Here's my Top 10 links from around the Internet at 2 pm in association with NZ Mint.
I welcome your additions in the comments below or via email tobernard.hickey@interest.co.nz.
I'll pop the extras into the comment stream. See all previous Top 10s here.
There is a distinctly European flavour and pungency to today's Top 10.
1. A new phase in the crisis - It's hard to under-estimate the importance of the failure of the German government bond auction overnight.
The European sovereign debt crisis has now spread to a place no one ever thought it would go: Germany.
This says investors both within and outside Europe are so nervous about European sovereign debt and the continent's banking system they won't or can't even buy its safest debt.
The fact the Bundesbank had to step in to buy the bonds is devastating for market confidence.
We are in a dangerous place now.
Yet no one is talking about it on the campaign trail.
New Zealand may well wake up on Monday morning to a government about to do things it gave no indication it would do before the election.
Ready for that?
2. Here's John Hardy from Saxo Bank at Trading Floor with his take on the German bond auction failure:
Today’s auction failure is like a sudden crack in that market assumption of a solid foundation - potentially introducing a whole new dynamic. Today’s auction dramatically moves forward the timetable of the either/or outcome – either we get a massive new official/ECB response or this situation will quickly “go systemic”.
So now back to EU politicians, the ECB and whether we can wait for some ponderous progress toward a treaty change or the like at the Dec. 9 EU summit. Will the spirit of Maximum Intervention be able to counter the potentially vicious discipline meted out by the markets?
Stay very careful out there.
3. And here's why it's important - SMH reports Australia's banks are preparing for a freeze in global funding markets.
AUSTRALIAN banks are preparing for a potential freeze in global funding markets as Europe's worsening stresses threaten to send the world's financial markets into a tailspin. Renewed funding pressures for the big banks, which need to raise $16.3 billion over the next two months, are likely to make it tougher for business and some consumers to access credit.
Finance executives from at least two of Australia's big banks have reviewed forward funding plans. This has involved shelving scheduled raisings, with the focus to remain on ''opportunistic'' fund raisings in US and Australian capital markets.
Australia's four major banks need to refinance a total of $48 billion in bonds by June next year, according to figures prepared for BusinessDay by Deutsche Bank. Of this, $16 billion needs to be refinanced by the end of January, the figures show.
4. 'A slow motion train wreck that has gone viral and global' - That's Nouriel Roubini's view here at Yahoo, despite the announcement by the IMF yesterday to provide new liquidity (ie cash) for the global financial system.
But "money alone is not going to resolve the problems" in Europe, where the "contagion is spreading" far beyond the so-called periphery, according to New York economics professor Nouriel Roubini. "The contagion has now gone viral, cross Atlantic and global."
In Europe, the problems of Greece, Italy and Portugal have now spread to Italy, Spain and beyond. "Most ominously," Roubini notes, credit spreads are widening on the sovereign debts of France and Belgian among other "core" nations. In addition, there are acute signs of stress in interbank lending such as LIBOR and the TED spread while many European banks are facing a shortage of dollars.
"It's a slow-motion train wreck," the famed economist says.
5. Eurostress is building - The Telegraph reports British insurers are protesting over bank plans to force them to take 'coercive' bond exchanges. This could lead to a bond buying strike, just when banks need to roll over masses of debt.
Barclays Capital analysts reckon Europe's banks must sell about €800bn (£689bn) of new bonds next year, or about €50bn to €70bn every month. However, the eurozone crisis has led bank issuance to come to a virtual halt since May, creating a huge backlog of debt that needs to be refinanced.
Large insurance groups and other debt investors have been angered by multi-billion euro bond exchange programmes launched this month by lenders including Banco Santander and BNP Paribas.
Bondholders are say the terms of the exchanges represent a transfer of value from debt investors to bank shareholders, making them more wary about buying new issues from banks.
Analysts at Societe Generale have estimated that Santander's €6.8bn offer to exchange Lower Tier 2 debt for new senior unsecured bonds could result in the bank making a Tier 1 capital gain of about €640m, which it could potentially book as a fourth-quarter profit.
6. ECB the only one lending - CNBC reports the only bank lending to Europe's banks right now is the European Central Bank.
