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Friday's Top 10: Even an uber-dove says 'Sept-taper'; Hello Kitty's billions; China's 'Castles in the Air'; Little Brothers galore; Our world-beating sovereign wealth fund; Clarke and Dawe; Dilbert

Friday's Top 10: Even an uber-dove says 'Sept-taper'; Hello Kitty's billions; China's 'Castles in the Air'; Little Brothers galore; Our world-beating sovereign wealth fund; Clarke and Dawe; Dilbert

Here's my Top 10 links from around the Internet at midday today. As always, we welcome your additions in the comments below or via email to bernard.hickey@interest.co.nzSee all previous Top 10s here.

This is my last regular Top 10 so today's version is going to be fairly light. I'll be back once a week on a Wednesday with a Top 10 from September 25. David Chaston will keep publishing his Monday Top 10 and there'll be a variety of guest contributors for a Friday Top 10, but we won't be publishing on a Tuesday or Thursday. I have been doing a Top 10 most days for the last six years and it's time I gave it a rest. I hope you've enjoyed it. Cheers. Bernard.

1. Even a 'dove' is saying 'taper' - Matthew Klein from Bloomberg has written a nice piece explaining why renowned central banking theorist Michael Woodford is recommending the Fed 'taper' its quantitative easing.

Woodford is renowned as the father of 'forward guidance' as a way for central banks to ease monetary policy once they have cut their policy rate to 0%. Here's a useful profile on him.

We can thank him for the US Federal Reserve's current promise to keep its rates at 0% until the unemployment rate falls below 6.5%.

Our Reserve Bank has its own form of forward guidance with its promise not to hike rates in 2013 and to start hiking them later in 2014. 

Woodford is seen as something of a 'dove' so his recent comments in favour of tapering were pounced on. It's all very topical ahead of next week's meeting where a decision to start 'Sept-taper' is considered a possibility.

Here's Klein:

For Woodford, the most important point is that the Fed's balance sheet cannot keep growing without imposing costs on the financial system and broader economy -- even when inflation is low and unemployment is high.

Treasury bonds are uniquely useful for savers. When the Fed makes these securities more expensive -- or restricts their supply through asset purchases -- the central bank harms regular savers without doing much to boost the broader economy. Moreover, the relative scarcity of newly-issued Treasury bonds has been causing havoc in the repo markets.

2. Other ways to impress your girl - This is a bit of fun. Unless you're the potential bride. In Kazakhstan there's a guy offering 'mock' attacks on a potential bride where the potential groom 'saves' the bride from the mock attack to show the bride how much he really cares and how much of a real man he is. Eurasianet has the story.

The Cupid behind the scenes is Almaty student Alan Temirbayev. He was inspired after impressing his girlfriend with his macho style during a real-life assault two years ago.  “We have special effects, shots, whatever you want can be done,” the brains of the operation said. “It’s essential to make it all look natural, so that the girl is frightened and the guy sees them all off.”
The girl may well take fright. Bride kidnapping is not uncommon in Kazakhstan. 

3. What it feels like to be a censor - Here's a Reuters story from China about what it's like to be one of the army of censors who delete Sina Weibo (micro-blog) posts in China. Monitoring comments on Interest.co.nz is not like this at all...

Reuters got a glimpse of the Sina Weibo censorship office in Tianjin, half an hour from Beijing by high-speed train, one recent weekend morning.

A dozen employees, all men, could be seen through locked glass doors from a publicly accessible corridor, sitting in cramped cubicles separated by yellow dividers, staring at large monitors. They more closely resembled Little Brothers than the Orwellian image of an omniscient and fearsome Big Brother.

"Our job prevents Weibo from being shut down and that gives people a big platform to speak from. It's not an ideally free one, but it still lets people vent," said a second former censor.

4. Wonder if it got a building consent - I live in Wellington now so this building in China called a 'Castle in the Air' doesn't look that...er... structurally sound. 

This one way to build up rather than out. 

