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Thursday's Top 10 with NZ Mint: Cash hoarding corporates and the problem of 'dead money'; How much should you save if you live to 120?; How multinationals avoid paying much tax anywhere; Dilbert

Thursday's Top 10 with NZ Mint: Cash hoarding corporates and the problem of 'dead money'; How much should you save if you live to 120?; How multinationals avoid paying much tax anywhere; Dilbert

Here's my Top 10 links from around the Internet at 10 am in association with NZ Mint.

As always, we welcome your additions in the comments below or via email to bernard.hickey@interest.co.nz.

See all previous Top 10s here.

My must read is #3 on the fiscal cliff. It's a significant risk and the election result doesn't make it any better. My other must read is #9 from Adair Turner on how the private banking system creates money and enormous macroeconomic risks when not bolted down. Truly radical stuff from a man who could be the next Governor of the Bank of England.

1. Dead money - The Economist points in this piece about corporate cash hoarding to one of the major problems in the glocal economy at the moment.

Companies worried about the future are socking away cash at an alarming rate, rather than investing in new projects or new hires.

Many burnt during the crisis by a break-down in the banking system prefer now to store or raise their own cash.

The rest are handing cash back to shareholders, who are the promptly putting it into Treasury bonds.

How is this logjam going to be broken?

Here's The Economist with its view:

The four worries unnerving business are: the euro-zone crisis; upheaval in the Middle East; a possible recession in China; and America’s economic health and “fiscal cliff”—the combination of tax increases and spending cuts scheduled to occur at the end of this year.

This is not a new problem. Investment has steadily risen since the recession ended, but not as vigorously as profits. In America, for example, nominal capital expenditure this year (on an annualised basis) has risen by 6% compared with 2007; internal cash flow is up by 32%. Companies have been net suppliers, instead of users, of funds to the rest of the economy since 2008. Firms in the S&P 500 held roughly $900 billion of cash at the end of June, according to Thomson Reuters, down a bit from a year earlier but still 40% up on 2008.

Business leaders and conservative critics cite that cash mountain as proof that meddlesome federal regulations and America’s high corporate-tax rate is locking up cash and depressing investment. But that cannot explain why the same phenomenon prevails worldwide. Japanese companies’ liquid assets have soared by around 75% since 2007, to $2.8 trillion, according to ISI Group, a broker. Cash stockpiles have continued to grow in Britain and Canada, too, to the immense frustration of policymakers there. “Dead money” is how Mark Carney, the Bank of Canada’s governor, has described the nearly $300 billion in cash Canadian companies now hold, 25% more than in 2008. Mr Carney admonished them to “put money to work and if they can’t think of what to do with it, they should give it back to their shareholders.”

2. Remember Inside Job? - Here's its director Charles Ferguson doing a right number on Glenn Hubbard, the academic pilloried in the movie and now Mitt Romney's key financial advisor.

Mitt Romney has a credibility problem. He changes his beliefs like laundry (abortion, medical insurance, whether Bin Laden was worth killing, attacking Iran), refuses to disclose his tax returns, and won't explain how he could possibly pay for the tax cuts he proposes. But there is another scandal in Romney's campaign -- namely Glenn Hubbard, Romney's chief economic advisor, who was chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors under George W. Bush, and is now Dean of Columbia Business School.

I interviewed Hubbard for my documentary film Inside Job, and analyzed his record again for my book Predator Nation. The film interview became famous because Hubbard blew his cool after I interrogated him about his conflicts of interest: "This isn't a deposition, sir. I was polite enough to give you time, foolishly I now see, but you have three more minutes. Give it your best shot." But the really important thing about Hubbard isn't his personality; it's that as an economist and an advisor, he is a total, unmitigated disaster.

2 (bonus). Global tax crackdown - The Telegraph reports Britain and Germany are planning a crackdown on tax avoiders. This story is getting a run on as multi-nationals such as Apple, Google, Amazon and Facebook continue to thumb their noses at cash-strapped Western governments. 

This is the backlash. What is our government doing to grab back these revenues?

 George Osborne and German finance minister Wolfgang Schaeuble issued a rare joint statement demanding "concerted international co-operation to strengthen international standards for corporate tax regimes" at the G20 meeting in Mexico City.

They want to stamp out the practice of profit shifting, whereby big companies legally move income earned in one country to another jurisdication to lower their total tax bill. The activity is denuding governments of tax revenues and giving big business an unfair advantage over domestic rivals, they said. 

3. Does not compute - Reuters analyses how Wall St and Washington are way too relaxed about the US fiscal cliff and how each other would react in the worst case scenario.