The ECB's weekly, limit-free handout of funding underscored the widespread problems, with 178 banks requesting 247 billion euros, the highest amount since mid-2009.
Commerzbank may need considerably more capital than previously expected to meet a targeted 9 percent core capital buffer by mid-2012 as demanded by the European Union's banking watchdog, the European Banking Authority (EBA), several persons close to the bank told Reuters.
Just as fears about the financial health of Italy and Spain have stopped banks lending to some their peers, U.S. funds have also continued to retreat from the region, and Italian and Spanish banks have seen corporate deposits flow out to safer havens. U.S. money market funds, which are key providers of liquidity to banks and have been pulling back from the euro zone since May, cut their exposure to European banks by a further 9 percent in October, according to ratings agency Fitch.
Bankers said there appeared little chance of wholesale funding markets reopening for euro zone banks this year, and the best that can be hoped is for a return to more normal conditions early in 2012.
7. 'The Chinese banking system is built on quicksand' - Hedge fund manager Jim Chanos warns in this Bloomberg interview about the weakness in the Chinese banking system and the fallout on Australia. HT Hugh via email.
8. China starting to ease - Bloomberg reports that China's central bank has eased its reserve requirements for 20 rural cooperative banks.
The drums are beating in China for something more substantial as exports to Europe in particular take a dangerously Lehman-esque path.
The move reduces the percentage of deposits that the cooperatives are required to park with the central bank to 16 percent, a “normalization” after an increase a year ago, the People’s Bank of China’s Hangzhou branch said in an e-mailed statement yesterday. The central bank gave no indication whether it may cut reserve requirements for the largest commercial banks, a step that Bank of America Merrill Lynch predicts may come in January.
Yesterday’s decision follows a pledge by Premier Wen Jiabao’s government to implement more “forward looking” and flexible monetary policy as the global economy struggles to sustain its recovery. With prospects for Chinese export demand slipping, a preliminary manufacturing purchasing manager index for November fell to its lowest level since 2009.
“The unexpectedly sharp drop in China’s flash PMI for November, if corroborated by other indicators, is likely to push policy makers to go beyond policy ‘fine-tuning’ to outright easing,” said Mark Williams, a London-based Asia economist at Capital Economics Ltd. “Confirmation that the People’s Bank has lowered reserve requirements for some banks is likely to be only the start.”
9. Totally irrelevant but fun video from the New York Times about 'Umbrella Man', the man who stood with an umbrella near Deely Plaza on the fine day in 1963 when JFK was shot.
HT David via email.
10. Totally Stephen Colbert with 'The Word' on The Super Committee's failure.
"Their later is our now."
"The tough medicine will be delivered rectally"
This one is interesting because Colbert is actually angry. Funny and sobering.
The Colbert Report
Get More: Colbert Report Full Episodes,Political Humor & Satire Blog,Video Archive
63 Comments
Not 4 weeks, more like 4 days.
How much money have we front loaded in NZ Govn bonds? 3 months? 6months?
By the time that runs out we will have to have a balanced budget and/or the markets have to be open again...simple......hacking the Govn spend though will be highly negative in effect.....consumer spending will simply collapse and so will the Govn's tax income...it will become a neg self full-filling downward spiral....
Spanish bonds are 6.6%, italian 7.1, Begium 4.6%.......its now run away from the EU Govn's....the lender of last resort is the ECB.....all it can do is print.....
and our banks? they have to roll over huge short term debt, debt linked to mortgages on houses and farms by and large...
If they cant get re-financing they go broke....bankrupt....
Right now the consideration is whether to start running from banks....ie with drawing your money and hiding it under the bed.
regards
Black budget mandalay.
1. If Goofy gets in, he will increase direct taxes to cover promises from Greens/NZF. The rich pricks will get screwed along with middle classes.
2. If Key wins we will start to lose int free loans/WWF to claw back Cullen's unfunded promises. Middle class gets screwed along with lower class.
I am voting for scenario 2. Go National.
A story for you Mandalay, while you await a reply:
Apols if already posted. Just found its way to me yesterday:
The ANT AND THE GRASSHOPPER This one is a little different ........Two Different Versions – Old and New ......