5. Hello Kitty - It turns out the Japanese franchised cat is worth billions, Bloomberg reports. Who knew? 

In 1960, Tsuji started Yamanashi Silk Center Co. with 1 million yen in capital, selling silk goods and rubber beach sandals. He introduced his first character, Strawberry, in 1962, pioneering the use of character copyrights, the book said.

The cartoon cat boomed after Tsuji sold his first Hello Kitty product, a coin purse, in 1975, before adults lost interest. It then had a resurgence in the 1990s, standing out from a stable of 450 Sanrio characters. In 2000, fist-fighting mobs thronged McDonald’s Corp.’s fast-food outlets in Singapore to buy dolls of Hello Kitty and her companion, Dear Daniel, dressed in wedding outfits.

“Part of it is making cute into cool,” Yano, the author of “Pink Globalization: Hello Kitty’s Trek Across the Pacific,” said. “Every time you see the outrageous picture of an MMA wrestler wearing a pink Hello Kitty thong, you have to laugh.”

6. Plaudits for the NZ Super Fund - Given we're all thinking about our Larry-beating sailors and their high tech exploits overseas, here's a piece from America's Institutional Investor magazine lauding our own NZ Super Fund. 

When governments set out to launch sovereign funds or public pension funds, they are often biased with an assumption that these funds will never be able to compete with the private sector. Over time, this assumption is given credibility by the fact that the sponsors of these funds under-resource the teams in charge, while over-paying external asset managers and service providers. This creates a vicious downward cycle whereby pensions become increasingly dependent on external managers (who increasingly over-charge them for services they claim are beyond their capabilities). As a result, an awful lot of people genuinely believe that investment management is something that only the private sector can do; that public sector organizations are inevitably dysfunctional and should be protected from themselves...

And then this happens: A sovereign fund drops some science on the investment management industry with a 26% year and a 9% decennial IRR. That SWF is the New Zealand Superannuation Fund, and it is fundamentally challenging the notion that public funds can’t compete with the private sector.

7. America and class - America likes to think of itself as a classless society. Here's the NY Times with a piece on class at one of its bastions of wealth: Harvard University.

8. Ageing and migration - Japan is notorious for not allowing in many migrants, despite the need to revitalise its ageing population and economy. Here's FTAlphaville with a look how that's changing...a bit.

9. America's real problem - It is the world's largest economy so we should take notice. Here's a useful bunch of charts via WaPo's Wonkblog of America's post-crisis economy.

This one tells the story.

10. Totally Clarke and Dawe on a peculiar election result in Australia. There is a 'Beekeepers for taller buildings' party. Apparently.

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53 Comments

Bernard, you do a top job. I'm already looking forward to your first Wednesday Top Ten. Here's hoping that they last long into the future.

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Hear hear

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Re#6 - I am sure the government has the foresight to send an emissary to Washington to kiss the Ring of the (financial) Fisherman.

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#9 and the gap between rich and poor (inequality) has broken the 1927 record

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-24039202

 

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In the US.   Which is not where we live, and whose experiences and data are not automatically replicated or relevant here.

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NZ has one of the worst inequality gaps in the OECD thanks to a generation of flaky neo liberalism.

 

Why does "in the US" mean it is not relevant? The same economic theory has dominated most of the West.

 

 

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its not "flaky neo liberalism"  it's flaky politicos, and their flaky socialism.
Pushing up the minimum wage past it's natural boundary result in loss of low end economic activity profits and wage availability) and results in high prices which detrimental affect the low incomes.

The biggest problem with low income is the ratio of living costs to disposable income.

When purchasing power of household disposable income is good, then spending can occur, investment in wealth generation and human value add can occur, so can passive wealth generation (eg pension planning).
  By having high prices and high taxes the low income earners can't climb out of the hand-to-mouth phase - as day-to-day survival consumes a large portion of their resources the desire and ability to long-term plan (ie delayed gratification) falls away.