At the beginning of next year, $600 billion in tax increases and spending cuts - known as the fiscal cliff - will automatically become law unless Congress acts. Such dramatic moves could hammer consumer and business spending, push the U.S. economy back into recession and send markets reeling.

However, there is a sense that neither the financiers and investors in New York nor the lawmakers in Congress are taking each other seriously enough. Many in Washington believe Congress could do nothing, and the market reaction would be relatively sanguine. Plenty on Wall Street say the fiscal cliff, one way or another, will be dealt with. It raises the possibility that Congress will sail over the cliff, and markets will freak.

"The markets have been way too sanguine on the fiscal cliff," said Greg Valliere, chief political strategist for Potomac Research Group, which tracks Washington for institutional investors.

4. How multinationals avoid tax - The Independent explains how in this useful potted guide. If only we could all do the same...

I need to get me one of those Dutch sandwiches...

5. Insurers brace for the 'supercentarians' - The Guardian reports on what extreme ageing might mean for the pensions industry. How much would you need to save if you lived to 120?

Britain's oldest man, Reg Dean, celebrated his 110th birthday on Sunday. But it may not be long before he is overtaken in the age stakes by a new breed of "supercentenarians". The boss of one of Britain's main financial bodies on Tuesday revealed that several insurers are currently modelling pension products on the basis that their customers could reach the age of 120 or even 125.

Speaking to hundreds of actuaries at a conference, Otto Thoresen, director general of the Association of British Insurers, added that within our lifetime it will be "the norm" for people to live to 100 or more. But this, he said, threw up huge challenges in terms of getting people to save more for what may end up being a very long retirement.

6. 'Amicable divorce' - The BBC reports the tensions within Britain over its membership of the EU are growing.

Avowed Eurosceptic and European MP Nigel Farage has called for an amicable divorce and British Prime Minister David Cameron described the recent EU budget as ludicrous. A parlimentary revolt over that budget and news that 4% of EU money is wasted is fueling the debate.

Mr Cameron wants a freeze in the EU budget but is under pressure from Tory rebels and Labour to demand a cut. Germany has indicated it is sympathetic to the UK's arguments but says some increase is necessary.

Mr Farage waded into the debate in the European Parliament, calling on Mrs Merkel to use her meeting with Mr Cameron to tell him tell him the time had come for "a simple amicable divorce" as feeling in the UK runs completely against the tide of the greater EU integration being promoted by the German leader.

7. Brace for it - FT.com reports Greek politicians face yet another make-or-break vote on yet another austerity package to stay in the Euro. Mass protests are planned.

The 300 deputies were due to vote at midnight after a two-day debate on fiscal and structural measures, including cuts of between 5 and 35 per cent in pensions and public sector salaries, tax increases on fuel and cigarettes, and higher charges for state healthcare. The retirement age will rise from 65 to 67 for recent entrants to the workforce.

Analysts said the measures were likely to be approved by fewer than 10 votes after the Democratic Left, the junior coalition partner, decided to abstain and half-a-dozen socialist legislators threatened to vote against them.

Protesters were due to gather outside parliament in the early evening on the second day of a 48-hour general strike called by Greece’s two biggest trade unions.

8. Useful on the fiscal cliff - Here's a BBC Q&A on the fiscal cliff

It is possible that, now the election is out of the way, policymakers will focus on the impending deadline. But at this moment it is just that - a possibility. This whole issue has been characterised by brinkmanship, with neither side refusing to blink first.

The raft of tax and spending changes about to hit America could be altered, postponed or even cancelled. It is a matter of agreeing new legislation. Yet, the stalemate between the executive and legislative branches of Washington appears as rigid as ever.

9. What other central bankers are saying - Our new Reserve Bank Governor may be wedded to the orthodoxy of inflation targeting and letting the banks do their thing unimpeded, but FSA Chairman Adair Turner, who is a leading candidate to be the next Bank of England Governor, is seriously questioning the orthodoxy in this speech to the South African Reserve Bank.

First, we must recognise the dangers of a simplistically free market approach to finance, and regulate robustly to prevent a repeat. Second, that in the face of deleveraging we may need to consider innovative and unconventional combinations of policies to offset deflationary risks.

The existence of banks as we know them today – fractional reserve banks – exacerbates these risks because banks can create credit and private money, and unless controlled, will tend to create sub-optimally large or sub-optimally unstable quantities of both credit and private money.

Banks can create credit and private money. And as a result they introduce three potential sources of risk:

* They increase leverage within the economy, enabling larger aggregate debt contracts relative to household or corporate income or to GDP. And increased real economy leverage in itself increases potential economic instability.