There are Different Morals
OLD VERSION:
The ant works hard in the withering heat all summer long, building his house and
laying up supplies for the winter.
The grasshopper thinks the ant is a fool and laughs and dances and plays the summer away.
Come winter, the ant is warm and well fed.
The grasshopper has no food or shelter,
so he dies out in the cold.
MORAL OF THE OLD STORY:
Be responsible for yourself!
MODERN VERSION:
The ant works hard in the withering heat and the rain all summer long, building his house and laying up supplies for the winter.
The grasshopper thinks the ant is a fool and laughs and dances and plays the summer away.
Come winter, the shivering grasshopper calls a press conference and demands to know why the ant should be allowed to be warm and well fed while he is cold and starving.
TV1,2 & 3 News, and Campbell Live
show up to provide pictures of the shivering grasshopper next to a video of the ant in his comfortable home with a table filled with food.
The country is stunned by the sharp contrast.
How can this be, that in a country of such wealth, this poor grasshopper is allowed to suffer so?
Sue Bradford appears on Campbell Live
with the grasshopper and everybody cries .
The Green Party stages a demonstration in front of the ant's house where the news stations film the group singing, We shall overcome.
Green Party Leader Metiriea Turei condemns the ant
and blames John Key , Rob Muldoon , Roger Douglas , Capitalism and Global warming for the grasshopper's plight.
John Minto exclaims in an interview with TV News that the ant has gotten rich off the back of the grasshopper,
and both call for an immediate tax hike on the ant to make him pay his fair share.
Finally to gain votes to win an election , the Government drafts the Economic Equity & Anti-Grasshopper Act retroactive to the beginning of the summer.
The ant is fined for failing to consider how his hard work and preparation has affected the Grasshoppers Mana and,
having nothing left to pay his retroactive taxes, his home is confiscated under the Government Land Repo Act and given to the grasshopper.
The story ends as we see the grasshopper and his free-loading friends finishing up the last bits of the ant's food while the government confiscated house he is in, which, as you recall, just happens to be the ant’s old house, crumbles around them because the grasshopper doesn't maintain it.
The ant has disappeared to Australia, never to be seen again.
The grasshopper is found dead in a Drugs related incident, and the house, now abandoned, is taken over by a gang of Homeboy spiders who terrorize the once prosperous and peaceful, neighbourhood.
MORAL OF THE STORY:
Be careful how you vote in 2011
I've sent this to you because
I believe that you are an ant!
You may wish to pass this on to other ants, but don't bother sending it on to any grasshoppers because they wouldn't understand it, anyway.
It's a good thing ants carry 100 x their own weight...
Is that so Amanda? So why would Sue Bradford, John Minto, and Metiriea Turei, stand behind reckless bankers and finance company executives, property investors, and crony corporate bosses? After all they're the ones coming forward with they're hands out, begging a piece of the government's largess, which John Key and Bill English are only too happy to oblige. Me thinks you should reconsider the characters in the story and the targets of your thinly veiled morality tale is.. And which government hiked the regressive consumption taxes and furthermore recklessly borrowed money so that they could irresponsibly give a tax cut to their mates during this term of office?
... the Conservatives??
Christian weirdos with only a slight grip on NZ history.... 'ignorant' would be a kind term for them.
a real protest vote would be (in the old days) for McGillicuddy Serious ("we have no Health policy, because under us no-one'll get sick") or the Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party.
Colin Craig and his wacky troupe are actually serious..... a bad idea for a protest vote.
Winston- trust him as far as I can throw him but at least he makes the Beehive interesting...
In Germany there's the beer drinking party. Alas no such enlightened party here. :-)
I think they also had/have a party solely focussed on promoting no speed limit on the autobahns; the number of kilometres of speed limit free motorway has been continually dwindling over the years. As they said on Top Gear - what use is Germany if there is a speed limit???
:-)
sorry Amanda but I've had to rewrite it a bit. There are 3 parties involved:
MODERN VERSION:
The ant works hard in the withering heat and the rain all summer long, building his house and laying up supplies for the winter, leaving the supplies with a Wasp for safekeeping while the Ant works.
