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Wednesday's Top 10: Why the money printing hasn't finished yet; UK may ask Ireland for help with RBS' bad bank; Central Banks and deoxygenated blood; A gun with a WiFi hotspot; Dilbert

Wednesday's Top 10: Why the money printing hasn't finished yet; UK may ask Ireland for help with RBS' bad bank; Central Banks and deoxygenated blood; A gun with a WiFi hotspot; Dilbert
This daily collection of links and comment was previously sponsored by NZ Mint. We'd welcome a new sponsor.

Here's my Top 10 links from around the Internet at 10 am today.

As always, we welcome your additions in the comments below or via email to bernard.hickey@interest.co.nz.

See all previous Top 10s here.

My must read today is #9 on the problem with German saving.

1. Don't bet on it - Jeremy Warner at The Telegraph weighs into the debate over whether the money printing is about to end.

He doesn't think we're there yet.

He's right.

Mainly because the Europeans have yet to really start their own money printing. 

They're likely to get there once Southern Europe blows up properly. All it will take is a Turkish style revolt in somewhere like Spain or Portugal.

Then the Germans will capitulate and turn on the printing machines.

Here's Jeremy with his view:

The world economy is still in a very deep hole, with major structural imbalances still largely unaddressed. Any attempt to apply the brakes would only choke off what remains a very fragile and unconvincing recovery, tipping some major economies back into recession.

This in turn means that central banks will struggle to remove monetary accommodation in the way markets are starting to anticipate. We’ve become hooked on easy money, and I very much doubt the world economy is yet ready for the cold turkey of its withdrawal.

As if to prove the point, there were two absolute shockers in the data from the world’s two leading economies on Monday. Both the US and China saw a contraction in manufacturing activity in May. But worry not. In the “through the looking glass” world occupied by financial markets, what for the real economy looks like unadulterated bad news can, in fact, be seen as good news, for it may mean that central banks are forced into another burst of money printing after all.

2. Break up the Royal Bank of Scotland into good and bad - Robert Peston at the BBC has the scoop. Britain is a real mess. It's even so desperate it might hand over one particularly smelly chunk of RBS to Ireland's bad bank!

there is another, more radical option also being assessed by the Treasury. Which would be to simultaneously take out of RBS the most troubled of its global operations, Ulster Bank, with its substantial lossmaking business in the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland.

Ulster has £37bn of assets (loans and investments) on a risk-adjusted basis.

One idea would be to transfer Ulster Bank into the arms and ownership of the Irish government, by swapping all or part of Ulster Bank for low quality British loans and investments currently owned by Ireland's National Asset Management Agency: NAMA inherited these stinky British assets when it acquired the problem loans of Ireland's reckless banks.

3. Trade skirmish - The BBC reports the EU has gone ahead with temporary anti-dumping duties against China's heavily subsidised solar panel manufacturers. This could get ugly.

4. The decline of small business - Ed Dolan at Economonitor points to fresh research and this chart below showing corporate America is racing ahead of small business America, which may explain the jobs drought over there in recent years.

Big corporates have skewed the tax playing field in their direction, it seems.

Typically, corporate income is subject to double taxation, first as corporate profit when it is earned by the firm and then as individual income when owners receive it as dividends or capital gains. However, some corporations, including many of the largest, escape the corporate profits tax in whole or in part by taking advantage of various loopholes. Their owners then benefit further from preferential individual income tax rates on dividends and capital gains. The result is a combined rate for capital income from corporate sources that, even with double taxation, is often below the rate on ordinary income.

As I have frequently argued (most recently in this post), the best way to level the playing field for taxes on businesses of all types would be to abolish the corporate profits tax altogether and tax all capital income at ordinary rates when it is received by owners.

5. 'Bernake will ruin the world' - That's what SocGen's Albert Edwards reckons in this piece.

6. 'A reckless and moronic policy' - Albert Edwards also thinks the British government's attempt to pump up house prices is also a bad thing.

7. 'A wounded heart pumping deoxygenated blood' - PIMCO's Bill Gross produces a monthly opinion piece which is always worth reading.

Low yields, low carry, future low expected returns have increasingly negative effects on the real economy. Granted, Chairman Bernanke has frequently admitted as much but cites the hopeful conclusion that once real growth has been restored to “old normal”, then the financial markets can return to those historical levels of yields, carry, volatility and liquidity premiums that investors yearn for. Sacrifice now, he lectures investors, in order to prosper later.

Well it’s been five years Mr. Chairman and the real economy has not once over a 12-month period of time grown faster than 2.5%. Perhaps, in addition to a fiscally confused Washington, it’s your policies that may be now part of the problem rather than the solution. Perhaps the beating heart is pumping anemic, even destructively leukemic blood through the system. Perhaps zero-bound interest rates and quantitative easing programs are becoming as much of the problem as the solution. Perhaps when yields, carry and expected returns on financial and real assets become so low, then risk-taking investors turn inward and more conservative as opposed to outward and more risk seeking. Perhaps financial markets and real economic growth are more at risk than your calm demeanor would convey.

Wounded heart you cannot save … you from yourself. More and more debt cannot cure a debt crisis unless it generates real growth. Your beating heart is now arrhythmic and pumping deoxygenated blood. Investors should look for a pacemaker to follow a less risky, lower returning, but more life sustaining path.