* And they introduce leverage within the financial system itself – extending credit on the basis of small equity buffers, an inherently risky activity. * And they introduce maturity transformation, with the paper money they issue, or these days the electronic deposits, creating instantaneous or at least short-term available spending power, even when the loans are long-term in nature. And with such maturity transformation, inevitably comes risks of deposit runs, contagion and instability.

10. Totally Jon Stewart with his election night coverage.

 

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28 Comments

# 1. This is just another rather stark reminder that Big Coporations does not believe that there is anything worth investing in. 

 

1. They believe that the Banking system is due for another big fall....ie they don't believe there won't be another banking crisis.

 

2. They do not believe that the economy will improve in the foreseeable future, therefore they do not invest in new capacity or new business.

 

Do we really need more evidence that GFC II is coming soon if not already here ?? 

 

As for Mr Wheeler, .........this guy is going to take the fall when the next recession hits.

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Re#2 bonus.

There was (is) a withholding tax on royalties, 'marketing fees', intellectual fees paid to non nz residents. This should be applied to Google, Apple etc.

 

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#9  Wow he said that! Talk like that here is verboten even though 95%+ of our money supply comes from private corporations. There is just an assumption that its good or the only alternative.

"The existence of banks as we know them today – fractional reserve banks – exacerbates these risks because banks can create credit and private money, and unless controlled, will tend to create sub-optimally large or sub-optimally unstable quantities of both credit and private money."

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Reading the whole speech it is even more remarkable. I'm sure Wheeler will read it at some point though I doubt it will sink in. Will not compute. Key should read it but better not to so as to have plausible deniability of the ideas contained within. Far too confronting.

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He accepted a life peerage from the Blair government. What was the price?

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You assume Key didn't know that basic fact about banking, even though he's a banker? But then, he is a very small cork floating in a very big sea...

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Re #1: Those horrible corporates are most unpatriotic in their saving.... sorry, I mean hoarding of money. Maybe they think they know better than the government. Such arrogance! But a good responsive interventionist government can find a way to stop them. If we have such hoarding corporates in NZ the Govt should start up a scheme called "KiwiSpender" to force them to put all their spare cash into it. The Kiwispender can issue IOUs to the corporates, and then spend all the money on unnecessary projects which will revive the economy, and the corporates will discover that they did not need the money anyway because the Govt had done such a brilliant job in causing economic growth.

In the unlikely event that the Govt gets it wrong, and the economy shrivels, the corporates would then discover it was a time-consuming bureaucratic nightmare to get their money back, (it would be "printed" money), so they would go bankrupt, and thus they would not need the money anyway.

Whichever way you look at it, the corporates do not need the money.

This would be a win-win situation for the government, and so all New Zealander's would benefit.

Then to really give the economy a boost the Government could start the Bastiat Broken Window Creative Destruction Department to employ the talents of unemployed youths.

 

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This really is a classic example of "intervention begets more intervention".  Governments around the world are using central banks to lower interest rates in order to reduce their own borrowing costs.  Why are they surprised corporates are using these low rates to repair their balance sheets? 

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Good news Austrian. Yesterday you asked for a reforendum on if the government should balance its books like a household. In #7 today the Greeks have decided to hold an inproptu non-binding reforendum on their own government. The vote appears to have split pretty evenly 50% say 'no', and the other half are voting 'hell no'! Just a pity its not a binding reforendum.

 

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This "fiscal cliff" debate is all just alarmist nonsense.  "OH NOEZ!  TEH GOVERNMENT IS MAKING SOME MINOR SPENDING CUTS AND MODEST TAX INCREASES!"  It's all about getting people hooked on government spending, and also hooked to the idea that said government spending is needed to keep the economy afloat.  What we aren't supposed to ask is how the government funds that spending (hint: it doesn't come from some magical stream).

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Hoho as if we'd believe it came from a magical stream!

We all know they get it from farming and selling unicorn tears.

Spending cuts and tax increases that amount to around 5% are not exactly 'minor' BTW. When your current GDP is only around 2%, and you then knock 5% off it, that makes... oooh quite a strong recession.

And I would have thought with a debt of over 16 trillion and a deficit of about a trillion a year the people were already hooked on government spending...

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#7 If the Greek's don't overthrow their government over austerity then nobody wil. However if they did, and i dobt it, then it will race across Europe before they wake up to what's happenning.

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Sorry  Mike, I'm confused, what will go racing across Europe? The Greeks?

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Yea,

Lets trust the goverment with Pensions...

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Yo Bernard. You planning on being around in 2085? Better invest those house sale profits in equities huh? :) Good returns on corporatised old age homes I reckon.

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With 2.5%PA inflation the median house price in Auckland in 2085 will be $3.75m ...