The grasshopper thinks the ant is a fool and laughs and dances and plays the summer away. The Wasp gets together with other Wasps and starts to play a series of gambling games with the Ant’s wealth.
Come winter, the shivering grasshopper calls a press conference and demands to know why the ant should be allowed to be warm and well fed while he is cold and starving.
TV1,2 & 3 News, and Campbell Live
show up to provide pictures of the shivering grasshopper next to a video of the ant in his comfortable home with a table filled with food. Few question are asked about why the Wasp suddenly has a massive hive and a plethora of luxury items to play with during his spare time.
The country is stunned by the sharp contrast.
How can this be, that in a country of such wealth, this poor grasshopper is allowed to suffer so?
Sue Bradford appears on Campbell Live
with the grasshopper and everybody cries .
The Green Party stages a demonstration in front of the ant's house where the news stations film the group singing, We shall overcome.
Green Party Leader Metiriea Turei condemns the ant
and blames John Key , Rob Muldoon , Roger Douglas , Capitalism and Global warming for the grasshopper's plight.
John Minto exclaims in an interview with TV News that the ant has gotten rich off the back of the grasshopper,
and both call for an immediate tax hike on the ant to make him pay his fair share.
Finally to gain votes to win an election , the Government drafts the Economic Equity & Anti-Grasshopper Act retroactive to the beginning of the summer, passed under urgency because the issue is too important to go through the usual democratic process. At about this time it is revealed that the Wasp’s gambling has backfired and there is now only a fraction of the Ant’s actual wealth left, and that it is propped up with debt written against the earnings of future generations of Ants.
The ant is fined for failing to consider how his hard work and preparation has affected the Grasshoppers Mana and, due to the Wasp’s gambling losses and the redistributative fines, having nothing left to pay his retroactive taxes, his home is confiscated under the Government Land Repo Act and given to the grasshopper.
The story ends as we see the grasshopper and his free-loading friends finishing up the last bits of the ant's food while the government confiscated house he is in, which, as you recall, just happens to be the ant’s old house, crumbles around them because the grasshopper doesn't maintain it.
The ant has disappeared to Australia, never to be seen again. The Wasp has by now moved on and befriended a colony of hard-working beetles.
The grasshopper is found dead in a Drugs related incident, and the house, now abandoned, is taken over by a gang of Homeboy spiders who terrorize the once prosperous and peaceful, neighbourhood.
Thanks Amanda... firstly can you just scruntch up a piece of paper and chuck it at BH across the table and tell him to get on with answering my question....
Secondly, Ioved the Ant story,(though Sue is Mana Party with Hone) but you have missed a 3rd moral...
Ant works jolly hard to provide food and home for his family, gives money to charity (mostly to little orphan grasshoppers and little ants and little grasshoppers who are hungry), reads his little ants bedtime stories (when he manages to beat the ant traffic and get home in time), loves his ant wife and treats her with the respect and dignity she deserves.
One day the head termite (boss of the Ant Hill) decides the termites who have a whole bunch more than said Ant, (termites are bigger after all and have had the advantage of pincers and being born in the Booming Age) need to have more, lots more. So he says, "it's the ants fault they aren't bigger and don't have pincers and that they were born long after the Booming time. They should have thought about those things before being born! Or worked blood harder. As for those grasshoppers, who cares?" Because the Head Termite has a nice face all the ants, grasshoppers and termites forgive him instantly....
So head termite blanket cuts the Ant Hill levy requirements and ups the levy on ant meal. Then borrows from the Rats to pay for AntHill Levy so the termites can have more and he can be re-elected as Number One. Then Head Termite decides he's going to flick off the Ant Hill, or a large chunk of it.... even though this time termites don't have a say. But though they rub their pincers together in a loud whining noise they do nothing, head termite does after-all have a nice smiling face.
Ant worries alot about his little Ants and the other little Ants on the Ant Hill... he thinks about the grasshoppers and although he knows they are full of folly, with guidance and good leadership he knows they can learn...