 The bigger and more generous the safety net, and the more foolish plans of stimulation of economy by government spending (under a fractional/bank related reserve system) the higher the tax cost (and/or recovery of compulsory costs which _must_ be passed on to consumers).       And just as the Germans are starting find out about they big solar investment, the costs for that kind of stimulus end up landing on the poor  (as the wealthy have their own income nets to pickup the trickles of wealth from State spending that the poor do not have the resources or knowledge set to create).

Thus is you want unequality poverty.  Stimulate by government spending - the costs get passed to the poor who cant avoid it,   the profits go to the rich who own the businesses and investments (business, proerties, capital, bonds).
And raise the minimum wage, those business who rely on producing cheap goods will go under, those who can pass on the cot will raise their prices.  The Rich can afford the cost, and will often be buying premium quality goods anyway in which minimum labour component is minor anyway.  Yet the poor, those that can still find employment at the higher rate, will again be forced to face rising costs.

Simple fundamentals.

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absolute rubbish....

 

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...absolute excellent post cowboy ...

 

I guess you won't be voting for a David Cunliffe led Labour party in 2014 , then ... Cunny's made it quite clear , in Michael Cullen style , he's going after the " rich " with massively increased taxes ... including a CGT ... and I'm predicting a hike up in the top personal income tax rate too ...

 

... but  look how that turned out last time , the " rich " used legal means ( trusts and negative gearing ) to side-step Cullen's policies , and the burden for increased welfare to " the poor " fell upon the middleclass ...

 

So , he introduced WFF in 2005 , to beat off the Don Brash challenge , and now the government is ever deeper in debt , funding the whole shebang of failed dopey income equalisation policies ....

 

regards

 

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It is hard , I'm sure , to remain a perma-bear in a world with so much positively breaking out , there's such a rich harvest of  " green shoots "  around that even the vegans are obese ....

 

.. .. 6 years of finding 10 gloomsterationalysing artices each week-day is an impressive effort , Bernard .... no more need for anti-hickeystamines for your good lady life ... darn , me best customer , bar none ...

 

The term " Hickeysterical " honours your valiant attempt to emotionally scuttle us financial " Pollyanna's " ..... wear it with pride , me old son : Pip Pip !

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Gummy

Cheers. Your friendly prods have been a pleasure. Thanks also to the regulars (the likes of vanderlei, Waymad, Christov) who have commented over the years. I've learned a lot and been forced to think again. 

I'll still be around on a Wednesday.

 

cheers

Bernard

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... are the rumours true Bernard , that you've accepted a contract with World Wrestling Federation ...

 

And that you're gonna appear in a lurid green mankini , billed as the " Great Kiwi Crusher " ....

 

... and part of the pre-fight act is for you to quote and to deride excerpts from Alan Greenspan's book .... and to pour scorn upon the American dream ?

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To be punctuated with long oooohs., aaaaahs, snorts, a roidal glaze in the eyes, culminating in a fergitaboutit..!

The Macho Man himself would be bamboozled by Bernard the Destroyer of Worlds / Bringer of the Nimbus.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=glW9CCLKxv4&list=TLpKi0yLTb-n4

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Tapering, then eh, BH?

And on Friday the 13th too. 

Well done - it's damned hard keeping up a daily anything, let alone wrangle the obstropulous types that infest this august publication.  And that's just the authors :)

 

Look forward to Wednesdays...

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Yesireebob...Bernard, what a histography it would make....the big calls, the agony of  the almost, delivered to a cast of thousands.

 Some good , some bad , some funny ,some sad, but you delivered with relentless enthusiasm on matters of impending doom .

  As a  byproduct of your efforts has  also built a network of social commentators  who remain to this day.........

 Love my Friday's Top Ten...! it has been the stuff of memories to savor, thanks to you Bernard...Big B...The Hickster...Darthickey ....etc.    

And so It's Friday.....Yay....!!!...see you on Wednesday !!

