allies (and it has been a good plan for them, adding parliamentary support without reducing their national support), and given the current personalities, if they are over about 42% at the next election they will probably be able to lead a government as part of a National/ NZ First/ Conservative/ Maori Party/ Act/ United Future coalition. If National's support is in the 43-48% then I'd say, regardless of who forms the government, NZ First will be in the position of King-maker.

by Stephen L | 5th May 13, 4:06pm 1367726817

dh,

Fair summary it seems to me.

Winston's positions seem now far more consistent with Labour and the Greens; notably on asset sales and the Reserve Bank Act; while Labour and the Greens are unlikely to threaten pensioners (nor are the Nats, to be fair) so you would have to assume NZF would be Labour's to lose as the first default.

It's difficult to see Act surviving ( I live in the Epsom electorate, and I suspect it is now hard to find people who admit to voting for Banks). An alternative may pop up, but would risk splitting any vote. The Maoris- whichever party or parties- may well side with whichever side is largest.

So National would likely need closer to the 48, even 49% to hold on. Will leave to their supporters to decide whether they think that is likely.