The levy borrowed from the rats to pay the bribes of the termites (they need more of course, always more) will have to come at the expense of Ants little Ants, the ones he reads to at night remember (when he's not working of course). But the termites don't care, they after all own all the sub-ant hills and can sit fat on the hill, safe in the knowledge that as long as the handsome head termite is King, they will want for nothing as they will be long gone to the Hill in the Sky, by the time the Rats come a'calling!
The termites laugh at Ant as they carry Head Termite on their shoulders, turning their backs on the hard working Ant and his family. For the termites KNOW they'll be king of the Hill forever and Ant and his mates will keep coughing up more levy and Rat will keep loaning more and life will be good and plentiful...
Meanwhile above the Anthill the sky is getting darker...
Moral of the story -
Be careful who you vote for in 2011
Very good but I won't be reading the kids that for a bedtime story tonight. I have a hard enough time getting them to sleep. They have both declared their allegience to the Greens. They are 8 and 9.
I abuse Bernard plenty...as well as harrasing him about running for politics but he NEVER listens to me...
Perhaps if I start wearing Fleuvog's again and stomp my foot loudly.
Vive la revolution.
I like your story better Malarky, but Amanda's right, not one to read to the kiddies before they sleep. Likely to be looking for termites, rats, and poor oppressed ants under their beds. The moral of the story is enough to keep even adults awake at night as election day draws nearer.
Moral: Decide how you want to get shafted, do you want your taxes stolen to pay for the lazieness of others, or do you want your savings destroyed to pay for the greed of others?
Nuts if you believe voting will benefit you, unless you are a politician and voting for yourself.
BTW in aussie the ant and grasshoppers are both far better off, eveyone should go there.
Which of our many problems is likely to come fluttering home to roost first and most noisily if European funding freezes up solid?
Which potential government is best placed to react?
If the Crown cant borrow at reasonable yields offshore what will it do?
Does the Reserve Bank have the balance sheet to keep our banks operating?
Will NZ inc get another downgrade because our growth prospects have nosedived?
Will an incoming government slash spending in line with lower growth and revenue forecasts and will this make things better or worse?
Would a national led Government proceed with Asset sales into a weak equity market or would they ( or any other Government ) be forced to dump assets at any price to raise cash to pay for Groceries.
These and many other questions may well be answered soon. I do think a Government overwhelmingly dominated by National would be mch more cohesive and probably responsible than one comprising lots of parties with wildly different agendas and possibly depending on the votes Winston has bought into the house. Good luck with that.
This is a King canute moment...look to Lehman.....there is enough comments on what would have happened if Govn's hadnt stepped in......simply the entire financial system would have frozen......no banks, no eftpos, no food.....so that's riots...civil emergency declared......
Simply thats almost certian to happen now in weeks....and it wont just be one Lehman.....its looking more like a 100...
regards
Re the fable:
'The ant works hard'
Just like the investment bankers or CEOs say that they work very long hours in a demanding job and therefore need huge pay packets, or, preferably, big share payouts.
'The grasshopper thinks the ant is a fool and laughs and dances and plays the summer away'
Perhaps on the minimum wage, fixing the roads...the CEO in his Mercedes passes the worker by and reflects that the worker is so lucky to be enjoying the sunshine as he does some manual labour.
Really Amanda...do you think that the effort you put in your job is related to your pay packet? Read some of the links on his site.
Ever heard of the 99%?
I agree, the original story is correct and fair. The ant keeps what he works for, but works for what he gets, and gets what he is working for. Same with the grasshopper.
The rich bankster or CEO is a parasite in the system, taking more then he works for, by taking from those that work for less then their work is worth.
Re: 1 and 3
I was back in NZ in the weekend, it was alarming how little focus was seeming to be given to the Euro issues. By comparison, there has been a massive amount of coverage and analysis of the issues here in Aus.