Here's one for the old dog......!

 

An old German Shepherd starts chasing rabbits and before long, discovers that he's lost. Wandering about, he notices a panther heading rapidly in his direction with the intention of having lunch.          The old German Shepherd thinks, "Oh, oh! I'm in deep shit now!"                   Noticing some bones on the ground close by, he immediately settles down to chew on the bones with his back to the approaching cat. Just as the panther is about to leap, the old German Shepherd exclaims loudly,            "Boy, that was one delicious panther! I wonder, if there are any more around here?"                            Hearing this, the young panther halts his attack in mid-strike, a look of terror comes over him and he slinks away into the trees.               "Whew!," says the panther, "That was close! That old German Shepherd nearly had me!"                 Meanwhile, a squirrel who had been watching the whole scene from a nearby tree, figures he can put this knowledge to good use and trade it for protection from the panther. So, off he goes.                The squirrel soon catches up with the panther, spills the beans and strikes a deal for himself with the panther.                  The young panther is furious at being made a fool of and says, "Here, squirrel, hop on my back and see what's going to happen to that conniving canine!"                 Now, the old German Shepherd sees the panther coming with the squirrel on his back and thinks, "What am I going to do now?," but instead of running, the dog sits down with his back to his attackers, pretending he hasn't seen them yet, and just when they get close enough to hear, the old German Shepherd says...                        "Where's that  bloody squirrel got to ? I sent him off an hour ago to bring me another panther!"                           Moral of this story...                            Don't mess with the old dogs... Age and skill will always overcome youth and treachery!  

 

            Bull Shit and brilliance only come with age and experience.

                                                                                                                      

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Why is an ultimate cage fighter wearing a Hello Kitty on his crotch ...

 

... it's not a pussy is it ?

 

You never can tell in the orient ..  .maybe they're inscrutiballs ...

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Sorry Christov, but oddly the biggest joke of the day is on the poor Christchurch dogs who are desperately over rated to pay over the odds, for the monkeys, riding on their backs.

Now that bitch is a winner, against all odds.

I do like to bitch, but then I always did.

Now where can I get a position like that, Top dog.

Bent over, screwed over, done over like these poor dogs dinners and still he comes up smiling and out, on top. 

Who is the joke on.

Christchurch. That is who.

Pick the bones out of that.

It will give you something to chew over.

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AE that describes whats wrong with the  whole NZ economic pot.

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Thank you Bernard for six years of effort.

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Leadership changes.

 

Appears to be working for Labour, National's turn next?

 

http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/5167-new-zealand-voting-intention-sep…

 

But for some reasong not being covered by interest dot co.

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There's a flip side to that poll , Colin , which is that Labour do better when no one is in charge !

 

... now , I'll concede , David Cunliffe will probably eventually be selected leader .... against my pick , Jonesy . But there's a large number ( 18 ) of his colleagues who can't abide him .... and a large % of the public who will never warm to Cunny ...he's  just too smug , too arrogant & self-assured for us ...

 

Pick yer leader , guys , and watch those poll results reverse ( as if Roy Morgan have alot of credibility , anyway ) ...

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I was actually noting the National Party's downward slide more than the small gain to Labour.

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... fair point ... these polls do appear to flop around from month to month ...

 

The 5.5 % divergence seems large ...

 

... no Labour leader is better than any one , or three .... perhaps they should go one up on the Greens and have three leaders : a man / a woman / a gay ( either sex or transgender ) ...

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Not sure that I would be that reassured by your analysis if I was a member of the National Party's caucus.

 

Some members may be considering the direction of their future careers.

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National's trend since the last election, down. and consistantly lower this term than last....sure I expect a blip back up next time....ignore the noise...

Assets sales got its % of signitures, first asset sale wont have made mom and pops much....changing the RMA not wanted....

Its for JK to lose and I think he's doing a grand job of achieving that. He and BE seem to think getting to surplus in 2014 is their ticket back in....dont see it myself....

regards

 

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National's trend since the last election, down. and consistantly lower this term than last....sure I expect a blip back up next time....ignore the noise...

