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Bernard's Top 10: Is China landing hard? How the young languish while the old benefit; Winston wants expanded Waiheke Gold Card subsidy; Water wars; Dilbert

Bernard's Top 10: Is China landing hard? How the young languish while the old benefit; Winston wants expanded Waiheke Gold Card subsidy; Water wars; Dilbert

Here's my Top 10 items from around the Internet over the last week or so. As always, we welcome your additions in the comments below or via email to bernard.hickey@interest.co.nz

See all previous Top 10s here.

My must reads are #2 from Vice on the business of tracking cookies and health information and #6 from the FT on Britain's growing wealth chasm between the young losers and the old winners.

1. What's really going on in China's economy? - The short answer is not many people know. In fact a single conclusion may be unknowable, given the sheer size and diveristy of China's economy, which of course is the dominant driver in the Australasian economic outlook.

It obviously matters, which explains why there are so many predictions of boom or gloom, neither of which have been wholly accurate.

But something is going on. House prices are definitely falling. Developers are struggling to roll over loans. Steel, iron ore and coal prices have fallen as steel demand has fallen.

But is it enough to say China's economy has stopped growing is nearing some sort of crisis?

It's hard to say conclusively, but this video discussion from a bunch of experts who have spent much time on the ground there is illuminating.

There's one bear and one more optimistic view. It's a fascinating watch. Anne Stevenson Yang speaks first and her view that China has stopped growing and is on the brink of a debt crisis is well argued and backed up with plenty of anecdote and data.

2. The problem with tracking  - This Motherboard/Vice piece on how information about health searches on google is passed back to third parties is a good deep look at the tracking economy.

You might want to be careful before searching about some disease you think you might have. In the United States at least, a bank, insurer or lawyer might work out it's you.

Thus, Libert has discovered that the vast majority of health sites, from the for-profit WebMD.com to the government-run CDC.gov, are loaded with tracking elements that are sending records of your health inquiries to the likes of web giants like Google, Facebook, and Pinterest, and data brokers like Experian and Acxiom.

From there, it becomes relatively easy for the companies receiving the requests, many of which are collecting other kinds of data (in cookies, say) about your browsing as well, to identify you and your illness. That URL, or URI, which very clearly contains the disease being searched for, is broadcast to Google, Twitter, and Facebook, along with your computer’s IP address and other identifying information.

3. The disappeared in Chicago - This Guardian US investigation showing how Chicago's Police Department uses miltiary style tactics and compounds to detain people without charge for hours on end is an eye opener.

Unlike a precinct, no one taken to Homan Square is said to be booked. Witnesses, suspects or other Chicagoans who end up inside do not appear to have a public, searchable record entered into a database indicating where they are, as happens when someone is booked at a precinct. Lawyers and relatives insist there is no way of finding their whereabouts. Those lawyers who have attempted to gain access to Homan Square are most often turned away, even as their clients remain in custody inside.

“It’s sort of an open secret among attorneys that regularly make police station visits, this place – if you can’t find a client in the system, odds are they’re there,” said Chicago lawyer Julia Bartmes.

4. The water problem - This long New Yorker piece on a 'Thirsty, violent world' is well worth a read.

Feeding a planet with nine billion residents will require at least fifty per cent more water in 2050 than we use today. It is hard to see where that water will come from. Half of the planet already lives in urban areas, and that number will increase along with the pressure to supply clean water.

“Unfortunately, the world has not really woken up to the reality of what we are going to face, in terms of the crises, as far as water is concerned,” Rajendra Pachauri, the chairman of the International Panel on Climate Change, said at a conference on water security earlier this month. “If you look at agricultural products, if you look at animal protein, the demand for which is growing—that’s highly water intensive. At the same time, on the supply side, there are going to be several constraints. Firstly because there are going to be profound changes in the water cycle due to climate change.”