 

(If it is 4%PA, the median will be $10.8m)

 

AND that median house will have netted over $20m in rents after tax and expenses even if the profits from rents were just put in a savings account ...

 

Quick go and buy as many as you can!

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Amanda/Chris J

Chris J is right. With the current settings I'd be much better off simply carving up the proceeds from the house sale, gearing them up to buy multiple investment properties in Auckland and then simply waiting for the inevitably large, leveraged tax free gains to fall into my pocket by 2085.

We can assume little new house building and low interest rates for the next sixty years.

I'm sort of not kidding. Those things can be assumed while the oldies like me predominate in the electoral stakes. And because we'll never die it'll stay that way for ever.

I'm planning on not dying. Best bet.

;)

cheers

Bernard

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Yeah, Bernard shame you didn't go one better and let a US bank (Goldman, JP) gear you into billions of US Treasury positions and let the Fed and futures take care of business. It wouldn't have made a damn bit of difference if you take the proceeds of the property sale - stealing a penny is the same as stealing a pound - right? Much cleaner as UST's never complain about sewage or leaky rooves. Chris J needs to step up a gear and learn to live hassle free.

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Your probably sick of my rants Bernard, but with real estate, you've really got to compare the rental yield with the real interest rate.

 

With inflation around 2.5%PA then we have real interest rates about 3.5%PA.

 

As long as net returns on property are above those real interest rates, then you can't really go wrong with property.

 

But!! you say, what about if interest rates move to 10%PA?  If they are at that level inflation will be higher - historically real interest rates rarely vary far from about 4%PA.

 

So properties that return 10%PA in the current economy (in good locations) are just money machines. 

 

Even prime property in Auckland (because it rents for so much) isn't a bad investment.  A $1.2m Ponsonby or Mt Eden villa can rent at $1200pw (if you purchase right).

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Don't save a damn thing, not if your going to be 120......burden the State,  be an artifact,maw your way through some mulied cake,and watch everyone in sundry talk about you like you not even in the room or like your 6 months old....get your tongue tatoo at 105, with up yours or something suitable for your future care givers.

Money at 120...?oh the things I could do, sit , dribble, lie down, dribble,cough a little for some exercise, sit some more...oh yes that'll be just brill...

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If you think the state truly care for the elderly Christov, you are very much mistaken.

 

Take a visit to our hospitals or rest homes, the current practice is pretty much to let nature take it's course with the old and frail.  Keeping them comfortable is more the aim, not spending money to prolong their lives.  If you're a smoker, drinker or obese, they will pretty much give up on you at an age you can hardly believe (certainly well before the retirement age).

 

I know from first hand experience, and it's not a pretty picture, so the moral is to have someone who truly cares about you, looking out for you in old age, and to have plenty of money too.

 

Extremely sad, but unfortunately very true.

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OMG truly appalling behaviour - keeping old people comfortable until they die of natural causes! How do they get away with this travesty???

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LOL.

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Obviously I don't Chris J......my sarcasm wasted on your good self....many apologies.

 As it happens we took care of both my wifes parents untill their death, her mom lived with us for 18 years  her dad 10..yeah I know how it is... ok..?.

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It's sometimes hard to tell sarcasm in this medium, Christov!

 

I meant no offence, and none was taken by me.   I do think it's sad but true that some private healthcare providers skimp on costs to turn even bigger profits from their "customers" ... at least until the undertaker takes over.

 

Personally I think the way these providers are funded needs overhauled especially if we are all going to become centenarians.  The charity and Church providers appear to offer a much higher standard of care than those that turn big profits by relying on cheap immigrant wages, worn out facilities and food that makes boarding schools look like gourmet dining.

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Good' ol' ZH has an interesting bit re the US 'budget':  boils down to:

 

Revenue  2.303 trilly

Interest on debt 0.454 trilly

Mandatory spend 2.025 trilly

Whoops!  we are already in the hole for 0.176 trilly

Holy horseshoe, Ob'man!  We still gotta add Discretionary spend.  For fripperies like the military, education, not ter mention the IRS....

Off with the socks, Barry, we gonna need some serious computing power to add all this up....

 

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Oh, and BH, this Spengler/David P Goldman note has legs in terms of explaining both the jobs dilemma and the stagnation of middle-class incomes.

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Axing Environment Canterbury elections until at least 2016 is a breach of the Government's commitment to democracy, New Zealand's Human Rights Commission says.

His submission states: "The commission considers that no good reason has been provided for extending the present legislation. The lack of public consultation about content - or the continuing need for legislation - is an abuse of the democratic process and does not reflect the real needs of Cantabrians (and could even do real harm)

http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/news/7926305/Axing-election-abuse-of-human-rights-watchdog

 

 

 

 

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