It seems the Aussies very well understand the implications, and kiwis don't (or don't want to, focussing instead on the big ticket issues like the tea pot scandal and Zac Guildford)
I'm loving "Lateline Business" on the ABC here with the lovely (and very intelligent / well informed) Ticky Fullerton
Matt,
I think I've made similar comments in the past about NZ v Aus govt policy. Basically, both ahve ben very bad, encouraging massive debt and asset inflation via terrible tax / housng / immigration policy. the difference betwen teh 2 countries however is that
1) to some degree, the recession has woken NZ up and politicans in NZ RECOGNISE there is a housing bubble, they talk about it openly, AND they are doing something (albeit not enough) about it eg National have removed depreciation, lowering top tax rate helps savers and reduces some incentive to negatively gear. In addition labour has introduced CGT and is looking hard at remove neg gearing credits
2) by contrast Aus over the past few years has done EVERYTHING in its power to stimulate debt and the associated housing bubble (eg FHOG extensions, deregulated covered bonds, AOFM buys RBMS, gov guarantess for deposits AND foreign investors, rental assistance has been increased, immigration ramp up under Rudd etc etc etc). Both parties REFUSE TO EVEN ACKNOWLEDGE there is a housing bubble, deferring instead to insipid commentaries from vested interests that all is ok. Worst of all, most Aussies believe they are immune from teh GFC and the events in Europe because China and the RBA will save them.
Or to put it simply, Aus is still living in a bubble - NZ at least knows the game is up.
Jimmy Squirrell,
I wish we had more regular comments from you. We need that sort of intelligence on here to make a nice change from the deluge of Malthusian trolling that "housing" issues get buried in. ("Of course houses are expensive, paradise is just about completely paved over......"!!!!)
I want to share something with you. I have commented (or tried to) on an Australian blog more than once, that I suspect that the Australian Federal Reserve is secretly doing "QE" already to keep the banks over there afloat regardless of what happens to their mortgage portfolios. I strongly suspect that this is being targeted specifically at their mortgage finance; perhaps the RBA is already secretly buying Mortgage Backed Securities with newly created money? It is one thing to try and re-float trading banks "equity" after a crash, as the US Fed has done, but it is quite another to give banks an effectively bottomless source of "cheat" funding for the mortgage market as a housing bubble is still inflating.
It also stinks that the banks concerned might pay their executives fat bonuses, effectively with this money. (Have you read "The Real Housewives of Wall Street" by Matt Taibbi?)
Here is the kicker - the comments I make to this effect are quickly deleted on the said Australian blog, with no explanation why. Other comments I make, do appear; in fact I have never had a problem with comments not appearing, except these ones.
So we will see if Interest.Co.Nz has any position on this.
PhilBest,
I can't say whether the Reserve Bank of Australia is involved in QE, but one could argue that our own Reserve Bank have been ever since the Global Financial Crisis, though in a more subtle manner. The commentary from Stephen Hulme at his website seems to indicate this anyway.
"NZDMO data release confirms the government has raised NZD 4.198 billion in new debt over the last three months.
On an annualised basis this would represent the thick end of NZD 17.0 billion in new taxpayer liabilities - much greater than forecast.
Surprisingly, none of this money is apparently being spent directly into the economy, if the latest RBNZ D10 release is to be believed.
The sharp Jan 09 run up in FX Swaps and Basis Swaps noted in section 10 of this release suggests the government has committed the borrowed money to bank deposits in return for foreign exchange reserves via cross currency basis swaps.
Dare I say the majority of taxpayers are partially funding the cheap mortgages of the few?
Further to the RBNZ's announcement to extend it's eligible securities list (collateral for TAF and reverse repo liquidity injections) to include corporate debt it added it's own debt in the form of RB bills.
Monetising one's own debt is the AAA version of premier pyramid schemes.
Under the accounting rules of repurchase agreements these so-called sterilisation securities issued by the RB to offset previous 'thin air' liquidity injections against other eligible collateral will in turn be monetised and will not be withdrawn from the cash recipient's balance sheet.
Stuff notes: Government debt offers better return than banks. Read more. What's more the RBNZ reveals that the NZ Government has been issuing debt over and above deficit spending requirements and lodging the proceeds with the RBNZ. View here under the heading Government Deposits.
Pre-funding anticipated deficits could be viewed as conservative money management in some quarters. But not if the average cost of issuance is ~5.50% and the O/N cash deposit rate offered by the RBNZ is ~3.0%.