Assets sales got its % of signitures, first asset sale wont have made mom and pops much....changing the RMA not wanted....

Its for JK to lose and I think he's doing a grand job of achieving that. He and BE seem to think getting to surplus in 2014 is their ticket back in....dont see it myself....

regards

 

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National's trend since the last election, down. and consistantly lower this term than last....sure I expect a blip back up next time....ignore the noise...

Assets sales got its % of signitures, first asset sale wont have made mom and pops much....changing the RMA not wanted....

Its for JK to lose and I think he's doing a grand job of achieving that. He and BE seem to think getting to surplus in 2014 is their ticket back in....dont see it myself....

regards

 

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Indeed...NZF up a bit....lets assume that National is losing some votes...that looks fairly certain....The Maori party's support of National has spawned mana, a pretty left wing collection of well, hard core left.  So can the maori party afford to support National again? cant see it myself....a few MP votes lost there.

So those lost votes probably going to NZF and some to Labour....but Labour's vote is static while greens has gained....so a bleed to the laft and then the harder left....

Looking at Peter Dunne he seems less right wingish shall we say......plans to be in with Labour next year maybe....

National is looking rather uh lonely...got banksie, big advantage that...

Asset referendum forced before the election...by that time National will have had to set its election platform. What a slap no more asset sales would be a few months from the election...what a risk to continue with that agenda....

regards

 

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GBH. Did you know a large % of the public who will never warm to JonhKey ...he's  just too smug , too arrogant & self-assured for us ?

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 ..and Cunnliffe is a nice self effacing good guy in contrast right ?

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Don't think Vanderlei was saying that Grant A....but yes, less of an asshole, less of the Corporate agenda,less of the bulldozer attitiude Key has instilled in those who want to perform for him.

 Case point Joyce, Collins , Brownlie, and that little asslicker from Tauranga....each involvoved in a weekly competition to see if they can generate their own Smug Halo.

Grant people are just sick to the eyeballs with the" leave it to the Market", while John Boy and cronies are the F*%king Market.

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We will disagree christov so no point debating that,,,but obviously you must know him personally to say it with such venmon, I don't. 

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I guess it's not so much a question of which leader you like the most , Key or Cunliffe , but rather , which one you dislike less than the other ...

 

... for me , Cunny combines the worst two faces of a less attractive personality , and less desirable policies ...

 

But I can't remember a government of whom i thought , " I really like this team 100 % . they can do no wrong " .... never happened , probably never will ... and at the moment , for all their faults , the Gnats offer a better flavoured " rat sandwich " than NZ Labour & the Greens do ....

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I guess we have to reply upon the opinions then of those that know them best ?

 

http://www.kiwiblog.co.nz/2013/09/garner_on_the_race.html

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Grant A... Duncan " Doughnuts "Garner has his own little axe to grind with Cunliffe , so his reaction is not surprising and reflects the level of Journalistic integrity you'd expect from a guy that should be working rumour rags.....not to mention he got his ass handed to him in the vote last week ....i hear telll from those in the know, off camera he didn't take it well...not well at all.... hey but it's all on the doughnut right.

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...... it's Russel Norman I feel sorry for , Count .... imagine this , you're at home , peacefully smoking your tofu pipe , making your ear-wax candles , bagging your toilet methane to run the oven , rejoicing in your tranquility ... when suddenly a mob of JAFA's led by David Cunliffe come trampling all over your carefully tended watermelon patch ...

 

Just one year out from the harvest , you gotcha melons all fat and juicy , ready to roll out infront of the electorate .... and the Auckland village stompers come in and squish all over your crop ....

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Now that's  more like it GBH.......loved the bagged methane concept, one I 'd certainly like to share.

