US debt limit pressure grows; fraud crimps SWIFT; huge German tax swindle; China targets Aussie news media for "mutual respect"; HNA bites back at fraud claim; UST 10yr yield 2.20%; oil up but gold drops; NZ$1 = 72.1 US¢, TWI-5 = 76.4

Here's my summary of the key events from over the weekend that affect New Zealand, with news of a huge tax swindle in Germany.

But first in the US, Congress is being asked to increase their debt ceiling, and it is unsure they will do it. The limit stands at just under US$20 tln, a bit over 100% of US GDP. It actually reached the self-imposed limit in March, but creative accounting will keep the Federal government functioning until mid August sometime. But analysts are increasing uncertain the limit will actually be raised and that will creature either a spending crunch or a reputation hit on US Treasuries.

In Europe, international payment platform SWIFT reported a sharp drop in profit as a direct result of the large cyber crime event that resulted in fraud and losses that victimised the Bangladeshi central bank last year, probably by North Korea. Despite this, traffic increased on the network last year, hitting an all time monthly peak of over 30 million messages.

In Germany, a low ranking official in their tax office has stumbled on a huge tax swindle - may be as much as €32 bln in taxes have been avoided by a group of bankers, lawyers and stockbrokers who have used the City of London as a tax haven to sanitise transactions to eliminate taxes payable on a huge number of transactions. It could be Germany's largest tax fraud ever.

We have been reporting on the grip China tries to exert on its expats, including those in this part of the world. They are using money to exert influence on political parties as well. Now, they are extending that influence with lucrative 'news' deals, with the likes of Sky News, Fairfax and the Australian Broadcasting Corporation. By paying-to-play, the Chinese goal is to ensure that the Australian and Chinese media should adhere to principles of "mutual respect" and "win-win cooperation". It is the same strategy Moscow uses to get its RT channel on subscriber news platforms. But the Chinese are far more along with their strategy here.

And it never pays to be a whistleblower in China. The State will come after you with both barrels. Especially if you challenge those at the top of their power structure, and especially if you were one of them. In this case, the accusations have been leveled at HNA Group and the way they wield influence (and corruption) in Beijing. Of course, HNA denies any wrongdoing.

In Australia, it is a public holiday today, and that will accentuate the usual thin markets we often see on Mondays.

And the Aussie tax authorities are now saying their recent CGT changes targeted at foreigners will also catch Aussie expats. “In some cases an Australian citizen who lives outside Australia may not be a resident for Australian tax purposes, particularly if they have been living outside Australia for an extended period,” a spokesperson said. “In these cases, the Australian citizen may be a foreign investor for the purposes of these provisions and will not be granted a clearance certificate from the ATO if they apply. They will then have tax withheld on the sale of their property.” (This item has been added to the originally published story.)

In New York, the UST 10yr yield is a little higher at 2.20%.

The price of oil is is marginally higher after last weeks big falls with the US crude benchmark is now just under US$46 a barrel, while the Brent benchmark is now under US$48.50. The US rig count is up yet again and that activity is mirrored internationally.

The price of gold will start the week much lower, now at US$1,266/oz, a further US$13 fall.

The Kiwi dollar is holding at 72.1 USc. On the cross rates we are at 95.8 AU¢, and 64.4 euro cents. The TWI-5 index is now at 76.4.

If you want to catch up with all the changes on Friday, we have an update here.

The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».