Is the RBNZ on-lending the Government deposit to the same counterparties that bought the Government debt, hence financing positive carry position - at the citizens' expense? And if so who may those counterparties be other than our foreign owned domestic banks?"
btw, I'm looking into convening a public forum of finance and housing affordability at some stage in the near term. I've invited Hugh Pavletich, Raf Manji, and Stephen Hulme to appear on a panel of experts to moderate the discussion, who regularly post on here, to represent, housing affordabiity, monetary reform, and modern finance respectively. I wondered whether you'd like to provide some input as well. Is there any way I can contact you?
Not so sure, OZ is seeing some real drops? NZ the real estate band wagon still seems to think its A OK.........What info do you have to justify "NZ at least knows the game is up" ? I'd be interested in reading....Pollies maybe, PIs in here and the ones I know dont think so.
National has certainly done something to try and get a new course.....Labour, I cant say ive seen any evidence they are willing to lead by comparison.....
I agree on OZ porking the market though...the first time buyers cheque did a very nice job of stopping the housing market collapsing everytime it threatened to.......so right noe they need another one....
Problem with this housing bubble is there is nothing else making the middle class feel rich.....the rich really have got richer, the poor, poorer....the middle class more indebted with the delusion they are better off based on paper values. So when that pops, that suggests some in the middle class will be wiped out....so it will be the rich have got richer and the other >50% poorer....when that dawns on that >50% its not going to be pretty.
regards
Yes but this website isn't like mainstream media at all. That's why we're here incidentally. Some might say there are many doomsters on this website, but I think they're just realists.
On the subject of who to vote for, the following joke comes to mind.
... In an old joke from the defunct German Democratic Republic, a German worker gets a job in Siberia; aware of how all mail will be read by censors, he tells his friends: "Let's establish a code: if a letter you will get from me is written in ordinary blue ink, it is true; if it is written in red ink, it is false." After a month, his friends get the first letter written in blue ink: "Everything is wonderful here: stores are full, food is abundant, apartments are large and properly heated, movie theatres show films from the West, there are many beautiful girls ready for an affair - the only thing unavailable is red ink."
Agree....NZ is very local and introspective...
They seem to worrywho's bonking who in the "village".....so will miss the danger of getting buggered by global events until its actually hurting.....and then wonder WTF? The stupidity of our housing bubble looks like its about to land really soon......
regards
Ireland wants debt relief.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8911146/Ireland-dema…
regards
Thanks for that #9 Bernard. And not totally irrelevant. We could use some JFK like leadership today....
Aussie dollar dives... blame China for not working hard enough.
If you were planning on doing your Christmas shopping from American retailers this year, you may want to put those plans on hold.
The Aussie dollar was trading at US 96.83 cents this morning. So who's to blame? The poor German bond sales and China's preliminary manufacturing data.
But it could be worse. The PMI figure was just HSBC Bank's estimate of the PMI. It estimates the figure will plummet to 48, the lowest in over two years when the official figure is released next Thursday.
Any number below 50 suggests manufacturing activity is slowing. If HSBC data is on the money, it could be 'bye bye' to a controlled soft landing from Chinese central bankers... and 'hello' to a 'crash landing' instead.
3: Supermodels know more than your stock broker...
We know the market's in turmoil. Picking trades and planning your investments isn't easy.
But perhaps you should do what the supermodels do.
If that sounds crazy, check out this chart.
If you'd invested in the publicly listed company's supermodel, Gisele Bündchen has been involved with... your stock portfolio would have outperformed the Dow Jones.
Since 2007 the 'Gisele Index' is up more than 47% compared to the Dow Jones Industrial Index. Companies she has endorsed in the past four years include, Volkswagon [PK: VLKAY], Polo Ralph Lauren Corp [NYSE: RL], Vivo Participacoes [NYSE:VIV], Newscorp [NASDOQ:NWSA], Procter & Gamble [NYSE:PG] and Disney [NYSE:DIS].
But if you're going to use models as a basis for stock choices, pick 'em carefully. Miranda Kerr, another model, is an ambassador for David Jones [ASX:DJS].
This morning it's down 4%. And DJ's has a lost a massive 49% since its peak 2007...
We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment.
Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.