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Rodney Dickens makes a public plea to Governor Wheeler to keep the OCR more stable in the future, avoiding unnecessary and costly volatility in the OCR

Posted in Opinion
"I hope Graeme Wheeler has done his homework so he avoids repeating the mistakes made by his predecessors"

By Rodney Dickens*

Since the first governor was appointed on 1 January 1934 the Reserve Bank has had 11 governors of which seven have been misters, two have been doctors and two have been sirs.

There have also been two periods when acting governors were in charge, which included the period between Don departing and Alan taking over in 2002 during which Dr Rod Carr was acting governor.

The adjacent chart shows the recent history of Reserve Bank governors.

A half tribute to Alan Bollard

In the last three years and five months of Alan Bollard's term as governor he only changed the OCR three times: two 0.25% hikes in 2010 and one 0.5% cut in 2011.

This was a remarkable achievement in the context of the volatile history of the OCR shown in the chart below.

And, more generally, in the context of the volatility in interest rates shown in the chart above since the Reserve Bank was given independence in the operation of monetary policy via the Reserve Bank Act of 1989 (although the Reserve Bank was effectively given independence some time before 1989).

In a number of past Ravings I have highlighted the cost of volatile interest rates and made a case for much more stable interest rates (visit our website to see these).

The massive volatility in interest rates experienced in the past has needlessly kicked around industries sensitive to interest rates like residential building (see the adjacent chart).

The Reserve Bank could have achieved its inflation objective without marching interest rates up the hill just to march them back down again.

So I applaud Alan for keeping the OCR more stable since 2009.

There have still been cycles in mortgage interest rates and residential building consents during the recent period of a much more stable OCR. But it is no coincidence that these cycles have been much less severe than most past cycles.

The volatility of new dwelling consents in the recent period of a more stable OCR has been almost one third of the previous volatility based on the relevant mathematical calculations (i.e. standard deviations).

The more stable OCR has contributed to a more stable economic environment, which is something the Reserve Bank put far too little emphasis on in the past.

In the past the Reserve Bank was a major contributor to volatility in the economy.

But it was more coincidence than intent that the OCR and 90- day bank bill yield have been much more stable recently.

The bottom chart shows that the Reserve Bank has consistently predicted significant increases in the 90-day bank bill yield during the period Alan kept the OCR stable (i.e. Alan intended to deliver a large cyclical increase, but events prevented this).

Most notably, economic growth failed to experience the normal strong recovery after the recession in 2009.

The adjacent chart shows that economic growth has been not far from the historical average rate since early 2010. A range of factors contributed to economic growth being weaker than predicted by the Reserve Bank over the last few years, as discussed in our monthly economic reports.

Over the last couple of years we have warned clients that economic growth would be weaker than the Reserve Bank predicted and that the predictions of significant interest rate increases were misplaced. For info on these reports visit http://www.sra.co.nz/index.php/interesting-times.

It was more a coincidence than intent that Alan didn't change the OCR much over the last few years. But maybe Alan was partly motivated in the last few years by a desire to keep the OCR more stable rather than the stable OCR being just a reaction to economic growth failing to rebound to above average levels (i.e. maybe he deserves more than a half tribute).

But Alan deserves credit because he resisted hiking the OCR in the last couple of years despite regular calls the bank economists for hikes.

In a 7 August 2011 Raving I highlighted why OCR hikes were not warranted despite calls for hikes.

Graeme, please focus on the neutral OCR rather than be the next Grand Old Duke of York

This Raving is a public plea to Governor Wheeler to keep the OCR more stable in the future (i.e. avoid marching it up the hill, just to march it back down).

This doesn't mean the OCR shouldn't change. When the financial crisis eventually heals there will be a case for a reasonably significant increase in the OCR, although this shouldn't mean a major increase in the interest rates faced by borrowers.

The main feature should be the gap between the OCR and the likes of the average mortgage interest narrowing towards precrisis levels (see the top chart on page two to see how much the financial crisis resulted in this gap increasing).

My plea is that Graeme focuses on assessing the appropriate level of the OCR for achieving the medium term target of keeping inflation in the 1-3% range (i.e. he focuses on assessing the "neutral" level of the OCR) and avoids unnecessary and costly volatility in the OCR.

This means he needs to depart from the path of his predecessors who far too frequently marched the OCR (and 90-day bank bill yield) up the hill, just to reasonably soon thereafter march it back down again. To view the report I wrote in June 2011 that reviewed the experience with an independent central bank since 1989 use this link ».