5. Why low oil prices won't harm sales of electric cars - Here's the Economists' view on this.

There's a damning with faint praise feel about it, but it's worth nonetheless. I'm less pessimistic on the ability of new technology and production systems to lower battery costs. Elon Musk has a plan.

Over time the cost of the vehicles will be far more influential than the oil price. The battery in a Nissan Leaf, the world’s bestselling electric car, accounts for half the selling price. Only a breakthrough in battery chemistry or another technology, such a regenerative braking, can bring costs down significantly and make electric cars a realistic mass-market prospect. And the lower the battery cost, the less sensitive the payback period is to fuel prices. Electric motoring has many drawbacks. Overcoming a lack of infrastructure and establishing a second-hand market (batteries degrade over time reducing range and are pricey to replace) are still to be resolved. Electric cars may not catch on but low fuel prices will not be the reason.

6. No country for young men - The FT's Chris Giles and Sarah O'Connor report the young in Britain have done much worse than the old over the last 35 years or so when their incomes and wealth are measured.

Britain’s young adults, who for much of the 20th century enjoyed living standards well above average, have been displaced by the rise of the comfortably-off pensioner in the most dramatic generational change in decades.

Average twentysomethings have seen their living standards slip from a position of comparative affluence to well below par over the past 35 years as average pensioners have enjoyed a rapid rise up the national league tables of incomes, according to Financial Times research.

The findings based on official incomes data on over 800,000 households from over 50 years of income distribution statistics held at the UK Data Service, highlight the disunity between the generations in the UK.

They come as David Cameron intensifies his efforts to woo older voters, pledging to protect pensioner benefits costing billions from any cuts if he wins the May election. It was right to preserve benefits for those that “made this the great country it is today”, he said on Monday, as he promised to preserve free bus passes, free television licences and the winter fuel payment for older people. His pledge suggests the winning streak could continue for those born in the 1940s and 1950s at the expense of those born in the 1980s and 1990s.

7. More Waiheke ferry subsidies - Further to the debate about more subsidies for the old at the expense of the young, Winston Peters is on the warpath to extend the current Gold Card subsidy for the Fullers ferry to Waiheke. A moratorium in 2010 has stopped the new ferry operator, Explore, from getting subsidies for Gold Card users.

Explore has taken to giving away tickets to Gold Card holders after 9 am in the hope the pressure on the Government will be enough to force a reversal of the moratorium. The annual subsidy is currently costing taxpayers under the age of 65 about NZ$1.5 million a year.

Here's Winston in Parliament (He even brings in the foreign owner angle....):

Did Auckland Minister Nikki Kaye and Minister for Senior Citizens Maggie Barry alert him and his colleagues that the SuperGold Card Waiheke ferry funding will not cost the taxpayer any more than the current $1.5 million; if so, is the Government comfortable with protecting a foreign monopoly against a legitimate New Zealand competitor who thought the review was going to be completed in 2014?

8. 'Tear up the social contract' - It's not an issue at the moment because the young are too clueless and busy facebooking each other to vote, but at some point they'll work it out and will wreak vengeance on the old.

Some in Britain worry about this:

Angus Hanton, co-founder of the Intergenerational Foundation, said if the government did not take action to redistribute resources and benefits more fairly across age groups, “young people may want to tear up the social contract between generations”.

9. What would that look like? - How would the young New Zealanders of today turn around and tear up the current social contract come 2040?

They'd go first to the current guarantee around the NZ Superannuation Payment, which is that the rate for a couple must be at least 66% of the average wage. That means NZ Super rises much faster than other benefits, which are based on CPI inflation, and median wages generally.

This week, for example, Anne Tolley quietly announced that NZ Superannuation payments would rise by 2% from April 1 while other benefits (for everyone under 65) would rise just 0.5% because of low inflation.

Michael Littlewood looks here at the options for means testing and a later retirement age.

10. Totally John Oliver makes fun of how tobacco companies are making a killing outside of the United States. It would be funny if the facts weren't so painful.

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28 Comments

Re Hard Landing in China  . We dont have a clue .