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just like JK you mean?

wow, Cunny is assured PM then.

regards

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.. the problem for Cunny is that it's not just a large % of voters who dislike him , 18 of his own Labour party MPs can't abide the guy either ... that's a sizeable faction ...

 

Betcha there aren't that many within the Gnats who depise their own leader , the Jolly Kid ...

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I think your guessing on the % of voters....show us the data?  Roy Morgan poll, Nats down.....left vote up,  18 MPs slash their own throats?...bet not.

Sure 18 MPs dislike him, 18 pieces of history.......no one else has such a good chance to win....so not surprising you are attcking him is it....

and yes I expect a new top rate of tax is coming.....50% or more...no one else has money these days....CGT, yep.....2014 or 2017...its still being pushed, its coming the only Q is when.  The left's polling cant have indicated its a vote loser, home excluded so no worries to the likely Labour voter and in fact the Greens are 15%....

Looks like most dont wants the RMA gone, another NAT rout in the making....

regards

 

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But think a little further ahead to a Judith Collin's led National Party - could it be a different story?

 

The relevant emotions may be a little different to 'despising'.

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Judith Collins would be an excellent choice , because of her emotions : she's looked at life from both sides now , from win and lose , and still somehow , she doesn't know life at all ....

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Succint comment Gummy, definitely succint.

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Roy Morgan are considered one of the more accurate polls, but still not hugely accurate- I reckoned at the time that their poll 6 weeks ago that had National on 51% (and the publicity from that stirred up a few people round here) was a bit of an outlier. 

I know John Key has been claiming that National's internal polling has them on 49%. Personally, I think if they really believe that, then they may be in for a bit of a shock.

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Look at the trend......14 months out and its been going against National since the election...I see no reason why thats going to reverse.

regards

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#6 NZ super fund

Great to see that our fund is doing so well.  Least we get too comfortable however, compare its $22b shared over 4.5 m population with Norways $1.25T for a 5m population.  That is $4900 per head c.f. $250,000 per head.  I imagine that if Key had that sort of dosh within the govt's reach he would be busting his neck to somehow weadle it out of public hands.

9% longterm rate of return is certainly better than the rate that the government borrows at, so why did they stop contributing?

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http://www.smh.com.au/business/property/chinese-buying-sydney-homes-at-…

Australia having issues with the number of houses being sold to chinese buyers - same story different country

 

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Sorry to see you giving up writing the Top Ten - except on Wednesdays.  But all good things must come to an end.  All the best Bernard.

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Tell me fellow bloggers ( and bloggeresses ) , what song or tune do you associate with each of the three Labour leader candidates ? .... Gummy will kick things off with his 3 picks ...

 

... for that little monkee Grant Robertson , " Daydream Believer " seems appropriate ... and not just because of the line about a homecoming queen , but that does help ...

 

Shane Jones ? .... easy peasy that one , gotta be ACDC's " Big Balls " ....

 

... and David Cunliffe ... an obvious selection methinks , Carol King's " You're So Vain " ....

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Please help make or lives easy.

 

Links?

 

And to keep some balance, your suggestions for JK and JC?

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... sadly , Colin , the Gummster is computer illiterate , unable to have any degree of success in doing links ...

 

For the Gnats : Wild Bill scores Ennio Morriconi's " The good , the bad , and the ugly . " ...

 

Jolly Kid inspires me to think of " the chicken dance " ... as performed embarassingly by any drunk or drugged Ozzie athletes at the Olympic's swimming pool .. ..

 

.. and for JC , Helen Reddy's " I am woman " .... although that was also my second pick for Grant Robbo ...

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 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g23GiivXC78

 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nU615FaODCg

 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b6UAYGxiRwU

 

.... for Jonesy , the man , booyah ! .... Robbo ... and Carly Simon's excellent rendition of " Cunny stop kissing that Mirror " ... enjoy !

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Always have time for what Benard's thinking.

 

Gummy: "... and to pour scorn upon the American dream ?"  As Geoge Carlin said, "Anyone who believes in the American Dream is asleep."

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