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US consumer spending falls in July; sentiment rises in August; ECB and EU leaders disagree on fiscal policy; China clamps down on Hong Kong; NZ$1 = US$0.83.6, TWI = 78.9

US consumer spending falls in July; sentiment rises in August; ECB and EU leaders disagree on fiscal policy; China clamps down on Hong Kong; NZ$1 = US$0.83.6, TWI = 78.9

Here's my summary of the key news over the weekend in 90 seconds at 9 am, including news of economies struggling to grow.

American consumer spending unexpectedly fell in July. But their savings rose to their highest level in more than 1½ years, a sign that their households remain cautious despite an acceleration in economic and jobs growth.

Economists had expected consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of US economic activity, to increase +0.2% in July. But when adjusted for inflation, it has slipped -0.2% after gaining +0.2% in June.

But later data seems to be better. The widely respected University of Michigan survey of consumer sentiment came in at 82.5, a bounce back and its highest level since April. Today's number exceeded market expectations.

News and market activity will be light today and tomorrow because it is a major public holiday in the US, the Labor Day weekend which marks the end of their summer holidays. Full market volumes should return soon.

Across the Atlantic, there is a new tension in the euro-zone, on top of Russia's Ukraine adventure. Both German and French ministers are unhappy that the ECB boss wants them to do more to reinvigorate their economies. But the focus will be back on him on Friday (NZ time) when the ECB announces its latest policy changes. There are growing expectations for him to print money.

All three major economies are struggling. Germany is faltering, France has no discipline to change, and Italy saw its economy fall by -0.2% in the June quarter and is a whisker away from sliding into recession.

A surprisingly large contraction of -0.6% in Brazil's economy between April and June, and a downward revision of the first quarter, has pushed that country into recession, latest figures show.

In Hong Kong, it was told by China that it can no longer have open elections; all the candidates must be vetted and approved by Beijing. It was a harsher-than-expected decision and may signal a clouded future for the enclave.

Also over the weekend we got data on Chinese bad bank loans which were up significantly, but from a very low base.

Yields ended last week basically unchanged with the UST 10yr benchmark bond yield close to its 2014 low at only 2.34%.

The US oil price rose marginally to just under US$96/barrel. Brent is basically unchanged at just on US$103/barrel. Surprisingly, given the geopolitical risks, gold fell in final Friday trading and is now at US$1,286/oz.

We start the week with the currency little changed from where it closed in New York on Friday. We are now just on 83.6 USc, 89.5 AUc, and the TWI is at 78.9.

If you want to catch up with all the changes on Friday we have an update here.

The easiest place to stay up with today's event risk is by following our Economic Calendar here »

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