 Here's an analogy

Have you ever noticed when you are on the ground , how a  small Cessna having a bad landing is obviuos to even those on the ground ?

But a monstrous 747 Jumbo always seems to land gently ?

Its really only the passengers who feel how good or bad it is , and I reckon we dont really know anything about the reality inside  China .

From the outside China looks like a 747 landing  , but only those inside really know what its like

The point is , the Chinese polly's are masters of deception and you will never know the whole truth

During the 1950's to 1980's they  hoodwinked the West into believing they were a poor backward country of hapless peasants , who brutally executed people for being capitalists , and desperately needed Western technolgy transfers , etc .

The reality was they were quite industrially advanced ,in steel production , cemnet production , al types of  manufacturing , ship-building , train building ,  armaments , and agriculture ,  and able through their  Proxies to defeat the US in war in both Korea and Vietnam , they organised wars in Southern Africa ( Rhodesia ) and East Africa (Mozambique) and west Africa ( Angola )  , and built sophisticated railways hydrelectric dams and mines all over Africa .

The truth could not be further away from the intended perception .

 

 

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If your main customer suddenly starts buying less stuff its a problem, and I think that the rationale behind it is less important then the fact that they have cut back on purchases.  Especially if you have just built a new plant to cope with the extra demand.  They could be broke or they could be producing their own.  I think they've overheated and possibly cooked the engine, which could take some time to repair, but it could be that they just don't like us and are taking their business elsewhere.  Either way, it's hard to see why they would suddenly start buying our stuff again, which is the BIG question.

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The chinese engine was there to do one thing, produce goods for "us" and thus employ the peasants migrating en mass into the cities to stop their society exploding.  When in 2009 we stopped buying because we were broke the engine overheated, I think the entire thing has been a con since then. I mean when china has supposed  to be growing at 10% per annum for the last 6 years just where is that almost doubling (70/10% = doubling in 7 years) been going?

So really we have,

The EU as a basket case just waiing for grexit,

japan is still toast and has been for 20~30 years

USA has a recovery somewhat powered by shale oil which doesnt look too hot right now.

China the last big "block" looks ready to come un-stuck big time.  So no I dont think its a bif Q, its a no.

meanwhile NZers are continuing on a house buying spree, no cares what so ever, except the bankers who are now almost panicking, yes bound to end well.

 

 

 

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LOL the bankers are panicking, I just had an image of rats scurrying around in a house on fire.

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I dont think the future will be kind to them.

 

 

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#9 my kids and their friends get it enough, from climate change to finances, just how they are being screwed over.  The Q is how long for the apathy to give way to anger. 

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He who has the gold makes the rules, ref. Greece.  It wont be the public that changes the system it will be the creditors.  NZ still has a long way to go yet, but its hard to imagine a future without some form of default, whether it is austerity, haircuts, inflation, hard default or a combination remains to be seen. 

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A few know; but what can they do?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X0gtzHJphVg

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#2 Web-Tracking-Cookies

 

Recently I had occasion to examine the number of clandestine cookies deposited on my computer by various websites. Considering I have my browser settings set to disallow un-certificated cookies I was staggered to find over 3000 tracking cookies

 

Cleared them all out. Then did a re-visit to interest.co.nz. Then checked the number of cookies again. Lo-and-behold. More than 100 new tracking-cookies from interest.co.nz

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That and their huge ads framed around the page always seem to be able to avoid my blocker that works almost everywhere else.

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I actually dont mind that one. 

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You must remember if you're not paying for something then you're the product not the customer.

 

 

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Very well put!

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Cookies are not the only tracking vector. You also need to look at pixel beacons, rgb image cached beacons, your browsers configuration, screen resolution, platform etc.

 

Interest.co has around 5-10 trackers per page, mostly using beacons.

 

I don't run an ad blocker, but have flash disabled. Most of the ads on interest.co are flash based so I never see them. I run ghostery to block trackers, and only allow cookies until quit.