8. One bizarre outcome - Recessions now lengthen lifespans, says Peter Orzsag in this Bloomberg opinion piece.

9. Blame the Germans - Michael Pettis argues excess German savings caused the European debt crisis.

10. Totally Stephen Colbert on a rifle with its own WiFi hotspot.

 

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13 Comments

#2.  Why should the Irish Government again take responsibility for any dodgy bank.  Did that before and see how that turned out.  Let the thing go broke.

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because ppl use bank accounts to buy food etc....so fear, bank runs...no more food (3 days on shelves?)  kind of ikky...

Roll on in the OBR policy (july?), I cant wait.

regards

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Question for Bernard H  ? , RE Money printing , I wonder what the likely negative consequences would be if New Zealand issued 10 , 12 and 15 year Bonds ( debt)  yielding 0,5% denominted in NZ$ for the Christchurch rebuild ?

While orthodox economics says this would be inflationary , the advatnages are :

  • It could be our ammo in the Currency War
  • It could weaken the NZ$ back to its realistic 10 year  average level ( currently its distorted by others printing money)
  • It could fund  the Chch rebuild without straining the fiscus ( which is currently a very likely scenario)
  • It could stimulate domestic  growth
  • Avoids a budget blowout as the interest costs of borrowing are almost zero
  • It could lead us to fuller employment

 

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Who are these orthodox economists?

The $NZD is really open to severe fluctuations as it is.  The danger is when there is a future run to the USD our printing to reduce the rate today will have a double whammy....

Chch rebuilding is localised to chch (ie it doesnt do the country good) and that environment is inflationary and I wonder what the payback will be to our economy at that inflated rate....

Now taking on 10 year debt at 3.2% spread over the country to do the needed infrastructure work, yes OK there is some justification for that it needs doing, puts money into ppls pockets and yes isnt very inflationary.

Stimulate economic growth is like taking speed or caffine, it short term and makes you feel like cwap later on with the withdrawl...too much (caffine) I find can also give you severe headaches immediately.....if that holds into the economy, what then?

Just like other countries we'd force employment down possibly by creating jobs in the wrong sector over the medium and long term for an advantage over the short....so I cant see that being wise.

regards

 

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Boatman, am delighted to see you are on board. Doing such printing would likely achieve all the objectives you outline. Given large money supply increases now through the commercial banks, a limited amount would not be inflationary at all, apart from any exchange rate effects, which as you say are necessary anyway. Being a little pedantic the interest rate on these bonds can be anything. It would be the government paying itself.

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#3 - parrying with the proxy.

 

Put it all together; EU leaders leading a witch-hunt into FF "prices', trying to stimulate something called 'growth', and correctly identifying the choker, leading to resenting an alternative energy because it's 'cheap'.

 

Actually, this just tells you that FF is trending down the EROEI track, to the point where solar is competitive. I've been watching $ per watt, for a long time, bearing in mind that the $ is only a proxy, so it's pretty remote tracking. Nonetheless, roughly speaking, $3/watt was grid-parity, and we're at $1/watt now.

 

That tells us that oil is geting harder to get and of worsening quality, that it is heading for solar parity, and that this means BAU (historically-'normal' median multiples and all) is now history. You don't run Business as Usual on less than usual - hard to understand why they don't understand that - and solar is 'less than usual'.

 

 

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Dunno how you'd ever work this into an Interesting piece, BH, but it's simply a fabulous comment.....

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Nice one. 

Liked this summary of Australia: "...an economy based on selling each other coffee until the last of the mining money fritters away."

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Yet another Ursine piece in the Torygraph.  Perhaps we need an acronym:  YAUP.  It all rather reinforces PDK's view of BAU as irrevocably broken, and together with the fact that Peak real wages was around 1973....

 

Where can I collect my Gloomster award, please?

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Take a ticket and stand in line. Speaking of acronyms BTW, if you want to sound like a VSP then refer to the broken BAU as "secular change" it sounds very grand.

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UK Ministry of Defence report worth rather a mention:

''The report says that depletion of cheap conventional "easy oil", along with shortages of food and water due to climate change and population growth, will sustain rocketing energy prices. Long-term price spikes are likely to lead to a long recession in Western economies, fuelling internal unrest and the rise of nationalist movements.

The report predicts that "the imminent passing of the point of peak 'easy oil' will mean that hydrocarbon-based energy prices will rise significantly out to 2040." Other factors affecting energy prices include "increasing demand for fossil fuels" due to South Asia's "industrial rise" and greater "volatility in supply" in the Middle East.'

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/earth-insight/2013/jun/04/rising-…

Oh my. By gum, I do believe it is already starting to happen. At least the MoD has its eye on the ball.

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The UK MOD have been there for longer than anyone, and obviously haven't taken their eye off the spigot.

 

"I am glad that the story of the British Petroleum Company should now be written. I myself was associated with it in...1913 and 1914, and it's development from the Anglo-Persian Oil Company is of much interest. This great venture has played a notable part in the history of the past fifty years, and has contributed to our national prosperity in peace, and our safety in war"           Churchill, Chartwell, 1959, intro to the Longhurst book.

 

Why else was Lawrence in Arabia, why else was Gertrude Bell stationed in Baghdad? Why was the 2NZEF backing-up in front of Rommel? Why was Rommel heading that way? Why else holler out the 'Weapons of Mass Destruction' horespoo?

 

They follow the US and German militaries.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/apr/11/peak-oil-production-supply

http://peakoil.com/publicpolicy/german-military-analysis-of-peak-oil-now-available

 

Military planners tend not to bother fooling themselves. Yet, over on another thread, there's someone suggesting that more vehicle sales are to be lauded, a good sign or something.  You gotta wonder.

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