Here's my summary of the key events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news that a Trump stench is wafting over markets with less than a week to go in the US presidential elections.
Recent tight US election polls has sent shivers through financial markets today. The S&P500 is near a 4 month low. Trying to figure out what drives the stupidity of the Trump support is secondary to the fact of a tight race. Volatility is rising. If the unthinkable happens, everyone will be hurt, (especially those voting for Trump). Those that can are making plans. And that affects us directly. Our long term wholesale rates are rising while those for others are falling as fear sets in. Our currency is rising while those for others are falling. What used to be our Achilles heal - our geographic isolation - is now an advantage, and a suddenly large one. It doesn't hurt that our economy is doing very well too.
In China, strong September railway freight volumes underpin a resurgence in the Middle Kingdom. China has restarted its old growth engines of investment and export-led growth. October PMI data suggest this trend is set to continue. Both manufacturing PMI measures registered the highest reading since July 2014. However, Chinese policymakers' decision to 'double down' on investment will only worsen their existing debt problem and store up further problems for the future. According to the BIS, China's ratio of private debt-to-GDP is already over 209% and growing at an eye-popping rate. For perspective the same data shows New Zealand at almost 176%, but our's is stable and in a longer trend decline. Australia is at 208% and rising quite quickly too.
The latest US Fed meeting held their policy rates steady as expected, and they sent new hints they expect to raise rates in December at their final scheduled meeting of 2016.
In New York, the UST 10yr yield is down today by -2 bp today to 1.80%. These markets are signaling 'risk-off'.
The US benchmark oil price is down again - today by more than -US$1.50, and is now just over US$45 a barrel, while the Brent benchmark is under US$46.50 a barrel. The sharp drop came as weekly American inventory data revealed the largest weekly increase in crude-oil stockpiles in 34 years of data collected by the US EIA. This price drop will make Russia and other oil exporters very jittery and unstable.
The gold price higher however, up +US$17 and now at US$1,306/oz.
The New Zealand dollar is sharply higher this morning, now at 73 US¢. On the cross rates it is now up at 95.2 AU¢, and against the euro at 65.7 euro cents. The NZ TWI-5 index is at 76.7. This is a 55 day high.
If you want to catch up with all the local changes yesterday, we have an update here.
The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».
We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment
Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.