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noponies - I also use ghostery. I also use https everywhere

 

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Re China.

 

Went shopping for new clothes for Spring Festival with my wife a couple of weeks ago, here in Xi'an. We spent several days traipsing around various shopping malls.

 

She talked to the mall staff manning the stores, and they said that business was quiet now compared to this time last year. Sometimes we didn't see many people in the malls at all. The top-level luxury ones were doing okay, but the mid-level ones had softening demand.

 

Another ancedotal observation is to look at the city at night -- the number of buildings that you see, versus the number that actually have lights on in their apartments. It really shows how much construction overshoot there is at the moment... and somebody has to pay for it all.

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My wife tried to buy some new jeans, but with the docksider strike there were none in her size.

  The USA has problems, I talked to alocal who brought a hose in 2009, in 2005 it sold for 1.2 mil, he got it in 2009 for 790k. He wants to sell it best offer 500k.

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#6.  Why would young people just starting out in their earning careers expect to have a higher standard of living than people who've been working for upwards of forty years?  Why is it "unfair" that people who have worked for a long time have more wealth than people who haven't? 

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Median income for 20-25 have dropped while median income for 65-70 has gone up. 

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So?  That's not in itself evidence of unfairness.  One might equally celebrate the correction of the disgraceful state of affairs under which people who had worked all their lives were less well off than people who'd barely started work.

 

Frankly I think Bernard is being dangerously irresponsible in continually encouraging young people to think that they are the victims of unfairness and it's all older people's fault.  New Zealand's older people are actually a b-y good deal compared to many countries' - they cost less, and they work more. 

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#4 That would be Pauchauri - the former Chariman of the IPCC. Doing a Strauss Kahn.

 

http://m.thehindu.com/news/cities/Delhi/another-exteri-staff-speaks-up-…

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/6339dc50-bc16-11e4-b6ec-00144feab7de.htm…

"In the petition, he also described the affair as a “conspiracy” by “vested interests,” seeking to “destroy (his) reputation, standing goodwill and repute”. He has filed his own police complaint accusing unknown persons of hacking his computer."

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and the "shoot the messenger" achieves what?

Because that is all he is. 

Of course as a comparison,

It seems Mr Soon is/was a gun for hire, selling mis-information on demand paid for by well known denier organisations.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/02/23/armageddon-for-climate-change-deniers.html

So on teh one hand we have someone who maybe was a bit of a womaniser, which should have no bearing on his work, V Soon who wrote denier papers on demand and didnt disclose his funding, which bears directly on his work.  Now if he had declared his funding there would be no huge issue on that ground, but he didnt.

 

 

 

 

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Gee you can't have much faith in the peer review process.

 

Here is what one of the authors had to say on the matter:

"There was a disclosure, all in full accordance with the journal’s policies. None of us were offered nor did any of us take any form of consideration for writing the paper. Suppose instead the counterfactual, that we, for instance, accepted a grant from Greenpeace or Government. Would that make our central finding—that climate models are poor—true or false? Do you often write stories asking whether authors filled out intra-journal paperwork correctly? How many have you written?"

 

You were saying something about shooting the messenger? The author is pretty clear about funding, when asked by a "journalist",  in the quote above isn't he?

 

http://wmbriggs.com/post/15337/

 

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if you had cash is it safer in a house or in a bank, if there is a housing meltdown?

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Housing melt down or bank collapse, which comes first?

I'd suggest neither is safe.

 

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Bernard - please don't link to Financial Times articles... they are behind a paywall and we cannot view them. Very frustrating as I am not subscribing to it (or getting suckered by the 3 free per month, what a joke)

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He who has the gold makes the principles, ref. Greece. It wont be general society that progressions the framework it will be the leasers.how to enable whatsapp calling feature NZ still has far to go yet, yet its difficult to envision a future without some manifestation of default, whether it is starkness, hair styles, swelling, hard default or a blend stays to be seen.

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