This report concluded that the Reserve Bank has more often been the disease rather than the cure. To view the report I wrote in June 2011 that exposed the fundamental flaw in the way OCR decisions are made use this link ».

The flawed approach used to make OCR decisions meant monetary policy has been a major source of volatility in economic activity and especially housing market activity, in the incomes of retired people who often have a sizeable portion of their wealth in interest bearing investments and probably also in the NZD. To view the final of the three reports on monetary policy I released in June 2011 use this link ».

This report proposed a superior approach to making OCR decisions that would result in significantly less volatility in interest rates and a more stable economic environment than has been the case on average since 1989.

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*Rodney Dickens is the managing director and chief research officer of Strategic Risk Analysis Limited.

We welcome your help to improve our coverage of this issue. Any examples or experiences to relate? Any links to other news, data or research to shed more light on this? Any insight or views on what might happen next or what should happen next? Any errors to correct?

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6 Comments

The problem is that the bank

The problem is that the bank economists & JK & BE are stubbornly expecting a return to 'normal' growth and conditions.  
This is obviously not going to happen.
AB should have dropped the OCR well before the Earthquake. He also should not have raised the OCR at all anytime after 2008 (What did he think.... the GFC was all over??!!). 
The misuse of the OCR is continually hammering our remote, export economy. For what effect?   
Other measures could be used to dampen the Auckland housing market.
The problem is that now it will be very difficult to raise interest rates. One rise (of OCR or lending rates) - and the locals will react like the infamous Lange 'reef fish' and batten down the hatches tighter than presently.
 
The other interesting option is to completely confuse the external money coming in & out of the NZ$ -   drop and raise the OCR randomly over the year! Then the "market" will have no idea of the schizophrenic madness of the RBNZ Governor (in this scenario - not disparaging current incumbent).
 

I fully agree with you. I

I fully agree with you. I think the govenor could take off on a world trip and Bill should tell him "don't hurry back"
 
Where is the inflation going to come from?
 
For there to be inflation, people have to have the money to spend, but not enough goods and services to spend it on.
Can you imagin shop shelves being empty?
As soon as the spending starts, the containers will start pouring in, packed with everything imaginable. It will be the period 2000 to 2008 all over again. There will be no shortages so no inflation.
Under globalisation, supply and demand both rise untill everyone is bankrupt, then we have completed another cycle.
As others will no doubt point out, this madness will end when the resources run out.
 

Problem with that logic it's

Problem with that logic it's wonder there has ever been any inflation at anytime in history.
I also think the idea we will 'see' it coming is also flawed, again why would we give it cause to happen at all if we were that prescient.
You can easily have deflation in some areas of the economy and inflation in others. Or rapid deflation followed by inflation or vice-versa.
As I see it we have 'steady' inflation at 1-2% year that is battling against some credit deflation, however this is not enough to generate sugar-coated prosperity like 2000-08 years, and CBs are madly trying to stimulate to cause more inflation via credit growth which seems to have become a perverse goal.

New Zealand Government told

New Zealand Government told to lower house prices – TVOne Colmar Brunton Poll
 
A Television One Colmar Brunton Poll found that 62% of New Zealanders want  lower house prices, with 75% of young New Zealanders wanting them.
 
And importantly -  that Government take meaningful steps to ensure affordable housing is provided.
 
http://tvnz.co.nz/national-news/govt-should-act-lower-house-prices-poll-5257810/video
 
This years 8th Annual Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey illustrates New Zealand housing is rated “severely unaffordable”, with Auckland housing at 6.4 times household incomes and earthquake ravaged Christchurch at 6.3 times (New Orleans in contrast 3.3 times)..........read more at  http://www.facebook.com/CantabriansUnite
 
Hugh Pavletich

So I applaud Alan for keeping

So I applaud Alan for keeping the OCR more stable since 2009.
 
Mmmmmm...
 
16th December 2008
 
The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to establish a target range for the federal funds rate of 0 to 1/4 percent. 
 
And so on to 24 October 2012
 
To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee expects that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will remain appropriate for a considerable time after the economic recovery strengthens.  In particular, the Committee also decided today to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate are likely to be warranted at least through mid-2015. Read FOMC statement 
 
What was Dr Bollard likely to miss in the instruction set?

And if the future is not

And if the future is not clear may I direct all to this illuminating blogger.